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1.
Several approaches to action-oriented technology assessment of aspects of working life have been tried out in Scandinavia over the past 15-20 years. This article gives an overview of the experiences in Scandinavia, with emphasis on a Danish point of view. Five different approaches to action-oriented technology assessment are described, based on an analysis of the social actors involved, the target groups for the technology assessment and the associated social mechanisms. These techniques follow the collective resource approach, the cooperative strategies, expert strategies and alternative technology, legal reform strategies and governmental technology promotion policy. None of the approaches proved to be totally effective on its own. The conclusion is that a new combination of approaches to action-oriented technology assessment and the development of a theoretical basis are needed. 相似文献
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2011年3月11日发生的日本福岛核事故,是继1979年美国三里岛核事故及1986年前苏联切尔诺贝利核事故后第三次重大的核事故.作为核能领域全球唯一的政府间国际组织——国际原子能机构,责无旁贷地采取了一系列应对举措,密切与国际社会的沟通,在检查和提高核能的安全性、强化国际核安全框架、恢复对核安全的信心、稳定核能发展势头等方面,表现出中心和主导作用.本文重点研究和分析了国际原子能机构2011年的科技新举措,特别是围绕日本福岛核事故展开的一系列响应行动,及其在加强核安全检查和评估、构建后福岛时代全球核安全框架、促进世界核能可持续发展等方面的努力. 相似文献
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An assessment of market-based approaches to providing ecosystem services on agricultural lands 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Market-based approaches are increasingly being advocated as tools for achieving the conservation of ecosystem services. We examine the reasons why markets so far appear to have failed to provide an efficient allocation of many ecosystem services, and identify the conditions under which markets deliver efficient resource allocation. We discuss different forms of market-based approaches to ecosystem services and identify the characteristics of services that make them better suited to one or another of these approaches. We find that lack of low-cost measurability and valuation currently precludes efficient allocation of many ecosystem services through market-based approaches. Still, some forms of market-based approaches hold promise for cost-effectively managing some ecosystem services provided by and to agricultural lands. In many cases some form of well-designed government involvement will be required to seek outcomes that protect the public interest. 相似文献
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The first part of this article shows that in actual practice technology assessment (TA) has clearly moved from its basic conception as a set of objective methodologies developed and used by experts, to a standpoint which increasingly recognizes the need to make room for public participation. This has led to a view of controversies as informal processes of TA. The second part of the article argues for a further step, namely to conceive of TA as a social proces taking place in a space largely defined by controversies. Correlatively, it provides some initial elements for an analytical understanding of controvtersies as the ‘limiting factor’ of TA. 相似文献
6.
The first part of this article shows that in actual practice technology assessment (TA) has clearly moved from its basic conception as a set of objective methodologies developed and used by experts, to a standpoint which increasingly recognizes the need to make room for public participation. This has led to a view of controversies as informal processes of TA. The second part of the article argues for a further step, namely to conceive of TA as a social proces taking place in a space largely defined by controversies. Correlatively, it provides some initial elements for an analytical understanding of controvtersies as the 'limiting factor' of TA. 相似文献
7.
The price gap between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil markets has been completely changed in the past several years. The price of WTI was always a little larger than that of Brent for a long time. However, the price of WTI has been surpassed by that of Brent since 2011. The new market circumstances and volatility of oil price require a comprehensive re-estimation of risk. Therefore, this study aims to explore an integrated approach to assess the price risk in the two crude oil markets through the value at risk (VaR) model. The VaR is estimated by the extreme value theory (EVT) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns. 相似文献
8.
