测土配方施肥技术推广中农户行为实证研究

2005年实施新的测土配方施肥政策以来,为了研究该政策在农户中的实施情况,文章利用调查的农户数据对农民采用测土配方施肥技术的原因、采用效果的评价、影响农民采用的因素进行了研究。研究表明农户采用测土配方施肥技术的主要原因是为了增加产量,采用该技术的农户基本实现了产量的增加并且对技术的评价较好;影响农户对技术采用与否的关键因素是施肥建议卡的发放情况、配方肥的价格以及农户自身受教育水平。据此提出政府的推广部门要确保施肥建议卡入户、对配方肥进行补贴和在农户内部建立种植示范户制度等建议。     

农户参与测土配方施肥意愿的影响因素分析——以陕西省杨凌区为例

基于陕西省的调研数据,通过建立Logistic模型分析了农户在农业生产中采用测土配方技术的意愿及其影响因素。研究结果表明:出于对降低成本和提高产量以及环境安全的关注,大多数农户愿意采用测土配方施肥技术;农户的年龄、受教育程度、家庭收入、对农业面源污染和农业技术的认知程度、采用测土配方施肥技术的外部环境等因素对农户采用测土配方施肥技术的意愿具有显著影响。因此,应进一步加强农业技术培训和宣传教育,提高农户对科学技术的认知程度,加强农户的环境安全意识和对污染危害性的认识,从而增强农户参与测土配方施肥的积极性。     

浅析保山市测土配方施肥技术研究与应用

针对保山市人均耕地数量减少和质量降低,施肥过程中存在的突出问题,摸清农户施肥现状,系统研究不同区域、不同作物施肥参数,提出合理施肥建议,大力推广测土配方施肥技术取得显著成效。     

新乡县中水肥田夏玉米测土配方田间施肥效果研究

新乡县已连续三年实施测土配方施肥补贴项目,为了客观评价夏玉米测土配方施肥效果,校正施肥技术参数及优化化肥配方,在新乡县朗公庙镇西马头王村开展了夏玉米测土配方田间示范试验。在新乡县中产区地块对夏玉米测土配方田间施肥进行示范研究,结果表明,以配方施肥区亩产值和亩效益最高,建议推广使用。     

稻农四种常用环境友好型技术采用行为研究——对福建省三明市236户稻农的实证调查

论文以福建省三明市236户稻农为研究对象,运用Logistic回归模型考察农户对四种环境友好型技术的采用情况。实证结果显示:生物农药、病虫害统防统治、化肥替代品、测土配方施肥4种常用环境友好型技术的采用受农户家庭年收入、兼业收入比例、种植面积、农资价格、技术便捷性、使用效果、安全需求、是否接受过培训或指导等变量的显著影响,影响4种采用行为的主要因素各有不同,其中种植面积是最重要的因素。     

少数民族农户生产行为的碳排放评估研究——基于白族农户实证分析

针对少数民族农户生产行为特征,构建少数民族农户农业生产行为的碳排放结构模型,根据碳排放系数法,结合相关文献资料,对农业生产过程中投入的化肥、农药、农膜、柴油、汽油、电力等六个要素碳排放进行测算。运用二元Logistic回归模型实证分析白族农户低碳生产行为的影响因素,得到:期末经营土地面积、生产收入以及本村到县城的距离三个因素对碳排放具有显著影响。根据分析结果提出推广低碳种植技术、合理分配生产收入、推广测土配方施肥技术和完善农村社会保障体系的四条减碳措施。     

黑龙江地区水稻肥料使用现状浅谈

水稻在黑龙江省三大粮食作物中占据重要位置。水稻施肥存在品种单一,忽视有机培肥经验施肥,肥料投入不足等问题因而必须改进水稻施肥技术,提高测土配方施肥,加强水稻专用肥的研制与推广应用。     

玉米需肥特点及施肥技术浅析

本文主要介绍了玉米的需肥特性，氮、磷、钾营养不足或过剩对玉米生长、产量和质量的影响。玉米营养失调症的诊断，如何为玉米进行测土配方施肥，玉米施肥技术等内容。     

农户种植结构区域分异研究——基于江汉平原与太湖平原农户调查数据

研究目的:分析当前我国农户种植结构选择行为的决策逻辑,提出农户种植结构区域分异规律。研究结果:(1)根据不同农作物的劳动边际产出的差异,可将农作物分为两类,一类是劳动边际产出较高的农作物如水稻,一类是劳动边际产出较低的农作物如棉花;(2)农户心理劳动报酬是在要素市场不发育的条件下,农户对自身劳动价值的判断;(3)农户种植结构调整的行为逻辑为:农户倾向于选择劳动边际产出与其心理劳动报酬接近的作物。研究结论:经济较发达地区,农户生产环境较好,该地区农业种植结构倾向于劳动边际产出较高的作物;经济欠发达地区,农户生产环境较差,该地区农业种植结构倾向于劳动边际产出较低的作物。     

