Transportation Costs and US Manufacturing FDI

In empirical models of foreign direct investment (FDI), distance is most often used to proxy for transportation costs and other pure‐trade costs. Given that distance is time invariant but transportation costs are not, this approach is less than satisfactory when actual transportation costs rise and fall over time.The contribution of this work is to explicitly control for transportation costs and thereby better understand their impact on FDI. We explore the impact of shipping costs on total US FDI stocks abroad, manufacturing stocks and service stocks using measures of sea‐shipping and air‐shipping costs in a Hausman–Taylor model that controls for endogeneity and allows for time‐invariant variables such as distance. We find that transportation costs have a positive and statistically significant relationship with US total and manufacturing FDI, suggesting a substitute relationship between FDI and trade flows consistent with horizontal MNE activity. As one would expect, these costs are insignificant for service stocks.     

中心-外围模型的错误和再求解-对克鲁格曼解法的质疑

本文对中心—外围模型的错误进行了研究,并运用角点均衡求解方法对模型进行了重新求解。结果显示,当制造业运输成本较高时,全部制造业集聚于中心地区;当运输成本较低时,经济系统均衡于对称专业化模式。这一结论与克鲁格曼的结论正好相反。之所以发生这种情况,是因为制造业运输成本是作为一种集聚力而出现的,只有当运输成本系数较高时,人们才会有动力聚集在一起,以减少相互之间的贸易和运输。随着该系数的下降,这种节约动机变得越来越微弱,并最终导致中心—外围结构瓦解。     

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION ABOUT PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION

We introduce asymmetric information about consumers’ transportation costs (i.e., the degree of product differentiation) in the model of Hotelling. When transportation costs are high, both firms have lower profits with asymmetric information than with perfect information. Contrarily, if transportation costs are low, both firms may prefer the asymmetric information scenario (the informed firm always prefers the informational advantage, while the uninformed firm may or may not prefer to remain uninformed). Information exchange is ex‐ante advantageous for both firms, but ex‐post damaging if transportation costs turn out to be low. If the information is unverifiable, the informed firm does not represent a reliable source of information, since it always prefers to announce that transportation costs are high and there is no contract that induces truthful revelation.     

HOTELLING'S BEACH WITH LINEAR AND QUADRATIC TRANSPORTATION COSTS: EXISTENCE OF PURE STRATEGY EQUILIBRIA*

In Hotelling type models consumers have the same transportation cost function. We deviate from this assumption and introduce two consumer types. Some consumers have linear transportation costs, while the others have quadratic transportation costs. If at most half the consumers have linear transportation costs, a subgame perfect equilibrium in pure strategies exists for all symmetric locations. Furthermore, no general principle of differentiation holds. With two consumer types, the equilibrium pattern ranges from maximum to intermediate differentiation. The degree of product differentiation depends on the fraction of consumer types.     

Inter-Region Transportation Costs,Regional Economic Growth,and Disparities in China

To examine the correlation between regional economic growth and inter-region transportation costs in China, this study establishes a regional economic growth model embedded with inter-region transportation costs based on the Cobb-Douglas production function. Based on a balanced growth empirical model, this study verifies the correlation by conducting a regression analysis of the panel data of 29 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1985 to 2015. The empirical results show that: (1) The per capita GDP growth among the three regions (namely, the eastern, central, and western regions of China) meets a conditional convergence trend, and the decreasing of the inter-region transportation costs increases the convergence speed; (2) The per capita GDP growth is in line with the club convergence trend within each of the three regions; (3) The trend of the output elasticity of the inter-region transportation costs shows that the gradual decrease of inter-region transportation costs has a positive correlation with the narrowing of economic disparity after the year 2000, accelerating "common prosperity" across different regions in China.     

Ricardian Comparative Advantage and Geographical Concentration

This paper analyses geographical concentration using the continuum‐of‐goods trade model in the presence of labor migration, Ricardian comparative advantage and Marshallian‐type external increasing returns to scale. The findings show that higher transportation costs lead to concentration in one region, and lower transportation costs lead to diversification between the regions. For intermediate transportation costs, asymmetric diversification becomes a stable equilibrium in which the smaller population region has higher wage rates and a smaller externality, and vice versa. However, because the asymmetric equilibrium is an inefficient outcome, it leaves room for government intervention.     

