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1.
This paper addresses new insights into the predictability of financial returns. In particular, we analyze two aspects of the controversial forecasting literature. On the one hand, we demonstrate a positive and contemporaneous link between aggregate book/market and consumption/wealth ratios. On the other hand, we show that real estate and human capital, as the present value of all future salaries, are key components of the consumption/wealth ratio in Spain. Specifically, we find that the cointegrating residuals of consumption, asset holdings, real estate holdings, and our measure of human capital provide a better forecast of future returns than does the standard proxy of the consumption/wealth ratio. This result is important because it clarifies the importance of country-specific components of wealth for cases in which the consumption/wealth ratio is employed as an instrument in conditional asset pricing models.Belén Nieto: Financial support from the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología grant SEJ2005-09372 is gratefully acknowledged.Rosa Rodríguez: Financial support from the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología grant SEC2003-06457 is gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献
2.
Summary. In this paper we re-examine generic constrained suboptimality of equilibrium allocations with incomplete numeraire asset
markets. We provide a general framework which is capable of resolving some issues left open by the previous literature, and
encompasses many kinds of intervention in partially controlled market economies. In particular, we establish generic constrained
suboptimality, as studied by Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis, even without an upper bound on the number of households. Moreover,
we consider the case where asset markets are left open, and the planner can make lump-sum transfers in a limited number of
goods. We show that such a perfectly anticipated wealth redistribution policy, though consistent with the assumed incomplete
financial structure, is typically effective.
Received: August 14, 1995; revised version: April 11, 1997 相似文献
3.
We consider repeated games with side-payments: players have an endowment of wealth in each period in which transfers can be made. We show that if endowments are large enough and the common discount factor high enough, then a strongly renegotiation–proof equilibrium (SRP) in the sense of Farrell and Maskin exists. As the discount factor goes to 1, the set of SRP payoffs converges to the set of efficient, individually rational payoffs. These results provide a justification for the efficiency principle when agreements are not enforceable. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C73, D23, L14. 相似文献
4.
A mean‐variance framework is applied to Australian household financial portfolios in order to provide estimates of relative risk aversion in the economy. Controlling for various socio‐economic characteristics, we explore whether risk aversion heterogeneity is a function of wealth heterogeneity. In contrast to most studies, we find evidence of very high risk aversion amongst the majority of households of poor households but vastly lower risk aversion amongst the high percentiles in the wealth distribution. Applying a first differences model across three survey waves spanning 2002 to 2010, we find that risk tolerance increases significantly with wealth. Risk tolerance is positively associated with mortgage payments, but rental payments have no relationship. In addition, we found no evidence that holding a university education has any discernible impact on risk aversion. Lastly, we present some preliminary findings as to the impact of financial advice on observed risk aversion. Financial advice is found to accentuating risk aversion, particularly amongst the wealthiest households. The findings have potential implications for the distribution of wealth in Australia that has received renewed interest recently. 相似文献
5.
We introduce the concept of a parameterized collection of games with limited side payments, ruling out large transfers of utility, and demonstrate conditions ensuring that a game with limited side payments has a nonempty -core. Our main result is that, when some degree of side-paymentness within nearly-effective small groups is assumed and large transfers are prohibited, then all payoffs in the -core treat similar players similarly. A bound on the distance between -core payoffs of any two similar players is given in terms of the parameters describing the game. These results add to the literature showing that games with many players and small effective groups have the properties of competitive markets. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C71, C78, D71. 相似文献
6.
Jingfeng Lu 《Games and Economic Behavior》2012,74(2):561-575
This paper studies optimal auction design with asymmetric linear financial externalities among bidders. When the matrix Γ that relates bidders? payoffs to their payments is nonsingular, the payment-related component in the design objective must equal a unique linear combination of its counterparts in bidder?s payoffs. If all multipliers of the linear combination are nonnegative, a modified Myerson procedure is discovered for deriving the optimal design. If any multiplier is negative, an arbitrarily high value can be achieved for design objective by setting proper fixed transfers to bidders. When the matrix Γ is singular, the unbounded optimum result typically prevails. We applied our method to auctions with cross shareholdings and charity auctions for revenue-maximizing and efficient designs. 相似文献
7.
Kevin Milligan 《The Canadian journal of economics》2005,38(3):1057-1106
Abstract. This paper documents the life‐cycle patterns of household portfolios in Canada, and investigates several hypotheses about asset accumulation and allocation. Inferences are drawn from the 1999 Survey of Financial Security, with some comparisons to earlier wealth surveys from 1977 and 1984. I find cross‐sectional evidence for asset decumulation at older ages when annuitized assets like pension wealth are included in the analysis. I also find that the portfolio share of financial assets increases sharply with age, while indicators of risk tolerance appear to decrease. This is consistent with families' desiring more liquid and less risky assets as they age. JEL classification: D31, E21, G11 相似文献
8.
