Technological leadership and sectorial employment growth: A spatial econometric analysis for U.S. counties

This paper studies the determinants of technological catch‐up considering spatial and sectoral aggregation of industries. We investigate how geographical and technological proximity to the technology leader impact regional employment growth. We model technological progress by means of a hierarchical process of catch‐up to the technology leader. We also incorporate measures for knowledge spillover effects to test the roles of competition, specialisation, and diversity at the industry level. Empirical results using data at the county level for different economic sectors (2‐dig NAICS) for the United States indicate that human capital plays a crucial role in promoting sectoral employment growth. The association between technological/geographical distance to the technology leader and employment growth varies across sectors.     

交通基础设施、空间溢出与经济增长:来自中国的实证研究

This paper develops an empirical model to test the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on economic growth. It uses spatial econometric techniques and provincial panel data of China from 1993 to 2004 to analyze the contribution of transport infrastructure to the economic growth of local province and its spatial spillover effects on the economic growth of other provinces. The main findings include: (1) Transport infrastructure and economic growth of China show an evident pattern of spatial clustering. They largely congregate in developed eastern coastal regions, forming a gradient gradually diminishing from east to west. (2) Output elasticity of local transport infrastructure is 0.106, between the values calculated by early researchers with time series data and panel data. (3) Spatial output spillovers from transport infrastructure are largely positive, but evidences of negative spatial spillovers are also found with population density spatial weights matrix model.      

都市圈经济增长的空间相依性研究——基于中国三大都市圈的实证研究

There are a number of theoretical reasons why cities interact with each other. Such spatial interdependence has been largely ignored by the empirical literature with only a couple of recent papers accounting for such issues in their estimation. This paper takes spatial dependence panel data models in specifying and testing to analyze three metropolitan growth behaviors in China. We find that controlling for fixed-effects allows us to disentangle the effect of spatial dependence from that of spatial heterogeneity and that of omitted variables. The estimated relationships of traditional determinants of urbanization are robust to inclusion of terms to capture spatial interdependence, even though such interdependence is estimated to be significant. Additionally, the three metropolitan areas might be said to represent three distinct stages during the urbanization of China.      

Regional productivity variation and the impact of public capital stock: an analysis with spatial interaction,with reference to Spain

In this article, we examine whether variations in the level of public capital across Spain's Provinces affected productivity levels over the period 1996 to 2005. The analysis is motivated by contemporary urban economics theory, involving a production function for the competitive sector of the economy (‘industry’) which includes the level of composite services derived from ‘service’ firms under monopolistic competition. The outcome is potentially increasing returns to scale resulting from pecuniary externalities deriving from internal increasing returns in the monopolistic competition sector. We extend the production function by also making (log) labour efficiency a function of (log) total public capital stock and (log) human capital stock, leading to a simple and empirically tractable reduced form linking productivity level to density of employment, human capital and public capital stock. The model is further extended to include technological externalities or spillovers across provinces. Using panel data methodology, we find significant elasticities for total capital stock and for human capital stock, and a significant impact for employment density. The finding that the effect of public capital is significantly different from zero, indicating that it has a direct effect even after controlling for employment density, is contrary to some of the earlier research findings which leave the question of the impact of public capital unresolved.     

Spatial variations in the relationship between economic diversity and stability

Using US county-level data, we explore how economic diversity influenced economic stability over the period of the Great Recession. We find that higher diversity is associated with greater stability, but there are distinct spatial patterns and the relationship does not hold for much of the central part of the US.     

Manufacturing FDI and economic growth: evidence from Asian economies

Previous empirical studies on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth generate mixed results. This article suggests that the ambiguous results might be caused by the use of total FDI. We study the heterogeneous effects of different sector-level FDI inflows on host country's economic growth. Data from 12 Asian economies over the period of 1987 to 1997 are employed. Strong evidence shows that FDI in manufacturing sector has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in the host economies. FDI inflows in nonmanufacturing sectors do not play a significant role in enhancing economic growth. Furthermore, without the decomposition of total FDI inflows, the effect of manufacturing FDI on host country's economic growth is understated by at least 48%.     

British regional growth and sectoral trends: global and local spatial econometric approaches

This article looks beneath the surface of British sub-regional aggregate Gross Value Added (GVA) growth over the period 1995 to 2007, by examining how the differing growth dynamics of the secondary and services sectors have influenced the overall regional growth process. A spatial econometric analysis is undertaken which tests regional secondary and services real GVA per capita for absolute and conditional convergence at the NUTS 3 level. Both local and global spatial analysis techniques are utilized in order to gain a detailed insight into the growth process over the period 1995 to 2007.     

