村庄信任与标会

本文在对温州一个村庄的标会情况进行了比较详尽调查的基础上 ,将村庄共同体理论和信任理论与该村的非正式金融发展现实相结合 ,初步地建立了“村庄信任”这样一个全新的理论概念与分析框架。借助这一分析框架 ,文章认为 :(1 )标会将自由竞标过程与程序、竞争性利率决定、自愿性合作、大众参与、信任等因素实现了有机结合 ,是一种很有效率、活力与竞争力的非正式金融制度安排。 (2 )因为村庄共同体与区域性文化等因素对标会行为的嵌入 (embeddedness) ,小规模、社区性标会在现实运作过程中的风险很小。 (3 )政府在有针对性地加强监管的同时 ,应该允许各种非正式金融的存在与发展。     

On the Optimality of Search Matching Equilibrium When Workers Are Risk Averse

This paper revisits the normative properties of search‐matching economies when homogeneous workers have concave utility functions and wages are bargained over. The optimal allocation of resources is characterized first when information is perfect and second when search effort is not observable. In the former case, employees should be unable to extract a rent. The optimal marginal tax rate is then 100%. As search effort becomes unobservable, an appropriate positive rent is needed and the optimal marginal tax rate is lower. Moreover, the pretax wage is lower in order to boost labor demand. Finally, in both cases, nonlinear income taxation is a key complement to unemployment insurance.     

Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings*

We add health and longevity to a standard model of life‐cycle saving and show that, under plausible assumptions, increases in life expectancy lead to higher savings rates at every age, even when retirement is endogenous. In a stationary population these higher savings rates are offset by increased old age dependency, but during the disequilibrium phase, when longevity is rising, the effect on aggregate savings rates can be substantial. We find empirical support for this effect using a cross‐country panel of national savings rates.     

Social Security,Government Finance,and Savings*

This paper considers the impact of social security and the government financing mix on saving behaviour and aggregate economic activity. The theoretical argument for the neutrality of these actions is shown to have validity only if we consider the economy as behaving like a composite individual. Particular individuals do not face the same marginal rates of substitution and transformation as the hypothetical composite, due to corner solutions, illusions, and important distribution effects. Empirically, neutrality for the whole economy depends on the relative strengths of the offsetting forces faced by the individuals. Our findings with Australian data suggest that neither the level of aged pensions, nor the government financing mix, have substantial real effects on aggregate saving behaviour.     

Measuring and Optimizing Portfolio Credit Risk: A Copula‐based Approach*

In this work, we present a methodology for measuring and optimizing the credit risk of a loan portfolio taking into account the non‐normality of the credit loss distribution. In particular, we aim at modelling accurately joint default events for credit assets. In order to achieve this goal, we build the loss distribution of the loan portfolio by Monte Carlo simulation. The times until default of each obligor in portfolio are simulated following a copula‐based approach. In particular, we study four different types of dependence structure for the credit assets in portfolio: the Gaussian copula, the Student's t‐copula, the grouped t‐copula and the Clayton n‐copula (or Cook–Johnson copula). Our aim is to assess the impact of each type of copula on the value of different portfolio risk measures, such as expected loss, maximum loss, credit value at risk and expected shortfall. In addition, we want to verify whether and how the optimal portfolio composition may change utilizing various types of copula for describing the default dependence structure. In order to optimize portfolio credit risk, we minimize the conditional value at risk, a risk measure both relevant and tractable, by solving a simple linear programming problem subject to the traditional constraints of balance, portfolio expected return and trading. The outcomes, in terms of optimal portfolio compositions, obtained assuming different default dependence structures are compared with each other. The solution of the risk minimization problem may suggest us how to restructure the inefficient loan portfolios in order to obtain their best risk/return profile. In the absence of a developed secondary market for loans, we may follow the investment strategies indicated by the solution vector by utilizing credit default swaps.     

Unemployment Risk, Labour Force Participation and Savings

This paper analyses labour force participation and precautionary savings in the presence of risks of being fired or failing to secure a job offer when out of the labour market. We use a finite horizon framework with two employment states and a stage utility function which is CARA in consumption but non-separable in leisure. The results are that there is precautionary labour force participation: employment risk lowers the reservation wage; generally it also reduces consumption. However due to the non-separability assumption, precautionary savings, as usually defined, may not be positive. We characterize the reservation wage and contrast the results with those in which the stage utility is additive in leisure and consumption. We extend the analysis to study the effects of cyclical variation in employment risk, of stochastic future wage rates, and of adding a third employment state of search.     

Aging,Savings, and Public Pensions in Japan*

We analyze the impact of population aging on Japan's household savings rate and on its public pension system and the impact of that system on Japan's household savings rate and obtain the following results: first, the age structure of Japan's population can explain the level of, and past and future trends in, its household savings rate; second, the rapid aging of Japan's population is causing Japan's household savings rate to decline and this decline can be expected to continue; third, the pay‐as‐you‐go nature of the public pension system, combined with rapid population aging, created considerable intergenerational inequities and increased the savings rates of cohorts born after 1965, which in turn slowed the decline in Japan's household savings rate; and fourth, the 2004 public pension reform alleviated the intergenerational inequities of Japan's public pension system somewhat but will in the long run exacerbate the downward trend in Japan's household savings rate.     

