MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION TESTING OF THE EFFICIENCY OF AUSTRALIA'S SPOT FOREX MARKET

Efficiency in Australia's spot FOREX market is tested using daily, weekly and four-weekly data subsequent to the floating of the dollar in 1983. Earlier research using pairwise cointegration tests of currency markets has suggested little evidence of market inefficiencies. However, multivariate cointegration tests carried out in the paper, based on canonical transformation of the exchange rate data, suggest the existence of long run equilibrium relationships among the spot rates, implying the existence of market inefficiency in the FOREX market.     

THE TESTING OF AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET INDICES FOR MEAN-VARIANCE EFFICIENCY

Three different market indices are tested for mean-variance efficiency using monthly data for leading Australian securities, and following the methodologies suggested in Roll (1979). The balance of the evidence is against index efficiency and against the two-parameter asset pricing theory. However, this could be influenced by imperfections in the tests, inadequate data, and sampling errors in the betas.     

TESTING THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL OF EQUITY PRICES FOR THE UK STOCK MARKET

This paper applies present value tests to the UK stock market. Using monthly data from 1965 to 1990 on real equity price and dividend indices, it is found that the restrictions imposed by the present value model on a vector autoregression comprised of the 'spread' between prices and dividends and the change in real dividends can be rejected both for the complete sample period and for a shorter sample which omits the early years of dividend control and the run up to and aftermath of the stock market 'Crash' of October 1987. These tests are supplemented by informal methods for evaluating the 'fit' of the present value model: the observed spread is found to move 'too much', so that deviations from the model are persistent and long-lasting.     

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF THE CURRENCY OPTION MARKET

Tests of a hedge and a rational boundary of the efficiency of the currency option market are conducted in this study. These tests use transactions data and account for the effects of currency and option bid/ask spreads, synchronization of option prices and underlying exchange rates, market depth, execution lags, and transaction costs. Currency options, unlike domestic stock options, exhibit continuous dividends. The nature of the option and of the data set employed makes the immediate exercise lower bound test one of the purest tests of market efficiency to date. Results reported here indicate no ability to earn abnormal economic or riskless arbitrage profit for the period when these tests are conducted.     

ON USING THE BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL TO VALUE WARRANTS

In this paper ad hoc procedures that employ the Black-Scholes model in the valuation of warrants are examined. Findings indicate that the Black-Scholes model unadjusted for either dividends or dilution undervalues out-of-the-money warrants with short expirations. An adjustment for dilution improves the valuation for longer-term warrants of firms that do not pay dividends. For dividend-paying firms, findings suggest that it is better to adjust for dividends than for dilution when warrants are in the money or have expirations exceeding four years.     

ON IMPROVING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MARKET MODEL

Data on 4,087 securities from 1988 to 1990 are used to test the relation between market model R² and trading volume. Eliminating high-volume observations increases R² by about 10 percent, confirming results previously reported. This study indicates that this improvement is possible by eliminating a small number of observations. It also indicates that this relation between R² and volume is unrelated to firm size.