市场化、南北差距及其根源——基于作物性质的政治经济学考察

中国经济发展的区域差异及其根源，一直备受学界关注。其中，市场化发育的区域差异是解释经济发展差距的重要线索。然而，市场发育区域差异的生成根源却未能得到恰当的处理与阐释。文章试图从作物性质的政治经济学维度，构建"政府管制-作物性质-逃避策略"的逻辑框架，探讨区域经济发展差距背后市场发育的决定机理。文章认为，如果将市场化进程视为政府管制放松的过程，那么管制放松就可以区分为主动管制放松与被动管制放松。由可实施逃避策略所决定的被动管制放松及其所触发的市场化进程往往具有不可逆性。由此，逃避策略选择的区域差异性，将导致区域市场化发育程度的不同进而带来经济增长的差异。基于全国1997-2016年面板数据的实证分析表明：由"无政府主义"的作物种植所表达的管制逃避策略，能够显著促进市场化的发育程度；作物种植差异及其所蕴含的种植文化特性，共同决定了南北市场化差异；源于2013年全面开展的农地确权，进一步强化"南强北弱"的管制逃避，导致南北经济差异不断扩大。本研究有助于为中国区域经济增长差异提供新的洞见，从而为缓解不平衡不充分发展问题并推进中国区域经济的协调发展提供政策依据。     

普京新政与俄罗斯经济政策走向

第三次当选总统的普京将立足于新型工业化道路,通过产业政策主导经济发展,大型国有企业与金融机构仍将成为关键性力量,国家垄断资本主义政策仍将延续,国有制将长期存在于自然垄断、军事工业与原材料产业。同时,普京也将试图通过减少管制和私有化来降低风险。再工业化定位、消除财政赤字的压力、欧美债务危机的警示、中产阶级的快速崛起,决定了普京政府的民粹主义色彩将不得不有所淡化,政策重点将主要围绕培育人力资本与发展高科技产业而展开。经济政策能否推动创新发展与结构转型,取决于一系列条件,其中最为重要的,是政治制度能否顺利实现转型。     

Structural and investment policy as an instrument for modernizing the Russian economy

The article considers the current situation of the structural and technological imbalance in the Russian economy, as well as the nonproportional distribution of the factors of production and financial resources. The need for structural reforms in industrial production and income generation has been shown. The author discusses priorities of structural and investment policy, direction of new technological breakthrough in the long-term national strategy of entering international technological space. Special features of development of key economic sectors have been analyzed. In conclusion, quantitative estimates of economic dynamics in the long term up to 2035 have been given, which are predetermined by implementation of planned measures of structural and investment policy that provides potential for GDP growth until 2035 at a rate of no less than 3.5% on average per year.     

Aviation Policy: Past and Present

Airline deregulation has been a symbol of the trend toward less expansive government over the past quarter century. The move from economic regulation to deregulation has delivered on its efficiency promises. There have been significant benefits to consumers in terms of lower prices and more convenient schedules. However, airline competition, particularly at hub airports, remains imperfect. The nature of these imperfections is explained better by models of oligopolistic behavior than by the contestability theory. Paradoxically for this industry, the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, has ushered in an expanded role of government in aviation policy. This expanded role does not reinstate government intervention in airline economic decisions. Rather, it provides financial stabilization (bailout and loan guarantees) of the industry in the short run and long-term structural change in aviation security.     

我国纺织业经营模式的演进与整合

纺织业经营模式,实质上是纺织企业整合和利用内外部资源、实现企业目标的方式。我国纺织业从传统计划经济体系下的产品生产模式,经历了改革开放以来的商品经营模式,目前又在实践虚拟经营、资本经营、文化经营等不同经营模式。为应对当今激烈的竞争和诸多发展矛盾,纺织企业应该对这些经营模式进行有效地整合,以进一步增强行业的竞争力。     

Industrial policy and resource allocation: implications on China's participation in globalization

China's industrial policy regime has played an important role in the country's economic development and participation in the world economy. This paper examines the effect of this regime on cross-industry resource allocation in three aspects: incentives, openness of trade and investment, and allocative efficiency. The results indicate effectiveness of industrial policy in offering incentives and controlling market openness in line with the planned priority. Evidence in cross-industry resource allocation, however, suggests significant efficiency gains are yet to be obtained from further participation in globalization.     

