What is on the ECB’s mind? Monetary policy before and after the global financial crisis

This paper analyzes the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) both before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. In the literature, researchers typically select one Taylor rule-based model to analyze monetary policy of central banks and to derive determinants for the interest rate setting. However, uncertainty about the choice of this respective model is typically neglected. In contrast, we apply a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to extend the Taylor rule to account for model uncertainty driven by heterogeneity in the ECB’s decision-making body, the Governing Council. Our results suggest the following: First, the ECB focuses on the inflation rate when setting interest rates. Second, economic activity indicators were in the focus of the ECB before the financial crisis. Third, over the last decade, the role of economic activity decreased, indicating that inflation is the main driver of monetary policy decisions in the post-crisis period. Fourth, when setting interest rates, central bankers appear to consider more than one model.     

Understanding China’s external imbalances

The paper is intended to provide a comprehensive explanation of China’s external imbalances, which are characterized by current account surplus and financial account surplus. The thrust of the paper is that China’s current account surplus is not simply an effect of the savings gap. Rather, it is a result of complicated interactions among various factors in a dynamic fashion. Hence, to keep the current account surplus-to-GDP ratio at a rational level, the implementation of comprehensive policies that address all relevant factors at the same time as well as fundamental restructuring are necessary.     

From internal imbalances to global imbalances: a survey on the causes of China’s export-led growth

There is a broad consensus that China’s export- and investment-led growth model is unsustainable and therefore needs to become more balanced. In the public debate, Chinese exchange rate interventions are mostly made (solely) responsible for this. But it is unclear whether and how much the Renminbi is undervalued, and if an exchange rate appreciation helps to reduce China’s current account surplus significantly. This survey reviews the international literature on China’s export-oriented growth model. Internal structural imbalances in the Chinese economy, resulting in an extremely low consumption-to-GDP share by historical and international standards, play hereby a central role. Related to this are: 1) the drop in household and wage income as a share of GDP and low employment growth, and its impact on consumption demand; 2) the increase in income uncertainty and inequality, and its impact on household savings; and 3) the role of government spending, i.e., high and increasing public surpluses. The central policy challenge is therefore to increase household incomes, and to reduce income inequality and uncertainty.     

Financial sector opening and financial constraints: an empirical study based on China’s experiences

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates the effect of financial sector opening on financial constraints based on the experiences in China. We firstly review the policy of China’s financial sector opening and set up exogenous policy measures. Then based on the panel data of listed firms from 2010 to 2015, we calculate four indices to measure China’s firm-level financial constraints through internal and external finance channels. We find that China’s financial sector opening alleviates financial constraints and upgrades the financing structure for China’s listed firms. Financial sector opening also eliminates ownership discrimination and promotes financing efficiency, to alleviate financial constraints of private enterprises and profitable enterprises. The mechanism of the effects of financial sector opening on financial constrain is mainly through the collateral channels and the elimination of information asymmetry.     

Migrants’ well-being during the global financial crisis: Economic and social predictors

This paper investigates the economic and social predictors affecting the well-being of temporary migrants before, during and after the financial crisis. Exploiting unique panel data which cover migration spells from Tajikistan to Russia between 2001 and 2011, we find that migrants earn less but stay longer in the destination during the crisis; at the same time, they become more exposed to illegal work relations, harassment and deportation through the Russian authorities. The overall income loss can be attributed to wage cuts and to rising illegal employment that is generally poorly paid. Despite the similarities in the demographics and jobs of migrant workers, we find substantial heterogeneity in how the financial crisis affects their well-being. Migrants who experience wage losses during the crisis rationally stop migrating.     

How to reform China’s fiscal system?

ABSTRACT

As the population aging, China’s government expenditures, including general fiscal expenditure, healthcare and social security expenditure, will grow more rapidly than government revenues, tending to elevate government debt. Local governments undertake overwhelming 85% of total general fiscal revenue and are responsible for healthcare and social security, and their debt has been growing. Fiscal reforms are imperative, including tax reforms, the structure of government spending reforms, social security reforms, healthcare reforms, local public finance reforms, and central and local government’s fiscal relationship reforms. This paper will explore the fiscal challenges China faces and discuss how to reform the fiscal system to cope with these challenges.     

Global financial cycle and Brazil’s financial integration

ABSTRACT

Recent studies have discussed the influence of the global financial cycle on capital flows to emerging and developing countries. This paper evaluates the relationship between the greater degree of financial integration, and macroeconomic performance over the last two decades in Brazil. The literature has highlighted the Brazilian experience as being paradigmatic among emerging countries regarding the relationship between financial integration and regulation of capital flows to deal with boom and bust cycles. Methodologically, we employ a vector autoregressive model with error correction that allows us to evaluate the cointegration between the variables. Our main hypothesis is that a greater degree of financial integration is associated with negative developments in variables such as gross domestic product, country risk, interest rates, and exchange rate volatility. In addition, this study presents a further contribution by observing the existence of the interaction between the consequences of financial integration and the global financial cycle. More specifically, we found that: (i) an increase in the degree of financial integration generates deeper effects in downward periods of the global financial cycle; and (ii) a decline in that cycle generates greater impacts when a higher degree of financial integration is present.     

