金融摩擦、银行净资产与国际经济危机传导——基于多部门DSGE模型分析

本文建立了一个包含贸易品和非贸易品生产的两部门开放经济DSGE模型,同时在模型中引入了带有金融摩擦的银行部门。目的是考察国际经济危机是如何通过影响一个国家的贸易部门的出口需求,进而造成该国银行净资产的损失,并最终加速传导给该国非贸易部门的。模型中银行部门同时为贸易商品和非贸易商品生产部门提供贷款,从而为危机的传导起到了桥梁作用。本文以包括中国在内的新兴市场经济体作为目标对模型进行参数校准。数值模拟结果显示,在存在金融摩擦时,来自贸易部门的出口需求冲击能够更加显著地传导国内经济的非贸易部门;而政府合理的信贷政策能够一定程度上缓解危机的传导。最后本文对出口冲击下金融摩擦和政府信贷政策进行了福利分析。     

理解中国的实际汇率:一价定律偏离还是相对价格变动?

本文利用1997年1月至2010年9月的数据对人民币实际汇率进行分解,发现可贸易品偏离一价定律因素可以解释实际汇率波动的60%—80%,而可贸易品与不可贸易品之间的相对价格波动只能解释实际汇率波动的20%—40%。这意味着研究人民币实际汇率需要更多地从可贸易产品出发,不应仅仅强调国内不可贸易品与可贸易品的相对价格变化。进一步的研究发现,可贸易品因素对于解释人民币实际汇率占主导的结论,与中国相对于其他国家的经济体发展阶段有关。但是,上述结论并不意味着传统的"巴拉萨-萨缪尔森"效应失灵。事实上,当在计量回归中控制可贸易品偏离一价定律因素以后,巴萨效应在中国显著成立。只不过,相对于可贸易品偏离一价定律因素,巴萨效应对实际汇率波动的影响是次要的。     

经济增长、B-S效应与通货膨胀容忍度

本文利用考虑人口因素变化的B-S效应模型对是否提升通胀容忍度做全面和规范的分析。研究发现,随着劳动力供给逐步趋紧,B-S效应中的非贸易品(低生产率但人工密集型产品)价格可能会出现加快上涨的现象,从而带动整体价格水平上升。考虑到此类价格上涨具有结构性和趋势性的特征,货币政策可能难以对此做出反应,且非贸易品价格上涨也是低生产率部门分享经济高增长收益的重要途径,因此有必要对此作出一定程度的容忍。不过就宏观政策而言,在适当提高通胀容忍度的同时,也要容忍相对低一些的经济增速,避免因持续实施刺激性宏观政策导致成本推动与需求拉动相互强化形成螺旋式的价格上涨。     

货币升值的后果--基于中国经济特征事实的理论框架

本文在一个贸易品/非贸易品两部门模型中,讨论了真实汇率外生条件下部门之间全要素生产率变化对产业结构与贸易余额的影响。我们发现,在保持名义有效汇率固定与国内物价水平稳定的货币政策组合下,市场经济体制改革所带来的贸易品部门相对非贸易品部门更快的全要素生产率进步所带来的不仅是经济增长,还会造成(1)工业/服务业产业结构扭曲;(2)贸易顺差扩大;(3)工资水平下降,并阻碍了农村劳动力向城市转移;(4)工资下降与利润率上升,收入分配恶化。解决上述问题的关键在于人民币汇率水平调整与非贸易品部门市场化改革和全要素生产率提高。     

跨境电商、产品多样化与贸易收益

<正>跨境电商在降低交易成本方面具有十分重要的作用。文章将交易成本作为分析的基础,分别采用双重差分方法和固定效应模型实证检验了跨境电商对产品多样化和贸易收益的影响。结果表明,由于交易成本的降低,跨境电商贸易表现为替代了一般贸易模式的部分产品种类,并使得部分非贸易品转化为可贸易品,从而有利于进口国产品多样化的形成,增加了进口国的贸易收益。     

人民币实际汇率与中国两部门生产率差异的关系——基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的实证分析

长期实际汇率主要取决于经济的供给面,即生产率的变化,这一思想体现在巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的模型中。文章从巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的理论出发选择合适的计量模型,然后以制造业和服务业分别表示贸易品部门和非贸易品部门,通过差分回归模型和协整检验来分析人民币实际汇率与中国两部门间生产率差异之间的关系,回归结果符合巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的结论。在1980~2004年间,人民币实际汇率的变动趋势与中国两部门间的生产率差异变化趋势基本相符:非贸易品部门生产率提高幅度大时,人民币趋向于贬值;而贸易品部门生产率提高幅度大时,人民币实际汇率趋向于升值。     

