HOW SHOULD WE MEASURE THE “ECONOMIC” ASPECTS OF WELL‐BEING?

The Human Development Index (HDI) uses GDP per capita to measure “command over resources,” which implicitly makes the strong value judgment that inequality and insecurity do not matter. This paper presents revised estimates of the Index of Economic Well‐Being (IEWB) for the United States, the U.K., Canada, Australia, Germany, Norway and Sweden for the period 1980 to 2001 and demonstrates that replacing an index of the log per capita incomes with our IEWB as the “command over resources” component in the Human Development Index (HDI) affects the level and trend of the HDI, even among affluent nations. Because the IEWB recognizes four dimensions of command over resources (Current effective per capita Consumption flows, Net societal Accumulation of stocks of productive resources, Income Distribution and Economic Security), its use has a particularly large impact where underlying trends in these components diverge (e.g. the U.K. or the United States).     

BARGAINING OVER TAXES AND ENTITLEMENTS IN THE ERA OF UNEQUAL GROWTH

Entitlements have become an increasing component of total government spending in the United States over the last six decades. Using a political-economy model where parties bargain over taxes and entitlements, we argue that such dynamics can be explained by two factors: “unequal growth,” where top earners became richer while the income of the bottom 50% stagnated, and budget rules that provide bargaining power to low-income earners through a “status quo effect.” In a model calibrated to the United States, we show that sustained bargaining power by a party representing the poor results in a rising share of entitlements consistent with the data.     

Argentina's Lost Decade

Argentina suffered a depression in the 1980s that was as severe as the Great Depression experienced in the United States and Germany in the interwar period. Our paper examines this depression from the perspective of growth theory, taking total factor productivity as exogenous. The predictions of the growth model conform rather well with the observations during the “lost decade” years. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Codes: E32, O40, N46.     

EMPLOYER‐PROVIDED HEALTH INSURANCE AND JOB MOBILITY: DID THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT REDUCE JOB LOCK?

Many have argued that concerns over health insurance reduce labor market mobility in the United States, causing a “job lock” effect. We take advantage of the novel natural experiment created by the Affordable Care Act's dependent coverage mandate to estimate the magnitude of the job lock effect for young adults. Using the 2008–2013 Current Population Survey and a difference‐in‐difference research design, we find that the expansion of dependent coverage did not increase job mobility, suggesting that job lock is not a major concern for young adults. (JEL J62, I13, I18)     

CAN HOUSEHOLDS AND WELFARE STATES MITIGATE RISING EARNINGS INSTABILITY?

We compare the evolution of earnings instability in Germany and the United Kingdom, two countries which stand for different types of welfare states. Deploying data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP) and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), we estimate permanent and transitory variances of male income over the period 1984–2009 and 1991–2006, respectively. Studies in this literature generally use individual labor earnings. To uncover the role of welfare state and households in smoothening earnings shocks, we compute different income concepts ranging from gross earnings to net equivalent household income. We find evidence that the overall inequality of earnings in Germany and the United Kingdom has been rising throughout the period due to both higher permanent earnings inequality and higher earnings volatility. However, taking institutions of the welfare state and risk‐sharing households into account, we find that the volatility of net household income has remained fairly stable. Furthermore, redistribution and risk insurance provided by the welfare state is more pronounced in Germany than in the United Kingdom.     

Inequality does cause underdevelopment: Insights from a new instrument

Consistent with the provocative hypothesis of Engerman and Sokoloff [Engermann, Stanley and Kenneth Sokoloff (1997), “Factor Endowments, Institutions, and Differential Paths of Growth Among New World Economies: A View from Economic Historians of the United States,” in Stephen Haber, ed. How Latin America Fell Behind, Stanford CA: Stanford University Press., Sokoloff, Kenneth L. and Stanley L. Engerman (2000), Institutions, Factor Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World, Journal of Economic Perspectives v14, n3, 217–32.], this paper confirms with cross-country data that agricultural endowments predict inequality and inequality predicts development. The use of agricultural endowments –specifically the abundance of land suitable for growing wheat relative to that suitable for growing sugarcane – as an instrument for inequality is this paper's approach to problems of measurement and endogeneity of inequality. The paper finds inequality also affects other development outcomes – institutions and schooling –which the literature has emphasized as mechanisms by which higher inequality lowers per capita income. It tests the inequality hypothesis for development, institutional quality and schooling against other recent hypotheses in the literature. While finding some evidence consistent with other development fundamentals, the paper finds high inequality to independently be a large and statistically significant barrier to prosperity, good quality institutions, and high schooling.     

