Empirical Tests of the Proxy Hypothesis

The proxy hypothesis states that the negative relationship between inflation and stock returns is spurious and really only proxies for the positive relationship between stock returns and real variables. Previous testes of the proxy hypothesis have used actual values instead of forecasted values for the real activity variable. Using only forecasted variables, our results do not support the proxy hypothesis.     

Managing Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets with Monetary Policy

We study the effect of a “leaning against the wind” monetary policy on asset price bubbles in a learning-to-forecast experiment, where prices are driven by the expectations of market participants. We find that a strong interest rate response is successful in preventing or deflating large price bubbles, while a weak response is not. Giving information about the interest rate changes and communicating the goal of the policy increases coordination of expectations and has a stabilizing effect. When the steady-state fundamental price is unknown and the interest rate rule is based on a proxy instead, the policy is less effective.     

The Structure of Chinese Urban Land Prices: Estimates from Benchmark Land Price Data

Taking the recent benchmark land prices published by the Chinese city governments, the paper estimates commercial and residential land price curves of Chinese cities using cross-sectional data, controlling for urban population size and income level. The urban land leasing price–distance relationship is estimated based on the argument that monocentric urban structure is representative for Chinese cities. Both population size and income level are found to positively affect urban land price and price–distance gradients. Commercial land prices are higher than residential land prices except in suburbs or outer central urban areas, where the land prices of different uses converge. In most situations, commercial use price gradients are larger than those of residential use.

统筹城乡发展中的农地金融问题探析

改革开放以来掀起的农村金融体制改革和以土地家庭联产承包经营制为主要内容的农村土地制度改革,对促进我国农业、农村和农民的发展功不可没,但也存在一些制约城乡一体化建设的问题。在统筹城乡发展过程中,一方面要深化农村金融体制改革,构建多元化农村金融体系,加快农地制度改革,健全农地经营权流转体系;另一方面还应将农村土地制度与农村金融制度二者的改革与创新相互结合、相互统一,发展农地金融业务,积极探索具有创新意义的地票交易、农地承包权证券化等多样化农地金融产品。     

单位根,还是趋势间断?——基于中国宏观经济变量的实证研究

在内生单个趋势间断备择假设下,进出口量与真实利率拒绝了单位根的原假设;而在内生多个趋势间断备择假设下,包括通货膨胀率、进出口量、工业增加值与真实利率在内的主要宏观经济变量都拒绝了单位根的原假设。基于不同的备择假设,我们可能得到完全相背的平稳性推断结论。因此,深入考察各个变量自身的生成机制,无论是对于经济理论或实证研究,抑或政策评价,都具有重要的现实意义。     

Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests of Latin American Emerging Equity Markets: A Revisit

The few existing studies on equity price dynamics and market efficiency for Latin American emerging equity markets show conflicting results. This study uses multiple varianceratio and auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving-average tests and new data (U.S. dollar-based national equity indices for the 1987–1997 period) to clarify these results. Documented evidence shows that equity prices in major Latin American emerging equity markets — Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico—follow a random walk, and that they are, generally, weak-form efficient. In sum, therefore, the evidence suggests that international investors in these markets cannot use historical information to design systematically profitable trading schemes because future long-term returns are not dependent on past returns.     

企业并购长期市场绩效与绩效推断假说——来自中国股票市场的经验证据

对企业并购长期市场绩效与影响因素的研究是目前理论界关注的焦点。以中国上市公司1998~2004年发生并购的公司为样本,研究并购公司在并购后三年的市场绩效,结果表明:并购后三年内并购公司的市场绩效都小于对照组的市场绩效;虽然管理者有高估自己能力的可能,但是对绩效推断假说的检验表明,无法用管理者是否过度自信解释价值型公司和成长型公司在并购后长期市场绩效的差异。     

Land Prices and Land Assembly in the CBD

There is substantial empirical evidence of price concavity in the parcel-size dimension across land-use types and across urban regions. This article examines the degree to which concavity varies between the Central Business District (CBD) and the rest of the urban area. The article provides strong empirical support that the degree of concavity within the CBD is lower than in the rest of the county. Although concavity may be the dominant pricing relationship throughout most urban areas, there is some evidence of the presence of a convex price structure within the urban center.     

