On the Autocorrelation of Growth Rates

This paper studies the serial autocorrelation of annual growth rates in employment for selected Austrian service industries over a 30-year period using quantile regression techniques. The autocorrelation of growth rates provides important information on firms growth processes. We find that the growth patterns of micro firms are strikingly different from the growth patterns of small, medium-sized and larger firms. First, we do find a positive dependency of growth on size for growing micro firms, while this relationship is negative for the other size groups. Second, growing micro firms are subject to negative autocorrelation of annual growth rates making sustained growth a very rate occurrence, while larger growing firms usually display a positive autocorrelation suggesting that high growth episodes of larger firms stretch over a longer time horizon. This indicates that the growth of micro firms in particular is characterized by a rather lumpy growth profile. Furthermore, we find that the autocorrelation patterns are asymmetric with regard to decline and growth.     

The Positive Effect of Motivation and International Orientation on SME Growth

This empirical study on small and medium‐sized enterprise growth investigates the relationship between motivation for growth, international orientation, and subsequent performance by following 247 firms over 11 years. Using a combination of regression analysis and structural equation modeling, the authors find the international orientation of the firm to be a consistent predictor of growth in revenue and exports. The authors also find the international orientation of the firm to be closely interrelated with motivation for growth: Firms with managers and owners having a strong motivation for growth tend also to have managers with high international orientation and display superior growth both domestically and abroad. Whereas motivation seems independent of past performance, it has a profound positive influence on the growth in revenue. Moreover, the findings reveal that some firms are able to sustain high growth rates over an extended period of time. The study supports the contention that some firms are able to systematically outperform the rest.     

Economic growth,trade and capital flows: A causal analysis of post-liberalised South Africa

Development Finance and EconometricsThis paper investigates the causal relationships between trade, capital inflows and economic growth in post-liberalised South Africa over the period from 1995 to 2011. The results show that economic growth in South Africa is driven primarily by trade and fixed investment rather than by capital inflows. However, the relationship between economic growth and imports is bidirectional, and thus economic growth in South Africa is associated to a greater extent with the export-led growth hypothesis than the import-led growth hypothesis. In addition, the results find in favour of growth-led FDI rather than FDI-led growth, and that portfolio inflows rather than FDI are integrated into the country's trade-led growth dynamics.     

The pattern of changes in the long-term development of establishment size

Hypotheses and analyses dealing with the expansion of small businesses are usually carried out over relatively short periods of time. The patterns drawn from these examinations, e.g., on the question of specific differences in the growth of size, are usually influenced by configurations of the overall economy and limit the realization of regular processes to the phases they are based upon. A second disadvantage lies in most cases in the fact that data sources are used for the empirical analyses that do not cover the economic system as a whole nor for all sizes of establishments. This study attempts to present the development of the sizes of establishments in Germany over a period of more than one hundred years (1882 to 1987) and thus avoids the narrow perspective of previous examinations. It becomes evident that this development does not take a continuous course; instead, it follows a wave pattern. Since this discontinuous development pattern is common to almost all sectors, it appears to be a general phenomenon. This study reveals that the small establishments with more than five employees, contrary to most theoretical assumptions, are of utmost importance even when considered over a long period of time. The growth of small establishments in recent years, observable in all sectors, may not be a unique phenomenon; however, in view of an overall growth of employment and the simultaneous shrinking of large establishments, it occurs under a new constellation.     

The evolution of growth intentions: Toward a cognition-based model

This research examines the relationship between growth intentions, cognitive style, and perceived competitive conditions, with a focus on whether and why intentions change over time. Drawing on qualitative data from a sample of 30 entrepreneurs over a five-year span, we find that entrepreneurs' cognitive style moderates the relationship between perceptions of the competitive environment and growth intentions. Entrepreneurs with differing cognitive styles vary in their approaches toward formulating and revising growth intentions. Relative to analytic entrepreneurs that exhibit greater stability in their intentions, holistic entrepreneurs are prone to greater variations in growth intentions. The findings have implications for future research, practice, public policy, and entrepreneurship training and development.     

Microdynamics of Turkey's Export Boom in the 2000s

This paper examines the microdynamics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated exporter‐level customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002–11, we characterise firm‐level dynamics in the export sector and we decompose export growth at the aggregate, sectoral and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover and product turnover. We show that year‐to‐year aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations and products accounts for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth over longer periods. The patterns of microdynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net exporter entry plays a more critical role for export growth over longer periods.     

