China＇s Economic Prospects and Sino-US Economic Relations

A better comprehension of the mixed sentiment in the rest of world towards the rapid rise of the Chinese economy will depend on the understanding of some key features of the Chinese economy, such as those associated with its size, structure and institution. To further sustain its high growth, China is facing more challenges than it has encountered in the past 2 decades, including a gamut of material constraints. Although polices and technological progress might alleviate many of these constraints, the ultimate solution will still lie in continued institutional reform. China's recent move towards a more flexible exchange rate regime is in line with its broad reform and in accordance with the progress of its development. However, such a move will have limited immediate effects on the prodigious US trade deficit, which itself is a problem rooted in the flawed international reserve system, far beyond a Sino‐US trade issue. Edited by Xiaoming Feng     

is China＇s Economic Growth Extraordinary or Mediocre？ The Role of the Exchange Rate

Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchange rate matching the demands of economic development, we offer some plausible explanations for the variations in the evaluation results. The significant gaps between different economic performance evaluation results before the mid-1990s, and evidence from international comparisons of factor productivity indicate that the quality of economic growth in China is different from that of other economies. Evaluation of economic development should take into account both quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement. From this perspective, evaluation results indicate qualitative improvement in the Chinese economy after the mid-1990s.     

A Study of Sustainable Development of China＇s State-Level Economic and Technological Development Zones

State-level economic and technological development zones (ETDZs) are products of China‘s reform and opening-up policies and a new engine of growth for the Chinese economy. They have made tremendous contributions to the development of the Chinese economy. However,some problems have emerged in the course of this progress and new challenges are still lying ahead. Sustainable development is possible only when the strategy and objectives of development are adjusted, when the integrated investment environment is optimized, when industries are upgraded, when technical innovations are made, when independent innovation capabilities are lifted, when the mode of economic growth is changed, and when innovations are made in government management.     

Effectiveness and Effects of China＇s Capital Controls

Reductions in barriers to global trade have not been accompanied by a widespread loosening of restrictions on international flows of capital, especially in China. This study shows that China has some of the most restrictive controls and uses them effectively to bias flows of cross-border capital heavily in favor of foreign direct investment (FDI) and limit flows of portfolio and bank assets and liabilities, as well as reducing capital flow volatility. China is now facing pressure to speed up its opening to all forms of cross border capital. But since China is still struggling to strengthen its domestic financial structure, capital account liberalization would expose it to considerable risks and potentially high costs.     

China＇s Sustained Economic Growth： Do Direct R＆D Spillovers Matter？

Using data from 1986-2005, the present paper estimates the impact of direct knowledge spilled over from G-7 countries on China＇s economy. We use telephone line penetration rates andpersonnel flows to estimate the direct spillover effect. Our results show that direct knowledge spillovers through telecommunication networks and personnelflows are important components of international R＆D spillovers in China. These direct channels of spillover effectively accelerate China＇s economic growth. Therefore, China should invest more in human capital and in its telecommunication network to enhance the absorptive capacity of direct R＆D spillovers, and to increase communication with other nations, in particular the USA and Japan. More subsidies to domestic R＆D research and purchase of intermediate goods will help to raise China＇s R＆D intensity.     

Analysis of China＇s Renewable Energy Development under the Current Economic and Technical Circumstances

At present, the development of renewable energy relies mainly on government support. The government invests in a considerable number of projects to improve public welfare and to assist in poverty relief If China is to replace fossil fuels on a large scale with renewable energy sources, the production costs and prices of renewable energy must be brought down. All countries are facing the challenge of moving to a more secure and low-carbon energy system without weakening economic and social development. In this regard, China is facing an even greater challenge in terms of economic cost, as cheap coal remains the main energy form. Technical innovation and industrialization in the area of renewable energy is an important means of lowering cost. China is in for a period of high-speed development of its economy and the rising demand for energy is irreversible. If the technical progress and development speed of renewable energy lags behind the growth in demand, it will be difficult to realize the improvement of its energy structure.     

China＇s Labor Transition and the Future of China＇s Rural Wages and Employment

This paper contributes to the assessment of China＇s rural labor markets. According to our data, the increase in off-farm employment that China experienced during the 1980s and 1990s continued during the 2000s. Our analysis shows that migration has become the most prevalent off-farm activity, although the destination of migrants is shifting from outside of one＇s province to destinations closer to home. The present paperfinds that large shares of male and female individuals, especially those under 40 years, are working off the farm. These findings represent an important contribution to the labor economics field. First, the results of the present paper reveal that the labor transition from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector for key segments of China＇s rural labor force is nearly complete. Second, although a large share of China ＂s rural labor force work in agriculture, most of these workers are older men and women （and likely would not be willing to take low-wage, labor-intensive jobs）. Third, the rising unskilled wage rate in China is partially a result of the tightening of the labor force in the young age cohorts. Finally, due to factors associated with the one child policy and other demographic transition forces, successive age cohorts will continue to fall in absolute number in the coming decade. Assuming China＇s growth continues, we expect to see further wage increases since it will take higher wages to coax more workers to work off the farm.     

