The impact of tax rate changes on intercorporate investment

We examine how tax rates impact investment by corporations in the stock market. We regress changes in intercorporate investment on changes in the various individual and corporate top statutory marginal tax rates (MTRs). We find a significant negative association between changes in individual capital gains MTRs and changes in intercorporate investment, while no such association is evident for changes in either individual ordinary or dividend MTRs. These results support the notion that corporations respond to the after-tax rate of return and/or market efficiency consequences brought about by a change in individual capital gains MTRs. We find a significant positive relation between changes in intercorporate investment and changes in corporate MTRs on ordinary income. These results are consistent with corporations scaling back expansion plans and instead investing free cash flows in equity securities as MTRs increase.     

The Elasticity of Taxable Income in New Zealand*

This paper reports estimates of the elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net‐of‐tax rate for New Zealand taxpayers. The relative stability of the New Zealand personal income tax system, in terms of marginal rates, thresholds and the tax base, provides helpful conditions for deriving these estimates. The elasticity of taxable income was estimated to be substantially higher for the highest income groups. Changes in the timing of income flows for the higher income recipients were found to be an important response to the announcement of a new higher rate bracket. The marginal welfare costs of personal income taxation were consistent across years, being relatively small for all but the higher tax brackets. For the top marginal rate bracket of 39 per cent, the welfare cost of raising an extra dollar of tax revenue was estimated to be well in excess of a dollar. Implications of the findings are that: disincentive effects of high top marginal rates can be substantial even when labour supply responses are small; the welfare costs of increases in top marginal tax rates can be high; and announcement effects of tax policy changes can lead to considerable income shifting between time periods.     

Abolishing the Tax‐Free Threshold in Australia: Simulating Alternative Reforms*

This paper examines the role of the tax‐free income tax threshold in a complex tax and transfer system consisting of a range of taxes and benefits, each with its own taper rates and thresholds. Considering a tax and benefit system with benefit taper rates whereby some benefits are received by income groups other than those at the bottom of the distribution, it is suggested that a tax‐free threshold is not a necessary requirement to achieve redistribution. Four alternative policy changes, each involving the elimination of the tax‐free threshold in Australia and designed to achieve approximate revenue neutrality, were examined using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator. A range of implications were examined, including labour supply responses to tax changes and the effects of policy changes on inequality and social welfare. The results demonstrate that it is possible to eliminate the tax‐free threshold under approximate overall revenue and distribution neutrality, but that it is impossible to improve labour supply incentives at the same time. In order to achieve improved incentives, either revenue or distribution neutrality has to be sacrificed.     

The income elasticity of tax revenue: estimates for income and consumption taxes in the United Kingdom

This paper provides estimates of individual and aggregate revenue elasticities of income and consumption taxes in the UK over the period 1989–2000. It shows how budgetary changes, including changes to income‐related deductions, have substantially affected income elasticities. The estimates of consumption tax revenue elasticities show that changes in consumption patterns over time are important. A merit of the approach used here is that elasticity estimates can be calculated readily from official published sources.     

The effects of standardized tax rates,average tax rates,and the distribution of income on tax progressivity

This study examines the changes in US individual income tax progressivity over the 1986–2003 period using the indexes developed by [Kakwani, N.C., 1976. Measurement of tax progressivity: An international comparison. Economic Journal 87(March), 71–80]. Although progressivity over this time frame has generally been studied in the literature, we provide additional insights by decomposing the changes in index values to account for the effects of concurrent changes in the standardized tax rates, average tax rates, and the income distribution. The decomposition should prove to be particularly useful when different summary indexes lead to conflicting conclusions about progressivity changes, as is often the case. From a policy standpoint, we show that it is the standardized tax rates, a derivative of the legislated tax rates, which need to be monitored and managed to offset the negative progressivity effects of increasing before-tax income inequality.     

The effects of tax rate changes on tax bases and the marginal cost of public funds for Canadian provincial governments

The efficiency losses from taxation vary directly with the responsiveness of a government??s tax bases to tax-rate increases. We estimate the dynamic responses of tax bases to changes in tax rates using aggregate panel data from Canadian provinces over the period 1972 to 2006. Our preferred empirical results indicate that a one percentage point increase in corporate income, personal income, and sales tax rates is associated with a 3.67, 0.76, and 1.17 percent reduction in their respective tax bases in the short run. The corresponding long-run tax base semi-elasticity estimates are higher: ?13.60, ?3.63, and ?3.18, respectively. We use the tax base elasticity estimates to calculate the marginal cost of public funds (MCF) for the provinces?? three major taxes. Our computations indicate that the corporate income had the highest MCF and that the sales tax had the lowest MCF in all provinces in 2006. The MCF for the personal income tax ranged from 1.44 in Alberta to 3.81 in Quebec. Our results imply that there would have been significant welfare gains in 2006 from reductions in provincial corporate income tax rates. Our computations also indicate that the equalization grant formula may reduce the perceived MCF of the provinces that receive these grants, and that increases in provincial corporate and personal income taxes can cause significant reductions in federal tax revenues.     