Engel's law, Petty's law, and agglomeration

This paper presents a model of structural change and agglomeration. A decline in transportation costs, by enhancing consumers’ purchasing power, leads to Engel's law of the demand shift from agricultural to non-agricultural goods. At the same time, the decline in transportation costs, by enlarging the extent of the market for non-agricultural goods, induces Petty's law of the labor reallocation from agriculture to non-agricultural activities. These structural transformations weaken dispersion forces given by farmers tied to the land, whereas they strengthen agglomeration forces generated by footloose non-agricultural workers. Thus, a substantial decline in transportation costs gives rise to agglomeration of non-agricultural activities.     

Moving beyond the iceberg model: The role of trade relations in endogenizing transportation costs in computable general equilibrium models

Modeling trade and transportation costs is an essential part of multiregional or spatial computable general equilibrium models where interregional trade plays an important rolein shaping economic activity. The majority of such models use the iceberg trade cost approach where part of the produced output (representing the material costs of transportation) is assumed to melt away during transportation. There are a few models which employ a more refined approach with an explicit transportation sector providing transportation services which are then used to ship goods between locations. In this paper we show that this approach, although much more convenient than the iceberg approach, still lacks full usability due to the fact that markets, hence prices are defined at the regional level and as a result, transportation costs can not be endogenous at the trade relation level. Moreover, under regional level market clearing the iceberg and the more detailed approach are equivalent. We propose to refine the definition of market equilibrium and move it to the trade relation level. Using this approach we can gain full advantage of the explicit transport sector in the model with respect to trade cost evolution. We show through simulations that refining the way trade costs are modelled indeed gains new insights, and that moving the market definition to the trade relational level leads to qualitative changes in the effect of labor supply shocks on main model variables. The paper also presents a method to estimate a SAM by reallocating data from standard industries to a transportation sector which is then consistent with the model setup. This SAM can be used to calibrate the refined model with a detailed transportation sector.     

Spatial price discrimination in the unidirectional Hotelling model with elastic demand

The unidirectional Hotelling model is extended to allow for elastic demand functions. A two-stage Bertrand-type model and a two-stage Cournot-type model are considered. If firms choose location and then set prices, agglomeration never arises; instead, if firms choose location and then set quantities, agglomeration arises at one endpoint of the segment when the transportation costs are low enough. Instead, when the transportation costs are high enough, a dispersed equilibrium arises in Cournot. The equilibrium distance between the firms is lower in Cournot than in Bertrand. When the transportation costs are high (low) the Bertrand equilibrium is welfare superior (inferior) to the Cournot equilibrium.     

Have Falling Tariffs and Transportation Costs Raised US Wage Inequality?

To gauge the effect of international trade on the rising US skill premium, the paper analyzes the sector bias of price changes induced by changes in US tariffs and transportation costs. It is found that, in both the 1970s and 1980s, cuts in tariffs and transportation cost levels were concentrated in unskilled‐intensive sectors. Despite this suggestive evidence, the authors estimate that price changes induced by tariffs or transportation costs mandated a rise in inequality that was mostly statistically insignificant. Thus, they do not find strong evidence that falling tariffs and transport costs, working through price changes, mandated rises in inequality.     

Markups,quality, and transport costs

This paper provides new evidence on trade prices based on firm-level data from France. It shows that firms charge higher free-on-board (net of transportation costs, hereafter noted as fob) unit values on exports to more distant countries. This finding holds within firms and products, and across destinations. The price premium paid by distant consumers is due to firms charging higher fob prices, and to higher transportation costs. A simple decomposition of the elasticity of import prices to distance shows that, after a fall in transport costs, almost 80% of the decline in import prices enjoyed by consumers is due to firms charging lower fob prices. This suggests a new channel through which changes in transport costs may affect welfare.     

