Understanding political−economic development in the American South

We propose an empirical strategy to adjudicate between competing explanations of political–economic development in the American South. This strategy evaluates the dynamic relationship between partisan control of representative institutions and economic performance, both before and after major partisan realignment forces and economic conditions had structurally transformed the American South. The political–economic development of low‐capacity Southern states since the early 1980s reflects a “virtuous cycle” of rising income growth and partisan balance of state legislatures mutually reinforcing one another. These findings reconcile conflicting claims regarding the catalytic nature of political–economic development coevolution in the American South and have broader implications for the study of comparative political–economic development.     

韩台企业间技术网络的比较

对现代科技创新来说，网络组织是日益重要的制度安排。在全球化条件下，跨越国境的企业间技术网络已得到了很大的发展，同时，当地企业间技术网络的重要性日益突现。韩台经验说明，进入跨国企业技术网络是发展中国家获取先进技术的基本途径，但由于政府政策等因素的影响，当地企业间技术网络的不同安排导致了“集体学习”效应的重大差异。本文通过韩台企业间技术网络的比较，扼要讨论了对我国科技发展所提供的借鉴。……     

Cultural Identity and Securitising the Korean Peninsula: Transformations in the South Korean Security Narrative

In response to enlargement, the EU’s ‘Wider Europe’ initiative and emerging European Neighbourhood Policy envisage ‘positive interdependence’ with neighbouring countries of the ‘East’ and ‘South’. ‘Partnerships’ are seen as an alternative to direct EU membership and thus as a sustainable incentive for regional cooperation. In order to be effective, such regional partnerships must transcend market logics and accommodate heterogeneous economic and socio-political realities. However, Wider Europe is characterised, in terms of realpolitik, by competing rationales of ‘stability’, ‘prosperity’, ‘sustainability’ and ‘security’ and thus by considerable potential for exclusionary policies. It is unclear whether exclusion can be counterbalanced by multilevel and ‘de-centred’ forms of regional engagement that also define Wider Europe. Applying a pragmatic approach, discussion will centre on rationales, discourses and reconceptualisations of European space upon which the notion of Wider Europe is being constructed and on whether they signal gradual changes in the direction of a ‘post-Westphalian’ geopolitics.     

韩国及印度国际化轨迹研究

纵观企业国际化的发展,每个国家都有其不同的发展历史和发展特点,在倡导中国企业“走出去”的今天,认真分析主要发展中国家的“走出去”模式,了解全球化发展的轨迹,有利于我国企业在“走出去”的过程中找到发展的机遇。同时,借鉴国外“走出去”的模式,对其进行适当的修改可以直接为我国企业所用。本文试图从20世纪60年代开始撰写,沿着时代背景的发展,一直探索21世纪初的企业到国际化发展情况。本文选择了印度、韩国两个发展中国家,力求从上述国家的全球化模式、全球化动因、政府支持及当地背景等方面探索全球国际化的轨迹。     

日本、韩国住房保障制度及对我国的启示

住房保障制度体系的完善,事关国民的切身利益与社会的和谐稳定。目前,我国正处于快速的城市化和工业化进程之中,面临着一些与发达国家曾经历过的类似的房地产市场问题。笔者运用调查研究与比较研究方法,总结了日本和韩国住房保障制度的基本安排、管理机构和制度特点,借鉴其成功经验,针对我国现行住房保障制度存在的问题,提出了强化政府住房保障政策、增加中小户型保障性住房供给、拓宽住房保障资金的融资渠道等一系列对策建议。     

Fiscal policy and economic activity in South Asia

This paper analyzes whether fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies or smoothens business cycle fluctuations. It estimates several econometric models to explore the cyclicality of government spending and tax buoyancy. In South Asia, tax revenue increases less than one to one with changes in gross domestic product (GDP), but public spending increases more than proportionally. For each percentage point change in GDP growth, government expenditure changes by 1.3 percentage points. While changes in tax revenue have no significant impact on economic activity, the government spending multiplier is positive and significant: each additional US dollar (USD) of spending leads to an immediate increase in GDP of 0.2 USD and to an increase of 0.4 USD in the medium run. The impact of public spending on economic activity is entirely due to capital expenditure, which is also more procyclical. Procyclical public spending and a positive expenditure multiplier imply that fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies boom‐and‐bust cycles. These results are in line with those of other emerging markets and developing economies and robust to different model specifications and estimation strategies.     

