State-of-the-art of Russia’s heat supply systems

The paper overviews the contemporary state of Russia’s heat supply systems and fuel consumption within its centralized part, the structure of heat consumption by economic sectors and types of industrial consumers. As shown, the centralized heat supply systems, providing the major part of country’s economy with low temperature heat, have heat losses and accident rate at a critical level. The state of decentralized heat supply systems of low rise buildings is not covered by national statistics at all. A second paper on the prospects and development of Russia’s heat supply systems will be published in a subsequent issue.     

The modern problems of forecasting regional energy consumption (using the example of the Republic of Komi)

The article considers the methodical and information problems of forecasting regional energy consumption, suggests the methods and complex model for forecasting the levels of energy, heat, and fuel consumption in interrelation with the development of both separate types of industries and types of activity and an energy source. The influence is shown of the probabilities of realization of the production prediction and the limits on energy supply on the formation of the prospective levels of electrical and heat energy.     

Problems of residential heat supply in Russia

The paper analyzes the residential heat supply in the country in 2000–2009. Russia’s transition to a market economy has caused a negative heat supply of households receiving heat from district heating (DH) systems, which significantly reduces the population’s living standard. The regional DH systems built under the planned economy do not meet the conditions of today’s realities and must undergo substantial organizational, technical, and technological reorganization for the benefit of the main consumers of heat energy, i.e., the population and social area. Measures for heat supply reorganization are suggested.     

Prospects for hydrogen use in decentralized power and heat supply systems

Possible uses of hydrogen produced from natural gas in fuel cells in decentralized power and heat supply systems are considered. Conditions for the competitiveness of the new technology compared to centralized and decentralized systems based on heat-and-power miniplants with gas-turbine and gas-piston engines are defined. Fuel cell-based systems that use natural gas as fuel are shown to be not energy-saving technologies, although they help reduce the discharges of carbon dioxide and other contaminants to the environment. Large-scale application of fuel cells in decentralized energy-saving systems is only possible if their cost is reduced below $100 per kilowatt.     

高温热泵冷热联供系统的控制与应用

为降低制热成本,解决热泵回收冷凝热生产热水时冷热负荷不平衡问题,设计一种高温热泵冷热联供控制系统.通过控制两组换向装置和水泵运行,优化系统运行方案,实现最佳的热回收分配.经屠宰企业应用的运行参数和经济性分析,在满足工艺热水需求条件下,系统可减少压缩机耗电,降低燃料费用,提升企业利润0.4％,静态投资回收期1.68年,热泵综合性能系数为4.23以上.该系统达到节能减排、替代燃料燃烧制热的效果,具有广泛的应用前景.     

Heat comfort of the population of Russia

Estimated consumption of heat from centralized sources, individual thermal generators, and heating stoves by the population of Russia is obtained in the paper. Segments of households are distinguished according to the type of thermal amenities and described, and the thermal comfort situation is analyzed.     

上海市经济增长与能源结构、产业结构关联状况的评价研究

文章在统计分析2000-2011年上海市能源消耗数据的基础上,以Tapio脱钩弹性指标为手段,研究上海市2001-2011年能源消费结构、产业结构与经济增长的脱钩关系及程度,分析能源消费结构、产业结构与经济增长关联状况的时间演变趋势。结果表明:2001-2011年上海市经济增长与能源消费总量间总体上处于弱脱钩状态;能源消费结构中,煤炭、石油、电力在大多数年份都处于弱脱钩状态,天然气则属于扩张负脱钩状态;产业结构中,第一、三产业都未能较好实现脱钩,第二产业以弱脱钩状态为主。在未来经济发展中,经济发达城市的产业结构和能源消费结构的改善对节能减排至关重要。能源消费除了总量控制外,产业结构的有序演进和能源结构的高效低碳演进是节能减排最基本途径和有效方式。     

我国能源消费与经济增长的关联模型分析

能源是经济安全的一个保障因素.能源的总量不足已经成为中国经济持续增长的瓶颈制约.增加能源总量除了要加大能源开发力度,增加能源消费以外,还有降低能源消耗、提高能源利用率,从而相对增加能源供给这一有效途径.文章利用C-D生产函数构建了一个新的计量经济模型,并通过时间序列数据分析揭示了能源消费与经济增长之间的客观比例关系,并提出了使能源消费增长与经济增长保持合理比例与良性循环的政策建议.     

Integrated energy systems: Challenges,trends, philosophy

The creation of an energy metasystem that combines electrical, heat, cooling, and gas supply systems on an intellectual framework is a manifestation of a new energy paradigm. Integrated intelligent power supply systems combine complexity, intelligence, efficiency, reliability, controllability, flexibility of energy conversion, transmission, storage technologies and assume an active consumer.     

洁净能源在石油上游工业的应用前景分析

中国陆相页岩油和油页岩资源丰富,中低成熟度页岩油和油页岩开发的重要技术手段是原位加热,但能耗大、开采成本高.若采用洁净能源如风能、光能作为能量来源进行加热,可有效克服原位加热技术的缺点.目前中外尚没有洁净能源联合加热开采中低成熟度页岩油或油页岩等非常规油气资源的案例,利用科学经济的手段开发这部分资源,将使中国石油能源的可利用量大幅度增加.回顾风光互补发电系统和太阳能聚热在油气开采领域的应用现状与技术前沿,在此基础上提出风能-太阳能发电加热开采技术和太阳能聚热开采技术,并重点分析两项技术的研究难点与应用前景,为开展洁净能源在中低成熟度页岩油及油页岩开采研究与应用奠定基础,并提供了技术路线.     

