宏观杠杆率、影子银行规模与银行体系稳定性——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

“去杠杆”、“强监管”和“防风险”是新时期经济社会发展中的关键任务。本文选取2010-2018年季度数据构建微观审慎监管视角下的银行体系稳定性指数,分析检验我国宏观杠杆率、影子银行规模对银行体系稳定性的时变影响机制。研究显示:我国银行体系稳定性总体呈震荡向下趋势,由稳定阶段逐渐转向当前高度不稳定阶段。进一步地,采用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)实证研究发现:我国宏观杠杆率与影子银行规模对银行体系稳定性的冲击响应具有时变特征和时滞效应。宏观杠杆率与影子银行规模之间存在相互促进的非线性动态关系,二者叠加会对银行体系产生不利冲击。中长期内,宏观杠杆率过快攀升会加重银行体系不稳定,杠杆率适度波动一定程度上有利于银行体系稳定;短中期内,影子银行的适当扩张给稳定银行体系产生积极影响,但过度膨胀会形成长期持久的负向冲击。鉴于此,现阶段我国应加强经济去杠杆、影子银行监管及银行风险防范多重政策目标之间的有效协同,以维护金融体系稳定。     

国际银行业并购的效应分析及对我国的启示

银行业的并购在金融业的发展中始终占据着重要地位,最近几年令人惊叹的银行并购浪潮中充分显示了这一点。面对国际金融服务领域更加激烈的竞争,为增强自身的竞争实力,众多的国际金融集团正在不断地合并、重组,以图在全球金融市场一体化的进程中占有一席之地。席卷全球的银行并购潮,正在促使全球银行业发生巨大的变革。     

Banking Soundness Indicators and Sovereign Risk in Time of Crisis: The Case of the European Union

This study examines the impact of the soundness of the banking sector on sovereign risk of EU member countries during the financial crisis using a selection of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) and the sovereign ratings of the three main rating agencies. Unlike previous literature that typically focuses on the ability of FSIs to foresee banking crises, we estimate ordered response models to assess the power of these indicators to explain sovereign risk. Our results show that evaluations made by the rating agencies are related to the lagged values of core FSIs such that an improvement in these indicators leads to improvements in upcoming sovereign ratings. Hence, reinforced banking soundness would reduce the sovereign risk. Accordingly, governments, supervisors and central banks should pay close attention to the evolution of certain FSIs related to the banking sector, in addition to other variables that have traditionally been taken into account in analysing sovereign risk.     

Banking competition and firm-level financial constraints in Latin America

Prior literature argues that, given the existence of information asymmetries and agency costs, higher competition may increase financial constraints by reducing banks' incentives to build lending relationships. Using a sample of listed firms for six Latin American countries, we analyze the relation between banking competition and financial constraints. We find evidence in line with prior research that banking competition increases financial constraints. This result is robust and heterogeneous. We include other country-specific variables and check the robustness of our findings; the main results hold. Our results show that the effect of competition differs across firms and industries. Specifically, consistent with the information hypothesis, the negative impact of competition is higher for small quoted firms and for low-assets tangibility industries. Also, as expected, we find evidence that firms are more affected by financial constraints during the last crisis. This negative effect is larger for firms in more competitive banking industries.     

Targeting the College Market for Banking Services

ABSTRACT

College students have long been recognized as a significant market for products and professional services. Their sheer number alone, estimated to reach 15.7 million by the year 2000, makes them a viable market for many companies.

However, there are many other attractions from a marketing perspective to targeting college students. They are relatively easy to locate, concentrated in reasonably well defined geographic areas, and accessible through campus newspapers and bulletin boards. And, because they are at the beginning of their careers, firms which establish business relationships with them have long-term opportunities to maintain those links.

This study examined selected banking attributes of college students, including factors affecting patronage decisions, perceptions as to the quality of services available, and sources students use to obtain information about financial services. Surveys were conducted at a large west coast university among a diverse set of students.

Results of the study found that a sizable percent of students maintain substantial balances in their checking and savings accounts. Additionally, economic factors, such as monthly charges and interest rates on deposits, weigh heavily on decisions concerning banking patronage.

The study also found that large, state-wide banking institutions appear to have the advantage in attracting the college student market. And, while bank patronage loyalties appear to be reasonably strong, a sizable percentage of students use more than one institution. Finally, the most useful source of information for reaching the college market appears to be direct mail.     

