Sovereign wealth funds: National security risks in a global free trade environment

The proliferation of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) has resulted in an unstable political, legal, and regulatory environment for this form of foreign direct investment (FDI). This article explains SWF growth over the last half‐century; discusses issues surrounding SWF “transparency” and host‐country national security risk; reviews the legal and regulatory structures governing FDI in major national economies; examines proposed regulatory approaches to structure the FDI environment; and concludes with a discussion of SWF regulatory policy recommendations addressing corporate governance principles, national security restrictions on equity investment, and investment reciprocity, and suggests recommendations for executives considering engaging an SWF investment partner. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sovereign wealth fund governance and national culture

As sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are owned and directed by sovereign governments which often have non-economic strategic motives and concomitant lack of transparency, there is much confusion, suspicion, and concern regarding the purpose of their investments. Strategic or non-economic motives for SWF investments are usually conveyed via respective governing boards of directors. Therefore, there is much need for understanding SWF governance. Using data for 49 large SWFs globally, we document significant and economically important evidence of the impact of national culture on SWF governance. Even when controlling for the quality of respective national governance, we find that poorer SWF governance is associated with the cultural dimensions of power distance, individualism, and most likely masculinity; while better SWF governance is associated with long-term orientation, indulgence and uncertainty avoidance. These results are consistent with what others have noted: good governance means different institutional dynamics in different countries (cultures). We also find that SWF governance is negatively associated with greater investment in foreign assets. Policy makers, capital-market participants, and managers will be interested in these results, as SWFs have become large and important global investors.     

The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets

If sovereign wealth funds act similarly to private investors and thus allocate foreign assets according to market capitalisation rather than liquidity considerations, official portfolios reduce their “bias” towards the major reserve currencies — the US dollar and the euro. As a result, more capital flows “downhill“ from rich to less wealthy economies. In this scenario, the euro area and the United States would be subject to net capital outflows while Japan and the emerging markets would attract net capital inflows. The potential implications of a rebalancing of international capital flows for stock prices, interest rates and exchange rates remain uncertain, however. The authors wish to thank Marcel Fratzscher for excellents comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank.     

Sovereign defaults: Information, investment and credit

Why would a sovereign government, immune from bankruptcy procedures and with few assets that could be seized in the event of a default, ever repay foreign creditors? And, correspondingly, why do foreign creditors lend to sovereigns? This paper finds general conditions under which, even in the absence of sanctions, lending to sovereigns can emerge in a single shot game. Furthermore, it shows that positive borrowing can be sustained both in pooling and separating equilibria. In this way, it makes clear that neither sanctions nor reputation considerations, the two classical explanations, are necessary to enforce repayment. Information revelation is the crucial mechanism for these results. The repayment/default decision is interpreted as a signal used by the government to communicate information to domestic and foreign agents about the fundamentals of the economy. Governments repay to affect agents' expectations about them. A default, through its effect on expectations about fundamentals, can generate a decline in foreign and domestic investment and a credit crunch in domestic credit markets. Governments repay to avoid these costs, but may default (in equilibrium) when hit by a negative shock.     

The role of sovereign wealth funds in global financial intermediation

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have experienced tremendous growth lately. Their combined wealth is currently estimated at $3 trillion, and the International Monetary Fund estimates that they will continue to grow to $10 trillion by 2012. SWFs' recent investments in the United States and Europe have been the focus of media and government scrutiny, given that a number of SWFs are not transparent, and emanate from authoritarian regimes, which are not political allies of the West. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview, along with detailed summary statistics on various aspects of SWFs. We also provide recommendations to facilitate SWFs' role in global financial intermediation. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Belt and road initiative and Chinese firms' outward foreign direct investment

This paper studies the impact of China's “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) on Chinese firms' outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Overall, the BRI positively impacts on Chinese OFDI activities. However, both the direction and the magnitude of this impact depend on the host countries' willingness to participate in the BRI. The BRI promotes more OFDI to developing countries that welcome China's economic engagement and alters the effect of Chinese domestic push factors on its OFDI patterns. In addition, Chinese firms in construction and infrastructure, manufacturing, and trade-related sectors are more responsive to the BRI than firms in other sectors.     

