Optimal Currency Areas Scottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1999

Microeconomic efficiency and market transparency argue in favour of UK membership in EMU and for Scotland’s membership in the UK monetary union and also in EMU. UK seigniorage (government revenues from money issuance) would be boosted by EMU membership. Lender of last resort arrangements would not be substantially affected by UK membership in EMU. The UK is too small and too open to be an optimal currency area. The same point applies even more emphatically to Scotland. The ‘one‐size‐fits‐all’, ‘asymmetric shocks’ and ‘cyclical divergence’ objections to UK membership are based on the misapprehension that independent national monetary policy, and the associated nominal exchange rate flexibility, can be used effectively to offset or even neutralise asymmetric shocks. This ‘fine tuning delusion’ is compounded by a failure to understand that, under a high degree of international financial integration, market‐determined exchange rates are primarily a source of shocks and instability. Instead, opponents of UK membership in EMU view exchange rate flexibility as an effective buffer for adjusting to asymmetric shocks originating elsewhere. I know of no evidence that supports such an optimistic reading of what exchange rate flexibility can deliver under conditions of very high international financial capital mobility. The economic arguments for immediate UK membership in EMU, at an appropriate entry rate, are overwhelming. Monetary union raises important constitutional and political issues. It involves a further surrender of national sovereignty to a supranational institution, the ECB/ESCB. It is essential that this transfer of national sovereignty be perceived as legitimate by those affected by it. In addition, the citizens of the UK have become accustomed to a high standard of openness and accountability of their central bank since it gained operational independence in 1997. The ECB/ESCB must be held to the same high standard, and, while there are grounds for optimism, there still is some way to go there.     

The Management of Universities; Scottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1999

This paper surveys the literature concerning the operation of incentive mechanisms within and across higher education institutions. A principal-agent model of intra-institution resource allocation is developed, and its implications are compared with some of the resource allocation models currently in operation in British universities. At the inter-institutional level, the model is adapted to the case where a funding council serves as principal to many agents—the universities. Evidence on the scale and scope economies, and on the technical efficiency of UK universities is presented. It is argued that the received models of resource allocation should be amended so as to encourage the development of the university system in the direction of the sustainable configuration and so as to allow for differences in efficiency across budgetary units.     

The Future Welfare Burden; Scottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1998

For the last quarter of the twentieth century, in the UK and much of the rest of the developed world, the scale of the future welfare burden has been at the heart of political and economic debate. After a century of largely tax funded growth, through periods of enormous demographic, social and economic change, concerns about the possibility or consequences of further growth began to be voiced more and more frequently and across a wider political range. Perhaps because the welfare state is so emotive a subject, much of the debate has been rather vague, and on occasion confused and ill-informed. Our aim in this paper is to set out the context for a coherent debate about what happens next.     

Open Macroeconomics in an Open EconomyScottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1997

There are three pillars to the new Labour Government's approach to economic policy; delivering macroeconomic stability, tackling supply-side barriers to growth and delivering employment and economic opportunities to all. This lecture focuses on the new Government's reforms to deliver macroeconomic stability and the importance of open and transparent institutions and procedures. The lecture outlines four principles for macroeconomic policymaking which flow from changes in the world economy and the world of economic ideas over recent decades. It explains each principle and shows how they are being translated into practice in the macroeconomic policy reforms that the new Government has introduced at the Treasury and the Bank of England.     

The Information Society: Implications for Economic Institutions and Market Theory

The extraordinary growth and reduction in inequalities achieved between the mid-1960s and mid-1990s by the High Performing Asian Economies (HPAEs) — namely Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan (collectively called "the four tigers"), Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand — has been discussed at great length in the economic literature. However, no clear explanation has been suggested for the poor performance of other Asian economies, like India, which share the HPAEs geographical proximity and similar economic structures. This paper shows that the stark contrast between the high growth rates and declining income inequalities of HPAEs on one side, and low growth rates and stable (or rising) income inequalities of India and other Asian countries on the other side, may at least in part be explained by the different role that human capital has played in those economies between the mid-1960s and mid-1990s.     