Luis C. Rodríguez Unai Pascual Roldan MuradianNathalie Pazmino Stuart Whitten 《Ecological Economics》2011,70(11):2163-2174
Environmental protection and poverty alleviation in the developing world are usually heralded as joint objectives. However, these two goals are often associated with different sectoral policy instruments. While so−called payments for environmental services (PES) are increasingly being promoted for environmental protection, poverty alleviation is increasingly addressed by conditional cash transfers (CCT) program. These instruments although aimed to achieve distinct objectives have a number of similarities and challenges in their design and implementation phases. This paper elaborates on these similarities and develops a unifying generic framework that is used to discuss the extent to which both approaches could be unified. 相似文献
9.
We consider a multiperiod financial exchange economy with nominal assets and restricted participation, where each agent’s portfolio choice is restricted to a closed, convex set containing zero, as in Siconolfi (Non-linear Dynamics in Economics and Social Sciences, 1989). Using an approach that dates back to Cass (CARESS Working Paper, 1984; J Math Econ 42:384–405, 2006) in the unconstrained case, we seek to isolate arbitrage-free asset prices that are also quasi-equilibrium or equilibrium asset prices. In the presence of such portfolio restrictions, we need to confine our attention to aggregate arbitrage-free asset prices, i.e., for which there is no arbitrage in the space of marketed portfolios. Our main result states that such asset prices are quasi-equilibrium prices under standard assumptions and then deduces that they are equilibrium prices under a suitable condition on the accessibility of payoffs by agents, i.e., every payoff that is attainable in the aggregate can be marketed through some agent’s portfolio set. This latter result extends previous work by Martins-da-Rocha and Triki (Working Paper, University of Paris 1, 2005). 相似文献
10.
Karine Hervé Nigel Pain Pete Richardson Franck Sédillot Pierre-Olivier Beffy 《Economic Modelling》2011,28(1-2):589-601
This paper provides a summary of the OECD's new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight to the focus of policy interests in global trade and financial linkages. The country model structures typically combine short-term Keynesian-type dynamics with a consistent long-run neo-classical supply-side. While retaining a conventional treatment of international trade and payments linkages, the model has a greater degree of stock-flow consistency, with explicit modelling of domestic and international assets, liabilities and associated income streams. Account is also taken of the influence of financial and housing market developments on asset valuation and domestic expenditures via house and equity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. As a result, the model gives more prominence to wealth and wealth effects in determining longer-term outcomes and the role of asset prices in the transmission of international shocks both to goods and financial markets. 相似文献
11.
《Review of Economic Dynamics》2001,4(3):575-606
A market for used capital goods, or financial instruments that represent the ownership of the used capital goods, induces inflation taxes on wealth and on the nominal income flows that they provide. This paper explicitly introduces trading in either used capital goods or financial instruments into the standard stochastic growth model with money and production. These two monetary economies are equivalent. The value of the firm is equal to the firm's capital stock divided by inflation. The resulting asset-pricing conditions indicate that the effect of inflation on asset returns differs from the effects found in the literature by the addition of a significant wealth tax. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E0, E4, E5. 相似文献
12.
We test a two-stage compensation mechanism for promoting cooperation in Prisoner's Dilemma games. Players first simultaneously choose binding non-negative amounts to pay their counterparts for cooperating, and then play the induced game knowing these amounts. In our games, all payment pairs consistent with mutual cooperation in subgame-perfect equilibrium transform these games into coordination games, with both mutual cooperation and mutual defection as Nash equilibria in the second stage. When endogenous transfer payments are not permitted, cooperation is much less likely. Mutual cooperation is most likely when the (sufficient) payments are identical, and it is also substantially more likely with payment pairs that bring the mutual-cooperation payoffs closer together. Both the Fehr–Schmidt and Charness–Rabin models predict that transfers that make final payoffs closer are preferred; however, they do not explain why equal transfers are particularly effective. Transfers are also effective in sustaining cooperation even when they are imposed and not chosen. 相似文献
13.
衍生金融工具是在基本金融工具的基础上派生出来的金融工具,具体划分为金融资产和金融负债,对金融资产和金融负债应在其合约签订并符合一定条件时进行确认;以历史成本与公允价值相结合作为计量基础;按照实质重于形式的原则确定表内列报和表外披露的内容。 相似文献
14.
15.
