Cultural futures for thailand: An ethnographic enquiry

The author outlines an ethnographic and cultural approach developed during a study of Thailand's future-a study which necessitated different approaches from those commonly used in futures research in dealing with the developed world. The study was based on interviews with Thais currently living in California and shows widespread agreement among the interviewees, particularly on the possibility of large-scale violence in Thailand in the 1980s.     

不断拓宽资本市场的广度和深度

在中国资本市场逐渐回暖、投资者信心逐渐恢复的背景下，中国应该借此机会，不断拓宽资本市场的广度和深度，从而为资本市场的持续健康发展奠定基础。     

The dynamic relationship of volatility,volume, and market depth in currency futures markets

This study examines the dynamic interactions among return volatilities, volume, and market depth for five currency futures markets. We use vector autoregressive analysis (VAR) to identify not only the nature of these relations but also the direction and speed of the information flow between variables. We find that return volatility is subject to strong reversal effects from trading volume and market depth. The results also indicate that the volatility appears to have predictive power on volume but not on market depth. Furthermore, this study finds that volume and depth are not endogenously determined, as their lead–lag relationship is asymmetrical. We also observe an increasing trend of integration between offshore and domestic information that affects the movement of currency futures prices.     

Robot futures: science fiction and futures studies methodologies in action

What would constitute a robot identity? Would a robot developing an identity be consciousness of the processes that could/would shape its identity? This essay explores these questions by considering images common to both, futures studies and science fiction—in particular, the now famous anti-capitalist demonstrations in Seattle in November 1999.     

From change to progress: critical spirituality and the futures of futures studies

This paper argues that for futures studies (FS) to have a future that is relevant to current shifts in meaning and consciousness, then it must incorporate into its methods and practices a sense of mystery founded on a critically spiritual sensibility. Critical spirituality redefines rationality and empiricism by including within their framework both the somatic and the meditative as valid and necessary components of any research activity. In the short term this means a shift away from the current Western obsession with change and a stepping back to allow for critical distance in order to understand that it is in the appreciation of progress — a fundamental shift in consciousness to include the spiritual dimensions of human experience — that discourse will emerge to take FS to the heart of civilisational renewal. In allowing for mystery, silence and the meditative empiricism required to access these categories, critical spirituality lessens the gap between thought and action and thus enables truly transformative academic practice to emerge.The idea of progress has been central to the unfolding of the modernist project over the previous century. Yet as the century drew to a close it became increasingly hard to keep faith with the idea in the face of growing disillusionment and the obvious failure of modernism to deliver what people most wanted: happiness born of personal fulfillment. A growing range of voices in the critical futures field have been questioning the assumption that change in material terms equates with progress.These voices fall into four main areas.

• Post modernist and post structuralist thinkers;

• Feminists empowering postmodern discourse with value laden analyses of power;

• Post colonial thinkers with a debt to neo-Marxist and critical theorists;

• Neo-humanist thinkers with an investment in all three of the above, who work from a critically spiritual perspective.

In this paper I am going to argue that a Neo-humanist vision of the futures of Futures Studies is one which will fully engage the human potential by activating a critically spiritual methodology. This is important as many of the tools of futures work are actually intended for use in anticipating and managing change (uncritically) but have little relevance when considering the nature of progress. Those methods and techniques which engage with the less analytic more visionary process of futures are much more relevant to progress because they actively involve the individuals in the act of ‘futures building’ as opposed to ‘futures scanning’.‘Progress’ here is used to mean fundamental change in the consciousness of both the individual and collective mind. It is essentially spiritual and has no clear temporal or spacial restrictions being timeless, or as Joanna Macy would have it, anchored in “deep time” [1]. Change, on the other hand, is very much associated with technical and material movement, having no connection with the inner fabric of the human psyche. There is no appreciation of spirit here, though great attention is paid to gross national product and the latest technical innovation to hit the market.Futures Studies has the potential to be responsive to future human dilemmas. But to be so it will need to make the effort to embrace tools and concepts that lie beyond the narrow pall of academic rationality as it is currently constituted. A greater space is already emerging within the field that not only tolerates but promotes imaginative and creative processes that break down the intellectual prudery of those who are attached to their own discipline and have little capacity to envision beyond narrow and self imposed confines. Thus we find music and song, poetry and story, art and theatre effective vehicles for work on deeper forms of consciousness. Visioning and imaging workshops such as those run by Joanna Macy, Elise Boulding, John Seed and Warren Ziegler (to name but a few) are growing in power and sophistication. Meditation and other reflective practices — the spiritual quest — seeking to plumb the depth of the human soul become relevant when seen within a broadened definition of rationality and research.Clearly futurists need to be able to assess and describe likely changes in the short, medium and long term but their central goal should be to facilitate areas of human endeavor which can benefit from a closer linkage between action, the consciousness that informs and directs the action and the spirit that underwrites the consciousness. Equally clear is the fact that not all futures trends are as relevant to this deeper layer of operation within Futures Studies.     