A Note on Viable Proposals*

Sengupta and Sengupta (“Viable Proposals,”International Economic Review 35 (1994), 347–59.) consider a payoff vector of a TU‐game as a viable proposal if it challenges each legitimate contender. They show that for each game the set of viable proposals is nonempty. Their proof, however, has a flaw. I present a proof based upon a result by Kalai and Schmeidler (“An Admissible Set Occurring in Various Bargaining Situations,”Journal of Economic Theory 14 (1977), 402–11) .     

CROSS-NATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN INCOME MOBILITY: EVIDENCE FROM CANADA, THE UNITED STATES, GREAT BRITAIN AND GERMANY

Using a standardized dataset, this paper compares the differences in income mobility among four countries—Canada, the United States, Great Britain and Germany—during the 1990s and early 2000s. The results suggest that, in general, there exist diverse levels of income mobility across the four countries. Although the precise magnitudes of the differences are sensitive to the measurement method used, incomes in Britain are by far the most mobile. Our findings also reveal country-specific driving forces that underlie income mobility. The stabilizing effects of government transfers are most pronounced in Canada. In Germany, it is the progressive tax system that offsets earnings variations and results in smaller changes in longitudinal incomes. Moreover, we also discover that demographic factors provided only limited explanation of differences in income mobility.     

Testing the relationships between energy consumption and income in G7 countries with nonlinear causality tests

Knowing the real causal links between energy consumption and national income is crucial for policy decision making. In this article, we address this issue for the G7 countries by using two nonlinear causality tests in the sense of Hiemstra and Jones (1994), and Kyrtsou and Labys (2006). Our results reveal some new, but mixed results. Hiemstra–Jones test indicates unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to GDP for the United Kingdom, while a bidirectional causality between energy consumption and GDP is found for Canada, France, Japan and United States. On the other hand, Kyrtsou–Labys test shows that a unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption to GDP for France and the United States, and from GDP to energy consumption for Germany. Overall, our findings suggest that policy implications of the energy-GDP links should be interpreted with caution, given the test-dependent and country-specific results.     

Social Security Disability Insurance and intergenerational economic mobility

Economic opportunity in the United States is shaped by parental health and disability. We hypothesize that Disability Insurance (DI) may mitigate the observed pattern. Using linked survey and administrative data, we find children of work-limited parents have 4.1 percentiles less upward economic mobility and 4.3 percentiles more downward mobility relative to children of non-limited parents. Despite poorer health, children of parents initially awarded DI experience a negligible mobility gap relative to peers whose parents never apply to DI and 3.6 percentiles more upward mobility than peers of parents who are initially denied benefits—suggesting DI may moderate economic mobility.     

Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data

We use the Backus and Kehoe (American Economic Review, 1992, 82, 864–888) long, low-frequency data on real GNP/GDP, prices, and money for Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States to examine the long-run neutrality proposition. In doing so, we apply the Fisher and Seater (American Economic Review, 1993, 83, 402–415) non-structural methodology, paying explicit attention to the univariate time-series properties of the variables. We conclude that the data are generally supportive of the quantity-theoretic proposition that money is long-run neutral.     

PROXIMITY AND VOTING FOR PROFESSIONAL SPORTING STADIUMS: THE PATTERN OF SUPPORT FOR THE SEAHAWK STADIUM REFERENDUM

This paper evaluates voting behavior on the Seahawk Stadium referendum in the State of Washington. For our empirical strategy, we implement both the linear probability model and a group logit model, which gives greater weight to voting areas with greater number of votes cast. We find that voting support was lowest among those living closest to the proposed stadium site, while voting support was highest among those within “easy access” of the stadium. This nonlinear distance effect differs from the typical “proximity” effect found in most professional sporting stadiums in the United States; however, it is consistent with a referendum‐voting outcome for a professional soccer stadium in Germany and public projects such as national forests. (JEL R53, H71, L83)     

THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANALYTICAL TOOL*

The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts. The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.     