The Modigliani–Miller (M–M) theorem of financial asset theory concludes that asset values are independent of financing. In
other words, debt-solvency (credit constraints) does not affect asset values. Therefore, using the M–M theorem one can argue
that credit constraints in the farm sector (where land is the most important asset) do not affect the value of farmland. However,
this proof relies on several arbitrage assumptions that are violated in the case of agricultural assets. This paper examines
the effect of debt-solvency and government payments on changes in annual farmland values by state in the United States. Using
panel cointergration method, results indicate that farmland values are significantly affected by both solvency and government
payments. In addition, the results imply that government payments may affect agricultural asset values beyond the direct effect
hypothesized in the literature.
相似文献
16.
Using the life‐cycle/permanent income hypothesis, we theoretically and empirically assess the impact of child benefit payments on household wealth accumulation. Consistent with the predictions of the model, we find that higher cumulative benefits received increase current assets, higher future benefit payments lower asset holding, and that these effects systematically vary over the life cycle. We find different wealth responses to child benefit payments for liquidity constrained and unconstrained households, as predicted by the model. 相似文献
17.
The formation of networks with transfers among players 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We examine the formation of networks among a set of players whose payoffs depend on the structure of the network, when players may bargain by promising or demanding transfer payments when forming links. We vary three aspects of the game: (i) whether players can only make transfers to (and receive transfers from) players to whom they are directly linked, or whether they can also subsidize links that they are not directly involved in, (ii) whether or not transfers relating to a given link can be made contingent on the full resulting network or only on the link itself, and (iii) whether or not players can pay other players to refrain from forming links. We characterize the networks that are supported under these variations and show how each of the above aspects either accounts for a specific type of externality, or deals with the combinatorial nature of network payoffs. 相似文献
18.
Summary. In a three-period finite exchange economy with incomplete financial markets and retrading, we study the effects of the degree of incompleteness and of changes in the financial structure on asset price volatility. In what are essentially no aggregate risk economies, asset price volatility is a sunspot-like phenomenon. If markets are completed by financial innovation, asset price volatility reduction is generic. With aggregate risk, changes in the financial structure affect asset price volatility through a pecuniary externality. Financial innovation which decreases equilibrium price volatility can be crafted under conditions of sufficient market incompleteness. Numerical examples illustrate the role of risk aversion for volatility changes and show that, with or without aggregate risk, reducing the degree of incompleteness per se is not necessarily associated with a volatility reduction.Received: 10 October 2003, Revised: 3 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers:
C60, D52, G10.
Correspondence to: Alessandro CitannaThis research project stems from and expands previous work circulated as Financial innovation and price volatility, GSIA Working Paper #1996-E30 and Controlling price volatility through financial innovation, Kellogg Working Paper #2002-1338. We thank Herakles Polemarchakis and Chris Telmer for their comments. We are grateful to an anonymous referee for careful reviews of earlier versions. The first author thanks also GSIA - Carnegie Mellon University for the kind hospitality during Fall 2002, when part of this project was completed. 相似文献
19.
《Journal of development economics》1986,20(1):125-133
Financial deepening is defined as increases in the ratio of a country's financial assets to its GDP. Financial asset accumulation simultaneously provides credit to finance real asset accumulation for the development process. The equilibrium long-run ratio of financial assets to GDP may be expressed as a simple relationship of a country's financial savings ratio and its growth rate. The present paper incorporates the effects of inflation on financial deepening. Inflation necessarily entails capital losses on all existing financial asset holdings. It is shown that unless more monetary saving is forthcoming to offset such inflation-induced capital losses, inflation will operate to reduce drastically the degree of financial deepening which a country can obtain. The process is illustrated with respect to the Korean economy. 相似文献
20.
Robert V. Kennedy 《Review of Income and Wealth》1980,26(3):253-291
International financial relationships should be interpreted in the context of a comprehensive conceptual framework; this paper advocates the use of concepts developed to measure and analyze balance of payments flows. Broad-based, empirical estimates of the international wealth of most countries of the western world are presented on the basis of cumulating balance of payments flows over a lengthy period. Among the more interesting aspects of the results are: the importance of intra-industrial country capital flows in a global context; the propensity of debtors to regard a larger share of their aggregate external debt as long term than do their creditors; the overwhelming importance of banks located in the industrial countries in global external asset and liability positions, and the preponderance of short-term positions taken by those banks; and the tendency for balance of payments records to report more direct investment assets than liabilities. The paper also contains some observations, based on the cumulations of balance of payments capital flows, concerning the nature and size of certain deficiencies in alternative sources–particularly the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System, and the Bank for International Settlements' banking data–of information on outstanding external debt positions. 相似文献