全球金融危机背景下我国服务业的发展研究

尽管全球金融危机给我国服务业发展带来不利的影响,但是,我们还是要大力发展服务业,这既有助于达到保增长、促就业的目标,又有助于优化产业结构、转变经济发展方式。服务业的发展策略是优先发展中小服务业企业、生产性服务业、关系到民生的服务业,加大服务业的开放力度,实施人才兴业战略。     

后金融危机时代我国经济的战略选择

全球性金融危机自产生以来,各国政府纷纷采取了积极的救市措施,这些措施,在一定程度上起到了刺激经济的作用。它的发生、发展、影响、应对、恢复等所有的问题,都是需要严谨的分析和总结的。本文旨在分析后金融危机时期的形势和探讨我国经济战略选择问题。     

后金融危机时期中国扩大就业的财政政策选择

金融危机呼啸而来,无情地冲击着本就困难的就业市场,2010年就业状况更为严峻。通过考察发达国家在促进就业方面的成功经验,结合经济全球化背景下金融危机所致的日趋严峻的中国就业形势,后金融危机时代下我国运用积极财政政策来扩大就业应当出台更加有力的扩大国内需求措施,促进经济平稳较快增长和扩大就业;进一步优化财政投资结构,正确运用财政政策引导产业升级;应结合国情状况合理选择运用政府财政支出政策和减税政策。     

经济复苏中的消费扩大与就业促进

国际金融危机爆发后欧美一些国家的负债消费模式正在发生重大改变,我国实现经济全面复苏将更有赖于扩大内需并着眼于消费的全面启动与持续扩大。就业、收入、消费存在着内在的联系,促进就业进而提高劳动者收入应成为未来宏观经济政策的优先选择。应在城乡统筹发展和区域协调发展、支持中小企业发展和个人创业、加大人力资本投资与城乡社会保障体系建设等方面做出努力。     

Impact of Global Financial Crises on the Indonesian Economy： An Input-Output Analysis

The debt crisis in the European Union （EU） and the U.S. has significant potential impact on the economy of Indonesia. U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008 has a strong impact on Indonesian economy, that Indonesia＇s gross domestic product （GDP） slowed down to below 5% during 2009. Until October 2012, Indonesia＇s export growth is starting to grow negatively on some sectors when the crises in the EU and the U.S. have started or overall grew by -6%. Although the slowdown does not occur in all sectors, the impact spreads to other sectors as the existence of industrial linkage among sectors. The objective of the study is to look at the impact on the sector level on various indicators such as GDP （value added） and employment. Input-output analysis will be used in the simulation. Indonesia input-output table of 2005 is applied as the data base. The simulation results show that if exports decline occurs in the U.S., the economic growth will be -0.20%. Meanwhile, if it occurs in the EU, the growth of GDP will be -0.24%. If some Asian countries face the fall of demand of Indonesian export, GDP growth declines by 0.61%. The fall of exports demand from some Asian countries, EU countries and the U.S. will cause the GDP growth by -1.06%. The crisis occurring in both the US and the EU has decreased export demand from those countries and region including some Asian countries. The impact to employment seemed to be minimal, only -0.47% of total labour force.     

金融危机背景下农民工就业问题的三维模式研究

妥善应对全球金融危机给我国农民工就业市场带来的消极影响,应建立一套以政府为主体、城市社会为补充、兼之以农民工自身不断完善的三维对策。文章认为,政府方面应采取相关经济政策扶植中小企业,建立农民工就业信息服务网络,鼓励农民工回乡创业并为其提供相关培训,建立健全针对农民工的各种保障体系等;城市方面则应首先从心理上消除对农民工的身份歧视,帮助他们扩大社会关系网络;农民工自身则应转变就业观念,提高自身素质。     

对我国非正规就业的几点思考

非正规就业具有就业形式灵活、投资少的特点,我国城乡大量存在的私营和个体劳动者都属于非正规就业,此次金融危机对我国非正规就业的冲击较大,需要政府部门制定政策,变"堵"为"疏",促进非正规就业健康、有序的发展。     

美国金融危机影响下的中国就业问题研究

美国次贷危机引发的金融危机使全球的经济发展遭遇了一场重创。在全球经济一体化的背景下,金融危机的迅速升级逐步波及全球的实体经济,各国的经济发展都受到一定的冲击,尤其是美国、欧元区和日本经济已全部陷入衰退,而作为新兴经济体的中国,经济发展增速也大幅放缓,对就业压力大的人口大国无疑是雪上加霜。本文主要探讨了金融危机影响下我国就业存在的问题,并提出相应的对策建议。