Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004

Following the great depressions methodology suggested by Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007), we use growth accounting and perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium models to study growth performance of Turkey from 1968 to 2004. Our benchmark model without any frictions and taxes accounts for 86% of the observed change in the growth rate of GDP per-working age person and once we extend the model with taxes and capital adjustment costs it accounts for 60% of the observed reduction in hours worked per-working age person and 35% of the change in the growth of capital-output ratio. Also, we identify that the Turkish economy experienced a depression from 1976 to 1984 and the extended model performs remarkably well to account for the depression period. Our findings generally suggest that rigidities affecting capital accumulation and government policies using distortionary taxes have a crucial role in the evolution of various variables of the Turkish economy.     

Impact of initial seeds on the growth of biotechnology startups: evidence from the U.S. and Japan

ABSTRACT

We assess the impact of initial seeds on the long-run growth of biotechnology startups, including the response of the capital market, in the U.S. and Japan. For this purpose, we collected a comprehensive dataset of the matched sample of listed firms from their foundations to the post-IPO period. We find that the quality of initial seeds predicts significantly both the level and the growth rate of the patent stock as well as those of the asset size of the U.S. startups, even controlling for their alliances and acquisitions, while it predicts only the level of the patent stock for the Japanese startups. Furthermore, the asset growth and the patent stock growth in turn account for the market value performances of the U.S. firms much more significantly than those of the Japanese firms. On the other hand, there are only small differences with respect to the time to IPO and the asset growth through the IPO. These results suggest that higher quality of initial seeds significantly enhanced long-run growth of biotechnology startups in the U.S. but not in Japan, and that the differences in fertility of the initial seeds and in efficiency of the capital market could significantly explain the difference.     

Sources of productivity growth using the Färe-Primont decomposition. An empirical application to the Irish beef sector

Several competing methodologies for TFP estimation have been developed in the past decades. A popular approach in the literature is index number computation. The most widely implemented TFP indices face however several important limitations. For example, Fisher, Tornqvist or Malmquist TFP indices do not satisfy the transitivity test, precluding reliable direct inter-temporal comparisons. The recently developed Färe-Primont TFP index satisfies this property, and therefore it is applied to analyse the evolution of TFP in the Irish beef sector between 2010 and 2016. Moreover, this index is multiplicatively complete, allowing a consistent decomposition of TFP growth in different sources. The sample of Irish beef farms used in the analysis is clustered to account for differences in production technology in the sector. The cluster-specific TFP changes computed were found to present important differences across the seven clusters identified. Significant TFP growth was identified in five of the classes, while TFP declined for the other two. Dispersion and mobility of the TFP levels indicate a lack of structural changes in the sector regardless of the cluster considered.     

Trends affecting the next generation of U.S. agricultural biotechnology: Politics, policy, and plant-made pharmaceuticals

This paper analyzes the structure and history of regulatory policies in the United States, focusing on recent regulatory changes due to the promise and threat posed by plant-made pharmaceuticals (PMPs). PMPs are the latest advance in the genetic engineering of plants and promise to produce medicines inexpensively and abundantly by using a range of different plants as factories to express active medicinal ingredients; however, PMPs may pose a risk to the public's health if they enter the food supply. How the benefits and risks of PMPs are addressed by the respective government's regulation and how this will affect what, if any, products make it to the marketplace and their ultimate success are of great concern to many different parties, ranging from consumers and farmers to health and food production industries. As a result, this paper addresses the history of agricultural biotechnology regulatory policy since 1972, arguing that three distinct periods may be identified: (1) from 1972 to 1986 when the new biotechnology was focused on scientific self-regulation in the laboratory; (2) from 1987 to 2002, as the technology was being developed and widespread release of certain technologies became more common and was not perceived as an environmental threat, regulations became increasingly laxer; and finally, (3) we argue that we are entering a third phase with a series of controversies over regulatory infractions involving genetically engineered (GE) plants and the potential threats posed by PMPs.     

Transportation capital and its effects on the U.S. economy: A general equilibrium approach

We analyze the effect of the US transportation system on economic activity by building a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with a taxpayer-funded transportation capital stock. We highlight stark differences between the positive welfare effects of additional infrastructure spending in the long run, and its potentially negative effects when we account for the large transition (time and delay) costs to build. We also quantify large differences between the effects of additional infrastructure spending and efficient transportation policies, such as congestion pricing and eliminating laws that artificially inflate input prices, concluding that taxpayer-funded transportation improvements that increase GDP significantly may produce smaller welfare gains than efficient policies that increase GDP modestly.     

Productivity differences and inter-state migration in the U.S.: A multilateral gravity approach

In this paper, we study the quantitative role of productivity differences in explaining migration in presence of multiple destination choices. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with multi-region, multi-sector set-up where labor is a mobile input, which adjusts to regional and sectoral productivity shocks, resulting in migration across regions. The proposed model generates a migration network where the flow of migrants between any two regions follows a gravity equation. We calibrate the model to the U.S. data and we find that variation in industrial and regional total factor productivity shocks explains about 63% of the interstate migration in the U.S. Finally, we perform comparative statics to estimate the effects of long-run structural changes on migration. We find that capital intensity of the production process and the demand for services over manufactured goods negatively impact aggregate level of migration whereas asymmetries in trade patterns do not appear to have substantial effects.     