Preparing for the professional futures field:: Observations from the UHCLC futures program

The futures field is an arena of increasing interest and activity. This article seeks to: (1) provide general information about key information sources for directed inquiry into futures studies; (2) sketch the origins and current status of the graduate program in Studies of the Future offered by the University of Houston at Clear Lake City—currently the largest and most comprehensive program of its kind; (3) Describe the methodology used in a recent strategic planning and program development project to update the UHCLC program; and (4) convey some guiding observations on teaching and research in futures studies, and on helping students find appropriate employment.     

Market liquidity and depth on two different electronic trading systems: A comparison of Bund futures trading on the APT and DTB

This paper investigates the liquidity of two different electronic trading systems – the APT system at LIFFE and the DTB system. First we describe the different characteristics of the trading systems and give potential reasons as to why they might differ in liquidity. Second we investigate empirically the liquidity provided by the two trading system. The comparison is especially interesting because the Bund Futures instruments traded are identical and the markets are open simultaneously. The intra-day data used in the study is from August 1997 to February 1998. The results show that the APT has smaller spread but the DTB is slightly deeper.     

Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences

The futures field demonstrates a willing openness in embracing methodologies, approaches, and influences from a diversity of disciplines and perspectives. This plurality of practice is evidenced in a growing body of work that increasingly embodies futures thinking in the design of everyday material and networked experiences. The intersection of design and futures produces artifacts, applications and interactions created to provoke dialog in an accessible manner. As part of the Futures special issue on the Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future event, this article describes the documentation and public representation of the creative outcomes from nine Emerge design futures workshops. These workshops provided a rich opportunity to study how designers and futurists collaboratively engage, implement and communicate alternative futures. The goal of the documentation effort described is to capture the experience of creating experiential futures and extend the capacity for developing social foresight through a participatory exhibit and online social platform.     

Setting the futures margin with price limits: the case for single-stock futures

Price limits are artificial boundaries established by regulators to establish the maximum price movement permitted in a single day. We propose using a new censoring method that incorporates the effect of price limits on the futures price distribution and investigates how to set an appropriate daily margin level using single-stock futures in Taiwan. We compare our estimations with those obtained using the method in Longin (J Bus 69:383–408, 1999). The results show that (1) the margin levels derived from the Longin method, which ignore price limits in the estimation, are lower than those in our censoring method; and (2) the legal margin for single-stock futures set at 13.5 % by the Taiwan Futures Exchange to avoid default risk appears to be too high.     

Feral futures: Zen and aesthetics

Studies of ‘futures’ have hitherto focused on those that are predictable and ‘tame’, and on those that are unpredictable and ‘wild’. Here we consider a new class, the ‘feral’; which are expectations that things might be made worse by risk-based actions. The type case is the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island, where operatives assumed that what was unfolding was of a sort described in their manual, and discovered too late that responses based on that assumption were making the situation worse. In this paper we review the idea of ‘feral’ and how it applies to futures, and discuss the different modes of engagement (or non-engagement) with feral futures. To make feral futures manageable, we suggest two ideas from other spheres of activity. Zen is a practice and philosophy which enables us to drop our preconceptions and thereby to respond to emerging, unprecedented situations. Aesthetics articulates a particular way to sense and appreciate realities intuitively, again enabling a direct response. The combination of Zen and aesthetics with scenario practice in the tradition of Pierre Wack provides a promising mode of response to emerging feral futures.     