Trading Land Development Rights under a Planned Land Use System： The ＂Zhejiang Model＂

China＇ s state planned land use system, including regulations such as setting planned quotas for land use, basic cropland preservation, and pursuing a balance between the conversion of arable land into non-agricultural use and the supplement of new agricultural land, has substantially constrained the economic growth of industrial provinces in China. This article explores the innovative reforms adopted by Zhejiang Province through land development rights （LDR） transfer within a locality and LDR trading across localities. We argue that there is a ＂Zhejiang model of LDR transferring and trading,＂ which, we believe, has significant implications not only for fostering an efficiency-enhancing market for land development rights and agricultural land preservation, but also for optimal use of land and a more balanced regional development. One important policy issue relating to China＇s rural land system is that under China＇ s land requisition system, farmers are usually under compensated for urban land-taking.     

Deregulation or Governmental Intervention？ A Counterfactual Perspective on China＇s Electricity Market Reform

The long-standing severe power shortage in China has provoked much debate on whether China should further promote market-oriented electricity reform. The present paper addresses this issue by analyzing the impacts of deregulation of the electricity generation sector and retailing activities on other sectors, the macroeconomy and electricity users. A countetfactual scenario analysis is used based on a simplified computable general equilibrium framework. We find that deregulation can significantly improve the efficiency of electricity production, increase employment and enhance household welfare. These nontrivial findings can help to resolve many controversies about governmental intervention during China＇s economic transition. Our findings have two implications relating to policy feasibility and applicability; that is, competition in the electricity retail market shouM be phased in, and the necessary arrangements for unemployment in incumbent firms shouM be considered.     

The Impact of APROC on Taiwan's Economy: A CGEAnalysis of Deregulation

The Taiwan Government defines the Asia-Pacific Regional Operations Center (APROC) project as designed 'to transform Taiwan into a regional economic center through overall liberalization and internationalization'. From this definition and the targets of APROC as set by the Taiwan Government, it is not difficult to see that deregulation is one of the basic means of achieving its goals. In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the possible effects of this deregulation. The effects of deregulation on the economy go through four channels in the model: (i) deregulation liberalizes the market; (ii) deregulation moderates factor market distortion; (iii) deregulation attracts foreign investment, speeds up capital accumulation and enlarges capital stock in Taiwan; and (iv) deregulation attracts foreign investment and hence improves technology. Six simulations are conducted in this paper. All of the simulations show positive effects on Taiwan's economy as a whole, while for individual sectors the effects are various.     

The Future of Market Regulation

Market regulation is accomplished both by competition and by external government agencies, and the trend is toward greater reliance on competition. Economists have fostered this trend and have even invented markets to help overcome some externality problems. They have contributed to a steady improvement in antitrust policy, which currently reflects economic knowledge well. They diagnosed and demonstrated problems with external regulation of the airline industry and gave assurance that regulation by competition could work in its place. Success there led not only to deregulation of airlines but also deregulation of railroads, trucks, buses, and, in some ways, natural gas pipelines. Two other industries, telecommunications and electricity, are now following very ambitious paths toward less external regulation and greater dependence on competition. The Internet raises new issues, but there also, competition will play an important regulatory role.     