What can we tell about monetary policy synchronization and interdependence over the 2007–2009 global financial crisis?

We investigate the synchronization and nonlinear adjustment dynamics of short-term interest rates for France, the UK and the US using the bi-directional feedback measures proposed by Geweke (1982) and appropriate smooth transition error-correction models (STECM). We find evidence to support the increasing synchronization of these rates over the period 2005–2009 as well as of their lead–lag causal interactions. Moreover, short-term interest rates converge towards a common long-run equilibrium in a nonlinear manner and their time dynamics exhibit regime-switching behavior. As far as the underlying types of monetary policies conducted by the world’s leading central banks are concerned, our empirical evidence thus reveals strong interdependence, but only some degree of synchronization.     

America’s flawed paradigm: macroeconomic causes of the financial crisis and great recession

This paper traces the roots of the financial crisis and Great Recession to a flawed U.S. macroeconomic paradigm that was adopted around 1980 with the triumph of neoliberal economics. One flaw concerns the growth model. A second flaw concerns the model of global economic engagement that created a triple economic hemorrhage of spending on imports, manufacturing job losses, and off-shoring of investment. The new growth model hollowed out the economy and relied on growing debt and asset price inflation. As the process deepened the economy needed ever larger bubbles to grow. Financial deregulation and excess kept the model going longer than expected, but it meant the economy experienced a financial crash and deeper collapse when the contradictions finally surfaced. The United States needs a new economic paradigm and a new growth model, but as yet this challenge has received little attention from policymakers or economists.     

Time-varying transmission efficiency of China’s monetary policy

This paper tries to investigate the time-varying characteristics of China’s monetary policy transmission from the impulse response evidence of both open-economy DSGE model and TVP-VAR model. We find that the transmission efficiency of price-based monetary policy has significantly improved over the sample period, while quantity-based monetary policy is weakening. The resume of exchange reform in 2010 also strengthens the exchange rate channel especially in terms of price-based monetary policy. Combining with the evidence from DSGE model underlines the importance of further interest rate liberalization and price-based monetary policy Taylor rule should also consider the exchange rate stability.     

The BRICS’s Bank,Institutional Framework,and Other Current Limitations

Abstract:

Based on Polanyi’s concepts of embeddedness, disembeddedness, and the double movement, the aim of this article is to show that the new development bank (NDB) established by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (grouped as BRICS) lacks an institutional context to spur growth and development, similar to the growth that occurred during the Bretton Woods era. First, I examine some of the BRICS’s strengths, such as growth rates, share of world GDP (gross domestic product), and the level international reserves as a percent of the world total. Second, I outline the BRICS’s and other Third World countries’ need for financing. I maintain that the main flaw in the BRICS’s bank is that it follows market rationality in obtaining and granting resources, and that China (the most important member of the BRICS) is still dependent on the G7’s economies. Finally, I remark that as long as the NDB follows market fundamentals, it will be less likely to achieve growth.     

Did firm age,experience, and access to finance count? SME performance after the global financial crisis

This paper examines the relationships between firm age and entrepreneurs experience on SME performance after the 2008/09 global financial crisis. We find that in general the crisis had a long-lasting scarring effect on the SME sector, but there is evidence of some recovery in performance. Interestingly, the well-established, and negative, firm age-growth relationship still holds, but entrepreneurial experience did not have any substantive effects on small business performance. Our findings suggest that the severity of the crisis meant that previous entrepreneur experiences had little value in this unique and uncertain environment. However, young firms still accounted for a disproportionately high share of growth, especially among the fastest growing firms.     

China’s fiscal stimulus package for the current international crisis: What does 1996–2006 tell us?

This paper uses Bi-Directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G multipliers for China’s 31 provinces between 1996 and 2006 (GPP = Gross Provincial Product and G = government spending in the province). In order to account for the influence of omitted variables, BD-RTPLS produces a separate ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G estimate for every observation in the data set. I find that ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G were highest in 1996 while China was drastically cutting government spending to curb inflation, were lowest in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis, slowly rose between 1998 and 2004, and then declined some in 2005 and 2006 when the Chinese yuan was slowly appreciating.     

The debt brake: business cycle and welfare consequences of Germany’s new fiscal policy rule

In a New Keynesian DSGE model with non-Ricardian consumers, we show that automatic stabilization according to a countercyclical spending rule following the idea of the debt brake is well suited both to steer the economy and in terms of welfare. In particular, the adjustment account set up to record public deficits and surpluses serves well to keep the level of government debt stable. However, it is essential to design its feedback to government spending correctly, where discretionary lapses should be corrected faster than lapses due to estimation errors.     

The impact of monetary policy on financial markets in small open economies: More or less effective during the global financial crisis?

