Price as a risk indicator

Ignorant consumers quite often face a risk when they purchase a brand of some commodity. Three types of risks are considered: financial risk, performance risk, and physical risk. It is attempted to quantify these risks using data fromConsumer Reports. Consumers may try to avoid these risks by buying high-priced brands, thus using price as a risk indicator. The major purpose of the paper is to investigate whether in fact price is a good risk indicator.

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Der Preis als Risiko-Indikator

Zusammenfassung Verbraucher haben häufig keine gute Kenntnis von der Qualität einer Produktmarke, die sie gerade kaufen wollen, sondern empfinden eher ein gewisses Risiko beim Kauf. Anhand von Daten aus der amerikanischen TestzeitschriftConsumer Reports der Jahre 1975 bis 1985 läßt sich abschätzen, daß ungefähr 1% der üblichen Konsumgüter nicht akzeptable Produkte sind. Für Konsumenten mag es rational sein, eine teurere Produktvariante zu kaufen, um dieses Risiko zu vermeiden. Der vorliegende Beitrag geht der Frage nach, ob das tatsächlich eine erfolgreiche Einkaufs-Strategie ist. Berücksichtigt werden dabei allerdings nur die objektiven Risiko-Komponenten wie funktionale oder gesundheitliche Risiken, denn für psycho-soziale Risiken gibt es keine Daten.Analysiert man diejenigen Marken, die inConsumer Reports als nicht akzeptable bewertet wurden, so zeigt sich, daß der Preis tatsächlich ein Risiko-Indikator sein kann — vorausgesetzt allerdings, die Konsumenten kennen diejenigen Produkte, bei denen es nicht-akzeptable Varianten gibt.Ein zweiter Ansatz besteht in der Analyse derjenigen Produktmerkmale, die inConsumer Reports zu der Teilbewertung sehr schlecht geführt haben und die einem Käufer vermutlich unliebsame Überraschungen bereiten werden. Daten für über 2,000 Produktvarianten und 13,500 (Teil-)Bewertungen aus der Zeit von 1978 bis 1980 zeigen, daß das Risiko, eine Marke mit mindestens einem Merkmal mit der Teilbewertung sehr schlecht zu erhalten, tatsächlich mit steigenden Preis abnimmt — wenn auch nicht sehr stark.

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Chr. Hjorth-Andersen is Associate Professor at the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Studiestraede 6, 1455 Copenhagen K, Denmark. Financial support from the Danish Council for Social Science Research is gratefully acknowledged. Programming assistance was ably provided by Timm Larsen and data collection by Kirsten Thune. The paper has benefited from comments from a number of colleagues as well as from two anonymous referees and the Editor.     

The mortuary as a source of injury data: progress towards a mortuary data guideline for fatal injury surveillance

To help bridge the obstacle of inadequate injury fatality data in low and medium income countries (LMICs) a simple cost effective system for mortuary surveillance of fatal injuries is being developed in consultation with the WHO. This will inform, direct and monitor injury prevention (IP) interventions and policies in LMICs. This article uses CDC's 'attributes of a successful surveillance system' to describe the process, the barriers and solutions in development of this mortuary data guideline. The consultative process utilised generated feedback from key stakeholders including forensic pathologists, Ministry of Health officials and injury prevention experts. An International Advisory Group was also convened to guide the guideline development. These assisted the adjustment of the proposed guideline to maximise flexibility, acceptability and stability; whilst minimising resource implications. Representativeness and the securing of government support perhaps remain the most significant challenges. Consultation with the advisory group and the wider stakeholders has been effective in developing a widely acceptable, user-friendly, low resource data form to gather useful data. Further strategies to overcome barriers need to be developed over the course of the pilot study and this should be done in consultation with the advisory group and stakeholders.     

Partner violence as a risk factor for mental health among women from communities in the Philippines,Egypt, Chile,and India

Although studies have documented the association between Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) and mental health, few have been done in developing countries. In this study, the association between IPV and mental health in women from different developing countries was established.