Accounting for the recent surge in U.S. patenting: changes in R&D expenditures,patent yields,and the high tech sector

We decompose the recent patent increase into components representing (1) an increase in resources made available to research and development, (2) an across-the-board rise in the patent yield of an R&D dollar, and (3) changes in the patent yield in individual industries. Two high tech fields, computer hardware and pharmaceuticals, account for 22 percent of the patent increase. While these two industries had the fastest R&D growth among the industries we study, the pharmaceutical industry experienced a decline in its patent yield, limiting its patent growth. We show that increased R&D spending accounts for 70 percent of the patent increase. We discuss our results in the context of alternative hypotheses of the patent surge. We also compare our results to the anecdotal evidence of firm R&D performance at the industry level.     

Cointegration modeling of interrelated factor demands: With an application to labor–import substitution in the European Union

In this paper we present techniques for cointegration modeling of interrelated factor demands. These techniques respect the non-stationary character of the price and quantity data, and permit specification of general, dynamic factor demand models based on error correction forms derived from cointegration. Therefore, we do not have to assume ad hoc dynamic forms. Moreover, we ensure that estimated relations are structural, and not spurious. Cointegrating vectors are estimated subject to all standard economic theory restrictions by using a procedure, which we call dynamic SUR. We show how consistent error correction models can be specified and estimated. In addition, we test the neoclassical restrictions both in the short- and the long run. The new methods are used to shed light on the major problem of the European Union (unemployment) and its relationship with imports. The empirical analysis is conducted for five countries of the European Union with an emphasis to the south: The UK, France, Greece, Italy, and Spain.     

Generalized habit formation in an Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System: An application to meat expenditures in the U.S.

The Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System (IAIDS) model of Moschini and Vissa (1992) and Eales and Unnevehr (1994) is extended to include: (1) general, nonlinear, nonadditive habit effects; and (2) a specification for habit stock terms that allows purchases from the distant past to influence current consumption (long memory). The resulting models are compared with a linear habit effects model and a static specification. The empirical estimation is on U.S. quarterly meat expenditures (1961–1993), with each model being subjected to a battery of misspecification tests. Results of these tests, along with tests of homogeneity and symmetry restrictions, indicate clearly that the most generalized dynamic specification-the one with nonlinear, nonadditive long-memory habit stock effects-is preferred. Furthermore, persistence effects are found to be qualitatively important in that flexibility, consumption scale, and habit flexibility estimates differ, in some instances substantially, between alternative specifications.     

The Japanese information economy: Its quantification and analysis in a macroeconomic framework (with comparisons to the U.S.)

Japan is one of the leading information societies and there is official policy promotion of its information economy image. In this study the information sector of Japan is measured and analysed within a macroeconomic framework, using input-output techniques. Important benchmark statistics on both the primary and secondary information sectors are derived and compared to those obtained in an earlier study of the U.S. The analysis reveals the high growth potential of both information sectors in the two economies. However, important inter-country differences also emerge, in particular in regard to the amount of resources devoted to the information task at the disaggregated sector level. This leads to a discussion of the relationship between investment in the information sector, organisational design, informational efficiency and productivity growth, which is seen to be of crucial importance for the future success or failure of the two economies. Limitations of the approach adopted in this study and areas for further research are indicated.     

Welfare under friction and uncertainty: General equilibrium evaluation of temporary employment in the U.S.

Temporary contracts usually fall outside of employee protection litigation, thus they are often cheaper than permanent contracts and are offered on-demand by firms. In the last two decades, there has been a sharp growth in such contracts in the U.S. labor market. This paper investigates the welfare consequences of offering temporary contracts in the U.S., an environment with low employee protection litigation and high production risk for firms. Employee protection litigation creates firing rigidity in regular labor markets. Pairing firing rigidity with high production risk, firms reduce employment and output, which generates welfare loss. The inexpensive and flexible nature of temporary contracts offers firms a buffer strategy in making employment decisions under risk and navigating the firing rigidity of the regular labor sector, thereby reducing welfare loss. However, temporary contracts cannot fully compensate for the efficiency cost from rising firing rigidity and risk.     

Stock prices,inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes

We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7–2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break to capture the crisis effect, and we assess the inflation uncertainty based on a time-varying unobserved component model. In line with recent empirical studies we discover that in the long run, the inflation and its uncertainty negatively impact the stock prices, opposed to the well-known Fisher effect. In addition we show that for several sector stock indexes the negative effect of inflation and its uncertainty vanishes after the crisis outburst. However, in the short run the results provide evidence in favour of a negative impact of uncertainty, while the inflation has no significant influence on stock prices, except for the consumption indexes. The consideration of business cycle effects confirms our findings, which proves that the results are robust, both for long- and short-run relationships.     