Sex Differentials in Earnings in the South Korean Labor Market

We examine gender differences in earnings among South Korean workers in 1988 – the year the South Korean National Assembly enacted the Equal Employment Opportunity Act. Using the "88 Occupational Wage Bargaining Survey on the Actual Condition," we calculate women's mean earnings as a percentage of men's mean earnings by major industrial category and educational attainment. We find a larger wage gap among clerical and sales workers than production workers or professionals. Generally, the more education a woman has, the smaller the gap between her earnings and those of her male counterparts. Women with a middle-school education have a mean income 53.5 percent that of comparable men, while the female-to-male wage ratio among college graduates is 76.1 percent. We analyze wage differences separately for women and men. Following Ronald Oaxaca's (1973) work, we decompose male–female wage differentials. We also calculate a discrimination coefficient. Our work shows that, all else equal, men earn from 33.6 percent to 46.9 percent more than women with comparable skills. We attribute the difference to gender discrimination.     

Diasporic Stances: Comparing the Historical Geographic Antecedents of Korean and German Migration Decisions in Kazakhstan

This essay explores the historical geographic antecedents of migration decisions among Koreans and Germans in Kazakhstan as evidence of the importance of space-time approaches to socio-political phenomena. Both groups came to Central Asia under similar circumstances as ‘punished peoples’ but reacted very differently to Kazakhstan's independence. Koreans have largely opted to remain in Kazakhstan and re-imagine themselves as hybrid members of the Korean diaspora and the Kazakhstani civic nation. The majority of Germans, by contrast, have opted to migrate to Germany and abandon Kazakhstan. I argue that despite significant similarities in their historical geographic experiences within Tsarist Russia and the USSR, the unique spatio-temporal biographies of each group have configured their respective homeland conceptions differently. Contingency, rather than some a priori pattern of territorialisation, is clearly evident in each group's receptivity to migration possibilities.     

论韩国新村运动在化解社会矛盾中的作用

20世纪70年代发起的韩国新村运动,从一场针对农村基础设施进行改建的物质运动,逐渐演变成一场提升国民精神的运动,有效地化解了韩国经济社会发展中的矛盾。研究其化解矛盾成功的经验,既与韩国政府紧抓经济发展不放松的决策有关,也与韩国政府选择从建设农民基础设施入手的有效方法相连。     

Long-run determinant of Korean economic growth: empirical evidence from manufacturing

This paper challenges the recent contrarian view that the phenomenal growth of East Asian NICs is fuelled mainly by the accumulation of production inputs not by TFP growth. To appraise this view, we investigated and re-evaluated South Korean manufacturing growth (1973(Q1)–1993(Q4)). Using Johansen's cointegrating analysis, our results show that South Korean manufacturing appears to have increasing returns to scale in production technology. The ‘learning by doing’ effect defined by Lucas (1988) is empirically supported. This effect appears to be observed as a long-run determinant of South Korean manufacturing growth. Consequently, South Korean manufacturing growth can be described by an endogenous economic growth model, such as the Lucas (1988) model, contradicting the contrarian view.     

Accounting for South Korean GDP Growth: Index-Number and Econometric Estimates

The paper estimates the contribution of each one of the major determinants of South-Korean nominal GDP growth: technological change, movements in the terms of trade, increases in the endowments of labor and capital, and changes in domestic output prices. An index-number technique is used as well as an econometric approach. Both have a tight theoretical foundation, being based on the GDP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy.     