低碳策略在油气处理领域的应用研究

在石油和天然气领域实施低碳策略,对提高能源利用率,降低碳排放具有重要的现实意义。文章概括了我国石油和天然气领域的碳排放现状,结合油气处理终端现状,初步探讨了燃气轮机尾气余热利用的思路和方案,阐述了根据油气生产流程的需求和特点进行预热能量转化的路线,在减少高温排放和碳排放的同时,实现了减少天然气消耗、提高天然气利用率、增加燃气轮机发电功率等目的。结果表明,该研究为全面推动低碳策略在油气生产单位的实际应用奠定了基础。     

Labor Supply,Migration, and Long-Term Development

This article analyzes the impact of the supply of skilled and unskilled labor on the growth rate of open economies. Using an expansion-in-varieties framework, the model distinguishes between a long-term equilibrium and a medium-term adjustment path. It is demonstrated that the dynamic effects of labor supply are different in a model with expanding varieties in the consumption sector from those in a model with expanding varieties in the production sector. In addition, the outcome depends on the elasticities of substitution in production as well as the countries' production shares in world goods markets. It is shown that, in general, the supply of unskilled labor is likely to have an unfavorable effect on long-term development.     

Agricultural reconstruction in a consumer society: The Mboza Village project 1

While this paper draws upon research conducted in northern Natal, it has general relevance for rural development debates in South Africa today. The authors argue that it is imperative that agricultural development be located within the context of socio‐economic factors that prescribe relations of consumption and development of labour supply. Agricultural performance and the potential for agricultural development should be assessed within the context of the interrelationship between different spheres of economic exchange as well as the differential management of risk within a narrow range of marginal economic options. Serious attention should be given to the structural causes of rural poverty and the high social and economic costs associated with rural life in South Africa. Such issues are not necessarily addressed in attempts to increase rural productivity through reforming indigenous land tenure systems.     

The development tariff and investment in municipal heat supply systems

For years, investment in municipal housing and public utilities (MHPU) has been pronounced a cure-all for the woes of this sector in Russia. Housing services will certainly attract private investors. This assumption is, however, hardly justified for the debt-ridden monopolistic public utilities, where rates are strictly regulated and investment efficiency is low. Private investors expect to return their money. A federal law adopted at the end of 2004 pointed at an obvious source of return on investment, i.e., the investment component of the tariff turning a payback tariff into a development tariff. In this connection, it is important to find out whether the development tariff can be used to secure an acceptable payback period for investments in heat supply systems when the household solvency is low, if tariff rise entails sharp growth in budgetary expenditures on subsidies for the population, and the current heating tariff often fails to reach even the production cost level.     

我国能源安全存在的三大问题与对策

目前,我国能源安全面临供给安全、价格安全和消费安全三大问题。解决供给安全的关键是对外开辟、对内节约;解决价格安全的关键是适当增加自己的供给,同时加快石油储备建设,增加战略石油储备量;解决消费安全的关键是解决煤污染问题,这同时也可以使供给安全和价格安全更有保障。     

Energy consumption by Russia’s population and service industry in the context of global trends

This paper analyzes energy consumption by population and service industry in developed countries and Russia in 1990–2005. The main global trends in energy consumption by population and service industry are shown. The compliance of Russia’s energy consumption figures to these trends is determined. The results of predictive estimates of the dependence of per capita energy consumption by population and service industry on the level of economic development are presented.     

互联网消费金融对城镇居民消费需求的作用效果研究——基于流动性约束视角的分析

数字普惠金融的发展和互联网技术的广泛应用,改变了传统的消费信贷模式,形成了互联网消费金融这一新的业态。它通过创造新兴的消费金融产品来催生居民消费需求,以新供给创造新需求,再以新需求带动新增长,充分发挥消费对经济的基础性作用,从而助力供给侧改革。以流动性约束作为切入点,先系统分析了互联网消费金融对居民消费的影响机制,再基于2011-2018年面板数据,构建动态面板GMM模型,实证分析了互联网消费金融对居民消费需求的影响以及对不同收入群组的作用效果,结论表明：互联网消费金融缓解了流动性约束,促进了城镇居民各类消费支出增加,改善了城镇居民的消费结构,对居民生存型消费支出和发展享受型消费支出均有显著的正向作用,特别是对流动性供给不足、服务缺失的低收入群体的作用更为显著。     

碳排放约束条件下江苏省经济增长的影响研究

为江苏战略性能源开发供应提供依据,本文运用线性回归理论和灰色关联度分析江苏省煤炭消费总量及其占能源消费量的比重、三次产业煤炭消费量的变动对节能减排、经济增长等指标的影响及运用线性回归理论和协整理论建立误差修正模型为江苏省在节能减排的基础上及碳排放约束下经济发展措施提供合理的建议。     

再议启动农村居民消费

开拓农村消费市场、启动农村居民消费是扩大内需、拉动经济发展的重要一环。文章在介绍农村居民消费现状的基础上,就制约我国农村居民消费发展的因素进行了简要分析,其中包括收入水平偏低、收入增长缓慢、消费环境较差、基础设施落后、消费结构不合理等等,并相应指出了开拓农村消费市场、启动农村居民消费的对策建议,如增加农村居民收入、改善农村消费环境、改善农村市场的产品供应、加快小城镇建设等等。     

Maphephethe rural electrification (photovoltaic) programme: The constraints on the adoption of solar home systems

It has been recognised that off-grid energy technologies are essential if the rural population of South Africa is to be provided with basic electrical supply. This article documents the development process followed during a pilot programme aiming to investigate the introduction of solar (photovoltaic) systems as an alternative means of rural electrification. The community of Maphephethe in KwaZulu-Natal was targeted for the project. This article seeks to share the experiences, both positive and negative, that have been gained since the project commenced in 1996. A model for technology transfer and local capacity-building is proposed and certain issues are highlighted, including the slow dissemination of solar systems and the difficulties of financing in a poor rural community.