Persistent Unemployment and Policy Uncertainty: Numerical Evidence from a New Approach

In the recovery from the United States’ 2009 recession, unemployment has proven resistant to both aggressive fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy. A possible explanation is the policy cost uncertainty hypothesis. This holds that managers of private firms have been rationally avoiding hiring workers in the years after 2010 because of the risk of higher future costs imposed by government policies. However, such a hypothesis cannot be directly tested in standard models of firm behavior. Thus, to formally test the policy cost uncertainty hypothesis, we use a novel “value functional” or “recursive” model of firm behavior, in which managers maximize the value of the business rather than its profits. Using this approach, we demonstrate that policy cost uncertainty affects the hiring decisions of firms, that the response to policy uncertainty is higher in some industries than others, and that the scale of the firm also affects its sensitivity to policy risk. This approach has potentially broad application within business economics, particularly in evaluating investment and hiring decisions; real options; and other aspects of uncertainty, fixed costs, and managerial flexibility.     

Chinese Luxury Consumers: Motivation,Attitude and Behavior

This study examines Chinese consumers’ motives, attitudes toward luxury brands (ATLB), and the impact of ATLB on consumer behavior. Specifically, Chinese luxury consumers were segmented into three groups: the elitist, the distant, and the democratic. Compared to the democratic group, the more one believes luxury is of good quality, the less likely one will belong to the distant group; the more likely one buys luxury for others, the more likely one belongs to the distant group. The more one buys luxury for self-actualization, the more likely one belongs to the elitist group. The more one consumes luxury for social comparison reasons, the more likely one belongs to the elitist. The more often one buys luxury for special times, the more likely one belongs to the elitist. Results show that the elitist on average bought more pieces of luxury products than the distant and the democratic.     

产业安全研究:理论、经验与政策

在西方学术界,产业安全有深刻的理论渊源,包括重商主义、贸易保护主义和发展经济学等,但当前专门针对产业安全的研究很少。自20世纪90年代中期以来,中国国内学术界对产业安全的关注越来越多,方法也越来越科学,已形成了许多高水平的研究成果,涉及理论辨析、经验评价和政策讨论等多个方面。本文将对产业安全在西方学术界的理论渊源和国内相关研究文献进行全面的回顾和述评。     

美国经济政策不确定性溢出效应研究:来自新兴经济体银团贷款的证据

近年来,中国面临外部风险冲击因素明显增多,其中以美国经济政策不确定性溢出效应影响最为突出。为系统评估美国经济政策不确定性对微观市场主体融资的影响,利用1989年1月至2019年7月美国经济政策不确定性数据以及38个新兴经济体企业银团贷款数据,实证分析了美国经济政策不确定性的溢出效应。研究发现:美国经济政策不确定性对新兴经济体企业融资存在溢出效应,即随着美国经济政策不确定性、货币政策不确定性和贸易政策不确定性的增加,新兴经济体企业银团贷款利率会显著提高。进一步研究发现,美国经济政策不确定性溢出渠道包括美元贷款和美国银行贷款等,美国经济政策不确定性和货币政策不确定性会通过美元和美国银行贷款路径显著提高新兴经济体企业银团贷款利率,而贸易政策不确定性仅通过美元贷款渠道对新兴经济体企业银团贷款利率产生溢出效应。     

Policy uncertainty and FDI: Evidence from national elections

This paper examines the impact of policy uncertainty on FDI among 126 countries from 1996 to 2015. Using the timing of national elections as a proxy for policy uncertainty, we find that FDI drops significantly in election years, when policy uncertainty increases. The negative effect of policy uncertainty on FDI also depends on the degree of democratization and the political system. In democracies and countries with the Assembly elected president, the decline of FDI in election years is far more pronounced. Our results highlight the role of policy environment and institution in economic development.     