Growth paths and survival chances: An application of Gambler's Ruin theory

This paper links new firm survival with growth, with a focus on the patterns in firms' growth paths. We theorise a Gambler's Ruin framework by arguing that new firm performance is best modelled as a random walk process, but that survival is nonrandom and depends primarily on the stock of accumulated resources. A firm's resources are either there when the business begins or are generated by successful periods — ‘wins’. The empirical section tracks, over six years, the sales and survival/non-survival of 6247 UK start-ups which all began trading in the same quarter of 2004. We do not find strong evidence in favour of a taxonomy of growth paths, because we observe that every possible growth path seems to occur with roughly equal probability. However, we observe that growth paths influence subsequent survival. Controlling for lagged size, we observe that longer lags of growth, and even start-up size, have significant effects on survival.     

Employment Creation in Small Technological and Design Innovators in the U.K. during the 1980s

This paper provides rare empirical evidence on employment creation by innovative small firms in the U.K. over the eleven years between 1980 and 1991. Drawing on a database of firms which were recognised as having introduced important innovations, the paper examines the extent of employment growth in these companies and compares their growth with that discovered by other studies of small firms in the U.K. This shows that the innovative firms have grown at a significantly faster average rate than small firms generally. Some of the factors associated with employment change in small firms are assessed. This shows that the initial size, age, sector of activity and type of innovation introduced by the firms were all associated with differences in their average rate of growth. The employment created was, however, highly concentrated in a few firms, but even the fastest growing of these companies (directly) created hundreds rather than thousands of new jobs over the period of analysis.     

基于人力资本的FDI与经济增长关系:省际面板数据研究

本文根据1987-2004年我国29个省份的统计数据,建立Panel-Data模型,在考虑FDI与经济增长的内生性的基础上运用固定效应和随机效应分析方法,研究了外商直接投资对我国经济增长的影响。实证结果表明：FDI本身并未给经济增长带来益处,它需要与人力资本相结合,才能促进经济的增长。1987-2004年间与FDI相结合的是具有中等教育水平的人力资本,但是随着FDI产业结构的调整,近年来FDI与人力资本相结合的层次开始发生改变,具有高等教育水平的人力资本对于FDI技术外溢效应的发挥开始起促进作用,但是由于调整有一定的时滞,这种正向的作用还不显著。     

Three Simple Techniques to Analyze a Complex Economic Phenomenon: The Case of Profits

This paper seeks to characterize the behavior of profits over the business cycle as a model for analyzing any economic series by a practicing business economist. It addresses three fundamental questions about profits that are common and critical to identifying the behavior of any macroeconomic series—mean-reversion, volatility, and trend. First, does profit growth over time exhibit mean-reverting behavior? Second, how volatile are profits, and does this volatility obscure the message of average profit growth? Third, how can we estimate a long-run trend growth component for profits and thereby separate profit cycles from its long-run trend growth component?     

Firm strategies in expanding and diversifying exports

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the patterns and dynamics of exports by Irish firms over the past two decades from a highly detailed data set of export records at the firm‐product‐destination level. We identify patterns of export concentration and specialisation and how these evolved over time. Firms’ strategies for export growth along product and destination markets mixes are then examined and the contributions of intensive (average sales) and extensive (number of products or markets) margins to overall exports and to export growth are calculated. We find that most exporting firms are quite small, selling a few products to a small number of destinations while export values are dominated by a relatively small group of highly globalised large firms selling many products to many destinations. Continuing exporters frequently introduce new products, drop products and enter and exit markets. Export growth in the case of Irish‐owned exporters appears largely driven by the extensive margin of product and destination changes. However, the opposite pattern holds for foreign‐owned firms with growth mainly coming from the intensive margin.     

A qualitative and longitudinal analysis of market orientation

This work analyzes the dynamic effect of market orientation (MO) on organizational performance, both in the long term and in the short term. The performance was measured by the sales growth and profitability. The methodology used is innovative as it quantifies the MO with a qualitative technique: content analysis. Data from the Spanish banking sector between 2005 and 2007 are the basis of a longitudinal study. The results indicate that the banks that develop an MO approach maintain this approach over time. On the other hand, MO does not seem to have a direct effect on profitability, but does affect the long-term sales growth.     

Wachstumsschwäche,Bankenmalaise und Bankenregulierung

The paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about appropriate policies towards banks when economic growth is lagging. Whereas the European Commission and representatives of the German government argue that strict banking regulation harms economic growth, the comparison between Europe and the US suggests that the opposite is true and that weak economic growth, even in Germany, is due to the insufficiency of the clean-up following the financial crisis. The ECB’s attempts to force banks to increase their lending exacerbate their weaknesses. The paper warns against confusing mere growth in demand, fuelled by credit and possibly unsustainable, with sustainable output growth, fuelled by appropriate lending and investments. Such investments will not be forthcoming if banks are weak and their decisions are distorted by debt overhang and hidden insolvency. Hopes that debt overhang will be reduced over time are illusory if banking is unprofitable. Immediate recapitalisations would be better and should be possible if banks are perceived as solvent. The view that strict banking regulation harms economic growth is in conflict with experience, including the tightening of capital requirements since 2010.     