论中国实际汇率管理改革

<正> 1.实际汇率与均衡的实际汇率 实际汇率是贸易品价格与非贸易品价格之比。这个比价关系是一个基础指标,它的变化直接影响到资源在这两大部门之间的流动。对于一个逐步对外开放的经济体来说,该比价关系的重要性更是不言而喻。     

两部门开放经济中的货币政策冲击——兼论汇率和价格之谜

本文使用SVAR的框架考察了紧缩性货币冲击在贸易部门和非贸易部门的传导及其差异性效果。研究发现,紧缩性货币冲击导致贸易部门产出的下降快于、且在早期大于非贸易部门产出的下降。贸易部门对货币冲击的响应更加敏感。同时发现了Sims(1992)所说的"汇率和价格之谜"现象。针对汇率渠道的反事实实验表明,汇率渠道受到货币政策变量和非货币政策变量的不对称性影响。紧缩性货币政策变量使得汇率升值,产出下降;而非货币政策变量则使得汇率贬值,产出上升。汇率渠道的净效应对两个部门的产出下降起抵消作用。分析印证了Sims(1992)对"汇率和价格之谜"的解释。     

中国参与国际垂直专业化分工的收入差距效应

本文从理论上分析了国际垂直专业化对收入差距的影响机制,在此基础上对中国参与国际垂直专业化分工的收入差距效应进行实证分析。理论与实证分析得出了统一结论:伴随我国对外开放、参与国际垂直专业化分工程度的加深,国际垂直专业化对于中国收入差距扩大具有较大显著的正作用。对此的解释是中国承接发达国家垂直专业化生产环节所带来的技术密集度的提高增加了对熟练劳动力的需求,进而提升熟练劳动力的相对工资,扩大收入差距。     

中国国内与国际边界效应比较研究

地理边界的存在会显著减少跨界贸易量,这就是所谓的"边界效应"。本文基于Coughlin和Novy(2011)的方法,利用2007年的相关数据,在同一框架下对中国国内、国际边界效应进行联合估计。实证结果显示,中国国内边界效应在绝对值上大于国际边界效应,这表明贸易存在本地化偏好,且这一结论不随观测样本、模型解释变量和距离函数形式的变化而变化。为了弱化贸易本地化偏好以获得更多的贸易福利,中央政府应从全局出发,指导各地方产业布局的制定与调整以避免重复建设;地方政府应摒弃"本地思维",尽量减少对本地市场的人为分割与封锁;同时,应在全国范围内建立企业的信用体系,使企业不会因为缺乏信任感而放弃应有的省际贸易;最后,各级政府应加大交通基础设施建设,降低省际间贸易成本特别是运输成本以推动跨省贸易。     

Do foreigners replace native immigrants? A panel cointegration analysis of internal migration in Italy

This paper examines the impact of the immigration of foreigners on domestic labor mobility. Since David Card's seminal study on the regional labor market impact of the Mariel Boatlift it is controversial whether domestic labor mobility equilibrates economic conditions across regions. However, there is little or no evidence that natives leave destinations where migrants tend to cluster. In this paper we reconcile the existing evidence by taking another route: we analyze whether the immigration of foreigners replaces domestic mobility from poor to rich regions. We focus on Italy, which is characterized by large North-South wage and unemployment differentials, and apply panel cointegration methods. The main finding is that, conditional on unemployment and wage differentials, the presence of foreign workers in the labor force of the destination regions discourages internal labor mobility significantly. As a consequence, spatial correlation studies which use the variance of the foreigner share across regions for identifying the wage and employment effects of immigration, tend to understate the actual impact of foreign immigration.     

Sources of inequality in selected MENA countries

The paper deals with income inequality in the selected MENA countries focusing on the dynamics of domestic wage differentiations. The main aim is to identify the sources of inequalities. GDP per capita, share of manufacturing sector, urban share of population, gender participation in the labor force, education and openness may be possible factors. The paper analyzes pay inequalities using a panel regression model where the Theil index is used as the dependent variable. The results show that GDP per capita and female labor force participation have positive (increasing) effects, and openness has a negative (decreasing) effect on pay inequalities in these countries.     

The effect of working time and labor force participation on unemployment: A new argument in an old debate

This paper introduces a new argument into the theoretical literature on labor market effects of changes in working hours and labor force participation. We advance a general equilibrium model in which increased labor supply reduces unskilled unemployment via consumer demand: longer work hours and higher labor force participation imply higher incomes and less (leisure) time. In consequence, home production is reduced in favor of outsourcing domestic tasks to the market, shifting consumer demand toward unskill-intensive goods. Relative demand for unskilled labor rises and unemployment falls.     