Determinants of Benefits in the Retail Payments Market: Evidence from Russian Consumers

Abstract

This study identifies the determinants of consumer benefits values in the retail payments market. Using a mix of quantitative (nation-wide representative survey of 1500 individuals) and qualitative inputs (8 focus groups and 32 in-depth interviews), this study finds robust evidence which supports the importance of internal and external user characteristics for the benefits value explanation. Other factors exhibit partial or no correlation with benefits values. Total welfare is efficiently distributed across the market. Findings imply new factors affecting consumer behavior in the retail payments market and suggest a basis for the reassessment of marketing and regulatory strategies.     

Stock Liquidity and Firm Value: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in India

The Indian securities market regulator intervened in June 2010 with a regulatory amendment in the listing requirement that mandated all the listed firms other than PSUs (government‐owned companies) to have a minimum public shareholding of 25%. The affected firms were given a 3‐year window to comply with the regulation. This study examines the impact of the new regulation on the affected firms’ value. We explore the relationship between improvement in firms’ value and stock liquidity. This regulatory intervention offers a natural experiment to examine direct causality between stock liquidity and firms’ value. The findings of the empirical analysis confirm the existence of a direct causal relationship between stock liquidity and firm value, stemming from an improved operating performance.     

The Impact of Electronic Payments for Vulnerable Consumers: Evidence from Social Security

Vulnerable consumers may face barriers to using electronic payments, especially consumers in “unbanked” households where no member has an account to receive payments. In March 2013, the US Social Security Administration transitioned exclusively to electronic payments, representing a large shift in payment mode mandated at the federal level. This study identifies the size and characteristics of the population impacted by this shift, by linking administrative data on Social Security payments to a nationally representative survey on the use of bank accounts and financial services. We find that the majority of unbanked Social Security recipients took up electronic payments well before the March 2013 deadline. The mandate does not appear to have increased the use of bank accounts. Instead, recipients used electronic payment cards. However, the transition to electronic payments was slowest among the most financially vulnerable households, suggesting a focus on these households as payment methods continue to develop.     

Understanding Attitude and Behavior of Canadian Consumers Toward Organic Wine

The main objective of this study is to identify the determinants of organic wine purchase and understand their effect in order to illustrate what influences whether Canadian consumers are willing to buy this special type of wine. The data for this study were collected across Canada by means of an online self-administered consumer questionnaire survey. Our major findings indicate that the attitude toward organic wine is defined mainly by consumers’ health consciousness and is negatively influenced by the wine involvement pleasure experienced with regular wine. Interestingly, Canadians are not forming positive attitudes toward organic wine based on their knowledge of organic production and its offering. The main predictors of organic wine purchase are attitude toward organic wine and wine involvement interest. Unexpectedly, price consciousness was not found to be a good predictor of organic wine purchase.     

Global Social Preferences and the Demand for Socially Responsible Products: Empirical Evidence from a Pilot Study on Fair Trade Consumers

We analyse behaviour and motivations of a sample of about 1,000 consumers purchasing ‘fair trade (FT) goods’, i.e. food and artisan goods which include socially responsible (SR) characteristics and a price premium for primary product producers with respect to equivalent non‐FT products. By estimating a simultaneous two‐equation treatment effect model we find that FT products have less than unit of income elasticity and their demand is negatively (positively) correlated with geographical distance from the nearest shop (age and awareness of SR criteria). Awareness of SR criteria depends, in turn, on a series of factors (consumption habits, membership of volunteer associations) which, indirectly (via increased awareness), significantly affect consumption. We also measure consumers’ willingness to pay in excess for the SR features of FT products with a contingent evaluation approach and find that it is positively correlated with awareness of SR criteria.     