The Link Between Corporate Social and Financial Performance: Evidence from the Banking Industry

The purpose of this investigation is to extend earlier research on the relationship between corporate social and financial performance. The unique contribution of the study is the empirical analysis of a sample of companies from the banking industry and the use of Community Reinvestment Act ratings as a social performance measure. The empirical analysis solidly supports the hypothesis that the link between social and financial performance is positive.     

刍论中国金融模式下的分业与混业

金融业从分业向混业发展乃大势所趋，分业利于安全，混业利于效率。然而在中国金融模式下，由于制度前提、金融职能、产权结构的特殊性，使分业和混业都有防范金融风险和提高金融效率的双重要求。明确混业的基本目的、结合一系列金融制度改革、进行金融监管创新等，是分业平稳走向混业的基本条件。     

金融科技如何影响银行业竞争

金融科技的产业化发展给商业银行和银行业竞争格局带来了显著而深远的影响。本文利用2011—2016年全国31个省份的经济金融面板数据,通过构建空间计量模型实证检验金融科技对于地区银行业竞争的影响。研究结果显示,金融科技对于地区银行业竞争的影响存在显著的空间地理效应和产业竞争效应。其中,金融科技的空间地理效应主要体现为显著的空间依赖效应,而金融科技的产业竞争效应则主要来源于“市场挤出”和“技术溢出”两个作用渠道。研究结论对于如何通过金融科技促进银行业有效竞争,促进商业银行更好地发挥服务实体经济功能具有重要意义。     

China's Investment in Africa's Banking Sector

1 Introduction The global financial crisis, whose effects have been most severe on the world's largest banks, has created a vacuum in banking sector in Africa by stalling investment from the traditional investor. The world's largest banks, brought to their knees by the crisis, and having had to be bailed out, are in no position to continue investing in the banking sector in Africa.     

Problems and challenges facing the islamic banking system in the west: The case of the UK

This study investigates the main problems, challenges, and opportunities facing Islamic banking in the United Kingdom. The study reports the results of interviews that were undertaken with senior officials of several key financial institutions who have had many years of experience in dealing with Islamic banking. Our interviews revealed that, although by strict definition Islamic banks do not currently exist in the UK, London is one of the major centers for Islamic banking and finance. It is apparent that the experience of previously established Islamic institutions, such as Al‐Baraka, has made other institutions realize that it is possible to provide Islamic banking services in the UK under nonbanking regulations. The interviews also revealed that the main problem that Islamic banking faces in the UK is heterogeneous clients and potential clients. Moreover, regulatory hurdles, competition from conventional banks, and lack of adequately qualified and trained personnel exacerbate the situation. The study concludes by identifying opportunities such as e‐banking that may have a significant impact on the future of Islamic banking in the UK. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Cross-strait Financial Cooperation Brings New Chances for Banking Industry

The relationship cross the Strait stays stable. Recently, Hu Jintao, president of PRC, and Lian Zhan, former vice-president of Taiwan and former president of Kuo- mintang, met in Singapore. And it is reported that both sides had a discussion and formally signed this long-waiting Cross-Strait Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement （ECFA）. Not long after that, it was learned that both sides cross the Strait signed a MOU on banking industry supervision and cooperation. The signing of this MOU starts the negotiation on mutual-opening of banking and financial services industry cross the Strait.     

银行市场结构国外研究述评

作为货币政策"信用观"之一的银行信贷渠道理论强调银行信贷资金的可贷性.国外学者对金融结构与货币政策传导机制的研究(如银行信贷渠道的存在性、地位及银行部门的角色等问题)存在很大差异.虽然这些研究多以西方国家完善的银行体系和资本市场体系为背景,但对于中国这样转型国家的货币政策制定实施也具有重要启示意义.     

Assessing the Business Value of Information Technology in Global Wholesale Banking: The Case of Trade Services

The investment in information technologies (IT) in the financial services sector has proliferated in the last decade. Yet there is very little research examining the impact of IT in the financial services sector. In this article, we focus on the trade services application in global wholesale banking. We use the production function approach to estimate the impact of IT in this application. Our estimate of the output elasticity of IT is positive and statistically significant. In addition, we find that the return on investment of IT (increase in dollar revenue per dollar spent in IT) is about 100% per year, holding labor input constant. Our study provides one instance of direct evidence that IT has a favorable impact on productivity in the financial services sector.     