Distortions,infrastructure, and female labor supply in developing countries

In this paper I document cross-country gaps between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and GDP per worker. The gaps are driven mostly by a lower female labor force participation (LFP) in developing countries. Females began to participate more in the labor markets of these countries when more households acquired access to basic infrastructure and when distortive policies affecting the prices of household appliances were partially removed. I use a model of home production with endogenous labor force participation to account for these facts. I find that the prices of household appliances and access to infrastructure are quantitatively important in explaining cross-country labor supply differences.     

Unilateral Divorce for Women and Labor Supply in the Middle East and North Africa: The Effect of Khul Reform

ABSTRACT

This contribution investigates whether the introduction of Khul, Islamic unilateral divorce rights for women, helps to explain recent dramatic increases in women's labor supply in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries over the 1980–2008 period. It shows, using data for eighteen countries, that Khul reform increased the labor force participation of women relative to men. Furthermore, we find evidence that the effect of Khul is larger for younger women (ages 24–34) compared to older women (ages 35–55). Younger women increased their labor force participation by 6 percent, which accounts for about 10 percent of the increase in their labor force participation from 1980 to 2008.     

The Effect of International Trade on Labor-Demand Elasticities: Intersectoral Matters

This paper studies the impact of trade on the price-elasticity of aggregate labor demand, based on the idea that a variation in the cost of (a given type of) labor has an effect on the sectoral trade specialization of an economy, at the expense of the domestic productions using this factor intensively, even when the trade balance is kept unchanged. As this effect is more important the more open the economy, trade openness induces an increase in the associated labor-demand elasticity, at least if the country has a comparative disadvantage in the industries using intensively the type of labor considered. This argument is illustrated by a simple model, based on an Armington hypothesis, with an empirical assessment for France.     

基于马尔科夫链预测山西农村剩余劳动力转移趋势

在对农村劳动力转移的相关国内外理论文献回顾的基础上，利用马尔可夫链建立了山西省农村劳动力流动趋势模型，希望可以寻找山西省进行农村剩余劳动力转移可以借鉴的模式。然后。对山西农村剩余劳动力转移的现状和特点进行了总结。     

经济开放对中国就业的长期和短期影响效应——基于跨省面板数据的协整与误差修正模型的再检验

文章基于1996—2007年的省际面板数据,采用面板协整和面板误差修正模型的计量方法就经济开放对我国国内就业的长期和短期影响效应进行了深入的实证分析,研究结果表明：（1）出口是就业增长的长期和短期原因,且长期的拉动效应更大;进口在长期和短期对国内劳动力都具有替代效应,且长期的影响弹性较小;外资是就业增加的长期原因但其对就业的影响效应很弱;（2）出口、进口和外资对就业变化的平均贡献度分别为12.994%、-4.051%和0.392%,总体的经济开放因素对就业变化的平均贡献度为9.336%,且贡献度的变化趋势表现为倒＂U＂型。     

Intra-household labor supply,migration, and subsistence constraints in a risky environment: Evidence from rural El salvador

We investigate the use of intra-household labor allocation as a means of risk coping when subsistence constraints matter in rural El Salvador. We show that households increase the labor supply of its male members to the family farm and abroad in the US after being subjected to adverse agricultural productivity shocks. The latter is the result of a standard substitution effect, whereas the former is the result of subsistence concerns. Theoretically, these results are not at odds with each other if these events differentially impacted rich and poor households. We also show that the earthquakes of 2001 resulted in large reductions in the number of female members who were sent abroad and large increases in hours of domestic labor supplied by female members. We argue that this result is a consequence of subsistence motives because female labor supply at home increased despite lower remuneration.     

The causality between fertility and female labour force participation in Japan

This study examines the correlation and reverse correlation between fertility and female labor force participation in Japan during 1950-93. The model is logarithmic and follows earlier studies by Cheng (1996) and Hsiao's (1981) version of the Granger causality method. Data were obtained from the Japan Statistical Yearbook on total fertility rates and female labor force participation rates. Tests for cointegration revealed no cointegration between measures of fertility and employment. Findings indicate that the presence of children had a strong negative effect on labor force participation. Findings are consistent with the study by Yamada and Yamada (1986) and inconsistent with the study by Hamilton (1984), who found that fertility was positive and not significantly related to female labor force participation in Japan. Findings indicate that female labor force participation had a negative and insignificant effect on fertility. These findings support findings from studies by Sprague (1988) and Maddavi (1990) and contest findings of Hamilton (1984) and Yamada and Yamada (1986) that showed negativity and significance. The authors view their findings as correctly specified and supportive of a causality that favors fertility affecting labor force participation without feedback. Findings indicate that employment does not prevent or reduce the probability of having more children. Having young children at home does strongly discourage women from seeking employment outside the home.