California Remote Subdivisions: Policy Implications for Consumers and Rural Communities

Extensive subdivision development on remote rural lands during the early 1970's has generated considerable concern about possible long-term consequences to purchasers and local government finances. This study of California's Northeastern Plateau region utilizes socio-economic characteristics, purchase motivations, and use-intentions of purchasers as the basis for examining possible local community and purchaser impacts. While purchaser characteristics indicate limited property use, expressed intentions to build or install residences prior to 1980 indicate a potentially dramatic impact on the region's population base. Although local government revenue impacts are impossible to assess conclusively, the results suggest local officials would be well advised to establish buildout policies for existing subdivisions prior to approving additional remote subdivisions. Expectations about property-use and investment potential appear to be unrealistic and are attributable to buyers' inexperience, inadequate information, and sales misrepresentations. While suggesting that the “fair, just and equitable” determination be re-examined for within-state sales, the results also suggest other states should not become overly optimistic about consumer protection provided by California's Subdivided Lands Act.     

Consumers as risk takers: Evidence from the film industry during the 1930s

This paper examines the risk environment of film consumption in the United States during the 1930s when moviegoing dwarfed all other paid-for leisure activities. We argue that the wide variability in the financial performance of films, reflecting the considerable risks that were involved in film production, can be interpreted as being mirrored in the risks incurred by consumers in the film consumption process. We further argue that production risk needs to be understood within the context of consumer risk. Using a dataset derived from the trade journal Variety, we examine the weekly fortunes of movies in first-run cinemas as consumers rapidly substitute movies that are currently on release for the promised pleasures of yet unseen movies. That expected utility was not always realised was commonplace, as was the pleasurable surprise that came with being thrilled by certain films. These are important results since, perhaps for the first time in modern society, they led to the emergence of the long right tail of consumer preferences for mass distributed goods.     

Managerial Incentives and Investment Policy in Family Firms: Evidence from a Structural Analysis

This paper provides evidence that CEO incentive pay mediates the effect of family preferences on corporate investment policy. Our study focuses on the option portfolio volatility sensitivity vega, which motivates the risk‐taking behavior of undiversified managers. After controlling for factors that affect incentive pay and investment policy simultaneously, we find that one‐third of underinvestment in riskier R&D projects in active family firms can be attributed to a significantly lower vega. Passive family firms allocate more capital to R&D as opposed to active family firms, and are more active in M&A deal making. In contrast to many prior studies, pay incentives and families are not associated with capital expenditures. Overall, our empirical results suggest that CEO pay incentives induce investment policy contingent on firm risk. Family CEO incentive pay manifests the family preference for lower risk, especially in firms with higher firm risk. Nonetheless, after replacing family CEOs with outside professionals, investments in both R&D and M&A increase, which is consistent with the family preference for extended investment horizons. Interestingly, such a preference seems not to be manifested in incentive pay.     

Consumers' Role Performance and Brand Identification: Evidence from a Survey and a Longitudinal Field Experiment

Why do some consumers evangelize brands and create value for them even without receiving any direct reward in return? How do their motivations influence their role behaviors and their identification with the company or brand? We draw on motivation theory and the in- and extra-role literature of leadership to propose a theoretical framework. We use this framework to analyze data from one cross-sectional survey conducted with members of two online brand communities and one longitudinal field experiment with consumers of one new online brand community. We first separate community members' motivations into three types of psychological needs (self-competency, self-belongingness, self-autonomy) that are fulfilled by membership in a brand community. We investigate how each of these needs influences consumers' in-role and extra-role behaviors, which in turn positively affect their brand identification and create value for the company. Our results show that self-competency motivates both in- and extra-role behaviors, self-belongingness only increases less involved in-role behaviors, and self-autonomy only affects more involved extra-role behaviors. Both role behaviors foster beneficial consumer brand identification. We discuss how these findings can inform marketers' brand community-building strategies.     