Toward a simulated replica of futures: Classification and possible trajectories of simulation in futures studies

Simulation is likely to become a prominent method of theory development. Futures studies have used simulation in different ways such as evaluating scenarios. Nonetheless, the central attributes of computer simulation such as reductionism-based abstraction, determinism and elimination of stakeholders are the main barriers of successful implementation of simulation in FS. In this paper, we would paint the plausible evolutionary panorama of futures of simulation in futures studies after looking at the role of simulation in FS so far. The possible mechanisms and partnerships required to be applied to grapple the above-mentioned difficulties will be enumerated and investigated. These, in three categories, comprise firstly, human-machine interactions such as quasi-game simulations, and scenario visualization, secondly, large-network simulations including crowd sourcing, and thirdly, simulation platforms for replication of emergence. Ergo, crafting a classification of simulation in futures studies and the possible developments will be the main contribution of this paper. A novel double diamond classification will be presented as well which reflects the past and plausible futures of simulation in futures studies.     

Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment

In energy policy and energy research, decisions have to be made about the technologies and infrastructures that may be used to provide and distribute energy in future times, some of which are very distant. Frequently, energy futures such as predictions of the energy demand or energy scenarios are used for decision-support in this field. The diversity of energy futures, however, threatens any possibility for orientation, could lead to disorientation instead of helping more rational decision-making and could be used for ideological purpose. In this paper, we investigate concepts and approaches for scrutinizing, comparing and assessing the various energy futures from an epistemological point of view. Following the analysis of the structure of (energy) futures we will conclude that comparisons and assessments of energy futures should be made through processes of scrutiny and assessment, looking into the ingredients which have been used in constructing the respective futures, and into the process of their composition. Providing much more insight into the cognitive and normative structure of energy futures is required for allowing a more transparent and deliberative societal debate about future energy systems.     

Distant futures and the environment

This paper develops guidelines for long-term environmental policy and an environmental ethical framework that addresses the distant future. It is assumed that humans have an obligation to maintain Earth-life into the distant future, even past the time when the Earth will become uninhabitable. To achieve the goal of maintaining Earth-life into the distant future requires intelligence. Presently, it can be argued that only humans possibly possess the intelligence required to achieve this goal. It is further assumed that if humans become extinct, the chances are poor that Earth-life with the requisite intelligence to achieve this goal will emerge through evolution. It is also assumed that a catastrophic die-off of species on this planet will lead to the extinction of the human species. Taking these assumptions together, then, it is argued that it is imperative that catastrophic die-off of species must be prevented. Several environmental threats to such an event are described and suggestions to overcome the threats are presented. It is argued that the central premise and associated policies and actions represent a unique environmental ethical framework. To ground the discussions, the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere (SAMAB) region in the Southeastern United States is used for context, background, and transference of general principles to specific environmental policies.     

Counting the cost,reconciling the benefits: understanding employer investment in Higher Apprenticeships in accounting

Lack of progression to higher education amongst those who complete an Advanced Apprenticeship in England and the country’s need for higher level skills led to the introduction of Higher Apprenticeships in 2009. Whilst Higher Apprenticeships would be expected to facilitate learner progression, the volume of these has remained low. In this paper, the example of accountancy training illustrates that Higher Apprenticeships are typically introduced into a crowded qualification landscape where they likely replace or subsume existing vocational qualifications. Based on employer case studies, the paper explores the factors employers consider when deciding to invest in this form of training and finds that the net costs of training are central. Higher Apprenticeships often simply substitute for other previously used modes of accountancy training, providing the same core qualification but there are some added benefits of the Apprenticeship including widening the employers’ recruitment pool for accounting technicians. As Apprenticeship reforms evolve, it will be down to the value employers place on this route compared to standalone qualification to the same level, which will determine the viability of Higher Apprenticeships in the accounting space.     

