Micro-credit programs and off-farm migration in China

Abstract. This paper seeks to evaluate effects of micro‐credit projects on the poor. We utilize data that we collected in Sichuan Province in 1999 to investigate whether micro‐credit projects have targeted the poor and whether participation in the micro‐credit project increases the likelihood of migration and switching to off‐farm jobs. We find that, although the micro‐credit programs did not help increase assets of the participants, it did help to move one or more of their members into an off‐farm job. Our findings indicate that there is a great deal of benefit in supporting micro‐credit programs.     

Rural credit and the time allocation of agricultural households: The case of PRONAF in Brazil

This paper evaluates the impact of Brazil's National Program to Strengthen Family Farming (PRONAF) on the time allocation of household members. We use data from the 2014 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, and we apply propensity score methods to complex surveys recently recommended in the literature. We find that PRONAF helps to increase focus on agricultural activities, but it also stimulates female partners to engage in unpaid work. The results show significant effects of PRONAF on child labor and on the gender‐specific division of labor within households, although it does not have the usual adverse effects of rural credit programs on school attendance.     

The impact of microcredit on self‐employment profits in Vietnam

This study examines the impact of microcredit on household self‐employment profits in Vietnam. For two indicators of credit participation – a dichotomous participation dummy and the accumulated amount of microcredit received per household – the analysis reveals a positive effect on household profits. The analysis also reveals that an instrumental variable method within a fixed‐effects framework can control for the possible endogeneity of credit and thereby identify the true effect of credit.     

The effects of off‐farm work on fertilizer and pesticide expenditures in China

This study examines the effects of participation in off‐farm work on farm expenditures on fertilizer and pesticide, using farm household survey data from China. Simple mean value comparisons reveal no statistically significant differences in fertilizer and pesticide expenditures between off‐farm work participants and nonparticipants. However, econometric estimation with a treatment effects model shows a negative selection bias. After controlling for this bias, the empirical results show that participation in off‐farm work exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on fertilizer and pesticide expenditures. Our findings generally suggest that the income effect of off‐farm work stimulates agricultural production by increasing investments in productivity‐enhancing inputs.     

Micro‐impacts of the Brazilian Regional Development Funds: Does lending size matter?

This paper evaluates the micro‐impacts of regional development funds in Brazil—the Constitutional Financing Funds (CFF)—using fixed effects panel data models and generalized propensity score between 2000 and 2012. Assessing the industrial and commerce/services sectors using fixed effects models, the results provide weak evidence of a positive and statistically significant impact of the CFF on job creation and no statistically significant impact on labor productivity growth at the firm level. Regarding dose‐response estimates, the results present evidence of nonlinear effects after three years of financing, suggesting that the amount of subsidized credit plays an important role in creating jobs and improving firm productivity.     

农户金融抑制及其福利损失的计量分析

本文运用biprobit模型和match模型,采用3000个农户的微观数据,计量分析了农户金融抑制的程度及其福利损失的大小。研究发现,农户金融抑制的程度为70.92%;由于金融抑制,所有样本农户平均所损失的纯收入、净经营收入、消费性支出和非土地性资产分别为9.43%、15.43%、15.57%和14.58%,直接受到金融抑制的样本农户平均所损失的纯收入、净经营收入、消费性支出和非土地性资产分别为9.55%、16.83%、16.46%和14.70%;土地面积、教育和医疗费用支出,对农户资金需求具有正的显著影响,金融资产余额对农户资金需求具有负的显著影响,生产性固定资产原值、受教育水平、交通条件和地理位置对农户资金需求的影响不显著;土地面积、受教育程度、地理位置和“关系”对资金供给具有正的显著影响,固定资产总值、交通条件对资金供给的影响不显著。     

ACTIVE LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS AND REGIONAL MOBILITY OF LABOR: EVIDENCE FROM THE SWEDISH RECESSION, 1994–1995

This paper addresses the impact of active labor market programs on interregional migration in Sweden. The purpose of the study is to determine the extent to which the programs, which provide training and labor market assistance to jobless individuals, induce participants to migrate. Analysis is based on data registers compiled in 1994 and 1995 by Statistics Sweden and the Labor Market Board of Sweden. The paper specifies and estimates a two‐equation model of participation and subsequent migration. The model, which is estimated by the method of maximum simulated likelihood, accounts for the role of program participation as an endogenous choice variable in the decision to migrate. In an attempt to capture the effect of migrant self‐selection, the estimation approach also controls for unobserved heterogeneity in the participation and migration equations. Results of the study indicate a significant positive impact of participation on subsequent mobility for males. This result is robust with respect to alternative specifications of the migration equation and alternative formulations of the model for program participation. For females, the evidence of program impacts is mixed and it appears to be sensitive to the statistical formulation of the model. (JEL J38, J61)     

Children's schooling in Nicaragua: What is the link between educational achievement,borrowing, and gender?

