新冠肺炎疫情对我国粮食安全的影响分析及稳定产量的建议

稳定粮食安全根基是应对各类黑天鹅、灰犀牛事件的有力保障。疫情期间,充足的粮食供给再次发挥了安天下、稳民心的作用。从目前调查的情况来看,疫情对粮食生产经营的影响是暂时的、局部的、有限的,疫情持续也带来农资价格上涨、物资到位迟缓等问题。但种粮效益低、农业气象偏差、传统病虫害与输入性虫害叠加、国际经贸形势日趋复杂等挑战交织,是确保全年粮食产量、供应稳定的主要挑战。要高度重视抗疫战线拉长带来的负面影响,积极疏通农资供应渠道、有序组织返田返工,更要稳住政策支持,完善设施装备配套,强化技术支撑,做好防灾减灾。     

新冠肺炎疫情对全球农产品市场与贸易的影响及对策建议

新冠肺炎疫情在全球加速蔓延,对世界经济、国际农产品市场与贸易产生重大影响,主要表现为世界经济增速大幅下降并陷入衰退;全球农产品供需将从供应相对充足转向供不应求;国际农产品价格将止跌回升,甚至出现大幅上涨;全球农产品贸易将因限制性措施严重受阻,贸易规模显著下降;中国也因全球疫情蔓延而遭受巨大冲击。因此,本文建议加大国内农业生产支持力度、确保国内主要农产品供应,加快大宗农产品进口步伐,积极应对贸易限制措施,有效开展农业对外援助、深化粮食安全国际合作。     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国人身保险发展的影响研究

2019年12月中旬,湖北省爆发了新冠肺炎疫情,在全国范围内迅速蔓延,成为继2003年“非典”后的又一次重大疫情。新冠肺炎疫情对我国的社会经济发展和人民日常生活,尤其是人身保险都产生了非常重大的影响。在此背景下,分析新冠肺炎疫情对我国人身保险产生的短期冲击和中长期冲击,从需求端、供给端、支付端、政策端4个方面梳理了新冠肺炎疫情对我国人身保险发展的影响。     

新冠肺炎疫情对全球食物安全的影响及对策

当前,新冠肺炎疫情已在全球扩散,许多本就因为冲突、自然灾害或气候变化而深陷食物不安全的国家和地区的防疫形势也日益严峻。虽然目前全球食物供给总体充足,食物价格稳定,但疫情的快速蔓延将给全球食物安全带来威胁。由于隔离和边境关闭,市场、供应链和贸易受到波及,全球食物的供给受到影响。食物流通渠道可能因运输中断和更加严格的检疫措施而受阻,运输成本和贸易成本增加、效率降低。一些国家为保障国内食物供应而采取限制出口的行为,将影响依赖于粮食进口的国家进口粮食,也不利于依赖于出口初级农产品的低收入发展中国家出口农产品。封锁措施带来的经济影响使居民收入和购买力下降,居民获得充足的营养食物变得更加困难。食物安全不再是一个区域性问题,而是一个需要共同应对的全球性问题,各国应当共同努力,加强合作和全球治理,对最弱势群体采取迅速的保护和援助措施。既要确保国内食物供应链的正常运行,同时,应该保持贸易开放,并利用和创新电子商务保障食物供应,保障全球粮食安全。     

2020年农民增收:新冠肺炎疫情的影响与应对建议

新冠肺炎疫情将从多个渠道、多重方式对今年农民增收带来严重冲击,其中对工资性收入影响尤为突出。疫情在全球加速扩散,对全球经济贸易增长冲击严重,通过全球供应链影响我国产业经营和农民就业,今年后期农民持续增收挑战巨大。本文认为必须统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展两线作战;加快中小企业复工复产,实施文化旅游产业振兴,加大创新创业支持,恢复和稳定农民就业增收;创新农产品产销对接,实施产业提升工程,提升风险治理能力,稳住和促进农业经营增收;加强国际疫情研判,抓紧做好防范应对,稳住农民增收基础。要对标问题、攻坚克难、系统发力,通过一揽子政策助力农民持续增收,力争如期实现全面建成小康社会和全面打赢脱贫攻坚战目标。     

新冠肺炎疫情下商业银行流动性风险分析

商业银行资产负债业务流动性问题对金融安全稳定有着重大影响.本文结合新冠肺炎疫情初期我国商业银行资产负债业务流动性情况,分析疫情下流动性风险增加的原因及其影响,最后提出应对流动性风险增加的措施与建议.     

从全球视角分析在新冠肺炎疫情下如何保障食物和营养安全

流行性传染病的爆发往往伴随着食物与营养安全的风险。本文首先从全球视角回顾流行性传染病爆发对食物与营养安全的经验与教训,其次分析新冠肺炎疫情对中国食物和营养安全的潜在冲击,最后对如何在防范新冠肺炎疫情下保障中国和全球居民的食物和营养安全提出政策建议。本文分析指出,短期内中国食物与营养相对安全,但需要警惕疫情对中长期食物安全的影响。鉴于新冠肺炎疫情传播呈现全球化趋势,为防范全球食物和营养安全的系统性风险,需要加强全球合作,采取包括保障食物供应链畅通、保持贸易开放、减少对农业生产的冲击及关注贫困人口等综合应对措施。     

Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID-19

The effect of COVID-19 on Canadian food security is examined from two different perspectives. COVID-19 creates a unique “income shock” that is expected to increase the prevalence of household food insecurity. This food insecurity can be measured by utilizing the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). More fundamentally, COVID-19 heightens household concern about the capacity of the Canadian food system to ensure food availability. Despite surges in demand and supply chain disruptions, we currently do not observe broad, rapid appreciation in food prices. This suggests that there is an adequate supply of food for the near term. There is less certainty over intermediate and longer time periods because so many factors are in flux, particularly the rate of increases in sicknesses and deaths across the country and globally. Data on these health factors and elements of the food supply chain are needed to predict beyond a short time frame. In this regard, we discuss three ongoing considerations—ease of capital flows, international exchange, and maintaining transportation—that will help ensure food availability in the longer run.     