Earnings management and firms' investment behavior: The threshold effect of ROE

This paper, on the basis of a sample of Chinese listed firms, investigates the relationship between both real and accrual-based earnings management activities and firms' capital investment behavior. We apply the threshold model proposed by Hansen (1999) and find firms managing earnings can either over or underinvest, depending upon firms' return on equity (ROE) level. The study results show an inverted relationship between earnings management and firms' investment, which changes from negative to positive with ROE rising beyond certain threshold levels. We also find that the level of ROE affects whether managers use real and accrual manipulations jointly or as substitutes in affecting firms' investment. Our evidence is important because it sheds new light on the relationship between earnings management activities and firms' investment behavior by showing that ROE may act as an important determinant in this relationship. This finding has important implications for policymakers such as the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) as it shows that the regulatory benchmarks they set may have a significant impact on firms' investment behavior.     

Government policy towards entrepreneurial finance: Innovation investment funds

This paper analyses 280 Australian venture capital and private equity funds and their investments in 845 entrepreneurial firms over the period 1982–2005. I focus the analysis on the Innovation Investment Fund (IIF) governmental program, first introduced in 1997. In order to highlight the unique aspects of the IIF, I compare the properties of the Australian IIF program with government venture capital programs in Canada, the UK and the US. The IIF program is unique with a focus on partnering between government–private sector partnerships, as described herein. I analyse the performance of the IIF funds along several dimensions: the propensity to take on risk by investing in early stage and high-tech investments; the propensity to monitor and add value to investees through staging, syndication, and portfolio size per fund manager; and the exit success. For each of these evaluation criteria, I assess the performance of the IIF funds relative to other types of private equity and venture capital funds in Australia. The data analysed show – in both a statistically and economically significant way – that the IIF program has facilitated investment in start-up, early stage and high tech firms as well as the provision of monitoring and value-added advice to investees. Overall, therefore, the data are strongly consistent with the view that the IIF program is fostering the development of the Australian venture capital industry. However, the vast majority of investments have not yet been exited, and the exit performance of IIFs to date has not been statistically different than that of other private funds. Further evaluation of IIF performance and outcomes is warranted when subsequent years of data become available.     

Private equity,Islamic finance,and sovereign wealth funds in the MENA region

The Middle East and North Africa region has experienced a significant amount of activity in the past few years, despite the worldwide economic problems caused by the subprime crisis. A strong influx of petrodollar reserves, sustainable economic growth, limited reliance on leverage, and limited exposure to the global credit markets have kept the region relatively outside the economic mishaps overwhelming a number of economies, especially in the West. Shariah‐compliant, Islamic private equity funds and the use of sovereign wealth funds as sources of private equity in the region are two important evolutionary developments to watch in the next few years. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Capability and need: A framework for understanding why states create sovereign wealth funds

Over the past half‐century, roughly one‐quarter of states in the international system have created sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). As a case of sovereign states investing public wealth mostly in private markets across borders, it is not altogether clear why SWFs have proliferated to this extent. What explains their spread in recent decades? In this paper, I build on a multidisciplinary literature that conceives of SWFs as a type of insurance against external risk and argue that middle economic powers that are highly exposed in global trade and capital markets are the states most likely to establish these institutions. Such states possess both the capability to create an SWF of a size sufficient to insure against risk and the need for the insurance function of a SWF by virtue of their relatively vulnerable position in the global economy. To evaluate my argument, I rely on a data set consisting of all states in the international system from 1950 to 2012 including the 48 SWFs created during that period. I find that middle economic powers with high degrees of trade and capital openness are the states most likely to create SWFs.     

Integrative effects of firms' price and endorsement strategies on consumers' loyalty intention

This research examines the effects of price and brand endorsement that are adopted by firms from a consumer-based viewpoint, and provides practical brand management discussions as a reference for both manufacturer brands and retail store brands. According to the findings, manufacturer brands support high prices and boost those vivid impressions which are helpful in engendering consumer loyalty intention. Without a careful evaluation process, a brand-endorsing strategy may prove detrimental to the manufacturer. Retail store brands follow distinct pricing policies and carry out brand-endorsed strategies. Price/endorsement stimuli influence consumer brand loyalty through the partial mediating effect of brand impression. Manufacturers and retailers could define appropriate price premiums on products with a potential for a manufacturer–retailer brand co-branding as identified by market research, thus increasing the sales of both.     

