THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF PAY‐AS‐YOU‐GO DEFINED‐CONTRIBUTION PENSION SCHEMES

The paper inquires into notional defined contribution pension schemes, which retain the pay‐as‐you‐go financing method while adopting the award and indexation formulas typical of funded, defined‐contribution systems. It examines the properties of the new arrangement and compares them with those of the traditional defined‐benefit pay‐as‐you‐go schemes.     

Trust and the don't‐want‐to‐complain bias in peer‐to‐peer platform markets

This paper addresses peer‐to‐peer (P2P) digital platform markets, often associated with the “sharing economy” or the “collaborative economy”. Such digital platforms, facilitating new purchasing channels for consumers by matching P2P supply and demand, can be considered new market places challenging the conventional markets. How are P2P platform markets evaluated by the consumers? Based on a comprehensive survey‐data material, five different P2P service markets are considered by peer buyers and the results compared to consumers’ evaluations from similar conventional service markets according to trust, comparability and consumers’ satisfaction with the transactions. Comparability seems to be one advantage for the platform markets, while trust could become a problem. Conditions for trust in P2P platform markets is particularly interesting to study because contrary to conventional markets P2P transactions cannot rely on governmental laws, regulations and security net. This trust problem has been solved by a trust‐generating rate and review system. Our data material, however, distinguishes a mechanism that we have coined as the don't‐want‐to‐complain bias. More precisely, people do not like to complain, hence buyers of P2P services often hesitate to give negative ratings when they are discontent with a service or a supplier. Therefore, positive ratings become overestimated. If consumers recognize this bias, ratings and reviews will lose credibility and no longer be considered trustworthy. Eventually, this may threaten the well‐functioning of P2P markets.     

A Reconsideration of Rent‐to‐Own

Rent‐to‐own agreements (RTO) are traditionally seen as disguised installment contracts imposed on uninformed consumers at usurious interest rates. After the flaws and omissions in these interest rate calculations are addressed, the implied annual percentage rates (APRs) remain extraordinarily high. It is shown that alternatives to RTO, such as layaway and long‐term rental, yield comparable APRs. The appeal of rent‐to‐own is then attributed to its structure that includes an initial pure rental phase of high value to persons in volatile financial and/or personal situations followed by an installment phase. Should these situations be resolved, the consumer exercises an imbedded option to acquire a perhaps otherwise unobtainable installment agreement at a competitive interest rate.     

Value‐at‐Risk bounds with two‐sided dependence information

Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) bounds for aggregated risks have been derived in the literature in settings where, besides the marginal distributions of the individual risk factors, one‐sided bounds for the joint distribution or the copula of the risks are available. In applications, it turns out that these improved standard bounds on VaR tend to be too wide to be relevant for practical applications, especially when the number of risk factors is large or when the dependence restriction is not strong enough. In this paper, we develop a method to compute VaR bounds when besides the marginal distributions of the risk factors, two‐sided dependence information in form of an upper and a lower bound on the copula of the risk factors is available. The method is based on a relaxation of the exact dual bounds that we derive by means of the Monge–Kantorovich transportation duality. In several applications, we illustrate that two‐sided dependence information typically leads to strongly improved bounds on the VaR of aggregations.     

Predicting financial volatility: High‐frequency time‐series forecasts vis‐à‐vis implied volatility

Recent evidence suggests option implied volatilities provide better forecasts of financial volatility than time‐series models based on historical daily returns. In this study both the measurement and the forecasting of financial volatility is improved using high‐frequency data and long memory modeling, the latest proposed method to model volatility. This is the first study to extract results for three separate asset classes, equity, foreign exchange, and commodities. The results for the S&P 500, YEN/USD, and Light, Sweet Crude Oil provide a robust indication that volatility forecasts based on historical intraday returns do provide good volatility forecasts that can compete with and even outperform implied volatility. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:1005–1028, 2004     

A Gender‐Aware Study of Self‐Leadership Strategies among High‐Growth Entrepreneurs

We apply a gender‐aware framework to examine the self‐leadership strategies men and women early stage high‐growth entrepreneurs employ as they develop innovations. Utilizing a matched‐pair sample of early stage entrepreneurs operating firms in high‐technology business incubators, our results suggest that female and male entrepreneurs have significantly different self‐goal‐setting and self‐cueing behaviors. Results also suggest male entrepreneurs who use stronger goal‐setting behaviors increase their intellectual property development to a greater extent than female founders. Further, for female entrepreneurs who use greater self‐cueing, the negative relationship realized with intellectual property development is lower than for male entrepreneurs.     

Borrowing Capacity and Financial Decisions of Low‐to‐Moderate Income First‐Time Homebuyers

This study documents the extent to which first‐time homebuyers seeking a mortgage accurately estimate their borrowing capacity and how this is associated with their decisions regarding mortgage debt and the take‐up of a free offer of financial coaching. We find that consumers who underestimate their nonmortgage debt (31.5% of the sample) also take out larger mortgages relative to income. Consumers who underestimate or overestimate their total debt as well as their monthly debt payments are more likely to accept the offer of financial coaching. Moreover, overconfidence in financial matters reduces the take‐up of financial coaching. These biases in perceived financial status appear to be systematically related to behavior among a group of relatively inexperienced consumers. These findings suggest that efforts to extend homeownership may need to include debiasing mechanisms to help less informed consumers accurately assess their current debt levels and ability to make ongoing mortgage payments.     