我国蔬菜播种面积的影响因素分析

研究目的是探究我国蔬菜播种面积的主要经济因素和作用机理。从蔬菜供给的微观主体—农户的角度,运用面板数据计量模型分析1994—2007年间我国蔬菜主产省的蔬菜播种面积的影响因素。研究发现,蔬菜种植户的蔬菜播种面积决策受蔬菜和其他替代农作物生产的相对比较收益、该地区非农就业水平的较大变化和以往农户蔬菜生产决策的影响。基于研究结论表明由于农民种植决策的选择是一个长期的周期过程以及以往决策的滞后影响,任何政策措施的制定和实施必须考虑其带来的长期效果,而不能过分关注当前的短期效果。     

Testing assumptions underlying economic research on transgenic food crops for Third World farmers: Evidence from Cuba,Guatemala and Mexico

Transgenic crop varieties (TGVs) are being promoted as essential for improving small-scale Third World (SSTW) agriculture. Most economic research on this topic makes critical, untested assumptions, including that farmers will choose TGVs over other varieties because TGVs are economically optimal and because farmers are risk neutral profit maximizers. We tested these assumptions using data from a survey of 334 farmers in 6 communities in Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico in which farmers ranked 4 real and hypothetical maize varieties for eating and sowing. Our results did not support these assumptions. Most farmers preferred farmer varieties for sowing and especially for eating, avoiding TGVs, a preference associated with being risk averse and with non-monetary preferences. Farmers more integrated into modern agriculture were more likely to choose TGVs. These results suggest that farmers most in need of support and most important for conserving genetic diversity are least favorable toward TGVs, and that alternative ways of improving SSTW agriculture should receive more attention.     

Testing assumptions underlying economic research on transgenic food crops for Third World farmers: Evidence from Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico

Transgenic crop varieties (TGVs) are being promoted as essential for improving small-scale Third World (SSTW) agriculture. Most economic research on this topic makes critical, untested assumptions, including that farmers will choose TGVs over other varieties because TGVs are economically optimal and because farmers are risk neutral profit maximizers. We tested these assumptions using data from a survey of 334 farmers in 6 communities in Cuba, Guatemala and Mexico in which farmers ranked 4 real and hypothetical maize varieties for eating and sowing. Our results did not support these assumptions. Most farmers preferred farmer varieties for sowing and especially for eating, avoiding TGVs, a preference associated with being risk averse and with non-monetary preferences. Farmers more integrated into modern agriculture were more likely to choose TGVs. These results suggest that farmers most in need of support and most important for conserving genetic diversity are least favorable toward TGVs, and that alternative ways of improving SSTW agriculture should receive more attention.     

The SLCP-driven land use changes and farmers' responses in the loess hilly and gully region: a case study for Ansai County

Taking Ansai County, located in loess hilly and gully area as a case, this study analyzes the land use changes driven by the SLCP (Slope Land Conversion Program) and the farmers' responses by household survey and participatory rapid appraisal (PRA).It is found that the SLCP aroused various changes in land use, agricultural production, rural incomes, etc.In the period of 1999-2005, the farmland and grasslands were reduced by 26, 809 ha and 17,571 ha respectively, while forestland increased by 38,203 ha:greenhouse vegetable and orchard got a quick development, with the area enlarged by about 7 times and nearly doubled respectively.The SLCP reduced the area of crops particularly those that normally grown on slope lands, e.g.the sowing area of winter wheat dropped from 19.39% of the total cropping area in 1999 to 0.98% in 2005.Draught animals, pigs and sheep have a decline in the number because the remained land and the ban on grazing on natural grasslands can not provide sufficient feed forage.Thanks to the financial subsidy, farmers increased land inputs and thus outputs.To achieve long-term sustainable development and improve rural income, the government should continuously support farmers to improve the land management, to adopt alternative land use systems, and to increase inputs on soil conservation.Vegetable and fruit production are two promise land use systems, and should be further developed.     