对近期与中长期中国粮食安全的再认识

粮食安全始终是国家经济、社会稳定与发展的基础,突如其来的新冠疫情在影响中国与全球经济发展的同时,也引起社会各界对粮食安全问题的广泛关注。本文分析了中国粮食安全保障现况、近期各界关注粮食安全的主要问题和未来面临的挑战,并预测中长期主要粮食供需变动趋势。分析表明,近期和中长期中国口粮绝对安全,未来饲料粮(玉米和大豆等)进口将逐渐增长以保障国内畜产品的供给安全;而笼统的粮食安全概念往往误导社会各界和政府。口粮安全、饲料或畜产品安全是中国粮食安全已至食物安全的关键问题。最后,本文提出保障国家粮食安全的相关政策建议。     

新冠肺炎疫情对2020年农业农村发展的影响评估与应对建议

由于种养业季节性强、农民工流动性大、农村防护条件差,疫情对农业农村发展的影响具有全面性和持久性。研究显示,疫情防控导致的物流中断,家禽养殖企业遭遇生存危机,导致短期肉价下跌和2020年肉类供需紧张局面加剧;果蔬滞销、粮食销售延迟以及部分农产品消费抑制,将使相当部分种植户2020年收益面临下滑;疫情期间的延期复工和疫情后的长期停工会导致农民工就业人数下降205万人至351.1万人,2020年农民工人均工资收入名义增长速度可能将下降1.45至2.46个百分点。综合考虑疫情对各项收入来源的影响,2020年农村居民人均可支配收入名义增长速度可能将下降2.59至3.59个百分点。因此,应加紧建立应急储备和加大供需调节力度,以补贴和政策性信贷支持引导龙头企业帮助小农户度过难关,加大对农民工再就业培训和返乡创业的支持,多渠道稳定农民收入。     

Migrant farmworkers: Resisting and organising before,during and after COVID-19

Migrant farmworkers are a ubiquitous but invisibilised, expropriated and exploited component of the global agricultural economy. Their conditions took centre-stage during the COVID-19 pandemic. Fear of production disruption in the migrant labour-intensive sectors led to foreign workers being deemed ‘essential’ in many countries, and exceptional procedures and regulations were instituted that further increased their exploitation, illnesses and deaths. However, the pandemic has not merely exposed the long-established structures of racialised exploitation and expropriation in the domain of farm work. Although it exacerbated the precariousness of the living and working conditions defining the reality of migrant farm workers, there is evidence that the pandemic also strengthened farmworkers' individual and collective consciousness, along with forms of organisation and resistance. The symposium ‘Migrant Farmworkers: Resisting and Organizing before, during and after COVID-19’ explores two dimensions reflected in migrant farmworkers' realities during the pandemic. First, the contributions look at the general conditions defining power structures and material outcomes within the political economy of agriculture before and during the pandemic. Second, they explore the conditions under which resistance and solidarity emerged to question established structures of exploitation.     

转变生产消费方式诉求下的动物福利规制分析——基于防控新冠肺炎的思考

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情给中国造成了重大生命健康和经济损失,也表明了合理利用与善待动物的重要性。中国已到了关注动物福利的发展阶段,改善动物福利水平不仅是保障食品安全、突破隐性贸易壁垒障碍的要求,更是促使人们改变生产与消费习惯,进而防范动物源性传染病疫情发生的要求。中国目前已有了对动物福利进行规制的民众基础,应进一步提升民众对动物福利的认知、加大对动物福利学理及国际规制趋向的研究。在此基础上制定有中国特色、长远引导、不断完善的与动物福利相关的法规、制度和政策,从而有效防范类似新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的发生。     

Agriculture,transportation, and the COVID-19 crisis

In this short paper, I assess how COVID-19-related disruptions in transportation services, as well as new demands for transportation services, could impact Canadian agricultural supply chains. The brief analysis reveals that agricultural access to bulk ocean freight, rail movement, and trucking has generally improved in the pandemic, bolstered by the reduced demand for these transportation services by other sectors of the economy. The intermodal containerized movement of grains and food products has seen some disruption from the lack of empty containers in North America. The widespread consumer adoption of physical distancing measures has vastly increased the demand for retail food pickup and delivery services to the point where these services are being rationed by long wait times. From a policy perspective, there is an apparent need for (a) continued supply chain monitoring and industry engagement, (b) the proactive development of strategies to deal with absenteeism and other potential threats to the supply chain, and (c) an assessment of the economic and health merits of providing additional public resources to provide greater access to grocery pickup and delivery services.     

新冠肺炎疫情防控下的国家治理

2020年突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情考验着中国国家治理能力,个人的生命安全成为核心关注点。疫情防控下的国家治理,需切实关注国家与个人之间的关系问题。个人和国家之间的合作或对抗,形构着个人与国家之间的信任机制。从国家和个人(社会)两个视角出发,以行政改革促进抗击疫情中"自下而上"的联防机制和"自上而下"的回应机制的建设,能够有效地在国家—个人之间建立起互信关系。现代国家唯有形成上下一体、有序统一的治理格局,才能有效应对疫情防控中的治理难题。