An Empirical Examination of the Pricing of Seasoned Equity Offerings: A Test of the Signaling Hypothesis

This paper tests the predictions made by Signaling Theory against the competing Price–Irrelevance Hypothesis (Eckbo and Masulis, 1992). Signaling Theory suggests that the issue price of a security provides a signal of quality of the issuing firm. In contrast, the Price–Irrelevance Hypothesis suggests that equity pricing does not possess information content. This paper investigates the pricing of seasoned equity offerings by examining the role of firm quality and relative firm valuation on issue price discounts. Additionally, this paper investigates the relationship between the issue price discount and the market reaction at the issuance of seasoned equity offerings. The results indicate that firm quality does not have a significant impact on the degree of price discounting by the issuing firm. Relative firm market valuation does appear to be a determinant of the magnitude of discounting in setting the issue price. This paper also provides evidence that seasoned equity offerings firms that provide a lower issue-price discount experience a lower stock-price decline following the issuance as compared to firms offering a higher price discount.     

Stock Price Reaction to Daily Limit Moves: Evidence From the Taiwan Stock Exchange

This paper tests the overreaction hypothesis by examining the price behavior following daily limit moves. The sample includes all listed firms on the Taiwan Stock Exchange for the period 1971—93. There are significant price reversals following the limit moves for both the up-limit and the down-limit cases. The price reversals cannot be attributed to the size effect. When the size effect is adjusted for, the price reversals remain significant.     

O-F模型与合理市盈率研究--中国股市泡沫的实证分析

市盈率是被广泛用来测量股市泡沫风险的一个重要指标。本文根据O-F模型（基于账面价值和未来剩余收益的定价模型），导出衡量股市泡沫的合理市盈率计算公式，并以此考察了中国的股市泡沫。通过分析发现市盈率的合理值是一个动态值，主要由企业各期的净资产、收益、净资产收益率、持续盈利能力等内生变量决定，不存在一个固定的合理市盈率来测量股市的泡沫程度。计算表明中国的股市泡沫白1993年以来呈明显下降趋势，且2001逐步形成以来，我国股市基本上不存在投机性泡沫，股市运行处于比较理性的阶段。     

Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM

The empirical implications of the consumption-oriented capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) are examined, and its performance is compared with a model based on the market portfolio. The CCAPM is estimated after adjusting for measurement problems associated with reported consumption data. The CCAPM is tested using betas based on both consumption and the portfolio having the maximum correlation with consumption. As predicted by the CCAPM, the market price of risk is significantly positive, and the estimate of the real interest rate is close to zero. The performances of the traditional CAPM and the CCAPM are about the same.     

实际汇率、通货膨胀与巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应假说——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验

利用中国30个省区的数据检验了中国经济相容于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的程度,结果表明:各省区的相对劳动生产率的差异与相对价格的关系符合巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应理论所描述的特征。对各省区的相对劳动生产率与相对价格进行逐个的协整检验,结果表明:有23个省区的数据符合理论所预示,这也从一个角度提供了各省区通货膨胀率长期存在差异的解释。进一步研究发现,生产率的差异与各省区的实际汇率之间存在较弱的长期协整关系。     

A Survey of Emerging Derivatives Markets

This paper summarizes theoretical and empirical research on the roles and functions of emerging derivatives markets and the resulting implications on policy and regulations. Previous studies revealed that commodity derivatives markets offered an effective and welfare-improving method to deal with price volatility. Financial derivatives markets have helped to support capital inflows into emerging market economies. On the other hand, the use of financial derivatives has led to exacerbated volatility and accelerated capital outflow. There is a consensus that derivatives are seldom the cause of a financial crisis but they could amplify the negative effects of the crisis and accelerate contagion. Previous studies of derivatives markets have supported the hedging role of emerging derivatives markets. Empirical results from a few emerging countries suggest a price discovery function of emerging futures markets. The findings on the price stabilization function of emerging derivatives markets are mixed. Finally, recent research has documented that constructive development of derivatives markets in emerging market economies needs to be supported by sound macroeconomic fundamentals as well as updated financial policies and regulations.     