中国经济转型时期经济增长与就业增长的探析

从1978年的改革开放开始,中国进入新一轮经济转型。新一轮经济转型首先从经济体制改革出发,逐步实现了从计划到市场的转变,当然其中还包括经济结构的调整等一系列经济与社会的变革。本文揭示了经济转型时期高增长、低就业的客观现实,分析了这一现象产生的原因,并提出了解决高增长、低就业的一些政策建议。     

经济变化对刑事政策的引导机制研究

刑事政策作为指导和调控刑事立法和刑事司法的观念性产物,在发展市场经济、建设和谐社会的当代中国,以刑法所不具有的灵活性而越来越受到学界的关注。刑事政策的制定和实施受到各方面因素的影响,而在诸因素中,经济因素是最具有决定性的。经济变化的快慢以及经济建设环境的好坏,对刑事政策的发展都具有关键性的引导作用。刑事政策的目的完结有赖于经济的发展和引导功能的发挥。探讨经济变化与刑事政策的关系,对于构筑符合时代要求的刑事政策体系,具有现实意义。     

A production function approach for analyzing the finance-growth nexus: The evidence from taiwan

This paper proposes a framework for analyzing the nexus between financial development and economic growth in terms of spillover effects. It is based on the production function theory and consists of two versions of the two-sector model. The framework is applied as a prototype to the case of Taiwan’s use of deflated annual data for 1961–1995. The empirical results show that the spillover effects of the financial-leading version dominate those of the real-fostering version in the case studied. Although these spillover series are significantly influenced by the financial development variables, they hardly reveal the structural changes caused by the events of financial deregulation.     

The role for competition policy in economic development: the South African experience

Competition policy is part of the new international orthodoxy in economic policy and, at the same time, was viewed in South Africa as a crucial element of economic transformation. This article reviews the role of competition policy in economic development and the experiences of developing countries such as Brazil and South Korea. It then assesses the effects of competition policy in South Africa after 1994, with the main focus being on the performance of the new competition institutions established in 1999. The case of the steel industry is used to assess the approach and impact of the institutions in a concentrated sector that has simultaneously undergone processes of liberalisation and domestic consolidation.     

History of industrial decentralization in South Africa (Part I): The regional concentration of industry and the historical basis of the policy∗

This research deals broadly with the history and development of industrial decentralization in South Africa. It provides a basic analysis of a number of inseparable historic, political and economic issues, and is presented in two parts. This first part begins by tracing the economic forces that generated current concentrated patterns of economic activity in South Africa, and goes on to review the origins of the industrial decentralization policy. It concludes that despite a relatively rigid natural regional economic structure that developed historically, and despite the continued presence of the economic forces that brought this structure about, the government commenced with a policy of industrial decentralization in 1960. The second part of the research firstly assesses the development of the policy in an attempt to indicate reasons for major changes, and secondly discusses the impact of the policy with reference to current evidence. It concludes that the industrial decentralization policy may have had serious economic consequences to date, but may nevertheless have a continued role to play in the ongoing political development of the country. The approach throughout has been to provide a relatively compact chronology of the policy and its antecedents.     

上海合作组织国际连接模型的基本构造及其经济模拟——以新疆为主

本文以凯恩斯需求理论为指导,建立上海合作组织各成员国、观察员国以及新疆和内地封闭式宏观经济模型,再以"贸易连接方式"将各宏观经济主体连为一体,建立上合组织国际连接计量经济模型,并利用该模型对各类宏观经济政策(包括财政政策、西部大开发政策、经济援助政策)的经济效果进行实证研究。通过对比分析得知,中国、哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯的财政政策均对新疆产生较大的正面影响,而且这些财政政策对产业发展程度较高的国家和地区更具有经济意义。与此同时,任何一种经济援助政策最终均演变为SCO整体的援助政策。     