Corporation tax asymmetries: effective tax rates and profit shifting

This paper examines the way in which the asymmetric treatment of losses within corporate tax codes can be expected to affect behavioural responses to changes in tax rates. The paper uses the concept of an equivalent tax function, raising the same present value of tax payments as the actual function, in which the effective rate on losses in any period, and thus the degree of asymmetry, is explicit. The influence on the elasticity of tax revenue with respect to the tax rate of this effective rate is then examined, where ‘loss-shifting’ occurs. Results suggest that estimates of the behavioural effect on tax revenues of changes in tax rates can be expected in general to be smaller in regimes which involve greater asymmetries in the tax treatment of losses. Importantly, as losses vary over the economic cycle, the model predicts that the asymmetric tax treatment generates effects on tax revenues that are non-linear between above-trend and below-trend parts of the cycle.     

The tax benefit of income smoothing

A worker can reduce tax liability by contributing to a private pension plan when marginal tax rates are high and withdraw pension benefits when marginal tax rates are low. We quantify the tax benefit of income smoothing through the private retirement system and find that it is negligible. This conclusion is important to households, investment advisers, tax policymakers, and scholars engaged in financial retirement planning.     

Optimal redistributive tax and education policies in general equilibrium

This paper studies optimal linear and non-linear income taxes and education subsidies in two-type models with endogenous human capital formation, endogenous labor supply, and endogenous wage rates. Assuming constant human capital elasticities, human capital investment should be efficient under optimal linear policies, whether general equilibrium effects are present or not. Hence, education subsidies should not be used for distributional reasons. Due to general equilibrium effects, optimal linear income taxes may even become negative. Optimal non-linear policies exploit general equilibrium effects for redistribution. The high-skilled type optimally has a negative marginal income tax rate and a positive marginal education subsidy. The low-skilled type optimally faces a positive marginal income tax rate and a marginal tax on education. Simulations demonstrate that general equilibrium effects have only a modest effect on optimal non-linear policies.     

Corporate tax policy and incorporation in the EU

In Europe, declining corporate tax rates have come along with rising tax-to-GDP ratios. This paper explores to what extent income shifting from the personal to the corporate tax base can explain these diverging developments. We exploit a panel of European data on legal form of business to analyze income shifting via incorporation. The results suggest that the effect is significant and large. It implies that the revenue effects of lower corporate tax rates—possibly induced by tax competition—will partly show up in lower personal tax revenues rather than lower corporate tax revenues. Simulations suggest that between 12% and 21% of corporate tax revenue can be attributed to income shifting. Income shifting is found to have raised the corporate tax-to-GDP ratio by some 0.25% points since the early 1990s. This research was carried out while Ruud de Mooij was a visiting fellow at DG ECFIN in October 2006. The views expressed in this Article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the European Commission.     

Slowing Fossil Fuel Extraction: A Role for Taxation of Exports,Capital Gains and Interest Income

This paper develops a model of a growing open economy rich in non‐renewable resources, the extraction of which negatively impacts domestic productivity and whose sector competes with final production for capital. We analyse how tax rates on capital gains and interest income and the time trend of an export revenue tax rate could slow the extraction of resources for export. We find that taxing capital gains and interest income at the same rate and setting an export revenue tax rate to decline at the marginal social cost of extraction would defer extraction. An export revenue tax rate need not fall over time to curb depletion if capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than interest income, which is second best to taxing asset returns at the same rate when the resources sector competes for capital.     

Personal income tax mimicry: evidence from international panel data

This paper investigates personal income tax (PIT) mimicry at the international level. It is the first to empirically investigate the extent to which PIT mimicry varies along the tax schedule and the first to include nations which are not part of the OECD. We use data on international personal income tax schedules from the world tax indicators to estimate marginal and average tax rates at various multiples of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). These tax rates are then used to estimate the extent to which countries respond to their neighbors’ PIT policy. We find evidence of PIT mimicry using a balanced panel of 53 countries over 24 years. This finding is strongest for tax rates at lower multiples of per capita GDP and survives several robustness checks.     

Taxpayers' responsiveness to tax rate changes and implications for the cost of taxation in Sweden

Historically, labor supply elasticities have been used to evaluate tax policy and predict tax revenue effects. They are likely to underestimate taxpayers' response to tax rate changes, and hence to underestimate changes in potential tax revenues, however, because they measure only how taxpayers alter hours worked. Taxpayers can also respond to tax rate changes by altering, for instance, their work effort and form of compensation. An alternative measure that accounts for these responses as well as hours worked is the elasticity of taxable income. This paper estimates the elasticity of earned taxable income for Swedish taxpayers using two different approaches and a number of control variables and the 1990/1991 tax reform as a “natural experiment”. The preferred elasticity estimates fall in the range of 0.4–0.5, comparable with recent estimates for the U.S. and larger than most of the labor supply elasticity estimates used to evaluate tax policy in Scandinavia previously, which suggests that deadweight losses are two to three times higher than previously thought. JEL Classification H21 · H24 · H31 · J22     