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock prices of eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. On average across these countries in the full sample, a one percentage point surprise rise in official interest rates leads to a 1% appreciation of the exchange rate and a 0.5–1% fall in stock prices, with somewhat stronger effects in OECD countries than non-OECD countries (though differences are sometimes not significant). We find little robust evidence of a change in the effect of monetary policy surprises during the recent financial crisis.     

Understanding China’s monetary policy: an institutional perspective

Given China’s status as a large transitional economy, analysing the country’s monetary policy requires an understanding of the institutional and policy environment within which monetary policy operates. As China’s monetary policy has multiple objectives and the central bank is subordinate to the State Council in monetary policy decisions, addressing deep-rooted structural issues and improving governance and institutions are essential so that monetary policy can be more focused and effective. Confronted with the Impossible Trinity dilemma, China faces daunting challenges in tackling the inevitable policy choice between monetary autonomy and exchange rate control as its capital account increasingly liberalises. This article analyses China’s unique and evolving monetary policy framework from an institutional perspective and evaluates the challenges to monetary management and reforms. Relevant policy implications for monetary policy implementation are also discussed.     

Exchange rate disconnect and financial constraints —evidence from Chinese firms

One puzzling observation in international economics is the lack of response of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. Employing the most comprehensive export data from China for the 2000–2007 period, we provide sector- and firm-level evidence that the response of exports to exchange rate movements depends crucially on the level of financial constraints. For sectors with large financial constraints, the response is small, whereas, for less financially constrained sectors, the response can be much larger, with the estimated elasticity decreasing with the sector's degree of financial constraints. At the firm-level, financial constraints affect the firm's response to exchange rate shocks at both the intensive and the extensive margins. At the intensive margin, financial constraints dampen the effect of exchange rate on exports by restricting the firm's export value to the existing destination market; at the extensive margin, financial constraints restrict the number of firms participating in exporting, the number of firm-product pairs being exported, and the probability of entering a new destination market.     

Gender imbalance in China’s marriage migration: Quantitative evidence and policy implications

While gender-imbalanced marriage migration across borders and regions and its socioeconomic impacts have been widely reported in developing nations, this paper reports empirical findings based on data from China since 1980. China’s international marriages were characterized with more than 95% of brides from mainland China in the 1980s but the proportion has dropped gradually to around 60% in recent years. Analysis of China’s census data and a panel dataset from Shanghai suggests that proportionally more women migrated from relatively less-developed to more-developed regions through marriage and the variation in income across regions is the key factor behind the migration pattern. China’s gender-imbalanced marriage migration has caused problems such as male marriage squeeze in poor rural areas and “leftover women” in large cities like Shanghai. Policies for poverty reduction and more balanced economic development across regions are recommended for reducing such gender imbalance and the associated socioeconomic problems.     

China’s direct investment in the European Union: challenges and policy responses

The dramatic rise of Chinese direct investment into the European Union (EU) has sparked a debate about the control that China may be seeking to take over European economies. Quite naturally, these concerns have led to repeated calls that action be taken to slow down, if not to halt entirely, this growing trend. The objective of the article is to shed light on this debate. Following a thorough analysis of Chinese direct investment in the EU, this article suggests that the challenges posed by these inflows are widely overblown. Despite this, the article concludes that it is necessary to have a systematic approach to regulating inbound foreign investment (including from China) in the EU. Such an approach may help guard against the risk of a protectionist drift inside the EU, as well as the possibility that some investors may one day pose a threat to national security. This article concludes that although the current fragmented regulatory approach is unsatisfactory, because of the difficulties associated with a unified EU-wide review process, the most realistic option is to promote a more systematic and coordinated use of existing mechanisms such as competition policy. Also, pushing for the negotiation of a China–EU BIT is certainly a promising avenue to enhance the EU’s bargaining leverage based on the principle of positive reciprocity.     

China’s Reform: History,Logic and Future

This paper is a brief introduction of the core content and basic concepts of the book China’s Reform: History, Logic and Future, and gives answers to questions such as why China’s reform and opening-up policy has achieved great success, why the catch-up mode, extensive and extractive development mode China adopted in the past three decades are no longer sustainable and what China’s market-oriented reforms should aim to achieve in the next stage so that readers can have a profound understanding of China’s reform. Planning ahead, from the perspective of sustainable economic development, China badly needs to transform from factor-driven growth to efficiency-driven and innovation-driven growth, the key to which is to further encourage the liberalization of thought, promote reform and opening-up, unswervingly follow the path of economic liberalization, marketization and privatization, to establish an inclusive modern market system, to allow the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation and the private economy to play a dominant role in the national economy. The market-oriented reform is a complicated project and China is faced with at least three different aspects of reform in some key areas—the main body of private economy, the liberalization of financial market and the marketization of land. Meanwhile, China needs to efficiently balance three elements of good governance, that is, the rule of law, execution and democratic supervision, so as to facilitate the modernization of state governance system and governance capability.