Taxing transactions in futures markets: Objectives and effects

In the last few years various legislative proposals have been made to impose a transaction or excise tax on securities and derivative market transactions. Although there have been considerable discussion and analysis of the wisdom of imposing such a tax on securities markets, there has been no analysis of the pros and cons of extending the tax to futures markets. This article attempts to fill this gap, first, by examining the various rationales advanced to support a tax on securities markets to determine their applicability to futures markets and, second, by analyzing the likely effects of the tax on the competitiveness and efficiency of futures markets. In addition, the revenue-raising potential of a tax on futures transactions is evaluated. I conclude that a tax on futures markets will not achieve any important social objective and will not generate much revenue.     

Ethical dilemmas: Teaching futures in schools

Educational policy is implicitly futures oriented, yet in most instances fails to engage learners with explicit futures tools and concepts at a school level. Futures studies in education, or futures education has the potential to reposition learning as purposeful and mobilizes the lives of participants by connecting the curriculum of schools with the multifaceted futures of learners. This is a complex task within the tensions often existing between: the cultural role of a school, the expectations of a society, the expertise of teachers, and the increasingly diverse needs of learners (Bateman, 2012). It is between the tensions of these things that the ‘ethical’ issues of what is taught, or omitted as content in a classroom and the consequences of these choices are evident.This paper highlights ethical and moral dilemmas, as they were apparent in two futures education projects. In the first study, the teachers discuss the inherent limitations of offering a broader and more futures oriented curriculum. In the second study, teachers reflect upon their students’ anxiety with regards to futures images as they are interrogated within a curriculum study. Each of these studies highlights the ethical challenges that arise, when possible, preferable and probable futures are developed as part of learning in school settings, which are culturally and demographically diverse.Tirri and Husu (2002) highlight the ethical dilemmas, which emerge in classrooms around the world, based on conflicts in values and competing intentions between key stakeholders. In the studies which contribute to this discussion, there is evidence to suggest that futures thinking causes conflict within an individual's perception of how the world should be, or their worldview as a result of futures imagining which goes beyond what is taken for granted, or is an assumed future eventuality. In the same way, Carrington, Deppeler, and Moss (2010) argue that all curriculum choices about what is taught (or not taught) in a classroom reflect an ethical decision made by a teacher, with regards to what is foregrounded for learning and what is omitted.It is crucial to re-examine the role of a school in educating students for their futures, as opposed to educating students with an aim of furthering governmental agendas. More significantly, however, as this paper highlights, it is exploring the boundaries of what is acceptable or unacceptable, appropriate or inappropriate to teach in a classroom, given the changing diversities of schools and education systems throughout the world.     

DIYbio: Making things and making futures

http://DIYbio.org (Do It Yourself Biology) is an online site and a digital brand subscribed to local groups of amateur biologists worldwide. Despite of making up a rather heterogeneous public, DIYbio groups are organized around a concern to make biology accessible, easy and enjoyable. DIYbio combines an open source ethos, with a DIY will to do things and the joy to mess with biological matter. As biohacking is about de-composing and re-composing things, DIYbio takes on a particular approach to the making of the new and to the making of futures that this paper explores. Inspired by Heidegger's notion of the thing, I suggest that differing from institutionalized forms of biology, DIYbio produces things rather than techno-objects. I go into this point by first situating DIYbio in relation to synthetic biology and other instutionalised forms of biology. To explore how DIYbio takes on a particular approach to the making of the new, I look at a number of things that DIYbio groups have projected, designed and realized. I suggest that DIYbio combines a sort of individual craftiness and self-determination to do things with a praxis in which things are always in the making, waiting for the next realization. DIYbio take on an approach to the making of things and futures that is immediate and mundane. Yet, as an emerging public, DIYbio relies on an ambiguous relation to institutionalized science, and might be turned into a transfer of materialities and temporalities from public domains to science.