Benchmark Status in Fixed-Income Asset Markets

Abstract:  What is a benchmark bond? We provide a formal theoretical treatment of this concept that relates endogenously determined benchmark status to price discovery, and we derive its implications. We describe an econometric technique for identifying the benchmark that is congruent with our theoretical framework. We apply this to the US corporate bond market and to the natural experiment that occurred when benchmark status was contested in the European sovereign bond markets. We show that France provides the benchmark at most maturities in the Euro-denominated sovereign bond market and that IBM provides the benchmark in the US corporate bond market.     

商贸服务业发展对农产品价格波动影响的实证研究

以中国1980~2014年共35年宏观经济数据为样本,采用向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法,考量商贸服务业对农产品价格波动的动态影响。结果表明：批发零售对农产品价格存在时滞的、长期且稳定的负向影响;交通运输短期内会对农产品价格产生负向影响,但这一影响不能持续;长期来看,其投资额的增加会推动农产品价格的上涨。为此,要加大力度建设农村商贸流通体系,加快发展涉农批发及零售业,大力发展涉农现代物流业。     

A Primer on Piecewise Parabolic Multiple Regression Analysis via Estimations of Chicago CBD Land Prices

This article proposes a non-parametric method for estimating spatial price functions. Space is divided into squares. The independent variables are barycentric coordinates that uniquely describe the location of observations in space. The regression coefficients are estimates of the height of the function directly over the vertices of the square spatial units. Within each square the function has hyperbolic iso-price curves and parabolic sections. The price function is continuous, but not differentiable, at the boundaries between contiguous squares. This method is applied to the problem of describing the price per front foot of land in the Chicago CBD. A rather complex price surface is revealed that would be difficult to estimate using other methodologies but was easily estimated by this simple method.     

On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach

The main intention of this paper is to investigate, with new daily data, whether prices in the two Chinese stock exchanges (Shanghai and Shenzhen) follow a random‐walk process as required by market efficiency. We use two different approaches, the standard variance‐ratio test of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) and a model‐comparison test that compares the ex post forecasts from a NAÏVE model with those obtained from several alternative models: ARIMA, GARCH and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). To evaluate ex post forecasts, we utilize several procedures including RMSE, MAE, Theil's U, and encompassing tests. In contrast to the variance‐ratio test, results from the model‐comparison approach are quite decisive in rejecting the random‐walk hypothesis in both Chinese stock markets. Moreover, our results provide strong support for the ANN as a potentially useful device for predicting stock prices in emerging markets.     

虚拟土地进口视角下的中美农产品贸易效益分析

2018年以来,中美农产品贸易受两国贸易争端影响严重,2020年初中美签署的第一阶段经贸协议,对两国后续农产品贸易具有深远影响.基于要素禀赋理论和机会成本理论,本文对2001～2019年中国进口美国7类最主要的农产品的贸易动态、虚拟土地含量和虚拟土地面积以及进口效益进行分析发现:中国对美国农产品的虚拟土地面积进口呈总体...     

Price Limits and Margin Requirements in Futures Markets

This paper investigates the hypothesis that futures exchanges could use daily price limits as a substitute for higher margin requirements. The empirical results show that the size of margin is negatively correlated with the presence of price limits. Evidence points to the portfolio adjustment costs theory as an explanation of the benefits from price limits. The empirical results cast doubt on the notion that price limits should be abolished. The results also confirm that exchanges have set margin requirements according to economic theories.