Women, 15 to 49 years old with at least one child 18 years old or younger, were randomly selected from communities in Chile, Egypt, India, and the Philippines (N = 3974). The Self Report questionnaire (SRQ) was used to assess mental health. Women with a score on the SRQ of 8 or more, or who reported ever attempting suicide, were classified as having poor mental health. Physical IPV was defined as being slapped, hit, kicked, beaten or threatened by a male partner during the past year. Psychological violence included being insulted or belittled, threatened or abandoned.

Between 22.5% (in Egypt) to 41% (in Chile) of participating women reported a score of eight or more on the SRQ. High scores on the SRQ were significantly associated with current physical and psychological IPV in the samples from all participating countries except Chile. Twelve percent of women in Chile, 2.6%, in Egypt, 7.5% in India and 1.6% in the Philippines reported attempting suicide. Suicide attempts were also associated with current physical IPV in the Philippines, Egypt, and India, and with psychological violence in Egypt and India.

IPV is a significant risk factor for poor mental health in these developing countries. Efforts to reduce IPV should be considered as part of a mental health program.     

Injury count model for quantification of risk of occupational injury

Reduction of risk of occupational injuries is one of the most challenging problems faced by industry. Assessing and comparing risks involved in different jobs is one of the important steps towards reducing injury risk. In this study, a comprehensive scheme is given for assessing and comparing injury risks with the development of injury count model, injury risk model and derived statistics. The hazards present in a worksystem and the nature of the job carried out by workers are perceived as important drivers of injury potential of a worksystem. A loglinear model is used to quantify injury counts and the event-tree approach with joint, marginal and conditional probabilities is used to quantify injury risk. A case study was carried out in an underground coalmine. Finally a number of indices are proposed for the case study mine to capture risk of injury in different jobs. The findings of this study will help in designing injury intervention strategies for the mine studied. The job-wise risk profiles will be used to prioritise the jobs for redesign. The absolute indices can be applied for benchmarking job-wise risks and the relative indices can be used for comparing job-wise risks across worksystems.     

Injury count model for quantification of risk of occupational injury

Reduction of risk of occupational injuries is one of the most challenging problems faced by industry. Assessing and comparing risks involved in different jobs is one of the important steps towards reducing injury risk. In this study, a comprehensive scheme is given for assessing and comparing injury risks with the development of injury count model, injury risk model and derived statistics. The hazards present in a work system and the nature of the job carried out by workers are perceived as important drivers of injury potential of a work system. A loglinear model is used to quantify injury counts and the event-tree approach with joint, marginal and conditional probabilities is used to quantify injury risk. A case study was carried out in an underground coal mine. Finally a number of indices are proposed for the case study mine to capture risk of injury in different jobs. The findings of this study will help in designing injury intervention strategies for the mine studied. The job-wise risk profiles will be used to prioritise the jobs for redesign. The absolute indices can be applied for benchmarking job-wise risks and the relative indices can be used for comparing job-wise risks across work systems.     

Operating leverage as a determinant of systematic risk

Since the development of the capital asset pricing model, a number of studies have examined the effect of a firm's operating leverage on its systematic risk. The essential conclusion of these studies is that operating leverage affects systematic risk through either the contribution margin or unit variable costs. In this paper, the models derived in previous research are refined and extended to demonstrate that, for either a single-product or multiproduct firm, the degree of operating leverage measures the full effect of a firm's operating leverage on its systematic risk. In addition, it is shown that a sales variability measure should also be an important differentiating factor among the systematic risk of common stocks. Thus, the results have important practical implications for financial managers when estimating project or divisional risk for investment decisions, and for security analysts when predicting the systematic risk of common stocks.     

Global strategy as a factor in Japanese success

This article argues that the use of globally integrated strategy provides an additional explanation for Japanese success. Furthermore, this explanation links directly to many of the accepted factors that result in competitive superiority for Japanese companies. The article elaborates on different aspects of global strategy and contrasts typical Japanese and American approaches, and provides some empirical evidence on these differences. Japanese companies' success in post-bubble reconstruction will require a reemphasis on such strategies.     