The Savings Ratio and Financial Repression in Trinidad and Tobago *

This paper investigates the hypothesis financial repression in the context of the Determinates of the private savings ratio in Trinidad and Tobago, using the Multivariate, cointegration time-series methodology. Four alternative proxies are Used to represent financial repression, including the real interest rate, the real interest Rate differential between the world and domestic economy and two alternative Measures of exchange rate misalignment, We find that there is strong evidence to Support the hypothesis of financial repression in Trinidad and Tobago over the sample Period and that financial liberalization may significantly enhance the growth of real Per capita income. [E2, F4, O1]     

Risk Shocks and Credit Spreads

What moves corporate bond credit spreads? This paper employs a novel statistical method to extract the shock that accounts for the maximal amount of the forecast error variance of credit spreads over a given forecast horizon. I find that the extracted shock can explain a substantial portion of unpredictable fluctuations in credit spreads. In particular, impulse response functions indicate that it has a significant adverse effect on economic activity and financial markets, and closely resemble those of the risk shock as reported in Christiano et al. (2014). To investigate this interpretation more formally, I identify the risk shock using the VIX index as a measure of uncertainty proposed by Bloom (2009) and show that surprisingly, the two shocks are intimately related despite using different identification procedures. This finding implies that the risk shock is the main driver of movements in credit spreads, providing empirical evidence on their strong linkages with macroeconomic dynamics, as well as on their roles in presenting valuable information about future economic activity.     

Uban Tolled Roads and the Value of Travel Time Savings*

The recent interest in the privatization of major urban roads has opened up the debate on the tolling of such facilities. Central to the identification of optimal tolls is a knowledge of the amount of money individuals are willing to outlay to save travel time. This paper combines a utility maximization framework with stated response data to determine values of time savings in the presence of varying levels of toll for the full set of urban journey purposes. The empirical results provide a basis for establishing one benchmark for toll setting, in the context of substantial lengths of urban roads. There are no tolled urban roads in any major urban area throughout the world     

基于赊销风险度企业赊销风险评估模型及操作

本文结合赊销风险的特征,提出将"赊销风险度"作为新的赊销风险度量标准,该标准以赊销客户的平均货款回收率为计算基础,不仅能够区分赊销资金将来是否发生损失,还能够具体测度赊销资金的损失程度,弥补了现有赊销风险标准缺乏可操作性的缺陷.在定义以上赊销风险度的基础上,论文将供应链赊销风险划分为5个等级,并将支持向量机(SVM)引入赊销风险评价,建立了基于SVM的供应链赊销风险评价模型.实证结果表明,该模型是有效且可行的.     

商业银行流动性风险、信用风险与偿付能力风险

流动性风险与信用风险是商业银行面对的主要风险类型,研究二者的相互关系及对商业银行经营的影响具有重要实践意义。实证分析表明,反映中国商业银行整体流动性风险的流动性创造指标会显著影响银行信用风险,但表示银行融资流动性风险的NSFR比率不会影响商业银行信用风险;信用风险对银行流动性风险的影响不显著。本文实证分析也从侧面证明银行资产流动性风险对银行信用风险影响较高,因为二者都与银行账面资产有关。实证分析还表明中国银行业存在"大而不倒"的现象,但本文认为这种"大而不倒"的现象本质来源是政府承担了商业银行流动性风险和信用风险的管理任务,因此商业银行自身应该从流动性风险和信用风险交互作用角度做好风险管理,降低银行风险。     

信用违约互换与中小企业信贷风险的分散

2007年以来,我国产业转型的压力逐渐增加,对转变增长模式的需求也越加迫切.在这样的背景下,一方面,我国需要支持和发展中小企业,利用其在科技创新方面的优势来推动产业转型;另一方面,银行又必须注意中小企业风险的防范与防控,以保持金融系统的稳定和信贷资产的安全.因此,银行信贷与产业转型要求之间便产生了矛盾:本需要支持的中小企业却更难获得银行的信贷支持.本文正是针对这一矛盾,从金融制度和业务创新的角度出发,利用信用违约互换这一重要的金融衍生工具,创新性地重构了信用违约互换的交易模式,以求缓解银行风控要求与中小企业融资需求之间的矛盾.     

Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows*

During the pre‐crisis period, Europe experienced substantial cross‐country variation in domestic credit growth and cross‐border capital flows. We investigate the inter‐relations between domestic credit growth and international capital flows during the period 1993–2008, with a special focus on the boom period of 2003–2008. We establish that domestic credit growth in European countries is strongly related to net debt inflows but not to net equity inflows. This pattern also holds for an extended sample of 54 advanced and emerging economies.     

Money,Credit, and Business Fluctuations*

This paper provides a critique of standard theories of money, in particular those based on money as a medium of exchange. Money is important because of the relationship between money and credit The process of judging credit worthiness, in which banks play a central role, invokes the collection and processing of information. Like many other economic activities involving information, these processes are not well described by means of standard production functions. Changes in economic circumstances can have marked effects on the relevance of previously accumulated information and accordingly on the supply of credit Changes in the availability of credit may have marked effects on the level of economic activity, while changes in real interest rates seem to play a relatively minor role in economic fluctuations. This alternative view has a number of implications for policy, both at the macroeconomic level (for instance, on the role of monetary policy for stabilization purposes and the choice of targets) and at the microeconomic level.     

资产选择、风险偏好与储蓄存款需求

本文以消费者最优资产选择模型为基础,采用局部均衡分析方法探讨了通货膨胀、股市收益波动、消费者风险偏好对储蓄存款需求的影响。2001年6月以后,通货膨胀方差下降,股市持续下跌,股市收益率下降,收益率方差也有所下降,但货币需求却加速增长。本文根据不同的相对风险回避指数,模拟了利率、通货膨胀、股市收益率、股市收益率方差等因素对2001年6月至2005年9月平均储蓄存款的影响。在适当的相对风险回避指数下,储蓄存款增加的30%左右可以由这些因素解释;如果不考虑GDP等规模变量,股市收益率下降是导致平均货币需求增长的主要因素。