The determinate effects of competences and decision process factors on firms' internationalisation

This study introduces the current situation of Taiwan's financial industries and presents a literature review including competences, competitive advantage, and key factors under the process of the international investment decision, and internationalisation. The study takes a ‘triangulation’ approach that uses both qualitative and quantitative methods in the exploration of the internationalisation of Taiwan financial markets. Sampling targets of the research consist of managers from banks, security firms, and insurance firms in Taiwan. The findings highlight perceptions of factors such as resources, skill, market knowledge, and international investment experience of firms aiding the internationalisation of Taiwan financial industry. Further, this study reveals that firms' internationalisation relates positively to the firms performance.     

金融危机下主权财富基金投资的风险控制与策略

占有总额约2万亿美元的资产,主权财富基金是近年来最受瞩目的国际投资者.此次美国次贷危机引起全球金融市场剧烈波动,且已由虚拟经济向实体经济蔓延,而以长期投资为主的主权财富基金被认为在一定程度上可对全球动荡的经济起到稳定器的作用,因此,对金融危机下主权财富基金的投资策略的研究具有重大的意义.     

The direct and indirect effects of economic wealth on time to take-off

Our objective is to decompose the influence of the economic wealth on the time to sales take-off into a direct effect and an indirect effect through time to introduction. We use a traditional regression based and an advanced counterfactual framework for our analysis, based on adoption data for four generations of mobile phone from 172 countries. Our study extends the sales take-off literature by better understanding how the commercialization stage (time to introduction) affects the confirmation stage (time to sales take-off) in innovation diffusion while controlling for local market structure, socio-economic, demographic and cultural variables suggested in the literature. We show that economic wealth exerts: a positive direct effect by shortening sales take-off time; a negative indirect effect by shortening time to introduction which tends to extend time to sales take-off. The uncovering of this relationship is achieved by treating time to introduction as a mediating variable, departing from previous studies where it is treated as an exogeneous variable. We further show that the negative indirect effect is diluted in the case of high income countries but not in the case of upper middle-income countries. A sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of our findings. Our findings will help firms develop optimal market entry strategies considering the resources available.     

Impact of professor-directors on Chinese firms' environmental performance

This study investigates the impact of academic professor-directors on Chinese firms' environmental performance. We find that the presence of board directors who are also professors has a positive impact on firms' environmental protection performance, and the result is robust after controlling for the potential endogeneity of professor-directors. This is consistent with the notion that professor board directors are perceived to take more social responsibility and are more likely to advocate for sustainability. However, this positive impact is mitigated significantly by the presence of professor board directors with administrative titles. Moreover, the above results are mainly driven by non-state-owned enterprises, firms with less powerful CEOs, firms with better analyst coverage, and firms with less financial distress. Our study highlights the importance of academic directors for firms' environmental performance.     

我国利用外资形势的变化与跨国公司投资战略的调整

外国直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,简称FDI)是重要的外部资源,也是一种稀缺资源。大力吸引和有效利用FDI,对于提升我国的产业结构,促进社会主义市场经济的形成和发展,推动中国经济与国际经济体系相融合等,都将发挥重要而积极的作用。自2001年起,特别是在加入WTO以后,中国又迎来了新一轮外商对华投资的高潮。2002年,全国合同外商直接投资827.68亿美元,同比增长19.62％;实际使用外商直接投资527.43亿美元,同比增长12.51％,超过美国成为世界     

The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target

This paper analyzes the impact of an unexpected increase in the federal funds rate target on stock returns. The main innovation is the use of a measure of monetary policy shocks based on the ACH-VAR (autoregressive conditional hazard VAR) model for the federal funds rate target. This model allows the analysis of two sources of an unexpected increase in the Fed target. This unexpected increase in the Fed target can be due to an unexpected increase in the federal funds rate target when it is expected to remain constant, or it can be due to an expected decrease in the federal funds rate target that fails to occur. These two events in the ACH-VAR model give rise to completely different information on the expected future federal funds rate. We examine the responses of stock returns for both S&P 500 stock returns and stock returns of portfolio sizes. We find that stock returns are more responsive to unanticipated increases in the federal funds rate than they are to unrealized expectations of a decrease in the federal funds rate. Our results also indicate that the firms with larger capitalization respond less to the two unanticipated monetary policy shocks.     

Unequal effects of elders’ health problems on wealth depletion across race and ethnicity

We investigate the impact of health on wealth depletion of African American, Hispanic, and non‐Hispanic white elders. Using the data from 4,464 elderly households that participated in both the 1993 Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old and the 1998 Health and Retirement Study, we find that health problems contribute to wealth depletion differently across elders in different racial and ethnic groups. We draw policy implications from the findings regarding ways to help consumers protect their financial security from health shocks in later life.