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation, in line with movements in underlying fundamentals, has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate, deviations around steady-state equilibrium, have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates increased contraction of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. While exchange rate fluctuations had a positive net effect on export growth before 2003, the net effect is negative for the post-2002 period. The implications are anticipated movement in the exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time.     

The economic growth and foreign direct investment nexus: Does democracy matter? Evidence from African countries

This article investigates the impact of democracy on the foreign direct investment (FDI)–economic growth nexus by considering both a country's current and past political regimes. We apply a linear dynamic panel data model to data from 53 African countries over the period 1989–2014. Standard errors of the estimates are Weidmeijer corrected, following an orthogonal deviations transformation. The results show that the direct impact of FDI on growth is positive and significant. Likewise, the stock of democracy plays a positive and significant role in the growth process. However, the positive impact of FDI on growth decreases with the improvement in the historical experience of a country with democracy. These findings imply that with contemporary efforts to expand political rights in Africa, it is critical to identify alternative channels that facilitate the transmission of the flow of FDI into further and sustainable growth.     

Estimating the speeds of long-run technological catch-up and growth of total factor productivity for countries

This paper constructs a dynamic production frontier function under the framework of a forward-looking rational expectations model, taking the effect of quasi-fixed inputs into account. The sample comprises balanced panel data of 36 countries over the period from 1990 to 2009. Evidence is found that all of the four country groups show the technological catch-up phenomenon in the long run and experience total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Their TFP growth is primarily driven by long-run technical efficiency improvement, followed by technological progress. The Non-G7 and Non-NICs groups are the top two groups in terms of speeds of long-run technological catch-up and rates of TFP growth.     

Firm Growth and Supply Chain Partnerships: An Empirical Analysis of U.K. SME Subcontractors

This paper examines the performance of a sample of 211 U.K.subcontractors to evaluate whether differences in how they manage their supply chain relationships are associated with differences in (sales and employment)growth rates over two consecutive 3 year periods from 1993 to 1999.We identified 34 firms that had close partnership relationships with members of their supply chain. Our empirical findings indicate that firms with inter-firm partnership arrangements with members of their supply chain experienced significantly higher growth rates. These results suggest that inter-firm partnerships may facilitate more rapid and sustained SME growth,though further research is required to determine the role played by partnerships and the extent to which this may vary to reflect differing owner-manager motivations and growth opportunities.     

Double Deflation and the Measurement of Output and Productivity in UK Manufacturing 1979–89

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of applying double deflation methods to the measurement of productivity growth in UK manufacturing between 1979 and 1989. A number of alternative indicators of output growth are considered and it is argued that double deflated value added is the superior concept to employ for the measurement of productivity. It is shown that output measured by double deflated value added fell by 0.05% over the period between 1979 and 1989 whereas the official series indicates that output rose by 12.2% over the period. Measuring productivity as output per person employed, the double deflated value added measure indicates that between 1979 and 1989productivity increased by 34%> whereas the official series indicates an increase of 51 %. Whereas the latter may indicate a productivity miracle the former does not     

Why emerging markets?

The substantial returns promised by developing country stock markets have attracted very significant capital flows. The phenomenon began with the rapid growth rates of countries on the Pacific Rim duirng the early 1980s, and today continues to grow in Latin America. Kuczynski asserts that the days when investing was like shooting fish in a barrel are over, but the so-called emerging capital market phenomenon is here to stay—it is simply part and parcel of new economic growth and development.     

The role of domestic and cross-border venture capital investors in the growth of portfolio companies

This paper studies how the presence of cross-border as opposed to domestic venture capital investors is associated with the growth of portfolio companies. For this purpose, we use a longitudinal research design and track sales, total assets and payroll expenses in 761 European technology companies from the year of initial venture capital investment up to seven years thereafter. Findings demonstrate how companies initially backed by domestic venture capital investors exhibit higher growth in the short term compared to companies backed by cross-border investors. In the medium term, companies initially backed by cross-border venture capital investors exhibit higher growth compared to companies backed by domestic investors. Finally, companies that are initially funded by a syndicate comprising both domestic and cross-border venture capital investors exhibit the highest growth. Overall, this study provides a more fine-grained understanding of the role that domestic and cross-border venture capital investors can play as their portfolio companies grow and thereby require different resources or capabilities over time.