Estimation and testing of portfolio Value‐at‐Risk based on L‐comoment matrices

This study employs L‐comoments introduced by Serfling and Xiao (2007) into portfolio Value‐at‐Risk estimation through two models: the Cornish–Fisher expansion (Draper, N. R. & Tierney, D. E., 1973) and modified VaR (Zangari, P., 1996). Backtesting outcomes indicate that modified VaR outperforms and L‐comoments give better estimates of portfolio skewness and excess kurtosis than do classical central moments in modeling heavy‐tailed distributions. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:897–908, 2010     

Message‐to‐person versus person‐to‐message: An alternative way to conceptualize personalized advertising

This study provides an alternative way to conceptualize personalized advertising and discusses when and why nonpersonalized information can be more effective than personalized information in changing people's attitudes and behavioral intentions. Different from the traditional personalization approach in the literature that personalizes a message for an individual, this alternative way of thinking is to personalize an individual for a message. It is argued that an individual can be personalized for a message via priming tactics and it leads to reverse personalization effects where a nonpersonalized message generates stronger persuasion effects than a personalized message. The effects of priming on personalization are moderated by perceived prime credibility and mediated by perceived message relevance.     

ON THE DYBVIG‐INGERSOLL‐ROSS THEOREM

The Dybvig‐Ingersoll‐Ross (DIR) theorem states that, in arbitrage‐free term structure models, long‐term yields and forward rates can never fall. We present a refined version of the DIR theorem, where we identify the reciprocal of the maturity date as the maximal order that long‐term rates at earlier dates can dominate long‐term rates at later dates. The viability assumption imposed on the market model is weaker than those appearing previously in the literature.     

Pricing of moving‐average‐type options with applications

Moving‐average‐type options are complex path‐dependent derivatives whose payoff depends on the moving average of stock prices. This article concentrates on two such options traded in practice: the moving‐average‐lookback option and the moving‐average‐reset option. Both options were issued in Taiwan in 1999, for example. The moving‐average‐lookback option is an option struck at the minimum moving average of the underlying asset's prices. This article presents efficient algorithms for pricing geometric and arithmetic moving‐average‐lookback options. Monte Carlo simulation confirmed that our algorithms converge quickly to the option value. The price difference between geometric averaging and arithmetic averaging is small. Because it takes much less time to price the geometric‐moving‐average version, it serves as a practical approximation to the arithmetic moving‐average version. When applied to the moving‐average‐lookback options traded on Taiwan's stock exchange, our algorithm gave almost the exact issue prices. The numerical delta and gamma of the options revealed subtle behavior and had implications for hedging. The moving‐average‐reset option was struck at a series of decreasing contract‐specified prices on the basis of moving averages. Similar results were obtained for such options with the same methodology. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:415–440, 2003     

TIME‐CONSISTENT AND MARKET‐CONSISTENT EVALUATIONS

We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new market‐consistent evaluation procedure which we call “two‐step market evaluation.” This procedure preserves the structure of standard evaluation techniques and has many other appealing properties. We give a complete axiomatic characterization for two‐step market evaluations. We show further that in a dynamic setting with continuous stock prices every evaluation which is time‐consistent and market‐consistent is a two‐step market evaluation. We also give characterization results and examples in terms of g‐expectations in a Brownian‐Poisson setting.     

Regime‐dependent smile‐adjusted delta hedging

We introduce several regime‐dependent smile‐adjusted deltas and compare their efficiency with the smile‐adjusted deltas that are popular with option traders. Using years of daily option prices, out‐of‐sample hedging performance tests for options of all moneyness and maturities and daily, weekly, or fortnightly rebalancing show that even the simplest regime‐dependent smile‐adjustment consistently outperforms implied BSM delta hedging and local volatility and minimum variance smile‐adjustments. Markov‐switching deltas offer the best performance, with delta‐hedging errors often half the size of implied BSM hedging errors. During volatile markets risk reduction from regime‐dependent delta hedging is much greater than during tranquil periods.     

Productivity and Learning‐by‐exporting: A Firm‐level Analysis of Indian Manufacturing

In this paper, we examine whether firms become productive by learning through exporting. To this end, we estimate the production function using microdata of Indian manufacturing firms operating in the period 1991–2001. In contrast to studies on developed countries, our results provide evidence that Indian manufacturing firms are experiencing a rise in productivity through entering export markets and thus experience the learning effect. We also find that there is a productivity rise prior to exporting. Therefore, our results also support the self‐selection mechanism for exporting.     

Density forecasts of crude‐oil prices using option‐implied and ARCH‐type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude‐oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward‐looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk‐neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude‐oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real‐world risks using either a parametric or a non‐parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non‐parametric adjustments of risk‐neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness‐of‐fit tests and out‐of‐sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non‐parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011     

Self‐similarity in long‐horizon returns

Asset returns incorporate new information via the effects of independent and possibly identically distributed random shocks. They may also incorporate long memory effects related to the concept of self‐similarity. The two approaches are here combined. In addition, methods are proposed for estimating the contribution of each component and evidence supporting the presence of both components in both the physical and risk‐neutral distributions is presented. Furthermore, it is shown that long‐horizon returns may be nonnormal when there is a self‐similar component. The presence of a self‐similar component also questions positive equity biases over the longer term.