Trade,Determinants, and Causality: A Case of Hong Kong's Exports to The United States

This paper examines recent development in Hong Kong's exports to the United States. It explains the trade flows by estimating five demand-equations for exports. Besides, vector autoregressions are fitted to test the causal relationship among exports, exchange rates and income. Our study suggests that a sustained high growth rate of Hong Kong's exports of principal commodities to the United States contribute to the chronical bilateral trade surplus for Hong Kong. Variations in income and exchange rates, the major determinants of Hong Kong's exports, “cause” exports to change as indicated in the causality test. [420]     

Income Inequality and Income Mobility in the Scandinavian Countries Compared to the United States

This paper compares income inequality and income mobility in the Scandinavian countries and the United States during 1980–90. The results suggest that inequality is greater in the United States than in the Scandinavian countries and that this inequality ranking of countries remains unchanged when the accounting period of income is extended from one to eleven years. The pattern of mobility turns out to be remarkably similar, in the sense that the proportionate reduction in inequality from extending the accounting period of income is much the same. But we do find evidence of greater dispersion of first differences of relative earnings and income in the United States. Relative income changes are associated with changes in labor market and marital status in all four countries, but the magnitude of such changes are largest in the United States.     

US–Japan Trade Frictions: The Past,the Present,and Implications for the US–China Trade War

The United States and Japan have been involved in trade frictions over a number of products including textiles, steel, automobiles, semi‐conductors, and agricultural products over the last 50 years. US–Japan trade frictions have taken basically two forms: (i) the United States attempting to restrict Japan's exports to the United States; and (ii) the United States attempting to increase its exports to Japan by “opening” the Japanese market. By putting pressure on Japan to adopt necessary measures, the United States sought to achieve two main objectives: (i) to reduce its trade deficit vis‐à‐vis Japan; and (ii) to protect and/or promote US industries. The United States failed to achieve the first objective, while some success was achieved for the second objective. The United States triggered a trade war against China with the objectives of: (i) reducing the bilateral trade deficit; and (ii) stopping unfair trade practices by Chinese firms such as violations of intellectual property rights and forced technology transfer. Based on the experiences from the US–Japan trade frictions, the United States may achieve some success for the second objective, but not for the first. The chances of achieving the second objective would increase if the United States cooperates with countries such as Japan and the European Union, which are faced with similar problems.     

A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF ECONOMIC WELL-BEING FOR GERMANY AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper, using six waves of data (1984-89) from the United States Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), compares economic well-being using single year income, multi-year income, and wealth as measures. We find inequality to be greater in the United States than in Germany regardless of the measure used. However, the relative degree of inequality varies across measures. When we disaggregate our data by age and gender categories, in general we find greater inequality in the United States, but wealth inequality among older Germans is greater than it is among older Americans.     

An empirical database for a general equilibrium model of the European Communities

We document the main features of a database that has been constructed for use in an applied general equilibrium model. The model is designed to evaluate policies of the European Community (EC), including membership. The database includes each of the major members of the EC in the 1970's: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Denmark and Ireland. It also includes three further trading regions: the United States, Japan and a residual Rest of World. Four aspects of our database are documented. The first is the collection and use of “raw data” from a number of sources for 1975. The second aspect is the generation of a multi-year database, with 1975 serving as a “reference year” for temporal updates to more recent years. The third aspect is the application of the database to the calibration of a “generic” general-equilibrium trade model. The final aspect is the use of the database to study the historical accession of the United Kingdom to the EC.     

DRUG POLICY AND INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY IN THE UNITED STATES

A conviction for drug possession blocks some of the most common pathways through which individuals from low income families achieve upward economic mobility in the United States, such as access to higher education, entry‐level employment, and military service. These considerations are of growing importance because the number of drug‐related arrests have nearly quadrupled since 1980. This article estimates the effect of a conviction for drug possession on earnings mobility using a sample of individuals born between 1980 and 1984, some of the first cohorts to come of age in the context of intensive U.S. drug criminalization and enforcement. To distinguish the effect of a drug conviction from the effect of drug use or general criminality, I compare mobility among individuals with drug convictions to control groups who self‐report significant drug use and who have had interactions with the criminal justice system that did not lead to a drug conviction. I find that relative to these groups, a drug conviction reduces the probability of transitioning upward from various points in the lower half of the income distribution by 10–15 percentage points, or as much as 50%, and that these effects are substantially stronger for non‐whites than for whites. These findings suggest that a policy of decriminalizing nonviolent drug possession would substantially increase intergenerational mobility among low income populations, and this effect should be weighed alongside more conventional costs and benefits in formulating optimal drug policy. (JEL J38, J15, K42)