西部政策性银行的体系

一、西部政策性银行体系组织结构的框架概述西部政策性银行体系应采取怎样的体系结构，取决于其经济金融制度的特殊性和业务领域、业务对象的特殊性。结合西部特殊的地域经济状况，我们认为，西部政策性银行体系应该是一个由国家和地方两级银行组成的体系：国家一级的政策性银行直属国务院领导，下设若干发展部；地方一级的政策性银行在必要的城市设立与发展部相应的分支机构，针对该地区经济特点和金融需求提供服务。国家级政策性银行主要协调整个西部政策性资金分配工作，地方级则根据具体区域经济状况及时有效地提供金融支持。二、西部政…     

贯彻男女平等基本国策 推进经济社会和谐发展

男女平等，是指男女之间人的尊严和价值的平等及男女权利、机会和责任的平等，即女性应享有与男性平等的人格和尊严，与男性在经济、政治、社会、文化、家庭等各方面享有权利和机会的平等。实现男女平等，是衡量社会文明进步的重要标尺。在1995年第四次世界妇女大会上，我国政府把男女平等作为促进我国社会发展的一项基本国策。2005年，我国重新修订的《妇女权益保障法》，     

环境税经济效应的扩展分析及其政策启示

本文从环境税的理论基础入手,回顾了环境税经济效应分析的几个有代表性的基本观点,认真分析了环境税经济效应传统分析中存在的局限性,并在此基础上将"经济结构优化效应"和"国际贸易受益效应"引入到环境税经济效应分析当中,大大拓宽了环境税经济效应分析的研究视角,最后在环境税经济效应创新性分析的基础上提出了相应的环境税政策启示。     

The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank

The first six years of ECB monetary policy are examined using a general framework that allows central bankers to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation, output and the interest rate from their reference values. The empirical analysis on synthetic euro‐area data suggests that the objective of price stability is symmetric, whereas the objectives of real activity and interest‐rate stabilizations are not. Output contractions imply larger policy responses than output expansions of the same size, while movements in the interest rate are larger when the level of the interest rate is relatively high. The hypothesis of M3 growth‐rate targeting is rejected.     

The Corporate State,Economic Performance,and Social Policy

We use the Survey of Consumer Finances to analyze changes in U.S. household debt between 1989 and 2013. We focus on how income and debt levels have changed, and what this means for future economic growth and living standards. Prior to the Great Recession, U.S. households had record high debt levels and record low savings rates. Highly leveraged consumption boosted economic growth. However, large debt burdens have led many families to deleverage. Our study finds that deleveraging has been insufficient. Although debt payments have fallen relative to household income, this is mainly due to low interest rates. Debt levels, especially for home mortgages, remain high by historical standards and portend continued stagnation due to lower consumer spending.     

The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy

This paper uses a simple model of the Australian economy to empirically examine the consequences of parameter uncertainty for optimal monetary policy. Optimal policy responses are derived for a monetary authority that targets inflation and output stability. Parameter uncertainty is characterised by the estimated distribution of the model coefficient estimates. Learning is ruled out, so the monetary authority can commit to its ex ante policy response. For certain shocks, taking account of parameter uncertainty can recommend more, rather than less, activist use of the policy instrument. While this finding is specific to the model specification, parameter estimates and the shocks analysed, it contrasts with the widely held belief that the generic implication of parameter uncertainty is more conservative policy.     

The Macroeconomic Implications of Current Fiscal Policy

Exchange rate changes and intertemporal consumption responses suggest that the short-run impact of current fiscal policy on aggregate demand will be small. However, cuts to public expenditure may have undesirable long-term consequences.     

A New Typology for Economic Sectors with a view to Policy Implications

This paper is an attempt to tease out a typology of economic sectors based on a systems approach to innovation and economic growth that may be useful for policy analysis. The typology explored here revolves around novel products rather than ethereal knowledge-producing entities. This insight goes back to Allyn Young (1928) and Joseph Schumpeter (1934) who argued that the introduction of new goods was the engine of economic growth. More precisely, our typology of sectors focuses on novel products which are efficiency-enhancing within and between sectors through the market mechanism. The scheme revolves around the relationship between 'Enabling' and 'Recipient' sectors (which gives the typology its name: ER), and offers a lens for viewing and interpreting a substantive part of the mechanics of modern economic growth. The last part of the paper briefly discusses a few immediate policy implications, although it has the potential for greater use and value in this regard.     

国外政策性银行运作的经验与启示

国外政策性银行成立的历史较长，积累了较为丰富的运作经验。通过三三家国外政策性银行成立背景及功能演变，资金来源和融资模式，运作特点和风险防范，监管等的经验可知，我国政策性银行成立运作的启动是规范运作，解决好融资问题，积极开展经营等。