Raija Koivisto Author Vitae Nina Wessberg Author VitaeAuthor Vitae Toni Ahlqvist Author VitaeAuthor Vitae Jouko Myllyoja Author VitaeAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2009,76(9):1163-1176
This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools. 相似文献
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François Hetman 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1978,11(4):303-313
Search for some means of social management of technology has become a major concern for science and technology policy in recent years. Social Assessment of Technology (SAT) is considered as a potentially important instrument of this new orientation of policy. The concept of social assessment of technology leads to a reappraisal of the role of science and technology in a contemporary society, both with regard to policy, and to final objectives. It is a new approach to a better informed decision-making. Though it is of interest to all segments of the policy-making process, one would expect that social assessment of technology should be closely linked to technology policy. However, from the institutional point of view, technology has no place of its own. The term “technology” was only recently added to that of science in the relevant national government agencies. This is a purely formal link. To arrive at an operational outline of technology policy, a much deeper understanding of technology and the innovative process in general is still necessary.The lack of an appropriate institutional “niche” makes it particularly difficult to envisage technology assessment studies at an international level. The work accomplished by OECD is of interest, since it is the first experience of its kind. Theoretical and factual investigations had led to the publication of a comprehensive analysis, Society and the Assessment of Technology, and a report on Methodological Guidelines for Social Assessment of Technology. This was followed by an attempt to test the social assessment approach in applying it to real problems of interested member countries. International cooperation in the field of social assessment of technology is hampered by a number of major difficulties such as changing objectives of national policy, secrecy, race for a competitive advantage, insufficient diffusion and understanding of the concept itself, and the unwillingness or inability of decision-makers to consider middle- and long-term policies. 相似文献
11.
Akio Kameoka Author Vitae Yoshiko Yokoo Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2004,71(6):579-598
Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system. 相似文献
12.
Florian Dams Javier Leonardo Gonzalez Rodriguez Kei Long Cheung Ben F. M. Wijnen 《Journal of medical economics》2018,21(5):510-517
Objectives: Several studies, mostly from developed countries, have identified barriers and facilitators with regard to the uptake of health technology assessment (HTA). This study elicited, using best-worst scaling (BWS), what HTA experts in Colombia consider to be the most important barriers and facilitators in the use of HTA, and makes a comparison to results from the Netherlands.Methods: Two object case surveys (one for barriers, one for facilitators) were conducted among 18 experts (policymakers, health professionals, PhD students, senior HTA-researchers) from Colombia. Seven respondents were employees of the national HTA agency Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica de Salud (IETS). In total, 22 barriers and 19 facilitators were included. In each choice task, participants were asked to choose the most and least important barrier/facilitator from a set of five. Hierarchical Bayes modeling was used to compute the mean relative importance scores (RIS) for each factor, and a subgroup analysis was conducted to assess differences between IETS and non-IETS respondents. The final ranking was further compared to the results from a similar study conducted in the Netherlands.Results: The three most important barriers (RIS >6.00) were “Inadequate presentation format”, “Absence of policy networks”, and “Insufficient legal support”. The six most important facilitators (RIS >6.00) were “Appropriate timing”, “Clear presentation format”, “Improving longstanding relation”, “Appropriate incentives”, “Sufficient qualified human resources”, and “Availability to relevant HTA research”. The perceived relevance of the barriers and facilitators differed slightly between IETS and non-IETS employees, while the differences between the rankings in Colombia and the Netherlands were substantial.Conclusion: The study suggests that barriers and facilitators related to technical aspects of processing HTA reports and to the contact and interaction between researchers and policymakers had the greatest importance in Colombia. 相似文献
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Technology assessment (TA) is team research that entails the cooperative effort of professionals from diverse disciplines. Whether this effort can be truly integrated into an interdisciplinary assessment is problematic, based on analyses of 24 actual TAs. To probe the situational and process factors that impinge on this interdisciplinary research process, we have performed laboratory simulations on TA-like problems. By controlling several key factors, these sessions have yielded insights into small group interactions and offer suggestive evidence for the conduct of future TAs. In these exercises the role of expertise was downplayed as groups preferred to operate in a “common-group learning” mode; epistemological differences emerged in the form of a “pecking order” favoring more quantitative sciences; and performing the leadership role reduced an individual's intellectual contribution to the problem-solving process. These exploratory TA simulations suggest merit in further efforts at controlled study of complex interdisciplinary processes. 相似文献
14.