The deep roots of economic development in the U.S. states: an application of Putterman and Weil (2010)

The “Deep Roots” literature investigates the effects of ancient cultural variables on economic outcomes. We extend Putterman and Weil’s (Q J Econ 125(4):1627–1682, 2010) inquiry into the effects of State History and Agricultural History to the economic output in ethnically and racially diverse fifty U.S. States. The ethnic and racial differences across the populations of the fifty U.S. states vary considerably due to historical immigration and slave flows that, as a result, produced radically different State History and Agricultural History scores across the states. Results derived from Putterman and Weil’s methodology do not robustly predict per capita levels of economic output across U.S. States. We also investigate the institutions channel, and find that they impact some measures of institutions, but they do not impact the quality of economic institutions which may be essential for promoting economic growth and development.     

基于贸易收支数据的美国贸易逆差与美元汇率相互关系研究

通过选择美国与中国、日本、加拿大、英国和欧元区11国等美国主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易数据作为样本,研究美国的双边贸易逆差与美元汇率之间的关系.实证分析表明,美国对主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易收支与美元汇率没有实质性联系.美国逼迫其它货币升值没有也不能缓解美国的贸易逆差问题,同样,美国逼迫人民币升值也不能缓解美中双边贸易失衡问题.     

Effects of food and agricultural imports on domestic factors in the U.S. agricultural sector: a translog cost function framework

The translog cost function of the U.S. agricultural sector unveils dynamic relationships between foreign and domestic inputs. On average, capital and labour are weak substitutes, but they are strong substitutes to food and agricultural imports. Therefore, enhancing trade policies on food and agricultural products should be supplemented by strategic policies aiming at protecting domestic factors' income.     

The finance/innovation nexus in Schumpeterian analysis: theory and application to the case of U.S. trustified capitalism

Joseph Schumpeter built his theory of economic development around the interaction between the entrepreneur and the banker, representations of the underlying finance/innovation nexus. The neo-Schumpeterian revival has marginalized this theoretical element, in favor of an interpretation focused primarily on technological aspects of innovation. Recent attempts by innovation scholars to re-integrate the missing financial elements have been hindered by this theoretical gap. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the recovery of the finance/innovation nexus in the context of Schumpeter’s theory by proposing an original institutional interpretation of the relationship between finance and the entrepreneurial function. The new approach identifies the economic role of innovation as dependent on the contextual form taken by the related funding process. Application of these concepts to the U.S. trustified capitalism experience allows for an alternative interpretation linking corporate internalization of innovation and financial repression. A Schumpeterian trilemma involving monetary capitalism, financial autonomy of the corporate sector and financial stability is revealed. The proposed framework provides a flexible theoretical background for the development of our understanding of the current capitalist regime, open to further integration with other schools of economic thought.     

The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method

The United States economy suffers from persistent trade deficits, arising from the so-called ‘global external imbalance’. Can the depreciation of the US dollar improve this phenomenon? This study for the first time applies the heterogeneous panel cointegration method to examine the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of the U.S. and her 97 trading partners for the period 1973–2006. Using new annual data, the empirical results indicate that the devaluation of the US dollar deteriorates her bilateral trade balance with 13 trading partners, but improves it with 37 trading partners, especially for China. In the panel cointegrated framework, a long-run negative relationship between the real exchange rate and the bilateral trade balance exists for the U.S.     

金融改革实验区金融创新与监管动态响应机制研究——基于美国金融创新产品的衍生逻辑视角

温州金融改革实验区的设立及随后深圳推出系列金融创新举措开启了我国金融实验区改革的序幕。在金融实验区,围绕引导民间资本进入规范化的金融体系以更好服务中小微企业孕育了一条凸显金融创新的资金流动链条。美国金融创新体系中以房地产市场为基础的金融创新衍化逻辑尤为典型,但该衍化链条蕴藏的金融监管对创新响应失衡引发了流动性逆转联动着金融危机的爆发,之后掀起全球金融监管改革潮。鉴于此,本文借鉴美国金融创新衍化的经验,弥补其不足,并结合当前国际金融监管趋势,在金融实验区搭建了金融创新与监管间"一种理念,两种响应"的动态响应机制,以期在防范金融风险的基础上使金融创新能够更好服务实体经济。     

A method for estimating the effect of a subsidy on the receiver's resource constraint: with an application to U.S. local governments 1964–1971

Most studies of the effects of subsidies or recipient behavior accept the nominal legal provisions of a grant as defining the actual effective resource constraint faced by the receiver. This paper argues that to the contrary the true effect of a subsidy on the receiver's resource constraint can not be read from nominal administrative requirements. Therefore, an indirect statistical method is required to discover the shape of the post subsidy budget line. This paper develops such a method, which is then applied to U.S. local government expenditure decisions on education for the period 1964–71.     

Productivity growth in natural resource industries and the environment: an application to the Korean tuna purse-seine fleet in the Pacific Ocean

Measures of multifactor productivity growth in natural resource industries are misleading without accounting for the effects on the environment. This paper introduces environmental effects into an output-oriented Malmquist index of multifactor productivity growth in order to evaluate growth in productivity and technical efficiency for Korean purse seine vessels fishing for tuna in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean.