共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Sari Pekkala 《Applied economics》2013,45(2):211-219
This paper analyses the connection between aggregate economic fluctuations and regional productivity convergence in Finland during the period 1988–95. Markov chain transition matrices and mobility indices were used to examine the regional distribution of productivity. The results indicated that high intra-distribution mobility occurred during booms, when regional convergence potential was also at its highest. Conversely, recession years were characterized by much lower mobility and a more divergent regional pattern. These findings bear important implications in terms of regional policy planning, as it seems that poor regions do not manage to keep up with the rich ones during slumps, whereas regional disparities diminish naturally during boom years. 相似文献
2.
《International Review of Economics & Finance》2002,11(1):57-84
Using a disaggregate survey database, this paper reexamines the issue of the existence of a time-varying risk premia in three foreign exchange markets. Previous research on this topic has utilised a consensus measure of the risk premium, based on the rational expectations assumption, and is not supportive of the existence of such a premium. In contrast, this paper reports compelling evidence in favour of time-varying risk premia for the British pound (BP), German mark (DM), and Japanese yen (JY) exchange rates. In particular, we demonstrate that consensus measures of the risk premium mask the existence of risk because of the importance of heterogeneous expectations. 相似文献
3.
Pamela Labadie 《Economic Theory》1998,12(3):621-648
Summary. Private information and costly state verification often result in credit rationing in models with smooth investment, affecting
both loan size and total investment. The optimal contract is derived in a dynamic stochastic growth model with capital for
two types of models: one with symmetric information and the other with asymmetric information and costly state verification.
When all information is observed costlessly, the equilibrium optimal contract provides complete insurance to risk-averse savers
against aggregate fluctuations. When information is asymmetric and there is costly state verification, the equilibrium optimal
contract provides only partial insurance against aggregate shocks. The extent of insurance is measured by the marginal rate
of transformation of consumption between borrowers and lenders which is closely linked to the user cost of capital. The deadweight
monitoring costs create a wedge between a borrower's cost of capital and a lender's stochastic discount factor, with two results:
(i) fluctuations in the user cost of capital provides a mechanism by which aggregate shocks can be␣propagated; (ii) the distribution
of capital's share of output among borrowers, lenders, and monitoring costs varies even if capital's share is constant. Capital
market frictions not only amplify aggregate fluctuations but also generate cross-sectional fluctuations that may not be observable
in aggregate data.
Received: November 17, 1997; revised version: April 20, 1998 相似文献
4.
The standard RBC model fails to replicate the relationship between aggregate hours worked and average productivity. We propose a DSGE model that incorporates habit formation preferences, capital adjustment costs, and news shocks to solve the puzzle implied in the standard RBC model with only technological shocks. The aggregate labor supply curve is shifted due to the wealth effect caused by the variation of consumption under a news shock. Moreover, capital adjustment costs help amplify the variation of consumption, and thus the movement of the aggregate labor supply curve under the news shock. Also, the aggregate demand curve will be shifted, as it operates in the standard RBC model after the realization of the news shock. As a result of the joint movement of the aggregate labor supply curve and aggregate labor demand curve under the news shock, the model achieves a relationship quite close to the empirically observed relationship. 相似文献
5.
National educational level, final consumption expenditure, average propensity to cigarette consumption (APCC) and cigarette price are adopted to research the regional and national aggregate cigarette demand of China. Under the condition that the effects of anti-smoking education in the Chinese current educational system are not remarkable, the theoretical model shows that cigarette demand will increase with the increase of national educational level. Empirical analysis points out that cigarette demand increases with the increase of educational level. Estimates also suggest that cigarette price, consumption expenditure and APCC will affect cigarette demand significantly, and that there are great differences for cigarette demand by region. 相似文献
6.
Tomomi Miyazaki 《Applied economics letters》2017,24(11):795-799
This article examines the relationship between public investment and regional business cycle fluctuations in Japan. In particular, we focus on the effects of ‘discretionary’ changes in public investment, a portion of investment unrelated to the current state of macroeconomic circumstances. The empirical results show that such portions of public investment amplify regional business cycle fluctuations. 相似文献
7.
There are doubts regarding the empirical benefits of forecast aggregation. Theoretical research clearly supports forecast aggregation but conflicting results exist in the empirical literature. We search the literature for empirical regularities. One important issue often cited is estimation error and papers which are unsupportive of forecast aggregation often have short spans of data. A second empirical regularity is that researchers frequently use a relatively small number of disaggregates. Our work finds that the greatest benefits to aggregation are realised when a large number of disaggregates are used. This is a natural consequence of the theoretical results. A second critical issue in forecast aggregation is model selection. We suggest a simple guide to model choice based on the empirical properties of the data. In this regard, the extent of comovements between the constituent series determines model choice. 相似文献
8.
We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in the U.S. unemployment
rates. We extract the common dynamics amongst unemployment rates disaggregated for 7 age groups. The framework allows analysis
of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of
the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the
common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find that demographic adjustments
can account for a great deal of secular changes in the unemployment rates, particularly the abrupt increase in the 1970s and
1980s and the subsequent decrease in the last 18 years.
First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: June 2001 相似文献
9.