Deposit market deregulation,implicit deposit rates,and monetary policy

Conclusion Previous analyses of the economic effects of deposit market deregulation generally have treated the gradual elimination of deposit rate ceilings and the effective removal of barriers to bank competition for deposits as separate issues. The key implication of the analysis utilized in this paper is that there are important interactions between these two forms of deposit market deregulation and their ultimate effects on market behavior and outcomes. One aspect of this interaction concerns the payment of implicit interest on deposit balances. Although implicit interest payments usually are viewed as a response to the imposition of ceilings on explicit deposit rates, the amount of implicit interest paid by banks in fact depends crucially upon the amount of monopoly power available to banks as a result of entry restrictions. Competition in deposit markets drives the implicit interest rate to 0 even if the explicit deposit rate is regulated, and the existence of imperfect competition in deposit markets makes the payment of positive implicit deposit interest a theoretical possibility even if the explicit deposit rate ceiling is removed.At a macroeconomic level, increased bank competition enhances the monetary and interest rate impacts of gradual relaxations of a binding deposit rate ceiling. If a ceiling on the explicit deposit rate is present, increased bank rivalry for deposits resulting from deregulation reduces monetary control whether the Fed targets a market interest rate or a reserve aggregate. When there is no ceiling on the explicit deposit rate, increased bank competition has ambiguous implications for monetary policy.The present trend in regulatory policy is pushing the U.S. financial system toward an environment in which explicit deposit rates are flexible, market determined variables and interbank rivalry for deposit funds is much more competitive. The thoretical analysis of this paper indicates that the likely results of these simultaneous developments are the demise of implicit deposit interest (marginal cost pricing of transactions services) and potential complications for the c onduct of monetary policy under either a reserve-oriented operating procedure or a procedure in which the Fed targets a market interest rate. However, the directions and magnitudes of the net impacts of those forms of deregulation ultimately are empirical issues that cannot be fully resolved.via a theoretical analysis.An earlier version of this paper was circulated by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board's Office of Policy and Economic Research as Invited Research Working Paper No. 59. The author is grateful for comments received from Donald Bisenius, Michael Bradley, Richard Brown, George Kanatas, Kenneth Kopecky, Byungkyu Lee, Randall Merris, Douglas Mitchell, Steve Peterson, Richard Startz, Richard Sweeney, Bill Witte, and participants in the Indiana University Money and Banking Seminar. Views expressed in this paper do not necessarily correspond to those of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Any errors are the author's alone.     

促进循环经济发展的税收政策选择

目前我国经济增长方式依然属于粗放型增长,以牺牲环境、过度消耗资源为代价来发展经济。发展循环经济是我国经济社会发展的一项重大战略,需要通过税收政策的运用和监督管理,调节不同主体的经济利益,促进循环经济发展。现行税制对循环经济的发展还存在种种制约,有必要改进现行税种;开征碳税;对生态工业园区实行倾斜的税收优惠政策。     

促进我国低碳经济发展的财税政策研究

低碳经济已经被看作应对全球气候变化、实现人类可持续发展的必由之路。发展低碳经济并不是否定原有的经济增长模式,而是更加注重经济增长质量和效率,即在能源短缺和全球变暖双重约束下实现经济健康的发展,实现代价最小的经济增长。本文从财税政策调整和配套机制建设支持低碳经济发展入手,对我国低碳经济发展问题进行研究。文章对低碳经济的内涵与发展历程进行简要回顾,并从理论基础上分析财税政策在低碳经济发展中的重要性,在对国外促进低碳经济发展的财税政策经验分析总结的基础上,提出促进我国低碳经济发展的财税政策和配套机制方面的政策建议。     

我国大城市80后生育观的调查研究——基于杭州市的数据

调整人口政策,平衡人口结构对于现阶段全面做好人口工作具有十分重要的意义。文章首先简要的对生育观文献进行了述评,进而在此基础上运用问卷调查的方法分析了杭州市80后的生育观现象,主要表现为杭州市80后都有生儿育女的观念、孩子的数量为一至两个、女性偏好略大于男性、生育的动机主要为满足亲子感情及家庭完整等高层次的精神需要、晚婚晚育普遍等方面。最后上升到更宏观的角度,从整个国家的视角为我国经济发达的大城市的生育政策调整提出政策建议,主要有继续坚持实行计划生育基本国策不动摇;从人们的经济条件和生活质量方面影响人们的生育行为;鼓励大城市推行适度的"开放二胎"政策;完善并加大对计划生育家庭的扶助制度,以期能为政府相关部门建言献策。