Return patterns of South Korean stocks following large price shocks

This study tests the market efficiency of the South Korean stock market by examining returns on stocks of the constituents of the KOSPI 50 from 2000 to 2014 following large 1-month price decreases and increases. An exponential GARCH (EGARCH) event study framework is used to analyse the stock returns. The results show that large price shocks, positive and negative, are likely to be followed by positive market returns. Moreover, the results show an increase in the beta of stocks in the years following a large price shock. The overall results therefore support the Uncertain Information Hypothesis. However, beginning in 2008, return patterns more closely reflect those hypothesised by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, possibly due to increased participation by international investors. The observed returns following large price increases and decreases can be partially explained by changes in the Korean won to US dollar exchange rate and the trading behaviour of foreign investors.     

Effect of South Korean Pop Culture on the Potential Tourists from Chinese Mainland

Following along with South Korean Pop culture sweeping across Chinese Mainland, Chinese market of South Korea tour is developing rapidly. An analysis demonstrates that the movie and television industry of South Korea is one of the most essential factors to attract the potential tourist from China. South Korean Pop culture is directly affecting rather the image of South Korean as a tourist destination than tourists＇ purchasing. And the paper suggests a set of ＂4S＂ strategy for South Korean to combine the elements of South Korean movies with those of tourism, so as to create an industrial development pattern characterized as ＂movies ＋ tourism＂.     

湿地保护政策比较:韩国经验与中国智慧

中国和韩国在湿地保护政策的演进上有着很大的相似性。目前,我国湿地政策的演进正相当于韩国的第二阶段,分析韩国第二阶段湿地保护实践中应对矛盾的策略,对我国现阶段湿地保护是一种有益的借鉴。同时,应立足我国国情,充分挖掘本土资源,完善和创新湿地保护政策,使我国湿地得到全面有效保护。     

Crisis and Recovery: What We Have Learned from the South Korean Experience?*

This paper analyzes the process of recovery from the 1997 financial crisis in South Korea, and draws some lessons from it. The fast restoration of financial stability due to early closure of non‐viable financial institutions and quick resolution of non‐performing loans was critical for the speedy recovery of the South Korean economy. The swift adjustment in fiscal and monetary policies in addition to the large depreciation of real exchange rates also supported the fast recovery. Corporate and government bond markets played an important role in the financial restructuring and macroeconomic adjustment process. Structural reforms helped to alleviate the weaknesses in the corporate sector, particularly in chaebol groups. However, the fast recovery also generated unwelcome side‐effects. Because of aggressive fiscal expansion through government‐guaranteed bonds and public credit guarantee programs, sovereign liabilities increased greatly and transparency of the official fiscal stance deteriorated. Thanks to structural reform, corporate and financial sectors began to recognize the importance of micro risk management, but increased risk aversion contributed to the slowdown of corporate investment and, therefore, reduced long‐run growth perspective in South Korea. How to revive long‐term growth rates remains an important question in South Korea despite fast recovery from the crisis.     

美国经济等待"软着陆"

充当全球经济"火车头"的美国经济显出了疲态.美国商务部公布的最新统计数据显示,美国经济今年第三季度仅增长1.6%,不仅远远低于市场预期,而且创下了近4年来的最低季度增幅.     

Human capital and measurable dynamic gains from economic integration: An application to the economic integration of North and South America

The paper looks at the source of dynamic gains to trade liberalization using a two-country model with both physical and human capital accumulation. The model is calibrated and used to examine the effect of the economic integration of Canada and the United States with Latin America. The analysis assumes that differences in productivity levels between regions are due entirely to differences in human and physical capital endowments. Key assumptions are that capital is internationally mobile and human capital formation is income constrained. The simulated impact of moving to a hemispheric free trade area is significant. The long-run impacts are also different from the short-run efficiency effect predicted by conventional static triangle-rectangle analysis. The long-runmultiplier effect on static output gains are on the order of 2.0 to 2.5 for the South—that is long-run output gains are 2.0 to 2.5 times predicted short-run static gains. In the case of the North, static predictions of gain are ambiguous in sign over the longer run; in some cases there are small dynamic gains-in others. small losses. Investment diversion toward Latin America is a prominent characteristic of the results.     

Real-time forecasts of economic activity for Latin American economies

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates nowcasts and forecasts of real GDP growth using five models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.