《Ricerche Economiche》1993,47(1):3-30
This paper illustrates how fluctuations in aggregate economic activity can result from many small, independent shocks to individual sectors. The effects of the small independent shocks fail to cancel in the aggregate due to the presence of two non-standard assumptions: local interaction between productive units (linked by supply relationships), and non-convex technology. We also argue that neither feature on its own would suffice. In the case of a simple model, we explicitly calculate the distribution of aggregate activity in the limit of an infinite number of independently disturbed sectors. 相似文献
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This paper investigates the time-varying effects of monetary policy on aggregate, sectoral, and disaggregate inflation in India from 1997 to 2017 using a large dataset of 439 variables. We find that the effectiveness of a contractionary monetary policy in controlling aggregate inflation has improved over time. This improvement in the policy's effectiveness can be attributed to better transmission through credit and asset price channels. In investigating disaggregate inflation, we find that a contractionary monetary policy is more effective in reducing inflation in the manufacturing sector than in the agricultural sector. Further, the sacrifice ratios in all manufacturing sectors have improved over time. However, the commodities prices of some sectors respond positively after a monetary contraction, which demonstrates the presence of a cost channel in the Indian economy. Our findings suggest that the monetary authority in India should have an interest rate rule that incorporates sectoral inflation and reacts to each with different intensity. 相似文献
13.
总供给与总需求均衡状态的实现方式 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
周慧玲 《中南财经政法大学学报》2004,(5):21-24
总供给与总需求均衡状态的实现方式是经济学研究的重要课题.不论是萨伊的供给创造需求,还是凯恩斯需求拉动供给的理论都不能有效解释,为什么我国当前经济运行中出现的有效需求不足和生产能力过剩并存的局面.本文试图从经济运行的结构均衡的实现方式出发,分析经济总量中总供给与总需求均衡实现的路径,并提出实现总供求均衡的对策建议. 相似文献
14.
15.
《Games and Economic Behavior》2005,50(1):3-27
It is shown how one can effectively use microdata in modelling the change over time in an aggregate (e.g. mean consumption expenditure) of a large and heterogeneous population. The starting point of our aggregation analysis is a specification of explanatory variables on the micro-level. Typically, some of these explanatory variables are observable and others are unobservable. Based on certain hypotheses on the evolution over time of the joint distributions across the population of these explanatory variables we derive a decomposition of the change in the aggregate which allows a partial analysis: to isolate and to quantify the effect of a change in the observable explanatory variables. This analysis does not require an explicit treatment of the unobservable variables. 相似文献
16.
This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The study utilizes VAR framework and uses quarterly data of Pakistan from 1976Q1 to 2017Q4. The results showed that after an increase in government expenditures, private consumption and prices take three quarters to increase, while private investment follows the declining trend. Private consumption and interest rate are negatively related with taxes, while private investment and prices are positively related with taxes. Real GDP, private consumption and interest rate respond positively with an increase in developmental expenditure, public consumption and public investment. Private investment is negatively related with development expenditure, public consumption and public investment. An increase in direct tax as well as indirect tax leads to an increase in real GDP, private investment and interest rate, while private consumption takes three to five quarters to responds. Private investment and prices are positively related with non-tax revenue, while real GDP, private consumption and interest rate are negatively related. These results support the Keynesian view that government expenditure and taxes are useful tools to stimulate the economic activity, while crowding-out hypothesis holds in Pakistan as well. An active and efficient role of government is required for macroeconomic stability. 相似文献
17.
Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology are meaningful but distinct concepts. We show that a slightly modified Solow productivity residual measures changes in economic welfare, even when productivity and technology differ because of distortions such as imperfect competition. Our results imply that aggregate data can be used to measure changes in welfare, even when disaggregated data are needed to measure technical change. We then present a general accounting framework that identifies several new non-technological gaps between productivity and technology, gaps reflecting imperfections and frictions in output and factor markets. Empirically, we find that these gaps are important, even though we abstract from variations in factor utilization and estimate only small average sectoral markups. The evidence suggests that the usual focus on one-sector DSGE models misses a rich class of important propagation mechanisms that are present only in multi-sector models. 相似文献
18.
Michel Beine Pauline Bourgeon Jean‐Charles Bricongne 《The Scandinavian journal of economics》2019,121(1):117-152
In this paper, we study the role of short‐run factors such as business cycles or changes in employment rates in explaining international migration flows. First, we derive a model of optimal migration choice predicting that short‐run economic fluctuations trigger migration flows on top of the impact exerted by long‐run factors. Second, we empirically test the magnitude of the effect of these short‐run factors on migration flows. Our results indicate that both aggregate fluctuations and employment rates affect migration flows. Third, we provide evidence that the Schengen Agreement and the euro significantly increased the international mobility of workers between the member countries.uuuü 相似文献
19.
Christian Keuschnigg 《The German Economic Review》2001,2(1):31-55
The paper proposes an intertemporal equilibrium model of vintage capital and monopolistic competition. Reflecting a tradeoff between the number and capacity of new machines, investment may be extensive or intensive. External gains from specialization and rationalization result in distorted investment decisions. The paper compares the effectiveness of a general investment tax credit with a start-up subsidy that shifts the direction of investment towards a more extensive form. An optimal policy of investment promotion is derived. 相似文献