The impact of credit has been widely studied, and yet little is known about the effect of formal versus informal loans. In this paper, we contrast the two and their impact on children's schooling using longitudinal data from Nicaragua. To address endogeneity, we utilize both household fixed effects and locality–year fixed effects. Our results indicate that, on average, children from borrowing households fare worse than children from nonborrowing households, with male borrowers having a disproportionately negative effect on boys, and vice versa for girls and female borrowers. Informal credit is found to have a protective effect on school attendance, but the effects of formal and informal credit on cumulative schooling are found to be statistically equivalent. However, this appears to mask considerable heterogeneity within informal borrowing.     

THE IMPACT OF PUBLICLY PROVIDED EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION PROGRAMS ON DISTRICT‐LEVEL TEST SCORES

While the existing literature largely finds that standardized test scores are positively associated with participation in pre‐kindergarten programs at the student level, there is little research on the policy effect of publicly providing these programs to entire school districts. We attempt to partially fill this void by examining the effect that publicly provided pre‐kindergarten and full‐day kindergarten programs have on fourth grade student achievement in math and reading at the district level. The models utilize panel data from districts in Wisconsin along with fixed effects estimations. We find that once time‐invariant unobserved heterogeneity of a district is accounted for, preschool programs have small but significant impacts on a cohort's future math scores, particularly in less‐educated communities. Additionally, there is no evidence that preschool or full‐day kindergarten has an impact on future reading scores at the district level. (JEL I20, I28)     

农户借贷行为及其福利效果分析

本文研究分析了农户借贷行为及其对收入和福利状况的影响。研究发现 :受教育年限、土地规模、非农收入、所在村庄的发展水平和同一村庄其他竞争农户的特征对特定农户的借款数额都具有显著的影响 ;此外 ,农产品的价格对农户借款数额也具有显著的影响 ,产粮区的农户获取借款的难度明显比其它地区的农户大得多 ;借款对农户纯收入和福利状况在统计上有很显著的影响。     

Credit risk assessment in the microfinance industry

This paper discusses credit risk assessment through conventional and specialized credit evaluation metrics. I find that low credit risk is a direct consequence of sound implementation of good governance practices and sustainable financial performance through sound qualitative and quantitative risk management tools. Furthermore, I find that the depth and breadth of outreach and write‐off are by some margin the two most important determinant indicators of a microfinance institutions’ (MFI’s) credit risk control. In addition, I demonstrate that there is no significant statistical difference in terms of risk management among the different types of MFIs. Results also suggest that constructive regulation to promote MFIs has a non‐negligible impact on the risk assessment of MFIs.     

Legacy and credit scores in South Africa

This paper assesses the impact of legacy and credit scores on access to bank credit in South Africa. Typically, credit data focuses on socio-economic information. However legacy variables, factors beyond the control of individuals, have not been well considered. We find that although credit scores clearly influence access to credit, legacy has a statistically significant impact on credit scores and on the amount of credit granted. While these results can be interpreted as bias against those with negative legacy, they can also be explained in terms of information asymmetry and the relative ability to enforce contracts with clients who have positive legacy.     

Gender Inequality and Economic Growth in Korea

Calibrating an endogenous‐growth model to Korean data, we analyse the impact of gender inequality in Korea on long‐term economic growth. We find that gender equality policies that lower discrimination in the labour market or that increase the time spent by a father on childrearing can contribute positively to female labour market participation and per capita income growth. The simulation results show that when the disparities between men and women at home and in the labour market are completely removed, the female labour force participation rate increases from 54.4 to 67.5%, and the growth rate in per capita income rises from 3.6 to 4.1% on average over a generation.     