Balancing risk with virtual private networking during a pandemic

When the pandemic struck and teaching went online worldwide, universities had to make pressing decisions that balanced cybersecurity against other factors, including health and safety, usability, and cost. One such challenge Indiana University (IU) faced was how to accommodate the secure telecommunications needs of 130,000 faculty, staff, and students who would now be teaching, learning, doing research, and working from home. Some universities reflexively promoted virtual private network (VPN) use for all activities. Such an approach would have been unsustainable at IU, however, owing both to the licenses and resources needed for the sheer number of users and to the high-throughput applications on which they rely. Perhaps even worse, it would have increased the chances that the VPN would be unavailable during a critical incident or other situation in which secure communications must be guaranteed. Instead, IU launched an awareness campaign demonstrating exactly when VPN use is and isn’t needed. In addition, network staff employed a VPN feature called split tunneling to reduce the load. This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this approach and how IU made the decision to balance both sides of the risk equation to ensure the continued advancement of its mission throughout the pandemic.     

Foreign investment as a factor in Asian Pacific integration

The Asian Pacific countries do not only show unparalled growth dynamics, they are also in the process of growing ever closer together. There is already talk of the creation of a new economic bloc. The following article analyses private direct investment in the Asian Pacific area, an element in the economic integration of the region which has been paid little attention until now. This article is based on a study completed in November 1991 for the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs. The study has now been published in German and is available on request from the authors: Axel Borrmann and Rolf Jungnickel: Auslandsinvestitionen im asiatisch-pazifischen Integrationsprozess, HWWA-Report No. 102, Hamburg 1992.     

The European Monetary System as a factor of integration

Critics of the EMS claim that it has failed to realise the hopes aroused at the time of its inception; a convergence of economic policies, they maintain, has not been induced by fixed exchange rates. What is the true position with regard to the convergence of economic policies?     

Body scanning as a new anthropometric measurement tool for health‐risk assessment

The study explored the accuracy of body measurements gathered from trained observers employing a tape measure compared with those generated by the 3D body scanner. Tape measurements of body circumferences are routinely used for assessing future risk to health, as increased circumference of the waist vs. hip is associated with greater chronic disease rates later in life. Findings indicated that significant differences existed between circumference measurements calculated by the body scanner and those which were gathered from a tape measure. This research indicates that utilization of the body scanner as an anthropometric measurement tool for the assessment of health risk has tremendous benefits.     

Consumers as risk takers: Evidence from the film industry during the 1930s

This paper examines the risk environment of film consumption in the United States during the 1930s when moviegoing dwarfed all other paid-for leisure activities. We argue that the wide variability in the financial performance of films, reflecting the considerable risks that were involved in film production, can be interpreted as being mirrored in the risks incurred by consumers in the film consumption process. We further argue that production risk needs to be understood within the context of consumer risk. Using a dataset derived from the trade journal Variety, we examine the weekly fortunes of movies in first-run cinemas as consumers rapidly substitute movies that are currently on release for the promised pleasures of yet unseen movies. That expected utility was not always realised was commonplace, as was the pleasurable surprise that came with being thrilled by certain films. These are important results since, perhaps for the first time in modern society, they led to the emergence of the long right tail of consumer preferences for mass distributed goods.     

Corporate Social Responsibility as a Strategic Opportunity for Small Firms during Economic Crises

The aim of this study is to analyze if there is a direct causal relationship between small firms’ orientation toward corporate social responsibility and their competitive success, mediated by innovation and performance. A structural equation model has been applied to a sample of 758 small Spanish firms. The results indicate that, in times of economic crisis, socially responsible strategies are a determining factor in firms’ competitiveness. Pragmatic advice for practitioners derives from research results, considering that social responsibility represents an opportunity for small firms in the complex and turbulent time. The findings encourage small firms to manage operations responsibly as a guarantee of market success.