As financial changes affect hospitals and nursing budgets, nurse executives must know how to anticipate financial results and make aggressive decisions based upon the financial ramifications. 相似文献
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Integration of qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches is usually attempted and appraised in the context of improving forecast accuracy. This paper examines the feasibility and potential merits of integrating these two approaches to produce a useful range, rather than to improve the accuracy, of long-range forecasting. Two approaches of synthesis, one beginning with qualitative future scenarios and the other beginning with quantitative econometric models, are described, illustrated, and compared. 相似文献
16.
Public investments in healthcare technology for the disabled and elderly to improve the quality of social life have been vigorous, but the economic evaluation of the assistive technology is still lacking. Under this circumstance, the purpose of this study is to analyse the socio-economic value of developing assistive technologies with the potential to improve the quality of social life, especially for disabled and elderly individuals. Based on a survey of 400 respondents, the spike model, a special form of the contingent valuation method (CVM) is applied to assess the value of assistive technologies. In Korea, a household’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the development of assistive technologies is US$4.26 per year, on average, in the form of a government-levied tax; although many people express zero WTP for the development of these technologies, people with higher household savings, higher levels of education and higher levels of charity donations have a higher WTP for the development of assistive technology. We conclude that although assistive technologies have considerable economic value many people express zero WTP for the development of these technologies. Therefore, political and social educational efforts are necessary to reach social consensus on the government investment in such technologies. 相似文献
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The study of Systems Assessment of New Technology (SANT) proceeds with the use of case studies. The macromodel for science and technology policy is applied to both the USSR and the Ukrainian SSR. While the macromodel relates science and technology to the national economy, another case study addresses the management of technological change in a somewhat more narrow context, i.e., the management of technological change itself. The final case study deals with management information systems which can be used by management in science and technology planning. 相似文献
18.
In 1996, the second German Delphi study (“Delphi '98”) was started. The Delphi '98 is a two-round Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science, and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998, and is now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus is on the development of science and technology in 12 thematic fields in the next 30 years. To arrive at a better understanding of the influence of personal attitudes towards general developments in natural environment and society, the respondents were asked in the first round of the Delphi survey for their personal opinion towards several megatrends concerning the natural environment, economic, sociological, and political developments. Over 2,300 answers led to a very solid database, which gives insights into the general attitudes of the German R&D experts. On some topics, there is a high consensus, whereas in others, opposite opinions coexist. These results may serve as the database for a factor analysis leading to the identification of five different expert types. This paper examines the crucial question of whether different patterns in assessing the future development in science and technology by expert types can be observed. In general, it turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology. However, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs significantly in the 12 fields. 相似文献
19.
Nanopatenting patterns in relation to product life cycle 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper compares the positions of national nanotechnology development efforts based on analyses of patenting from 1994 to 2005. Searching Derwent world patent index files, 19,351 unique patents are collected based on a composite search algorithm. These abstract records are categorized multiple ways — by top patent assignees, by International Patent Classifications, and through content analyses of the “Use” subfield. We classify the R&D activities by using a 3-stage, life cycle, value chain of nano-raw materials, nanointermediates, and nano-products. Profiles of Japanese, American (US), and European (German) emphases show notable differences in concentration and value chain niche. Such characterizations offer significant research management and policy implications. 相似文献
20.
日本企业IT应用面面观 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
90年代以来迅速发展的IT革命,在人类历史上第一次形成了全球性的信息通讯网络,这不仅有力地促进了信息化社会的发展,也给企业经营战略带来了很大的影响。日本企业在IT应用方面亦有了很大的进展并形成了自己的特点,在增加信息化投资、实现企业信息化的同时,从新产品开发、零部件 相似文献