The value-added tax and growth: design matters

Previous research has shown that changes in the composition of tax revenue affect long-run growth. However, little is yet known about whether the way tax revenue is raised matters for growth. This paper examines whether, in the context of OECD countries, a revenue-neutral increase in the value-added tax (VAT), offset by a fall in income taxes, may have different effects on long-run growth depending on how the VAT is raised. We show that a revenue-neutral rise in the VAT promotes growth when it is raised through a rise in C-efficiency, while it does not when it is raised through a rise in the standard VAT rate, the rate applied to the largest portion of taxed consumption. C-efficiency measures the departure of the VAT from a perfectly enforced tax levied at a single rate on all consumption, which in advanced economies is largely due to the VAT that is not levied because of exemptions and reduced rates. Thus, our results suggest that an increase in C-efficiency, possibly reflecting the broadening of the VAT base through fewer exemptions and a more uniform rate structure with fewer reduced rates, promotes growth more than a rise in the standard rate.

     

On the construction of marginal federal personal and social security tax rates in the U.S

In this article, I correct and extend my earlier series on marginal federal personal income tax rates. I also construct a measure of the marginal Social Security tax rate and add this to the income tax rate to obtain a measure of the effective marginal tax rate on income due to federal taxes. Finally, I compare my series on marginal income tax rates and its method of construction with those of Barro and Sahasakul.     

On the design of an optimal non-linear tax/pension system with habit formation

We study the optimal tax/pension design in a two-period model where individuals differ in both productivity and discount rates or projection bias and where their utility of the retirement period consumption is not independent of the earlier standard of living. We consider both welfarist and paternalistic social objectives. The paternalistic government attempts to correct the projection bias by using a higher discount factor. We derive general mathematical expressions that characterize optimal tax/pension design (marginal tax/subsidy rates). They suggest that the pattern of marginal labor income taxes depends on habit formation. Negative marginal labor income tax rates are possible. To gain a better understanding, we examine numerically the properties of an optimal lifetime redistribution policy with habit formation. We find support for non-linear tax/pension program in which some types of individuals are taxed while some are subsidized. The effect of changes in the degree of habit formation is explored in the numerical simulations as well as the implications of different degrees of correlation between skill and projection bias.     

Progression and revenue effects of income tax reform

Usually, only initial revenue effects of personal income tax reforms are considered. However, a tax reform characterized by base broadening in exchange for rate reduction can reduce the income elasticity of tax revenue. In that case, the increase in revenue after income growth will be relatively smaller: the tax reform has a negative effect on revenue in the second period. Using the microtax model of the Central Planning Bureau we simulated the effects of the Dutch Oort reform 1990 on revenue elasticities and, consequently, on tax revenue. The income tax revenue elasticity declined by 17 percent which caused an additional revenue loss of 0.6 percent in 1990, rising to 3.8 percent in 1993.     

Indirect tax harmonization and global public goods

This paper identifies conditions under which, starting from any tax-distorting equilibrium, destination- and origin-based indirect tax-harmonizing reforms are potentially Pareto improving in the presence of global public goods. The first condition (unrequited transfers between governments) requires that transfers are designed in such a way that the marginal valuations of the global public goods are equalized, whereas the second (conditional revenue changes) requires that the change in global tax revenues, as a consequence of tax harmonization, is consistent with the under/over-provision of global public goods relative to the (modified) Samuelson rule. Under these conditions, tax harmonization results in redistributing the gains from a reduction in global deadweight loss and any changes in global tax revenues according to the Pareto principle. And this is the case independently of the tax principle in place (destination or origin).     

Federal income tax laws that cause individuals’ marginal and statutory tax rates to differ

This article presents a “phaseouts table” as a tax educational tool. The table compiles and summarizes the phaseouts of and limitations on deductions, credits, exclusions from income, and allowed contributions for individual U.S. federal income taxpayers in 2013. Phaseouts can cause individual taxpayers’ marginal tax rate (MTR) to be higher than their statutory tax rate (STR) (i.e., “bracket” based on taxable income). For each phaseout, the table includes how the phaseout works, the adjusted gross income (AGI) range for the phaseout, and the related formula to compute MTR, given STR. The table is appropriate for any course that covers either U.S. federal income taxation of individuals or tax planning. (The phaseouts table is updated annually and is available upon request from the author.) The remainder of the article is a teaching resource, explaining how to compute the specific impact on MTR of each of several example phaseouts. Together, the phaseouts table and article enable U.S. tax instructors to assist students in learning about phaseouts in an integrated, comprehensive manner.     

中美比较视域下个人所得税制演进逻辑与改革效应

美国个人所得税制历经百年发展,其税制模式、税率结构以及费用扣除等方面日臻成熟、完善,且充分体现了宏观经济和社会发展的要求,发挥了较好的财政收入和收入再分配职能。比较分析中美两国个人所得税演进逻辑及改革效应,可以看出中国个人所得税制有待完善。借鉴美国税制模式,改革与完善中国个人所得税制的方向为:逐步向"综合个人所得税制"转变;降低税率的档次和边际税率;完善费用扣除制度;加大税收征管力度等。