An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms

This paper explores how South American farmers adapt to climate by changing crops. We develop a multinomial logit model of farmer's choice of crops. Estimating the model across 949 farmers in seven countries, we find that both temperature and precipitation affect the crops that South American farmers choose. Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations and wheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetter locations are more likely to grow rice, fruits, potatoes, and squash and in dryer locations maize and wheat. Global warming will cause South American farmers to switch away from maize, wheat, and potatoes towards squash, fruits and vegetables. Predictions of the impact of climate change on net revenue must reflect not only changes in yields per crop but also crop switching.     

农业生产资料投入对粮食作物产出影响因素的相关验证分析

农业生产资料价格上涨,导致农民对农业生产的资源配置、作物结构以及投入结构进行调整,以优化生产成本,这将进一步影响相关粮食作物的产出。应用C—D生产函数的扩展形式,分析农业生产资料各投入要素变化,对粮食作物产出的影响程度。化肥施用量和农业劳动力数是影响粮食产出的两个主要因素,进而提出了推广科学施肥,提高化肥利用率、大力推广农业机械化技术的应用、加大国家对农业基础建设和科研开发与推广的投资力度等保障措施,来进一步促进粮食生产稳步增长。     

科学孵化苎麻家居类创新企业拉动坡耕地水土流失治理步伐

苎麻种植是南方坡耕地十分有效的一项生态经济措施,既能保持水土,又能获取经济收益。过度外贸型的苎麻产品结构,受国际金融危机影响,出口量急剧下降,造成苎麻种植面积直线下降、退出坡耕地用作其他农作物种植后土壤侵蚀加大的不利局面。苎麻产品只有立足国内市场,才能将苎麻市场做大做强。面向家居市场是可选途径之一。2007年以来,苎麻墙布开发的技术工艺研发与孵化已经完成,据此规模生产苎麻墙布产品,将形成南方坡耕地区水土保持生态建设与经济共同发展,企业与农民共同致富的良性循环。     

Increasing cooperation among plants,symbionts, and farmers is key to past and future progress in agriculture

The collective welfare of crop plants, their microbial symbionts, farmers, and society can be undermined by tragedies of the commons. A crop could increase resource allocation to grain if each plant invested less in sending roots into soil already explored by neighbors and less in stem growth. But evolutionary fitness depends on which plants capture the most soil resources and light (e.g., by growing taller than their neighbors), not just on the efficiency with which those resources are used. As for symbionts, with several strains infecting each plant, only host-imposed sanctions limit the fitness of strains that divert more resources to their own reproduction, at the expense of activities that benefit their host plant. Similarly, individual farmers do not necessarily benefit from pest- and resource-management practices that benefit farmers collectively or society as a whole. Plant breeders have increased crop yields by reversing past selection for individual fitness and they could breed for crops that would favor more-cooperative microbial symbionts. Better aligning interests among farmers and society may be more difficult.     

Optimal Management of Soil Quality Stocks and Long-Term Consequences of Land Degradation for Smallholder Farmers in Malawi

While soil degradation has long-term consequences, static models which form the bulk of studies on this topic in Africa, do not account for the inter-temporal dimensions of optimal resource management. This paper used an inter-temporal optimisation framework, which considered soil in a time-dependent resource extraction perspective. We have demonstrated that soil degradation is causing an enormous reduction in productive value of smallholder land in Malawi. Current user cost of soil quality among smallholder farmers, which represents annual loss in productive value of land, was estimated to be US$21 per hectare. Based on this value and land area under smallholder agriculture in Malawi, economic costs of soil degradation among smallholder farmers were estimated to amount to 14% of the agricultural GDP for Malawi. Although smallholder farmers’ current practices are sub-optimal to Steady State solutions, they are above static solutions. This demonstrates that smallholder farmers have some private incentives to invest in the soil quality stock. Smallholder farmers internalise some of the dynamic costs of soil degradation under the current practices. However, a sensitivity analysis on a slightly higher discount rate indicates that SS solutions closely resemble the prevailing smallholder farming practices. This suggests that smallholder farmers may be overexploiting soil quality stock because they have a high time preference. That is, they value the current consumption more than their future consumption and wellbeing. High levels of poverty in Malawi and serious lack of viable alternatives to subsistence farming may be influencing such behaviour. Promoting more viable land use alternatives than subsistence farming and formuling policies that help transform smallholder agriculture into a profitable enterprise will not only increase the cost of degrading the soil, but also encourage farmers to invest in the soil quality stock.     

A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future. S. Niggol Seo is the Consultant to the World Bank.