The circular road revisited: Uniqueness and supermodularity

The model of the circular road has proved to be a popular model of oligopolistic interaction, yet its theoretical properties are not fully explored. In this paper I extend the uniqueness result of price equilibrium in the circular road with equidistant locations from quadratic transportation costs, to a class of convex power transportation costs, i.e. I show uniqueness in oligopoly for a class of utility functions of the consumers. I show that the associated game is supermodular and dominance solvable. The paper also discusses possible extensions and limitations of the model.     

The effect of distance and road quality on food collection, marketing margins, and traders' wages: evidence from the former Zaire

Food price variation is typical of the food economies of many low income countries. The presence or absence of road infrastructure is perceived to be one of the main determinants of this variation. This analysis shows that in the case of the former Zaire, food price dispersion is significant both across products and across regions. It is demonstrated that transportation costs explain most of the differences in food prices between producer regions and that road quality is an important factor in the transportation costs. However, food prices decrease relatively faster than transportation costs increase and traders' wages are higher on bad roads.     

泛珠三角产业集群形成的运输成本因为研究

文章对影响产业集群的运输成本因素加以研究,并考察了泛珠三角区域的产业集群情况,得出距离对产业集聚的决定性影响的结论.提出不发达地区应尽量改善距离发达地区的交通条件,从而降低与经济中心城市运输成本的政策建议.     

Uncertain Productivity Growth and the Choice between FDI and Export

While determinants of FDI patterns have received widespread attention, the timing of their surge remains largely unexplained. According to the proximity–concentration trade‐off argument, a surge in FDI in times of decaying international transportation costs seemingly represents a paradox. Besides transportation costs, other factors have contextually changed: in particular, the uncertainty that firms bear has increased. Enriching the classical choice problem of a multinational firm with insights from the literature on investment under uncertainty, we illustrate how different types of uncertainty determine the timing and optimal entry mode (i.e. FDI or export) of a multinational enterprise into a new market.     

Peak globalization: Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed.     

Trade,transport costs and trade imbalances: An empirical examination of international markets and backhauls

The US trade deficit has been growing for over 25 years and has been accompanied by enlarging freight rate differentials. While traditional models of trade have ignored these gaps assuming symmetry across all bilateral trade costs, the specific linkages between trade imbalances and international transportation costs have remained unexplored. Given the current trade policies, the implications arising from the endogenous adjustment of bilateral transport costs to policy-induced changes in the US trade deficit are of particular importance. To break new ground on this issue, we develop and estimate a model of international trade and transportation that accounts for the effects of persistent trade imbalances. The theoretical results are supported by our empirical analysis and indicate that bilateral transport costs adjust to a country's trade imbalance. The implication is that a unilateral import policy, for example, will cause spillover effects into the bilaterally integrated export market. To illustrate, we use our empirical results to simulate the anticipated spillover effect from the Chinese ban on waste imports. We find that China's ban and the projected 1.5% rise in the US trade deficit will lead to not only a 0.77% reduction of transport costs charged on US exports to China but also a 0.34% increase in transport costs on US imports from China.     

Transportation capital and its effects on the U.S. economy: A general equilibrium approach

We analyze the effect of the US transportation system on economic activity by building a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with a taxpayer-funded transportation capital stock. We highlight stark differences between the positive welfare effects of additional infrastructure spending in the long run, and its potentially negative effects when we account for the large transition (time and delay) costs to build. We also quantify large differences between the effects of additional infrastructure spending and efficient transportation policies, such as congestion pricing and eliminating laws that artificially inflate input prices, concluding that taxpayer-funded transportation improvements that increase GDP significantly may produce smaller welfare gains than efficient policies that increase GDP modestly.     

Are Matched Partner Trade Statistics a Usable Measure of Transportation Costs?*

Data on transportation costs are difficult to obtain. In the absence of good data, many researchers have turned to indirect measures of transportation costs constructed using matched partner c.i.f./f.o.b. ratios from IMF and UN data. We investigate whether these data are usable, by comparing their levels and variation to directly measured transport costs for the US and New Zealand. We find that IMF c.i.f./f.o.b. ratios are badly error‐ridden in levels, and contain no useful information for time‐series or cross‐commodity variation. However, the IMF data do appear to reveal some meaningful cross‐exporter variation that might be usefully exploited by researchers.