全面推行国际财务报告准则与盈余质量——来自欧盟上市公司的经验证据

本文以2000至2007年具有独特制度背景的欧盟15国资本市场上市公司为研究样本,对欧盟2005年1月1日开始全面推行国际财务报告准则并加强各国会计协调是否提高了欧盟上市公司盈余质量进行了研究。本文以截面操纵性应计利润绝对值作为盈余质量的替代变量,研究结果发现欧盟全面推行国际财务报告准则并加强各国会计协调后上市公司具有显著更低的截面操纵性应计利润绝对值,这表明欧盟全面推行国际财务报告准则并加强各国会计协调后显著提高了欧盟上市公司盈余质量。本文进行了一系列稳健性检验证实了上述研究结论是稳健的。     

Effects of spatial density on veterinarian income: where are all of the veterinarians?

With increased numbers of veterinarians in the market, it is critical to understand how this increased competition affects income potential at multiple levels. This study presents an empirical approach that incorporates local and nonlocalised spatial competition of firms into one model. By analysing the market for veterinarians using a spatial weight matrix approach, we are able to quantify localized and nonlocalised competition which assists in defining relevant market areas for veterinarians. Specifically, increased density within their county and surrounding counties decreases veterinarian income. Thus, the potential market area for veterinarians is larger than the local/county market in which they practice. This is important for veterinarians when choosing a location to practice, as they must consider the competition and demand in local and non-local areas.     

Financial inclusion: measurement,spatial effects and influencing factors

Using the index of financial inclusion and the World Bank Global Findex database, this study measures the level of financial inclusion across countries. The results reveal a geographical spatial aggregation distribution in which developed European and North American countries enjoy higher levels of financial inclusion than the less developed countries of Africa and most of Asia. Accordingly, our spatial analysis proves our hypothesis and reveals dependence and aggregation effects among countries. Then, we employ spatial econometric research to identify those factors significantly associated with financial inclusion. The results show that an individual’s income, education and use of communications equipment are important factors that explain the level of financial inclusion, while financial depth and banking health status are the main determinants. Building an inclusive financial system is an important means for most countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.     

Institutional Reform and Co-Decision in the European Union

This paper studies the Treaty of Amsterdam's reform of the co-decision procedure in the European Union. The paper presents spatial models of the procedure, and examines whether the Treaty significantly alters it. The theory analyzes the implications of the Treaty for the equilibrium EU policies and the institutions' powers. It characterizes sets of policies the Commission can successfully propose under the old procedure, and sets of policies the Council and the Parliament can successfully propose as joint texts under the new procedure. The paper concludes that the new procedure does not lead to a further increase in the Parliament's powers, as intended by the drafters of the Treaty. Rather it finds that the Treaty eliminates the Commission's power under co-decision and may increase indecision.     

Entrepreneurship and income inequality: a spatial panel data analysis

The main objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality. We use a spatial panel data analysis for both 33 high-income countries and 39 middle- and low-income countries over a period of 11 years. Estimation results and rigorous diagnostic analysis suggest that: (i) there is a strong support for the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality espoused by the Kuznets Curve hypothesis; (ii) the relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality is negatively moderated by country’s level of economic development; (iii) regardless of income inequality levels, entrepreneurship has a non-linear relationship with income per capita; (iv) gross domestic expenditure on research and development exhibits significant negative impacts on entrepreneurship; (v) significant mixed effects on the likelihood of entrepreneurial activity are observed with governance, globalization, population growth rate, and competitiveness variables; (vi) there are significant mixed feedback effects on entrepreneurship; and (vii) there are statistically significant, positive as well as negative spatial spillovers to country-level entrepreneurial activity.     

Spatial stochastic frontier models: controlling spatial global and local heterogeneity

In the last decade special attention has been focused on estimating a firm’s efficiency and productivity; Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) has been one of the most used techniques that allows the separation of inefficiency from stochastic noise, assuming homogeneous technology is available to all producers and that there is independence between observations. However, this second assumption is violated data are spatial auto-correlated, thus biasing statistical inference. Attention has, therefore, shifted to models that allow the controlling of heterogeneity introducing, in the model or in the error term, contextual variables correlated with inefficiency. In our paper we propose viewing the spatial external factors (natural or artificial) in a new way: instead of identifying ex-ante a multitude of determinants, often statistically and economically difficult to detect, we suggested using an original methodology that, following a classical SFA approach, splits efficiency into three components: the first one is linked to the spatial lag, the second one to the DMU’s specificities, and the third to the error term. Finally, we tested our method using simulated data and examined the Italian wine sector, testing the ability to control spatial, global and local heterogeneity.     

The Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Some Evidence from the European Union and Portugal

Observing the statistical relationship between business cycles correlation and trade intensity in the European Union, euro zone, and the Portuguese economy, we conclude that there is, in general, a positive effect that supports the endogeneity argument proposed by Frankel and Rose (The Economic Journal 108(449):pp. 1009–1025, 1998). However, if we analyse this relationship in sub-periods – 1967–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1992, and 1993–2003 – we conclude that endogeneity hypothesis just hold in the first two, although the correlations are increasing. This could mean that, after the Single European Act in 1986, other forces beyond trade are contributing to business cycle synchronization. The Portuguese business cycle correlation with the European Union and the Euro zone had also increased in these four decades, despite the fact that endogeneity hypothesis is at a 90 percent confidence level. We also analyse the bilateral relationships between the Portuguese economy and the other European Union countries and find that the endogeneity is confirmed in just four cases: Spain, Ireland, Netherlands, and UK.     

Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: A model-based fiscal analysis

We present a model-based measure of sovereign credit ratings derived solely from the fiscal position of a country: a forecast of its future debt liabilities, and its potential to use fiscal policy to repay these. We use this measure to calculate credit ratings for 14 European countries over the period 1995–2012. This measure identifies a European sovereign debt crisis almost two years before the official ratings of the credit rating agencies.     

A spatial analysis of R&D: the role of industry proximity

This paper employs individual firm data in order to check the existence of industry-spatial effects alongside other microeconomic determinants of R&D investment. Spatial proximity is defined by a measure of firms’ industry distance based on trade intensity between sectors. The spatial model specified here refers to the combined spatial-autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances. In modelling the outcome for each location as dependent on a weighted average of the outcomes of other locations, outcomes are determined simultaneously. The results of the spatial estimation suggest that in their R&D decision firms benefit from spillovers originating from neighbouring industries.     

Tax competition and tax structure in open federal economies: Evidence from OECD countries with implications for the European Union

Tax competition arguments suggest that governments that operate in an open economy (such as local governments) should not and will not rely on non-benefit taxes, such as the income tax. Yet we observe reliance on income taxes by local governments in many countries, and such reliance changes over time. Evidence from a panel data set of 13 OECD countries over the period 1975-1984 suggests that competition between levels of government (resulting in a vertical fiscal externality) and between governments at the same level (resulting in a horizontal fiscal externality) provide some economic rationale for these changes. Moreover, the evidence indicates that the vertical and horizontal fiscal externalities interact. These results have some interesting implications for fiscal policy in the European Union, particularly as the EU continues to evolve. One implication for the EU is that enlargement that increases tax base disparities within the EU (and is not accompanied by an EU-level income tax) will tend to lower national income tax rates, although this must be qualified because it also depends on the mobility of the population. A second implication is that fiscal expansion of the EU to include an EU-level income tax may tend to lower the reliance of national governments on income taxes through the vertical externality, but may also tend to equalize tax bases across countries, and so increase reliance on national income taxes through the horizontal externality.     

交通基础设施的溢出效应及其产业差异——基于空间计量的比较分析

文章利用1998-2008年中国省级面板数据,在模型中加入不同经济意义空间权重矩阵的基础上,分析了我国交通基础设施的空间溢出效应。研究发现,我国交通基础设施的空间溢出效应更多地通过经济联系发生作用。交通基础设施对第二产业的空间溢出大于对第三产业的空间溢出,基于产业结构的空间溢出大于基于市场规模的空间溢出。此外,我国铁路溢出效应存在边际报酬递增的特征,而公路溢出效应则呈现边际报酬递减的现象。     

The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes in the European Union between 2000 and 2016. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of real-time estimates of discretionary fiscal adjustments. In particular, exploiting a unique database covering anticipated and unanticipated tax changes, we provide the first narrative panel estimates of output and employment multipliers for tax changes. Our results suggest that medium-term revenue-based output multipliers are in the range of −1.1 to −1.9 for unanticipated tax changes. Preannounced changes, on the other hand, temporarily impact economic activity inversely upon announcement, resulting in a less than one-to-one change in ex post tax receipts, but portray up to one percentage point larger employment responses. Finally, we find evidence of asymmetry between the effects of revenue increasing and decreasing measures in the European Union.     

The behaviour of relative prices in the European Union: A sectoral analysis

Using multivariate unit root test methods, this paper investigates the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis at the sectoral level across six European countries over the last 17 years. Evidence of mean reversion towards PPP is found for the relative prices of some sectors and countries. Mean reversion in relative prices is explained by cross-country and cross-sectoral characteristics such as the distance between countries, nominal exchange rate volatility, differences in GDP per capita, non-tariff barriers, research and development, advertising, industrial concentration and tradeability of the products.