Managing Customer Switching Behavior in the Banking Industry

This study aimed to explore the factors that lead to the intention to stay and the intention to switch in the banking industry. The research adopted a qualitative, inductive approach to data collection using a sample of 19 Australians customers who use banking services, and two Australian bank managers. The factors that are important to the customers' decision to change banks or to diversify their accounts include: (a) customer service and customer intimacy; (b) response to service failure; (c) effect of advertising; (d) reputation; (e) ease of banking; and (f) customer value.     

银行危机传导机制的理论分析

了解传导机制可以为阻断危机蔓延提供科学依据,本文从危机传导的基本内涵入手,分析了银行危机传导的诱因——银行脆弱性,提出金融脆弱性是银行危机传导的根本原因。本文在银行危机传导传统定义的基础上重新界定了该概念,分析了银行危机传导的途径,认为金融脆弱性是银行危机传导的重要媒介,防止银行危机传导的根本措施是提高银行的稳健性。     

双循环新发展格局下我国影子银行的监管

影子银行作为正规金融体系的有益补充,是发展直接融资的有效渠道,在我国金融业助力双循环新发展格局构建中的作用不容忽视。目前,与其他主要经济体相比,我国影子银行资产规模占GDP比重排名比较靠后,整体体量较小,未来发展空间很大。不过,我国影子银行长期处于监管盲区,传统监管体制无法实施及时而有效的监管,既不利于我国金融系统安全稳定,也不利于双循环新发展格局的构建。特别是金融业内外循环扩大了法律关系模糊带来的消极影响,放大了刚性兑付带来的金融资源循环受阻问题,增加了监管缺乏带来的金融系统不稳定因素,导致我国影子银行监管缺位问题进一步凸显。影子银行是金融系统性风险的一个重要来源,尽管我国已经建立了以中国银行保险监督管理委员会为主体的影子银行监管体系,但分散管理的弊端依然比较明显。为充分发挥影子银行积极作用,助力我国双循环新发展格局构建,应从顶层着手设计有效的监管制度,规避影子银行可能带来的风险。具体而言,一是建立科学完善的全面统计制度,掌握内外循环中的金融家底;二是建立健全规范而有效的管理架构,防范内外循环中的金融风险;三是积极主动参与国际规则制定,实现国内与国际规则的全面接轨以及内外循环规则的连通;四是引入监管负面清单制度,平衡金融创新保护与金融风险防范。     

提高我国银行业监管有效性的对策研究

在大多数经济体中,银行一直是最主要的金融中介。近年来,不断发展的金融市场和不断出现的风险使银行业监管面临新的挑战。根据对制约银行业监管有效性的因素分析,寻求提高监管效能的路径,其目的是实现确保银行体系安全和稳健运行,加快银行业监管专业化和国际化进程。     

面向现代电子商务的网上银行安全问题探讨

网上银行的安全是网银用户最为关心的问题,银行和相关部门也一直在采取多种措施致力完善,保证客户的交易安全。但是,网上银行业务的安全,需要政府各部门、各银行金融机构、用户等各方的共同努力,从多方面入手,才能得到有效保证。     

Financial Sector Volatility,Banking Market Structure and Exports

This paper assesses the impacts of financial sector volatility and banking market structure on industrial exports. By utilising the specification of Rajan and Zingales (American Economic Review 1998; 88 , 559) on the cross‐country, cross‐industry data from Manova (Journal of International Economics 2008; 76 , 33), we find that financial sector volatility, measured as the standard deviation of the growth of private credit, and banking market structure, measured as the share of the three largest banks’ assets in a country, respectively exert significantly negative and positive impacts on industrial exports, particularly for those industries that are more externally financially dependent. The findings are robust to a variety of kinds of sensitivity analysis and thus lend support to the notion that a more stable and concentrated banking system is important to the exports of those industries that rely more on external finance.     

The Application of a Relationship Marketing Perspective in Retail Banking

This article considers the development of relationship marketing in retail financial services. It begins by examining the relationship marketing literature and considering its application to the retail banking industry. Following a discussion of the research methodology, four in-depth retail bank case studies are presented. These cases form the basis of a qualitative analysis of the state of relationship marketing in retail banking. Many banks have already reached a higher level of relationship marketing than businesses in other sectors. Yet generic relationship marketing models such as the one applied in this research do not necessarily reflect these differences. A modified version of a relationship marketing model, which caters for the particular characteristics of retail banks and which may be applicable to other services businesses, is therefore proposed.