德国二板市场:法兰克福新市场

一、富有活力的德国"新市场" 1997年3月10日,德国交易所股份公司设立的证券主板市场之外的二板市场--"新市场"正式启动."新市场"启动后,显示出了强大的生命力,并日益成为德国证券业的支柱之一.金融分析家认为,由于越来越多的新经济类企业在此挂牌上市,使新市场不断膨胀.虽然人们目前还不能确定它未来的地位是否替代主板市场--由30个德国最大企业组成的德国达克斯市场,但它与达克斯并驾齐驱已日趋明显,而达克斯也在不断地吸收新市场上成长最快的企业.     

Deregulation, Integration, and Market Structure in European Banking

This paper analyzes the impact of deregulation and market integration policies on the structure of European banking markets. It argues that whether European integration will lead to large increases in EU-wide concentration will depend on the extent to which competition in banking is based on endogenous sunk costs or, alternatively, on variable costs and exogenous sunk costs. The paper also highlights the role of own funds as a source of endogenous increasing returns. Finally, it proposes an empirical test of the dominant form of competition. This procedure is applied to data for 11 EU countries during the period 1981–1995. J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1999, 13(4), pp. 372–396. IESE (International Graduate School of Management), University of Navarra, Av. Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, Spain. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20, G21.     

Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use logit models for the period 1991–2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue-based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful. JEL no. C25, E62, H62     

核心企业、证券市场与产业成长的机制分析

企业是由一系列要素组合而成的经济单位,较之一般的企业,核心企业 具有更有效的生阈经营能力,而且具有更强的资本动员能力。本论文将探讨核心企业在产业成长的中的作用,以及以核心企业的成长为开端然后带动整个产业发展的证券融资机制,探讨具有竞争优势的核心企业与低较低成本的融资方式结合对产业成长所起的作用。     

Money,Velocity, and the Stock Market

This paper provides a study of the relationship between money growth variability, velocity, and the stock market, using recent advances in financial econometrics. We estimate a trivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, BEKK model to quantify the effects of financial market and money supply instability. We investigate the robustness of the results to different definitions of money using monthly Divisia indices for the United States from the Center for Financial Stability (CFS). Empirical evidence supports significance of financial market and money supply volatility, and we conclude that Friedman’s money supply volatility hypothesis is alive and well.     

股市政策与股市波动

中国股票市场是一个“政策市”，政府经常有意识地运用一些政策手段调控股市的波动。但是，本文建立的理论模型证明，由于股市政策内生的动态不一致性，政府运用股市政策不但不能稳定股市，反而会造成和加剧股市的波。而来自上海证券市场的经济实证分析也证明了这一点。     

从美国蓝筹股可借鉴的?

一位投资分析家写道:"也许每天清晨您都要穿上Champion牌的毛衣,戴上Nike护腕,听着Sony随身听出去晨跑;也许你的GE牌冰箱或DELL计算机贴着MMM的即时贴,提醒你将Rubbermaid垃圾罐带走或在回家的路上去看一下B1ockbuster录像;也许你曾经一边开着Ford Explorer,一边用Motorola电话通过AT＆T系统打电话;也许你曾经向爆米花中加些Moron食盐,拿着百事可乐走进电影院去看Disney的动画片……你的钱都每天会构成这些蓝筹股公司利润的一部分."     

投资市场的投机性及其根源

中国资本市场的投机性浓厚，已成为大多数人的共识，投机性浓厚，不仅表现为股市的市赢率一般高达60%，比发达国家股市的市赢率（一般在20%-25%）高得出奇；而且表现为股票的换手（买卖）率也高得出奇；据统计，1996年美国纽约股票市场的换手率是52%，东京是27%，伦敦是58%，香港是54%，韩国是91%，泰国是30%，而我国上海是591%，深圳是902%，股票换手率高，表明股民大多想从股票买卖的价格变动中获利，而不想或不相信股票可以分红，或认为股票分红不如从股票价格变动中获利来得大。     

我国A股市场中的波动性之谜与市场情绪

本文使用Campbell和Shiller(1988)基于对数线性RVF的VAR非线性Wald检验方法对我国A股1994-2009期间的数据进行实证研究,结果表明样本期间我国A股股价相对其基础价值表现出"过度波动"的迹象,无论是常数超额收益率模型还是V-CAPM模型都无法对此进行解释。通过进一步定义市场情绪指数来分析这种"波动性之谜"现象的原因,结果发现市场情绪和股市"过度波动"之间存在相互作用机制,市场情绪能够对股价波动提供额外的解释。     

Trade in Parts and Components and the Industrial Geography of Central and Eastern European Countries

Growing inflows of FDI and the increasing integration of domestic firms into International Production Networks (IPNs) set up by EU-15 partners have yielded a rise in trade in parts and components for Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). As a consequence, new patterns of localization of industrial activities have been observed in the region since the mid-1990s. In this paper, I propose a comprehensive model of trade and production which tries to explain cross-country variations of sectoral output by comparative advantages (Ricardo, Heckscher–Ohlin) and agglomeration forces (home market effect, market potential), with a focus on the role played by trade in middle products. The empirical implementation reveals that the higher is the involvement in IPNs the larger is the domestic share of regional output. Comparative advantages are a crucial determinant of localization as opposed to agglomeration forces. I argue that these results can be interpreted as an assessment of the predictive power of two alternative trade theories. JEL no.  F10, F12, F14, F15     

中国股票市场、基金市场及国债市场间的协整关系研究

文章以上证综合指数、上证基金指数和上证国债指数为研究对象，通过协整检验、误差修正模型和因果关系检验考察中国股票市场、基金市场和国债市场在股市由下跌向上扬过渡行情中的长期均衡关系及短期波动的影响，研究中国股票市场、基金市场和国债市场的运行相关性特征。     

中国-中东欧国家地方领导人会议在渝举行

共享机遇,携手前行;合作发展,互利共赢。7月3日上午,中国-中东欧国家地方领导人会议在重庆国际会展中心开幕。中共中央政治局委员、重庆市委书记孙政才,市委副书记、市长黄奇帆,外交部副部长、中国-中东欧国家合作秘书处秘书长宋涛,马其顿总理格鲁埃夫斯基,罗马尼亚总理蓬塔以及来自中国和中东欧16国的近70个省市代表等出席开幕式。     

The Stock Market,Monetary Policy,and Economic Development

In this article, we examine the impact of financial market development on the level of economic development. In particular, we explore this issue in a setting where individuals face idiosyncratic risk. Incomplete information also provides a transaction role for money so that monetary policy can be studied. While an active banking sector promotes risk sharing, we incorporate a market for equity by allowing individuals to trade capital across generations. In this manner, each asset and financial market in our model fulfills a distinct economic function. Consistent with recent empirical work, we find that the impact of access to a stock market may be indeterminate—the economy may respond with significant gains in capital accumulation and risk sharing, or there may be relatively little impact. We also show that the effects of monetary policy vary across the level of financial development. In economies with small stock markets, increasing the amount of liquidity will cause capital accumulation to decline. By comparison, in advanced economies, capital accumulation improves.     

中东欧国家金融银行业开放过程中的潜在风险分析

20世纪90年代以来,中东欧国家先后实施了金融银行业对外开放政策。金融开放为中东欧国家金融银行业注入了活力,但同时也蕴含着很多问题和潜在风险,在全球金融危机的冲击下,这些问题和潜在风险已影响到这些国家的金融市场和银行体系的稳定。本文着重从过高的外币融资、过快增长的家庭信贷、过度依赖的间接融资,以及外资银行大量进入挤占内资银行市场份额等4个方面分析这些国家金融银行业潜在风险的形成过程。     

证券市场与高新技术产业化

一、充分发挥证券市场功能,支持高新技术产业发展 　　党中央、国务院在全国科技创新大会上作出决定,要加强技术创新,发展高科技,实现产业化。党的十五届五中全会指出,体制创新是科技创新的保证;要建立风险投资机制,发展资本市场,形成有利于高技术企业和新经济增长的投融资环境,支持高新技术产业化。证券市场作为社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分,应该而且能够在贯彻中央决定,加强技术创新,支持高新技术产业发展方面发挥更大的作用。 　　我国证券市场建立至今,尽管只有 10年的历史,但为高技术的开发和产业化提供了长期直接融…     

国内外股指期货与股票指数之间的关联性研究——基于日经225指数期现货市场的实证分析

基于Johansen协整分析、向量误差修正模型(VECM)以及VECM基础上的Granger长短期因果检验与方差分解等方法对日经股指的国内外期货市场与现货市场三者整体关联性与相互作用关系问题进行了深入的研究。研究发现:三个市场一阶非平稳的的时间序列数据构成了协整关系,即三者具备了关联性与长期均衡关系,股指期货对股指具有良好的价格发现功能。股指期货在长期是股指价格变化的原因,但是股指运行风险对股指期货起到十分重大影响。这些结论对我国即将推出的股指期货有着十分重要的启示。     

EMU, EU, Market Integration and Consumption Smoothing

By taking a new approach to the study of the impact of EMU on consumption smoothing, centering on consumption volatility and therefore on smoothing more directly, we find that even though EMU tends to smooth consumption, it is not through cross-country property and claims. Rather it comes through the promotion of the tradability of goods, capital in particular: specifically, the encouragement of price competition, contestable home markets, ability to borrow and buy insurance at home, and the harmonization of regulations. Some of the consumption smoothing may also depend on EU membership rather than EMU as such but EMU adds to it. As a fundamental part of the analysis, the paper uses a new index of currency union which focuses on the ratio of trade with other countries sharing the same currency relative to total foreign trade.     

转型国家外国直接投资的宏观经济效应──关于俄罗斯、中东欧八国和中国的比较

本文通过对俄罗斯、中东欧八国以及中国的比较,对转型国家FDI宏观经济效应的制度因素加以分析。在此基础上,进一步建立转型国家有FDI流入的IS/LM/BP模型,运用一般均衡分析的方法对转型国家FDI的宏观经济效应进行研究。论文指出,无论是在固定汇率下还是在浮动汇率下,FDI流入促进转型国家收入的增长都是确定的。作为转型国家的一个特例,中国兼具转型经济国家、新兴市场经济国家和发展中国家三种特征,其FDI宏观经济效应的传导机制具有一定的特殊性。中国在现行汇率体制下FDI流入的国民收入效应仍然是确定的。但是,与俄罗斯、中东欧八国等转型国家相比,FDI促进中国国民收入的提高相对较少。