世贸组织降低贸易政策不确定性

适逢世贸组织问世二十周年和多哈回合成败的关键时刻,世界贸易组织发表了一份署名为《贸易政策不确定性和世界贸易组织》的研究报告。报告向世界展示了世贸组织为克服贸易政策不确定性做出了积极贡献。报告借用独立研究专家的分析模型得出两个重要结论,一是成员对世贸的承诺大大降低了提升关税的几率,即便约束税率高于现行最惠国税率;二是通过世贸监督机制降低了贸易政策的不确定性。2008年金融危机爆发并引发全球经济危机,贸易保护主义压力攀升,很多学者和商界人士都担心会重演上世纪三十年代的大规模贸易战。不过,2014年世贸组织对G20     

Consumers and Biotechnology: A Synopsis of Survey and Focus Group Research

The Office of Consumer Affairs of Industry Canada, in conjunction with other federal departments, has undertaken preliminary work to identify concerns and highlight consumer issues with respect to biotechnology and its applications. This has included conducting a number of surveys and focus groups to identify what consumers know about biotechnology; where there are information gaps; and how information impacts upon consumers' purchasing decisions.This paper is structured into five sections. First, it provides an overview of some background information on biotechnology. The second section summarises consumers' knowledge of, and reactions to, biotechnology. Next, the paper highlights factors that influence consumers' attitudes towards biotechnology. The fourth section examines two ways of overcoming marketplace barriers contrasting increased consumer awareness with more traditional legislative mechanisms. The concluding section outlines questions that need to be answered in order to determine how the marketplace can best address issues related to biotechnological products.     

Behavioral Interventions to Increase Tax‐Time Saving: Evidence from a National Randomized Trial

We provide new large‐scale experimental evidence on policies that aim to boost household saving out of income tax refunds. Households that filed income tax returns with an online tax preparer and chose to receive their refund electronically were randomized into eight treatment groups, which received different combinations of motivational saving prompts and suggested shares of the refund to save—25% and 75%—and a control group, which received neither. In treatment conditions where they were presented, motivational prompts focused on various savings goals: general, retirement, or emergency. Analysis reveals that higher suggested that allocations generated increased allocations of the refund to savings but that prompts for different reasons to save did not. These interventions, which draw on lessons from behavioral economics, represent potentially low‐cost, scalable tools for policy makers interested in helping low‐ and moderate‐income households build savings.     

中国政府储蓄研究:实践考察与政策应对

高储蓄率支撑了中国的投资增长,但也引起了经济的内外失衡。中国政府储蓄近年来对总储蓄的贡献度不断增加,适度控制政府储蓄增长,是提高最终消费、解决当前经济失衡矛盾的重要措施。本文按照不同口径对中国政府储蓄的历史与现实状况进行考察,并且在资金流量表基础上对政府储蓄的结构进行了深入探讨与比较分析。在明确政府储蓄的影响因素之后,提出了应对的重点与对策。     

Consumers’ Ethical Beliefs: The Roles of Money,Religiosity and Attitude toward Business

This article presents the results of a study that investigated the roles that one’s money ethic, religiosity and attitude toward business play in determining consumer attitudes/beliefs in various situations regarding questionable consumer practices. Two dimensions of religiosity – intrinsic and extrinsic religiousness – were studied. A global scale of money ethic was examined, as was a global measure of attitude toward business. Results indicate that both types of religiosity as well as one’s money ethic and attitude toward business were significant determinants of at least some types of consumer ethical beliefs. Scott J. Vitell is Phil B. Hardin Professor of Marketing at the University of Mississippi. He received his Ph.D. in Marketing from Texas Tech University. His recent publications have appeared in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Retailing, the Journal of Business Ethics and the Journal of Consumer Marketing, among others. Jatinder J. Singh is a Ph.D. student in marketing at the University of Mississippi. He received his masters from Punjab Technical University, India. He has authored papers previously published in the Journal of Business Ethics and a paper for the American Marketing Association’s Winter Educators’ Conference. Joseph G.P. Paolillo is a Professor of Management in the School of Business at the University of Mississippi. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Oregon, Eugene in Organization and Management. His publications have appeared in the Journal of Management, Journal of Management Studies, Human Relations, Group and Organization Studies, The Accounting Review, Journal of Advertising and Journal of Business Ethics, among several others.