征信体系下个人信用评价的启示

个人信用评价作为连接信用数据和信息服务的桥梁,其作用是显而易见的。个人信用评价通过对个人信用信息的数据处理和挖掘,运用数理统计学原理建立评价模型,定性或定量地反映个人客户的信用状况。在欧美发达国家,个人信用评价已相当成熟,并广泛地应用于金融业务,为信用政策的制定、分析、评估、优化提供支持服务。本文从国外征信体系的模式差异分析入手,结合我国新形势下征信工作的特点,深入思考适合我国的个人信用评价模型,并就现有征信体系下的信用评价应用,提出自己的观点和看法。     

浅谈成品油销售企业不同类型项目后评价内容及其重点

后评价是投资项目管理重要环节,关注的是项目在投入运营一段时间后,就项目前期论证决策、设计施工、竣工投产以及生产运营等全过程对项目目标、收益实现情况的影响,按照规定内容和标准进行的客观、系统分析和评价,其根本目标是为决策提供科学依据、规范项目管理和提高投资效益。本文借鉴后评价理论方法体系,结合成品油销售企业工作实际探讨了不同性质项目评价内容及其重点。     

基于模糊评价和AHP的综合评估模型

技术创新风险管理过程中,对技术创新风险因素进行全面的识别以后,建立一个技术创新风险评估指标体系和基于模糊评价和API的技术创新风险综合评估模型,运用模糊评价来评估技术创新项目的各个风险的大小。对技术创新项目风险进行科学的评估,有助于技术创新项目风险的准确把握,从而为正确的投资决策提供条件。     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空器机坪运行风险预警

为提高航空器机场安全管理水平,降低机坪运行风险,根据航空器机坪运行特点与规章要求建立风险预警体系.基于质量管理理论,系统识别影响机坪运行安全的各项风险;以航空器机坪运行时间变量为导向构建动态贝叶斯网络模型和算法,评估风险发生的概率,确定机坪风险预警指标权重,建立预警等级.最后,以南京禄口国际机场飞机擦挂事件为例进行预警分析.研究结果表明:通过分析机坪运行风险,构建预警模型可实现对航空器机坪运行的定量评估,从而有针对性地提供预警安全对策,降低事故率.     

构建高校教师课堂教学质量评价体系的设想

课堂教学是高校教学质量的核心部分,它是一项复杂的与多种因素相关的系统工程。建立规范、科学、操作性强的教学质量评价体系,对保证和稳步提高教学质量起着举足轻重的作用。从课堂教学评价方法入手,建立课堂教学评价体系的基本原则,确立评价体系的正确导向,并通过AHP法对教师课堂教学评估项目的权重进行合理分配,将为科学构建教师课堂教学质量评估体系提供新的思路。     

基于客户终身价值的电力客户细分研究

将客户终身价值理论应用于电力客户细分领域,通过广泛调研和专家咨询,构建了电力客户价值评估体系,并运用层次分析法为客户价值评估体系指标赋权。通过实例计算出所选客户的当前价值与潜在价值,指出其所属的客户类型,并针对其价值特征提出具体的营销对策。实践表明,这套客户细分方法为供电企业的营销工作提供了有效工具。     

精细的项目评估是成功做好国际工程服务项目的关键

根据相关统计研究结果显示，在国际工程服务项目开展过程中，普遍存在着有盈有亏现象，而造成国际工程服务项目出现运营操作失败、利益亏损的主要原因中，工程项目的实施运作以及一些不可抗拒作用因素所导致亏损比例相对较少，对工程服务项目评估的不足所引发的项目运作失败情况比较多，对于项目的评估不足成为国际工程服务项目运营开展过程中运作失败的主要原因。据此提出了精细的项目评估是成功做好国际工程服务项目的关键这一结论。本文将以某国际工程服务项目为例，从项目前期评估以及项目价格的准确评估、项目后期评价等对于国际工程服务项目开展的影响入手，精细的项目评估是成功做好国际工程服务项目的关键这一结论进行分析论述。     

项目融资风险的定量分析

一、投资风险评估：CAPM模型——项目风险的定量分析方法 作为项目的投资者,在建立和使用现金流量模型对项目的价值风险做出定量的分析和评价时,第一步需要解决的问题就是怎样选择和确定能够正确反映项目风险的贴现率,并使用这一贴现率计算项目的投资收益和净现值,评价投资决策。     

基于层次可拓模型的绿色项目管理评价

在给出绿色工程项目管理概念的基础上,建立了绿色项目管理评价体系。根据可拓原理,确定了指标经典域和节域,确定了待评物元及关联度,建立了绿色项目管理可拓评价模型,并运用该模型对工程实例进行了综合评价,为提高工程项目的绿色管理水平提供了理论基础和实际应用指导。     

构建中小企业经营核算模型

实时提供准确的经营数据是公司经营决策关键环节,对公司财务决策具有重要意义。中小企业很少有ERP等软件系统,如何实时了解公司经营成果并提供多纬度的核算需求,本文提出构建中小企业经营核算模型,（以下简称PIC管理模型）。通过构建基于项目粒度、业务运营层面到公司运营层面的系统性结构化的PIC（利润=收入-成本）管理模型,实现可视化透明治理的目的。首先,本文指出了构建中小企业经营核算模型的必要性;其次,从PIC模型是什么,到PIC价值成本体系,解决如何构建PIC模型;最后指出构建中小企业经营核算模型需要解决的问题。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上,尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能,资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标,以求真实反映银行经营的成果,有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系,从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.