The Effects of Screening and Monitoring on Credit Rationing of SMEs

In this paper, we seek to empirically assess which determinants of the capability and incentives of banks to screen and monitor firms are significant in explaining credit rationing to Italian SMEs. After testing for the presence of non‐random selection bias and the potential endogeneity of some determinants of interest, the probit model results we obtain suggest that the average banking size and the multiple banking relationship phenomenon are statistically significant factors affecting credit rationing, presumably through their impact on the aforementioned banks' capability and incentives. Other potential determinants of banks' incentives to monitor and screen, such as local banking competition and firm' capacity to collateralize, are never significant. However, when we split the sample according to the level of competition in credit markets, we find that the estimated marginal effects of all significant determinants of interest are larger in absolute value than those obtained when using the whole sample.     

Credit information sharing and banking crises: An empirical investigation

We study the effect of credit information sharing on the likelihood of banking crises using a comprehensive cross-country dataset for the period from 1975 to 2006. The empirical analysis shows that credit information sharing reduces the likelihood of banking crises and it does more so in low income countries. The effect is statistically and economically significant, and applies to both public registries and private bureaus. Furthermore, we show that credit information sharing reduces the impact of rapid credit growth on banking crises. Specifically, rapid credit growth is less likely to lead to a banking crisis in countries with credit information sharing.     

Microfinance and Female Group Action in Bangladesh

This paper provides evidence that participation in microfinance programs may increase the likelihood of female group action against domestic violence and spousal abandonment. Although female empowerment has been an explicit target of many microfinance programs, the literature remains conflicted regarding the magnitude and direction of impact. Using multiple estimation methods with data from Bangladesh, I find that women from villages with microfinance programs are substantially more likely than women from non‐program villages to have taken group action by publicly protesting when they observed a woman being beaten, abandoned or divorced. Taking advantage of eligibility requirements for program participation, I further show that women from program villages who are eligible to participate are substantially more likely than non‐eligible women from the same village to have taken group action, which suggests that these effects are in fact related to the microfinance programs themselves.     

Estimating the direct impact of bank liquidity shocks on the real economy: Evidence from letter‐of‐credit import transactions in Colombia

This study identifies and provides an estimate of the impact of bank liquidity shocks on real economic activity by exploring letter‐of‐credit import transactions in Colombia during the 2008 to 2009 global financial crisis. The detailed dataset on letter‐of‐credit transactions allows for exploiting within‐importer–exporter variation across issuing banks. The study finds substantial effects of bank liquidity shocks on letter‐of‐credit import transactions: banks that were more vulnerable to adverse liquidity shocks—proxied by the ex ante reliance on wholesale funding or borrowings from foreign banks—reduced letter‐of‐credit issuances more in both intensive and extensive margins. The study also confirms that it had real effects: importer–exporter pairs that relied more on letter‐of‐credit transactions experienced a greater reduction in their total imports in response to adverse bank liquidity shocks.     

Beyond technical skills training: The impact of credit counseling on the entrepreneurial behavior of Ugandan youth

There is low take‐up of financial credit among youth in Uganda because potential beneficiaries perceive associated risks as high. This study assesses the determinants of entrepreneurial risk tolerance among Ugandan youth using experimental data from a randomized control trial and a real‐life investment‐risk experiment. Credit counseling was provided to young men and women aged 18–35 who owned a business to educate them about the obligations and commitments associated with financial credit. The intervention had a significant impact on demand for credit and related intermediate outcomes such as ownership of a bank account and investment in assets. The study finds that youth exhibited lower demand for credit after business training because of increased awareness regarding the actual risks associated with receiving credit. Our findings reinforce national strategies to promote soft skills for business entrepreneurship that extend beyond standard business training.     

Does the impact of private education on growth differ at different levels of credit market development?

Using an overlapping generations model, we show that the impact of private financing of education on growth depends on credit market development, being positive when credit markets are adequately developed but negative if sufficiently low levels of credit market development occur alongside relatively high private financing intensities. Employing cross-country data, we find that reduced-form growth relationships are statistically significant and robust under various controls and samples. We also lay out conditions under which economies with missing credit markets are dynamically efficient and outperform, in terms of growth, economies with complete credit markets. The latter may explain large cross-country differences in savings and growth, while facilitating the evaluation of policies on financing education.