The distributional impact of unification and the 1992–93 recession on West German households

The 1992–93 recession in the western states of Germany has been attributed, in substantial measure, to the macroeconomic consequences of policies to finance unification. Studies of the costs of unification have not attempted to measure the burden of the recession. We estimate a dynamic, panel model of household incomes using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and use it to forecast what these incomes would have been in 1992–94 without a recession. Using a ratio of actual to forecast incomes, we compare the relative burden of the recession across households. Our findings suggest that western households below the median income bore the brunt of the combined impact of unification and the recession of 1992–93.
JEL classification: P3, D3, E3.     

Some reflections on the 1968–93 SNA revision

The 1968 System of National Accounts (SNA 68) represented an important milestone in national accounting. In providing a more detailed structuring of the economy and integrating a correspondingly more relevant system of basic, producer and purchasers' prices by commodities and industry sectors, it helped lay to rest the early schism that developed between Keynes and Tinbergen over the question of the legitimacy of empirical economic modeling. The system was readily embraced by the advanced countries of Western Europe because it responded directly to the contemporary political imperatives of development planning and the need for economic forecasting models. But a large part of the non-Western "free world" encountered almost insurmountable difficulties in the full implementation of the system and became quickly bogged down in the quagmire of inter-industry statistics and valuation problems. Nancy and Richard Ruggles pressed for a revision providing workable solutions that would make the system more adaptable to the policy needs and statistical capacities of the majority of UN member countries. What actually happened took very much longer to reach fruition than was ever intended. The SNA 93 now represents the "gold standard" for national accounts, covering every aspect of economic activity. It is a masterpiece of conceptual coherence. Its encyclopedic character allows analysts and practitioners alike to dip into its voluminous pages for reasoned answers to why certain valuation questions and estimation procedures should be dealt with in a particular way. But SNA 93 remains a formidable document and it is not the operational data friendly framework that the Ruggles initially had envisaged.     

Macroeconomic Policy in Australia Since the Sixties

This article reviews macroeconomic policy in Australia since the 1960s. It is argued that economic thinking by Australian governments progressed from a Keynesian approach to a classical approach in 1975 and then to a Keynesian-classical synthesis in 1983. To the usual major indicators of macroeconomic performance, unemployment and inflation, the article adds a third indicator, called thrift. Thrift is a measure of how society is allocating its resources between current and future consumption. The record of thrift for Australia since the 1960s is described and evaluated.     

论作为货币政策工具的黄金业务

从中央银行资产负债表分析，买卖黄金也是扩大或收缩国内货币供应的手段。由于黄金，政府债券和外汇不是完全的替代物，中央银行可以考虑把公开市场业务与外汇业务和适当的黄金业务结合起来，以获得理想的货币政策效果。本文提出的四资产理论模型对中央银行黄金业务的政策效果进行了分析，其结果支持以上的观点。     

Structural Deficits and Fiscal Policy Stance in Australia, 1966–67 to 1988–89

This study adjusts the total deficit (or net public sector borrowing requirement) of the whole of the public sector in Australia for the effects of changes in both the level of economic activity and the implicit tax that inflation imposes on the holders of government bonds. Both adjustments are important, even when looking at year-to-year changes in the structural deficit. When the stance of fiscal policy is measured by the structural deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product, four years stand out as years of major changes. In each of the years 1973-74, 1979-80 and 1987-88 the stance of fiscal policy was substantially tightened with the abrupt tightening in 1979-80 being the largest change, though not much larger than that in 1973-74. By far the biggest change relaxing the stance of fiscal policy was in 1983-84, and the change in this year was the biggest of any change in either direction in the period.     

The Economic Performance of the States and Territories of Australia: 1861–1992

This paper examines the economic performance of the States and Territories of Australia from 1861 to 1992. Original estimates of real per capita output for each State are constructed and used to determine whether, for selected periods, the material standards of living of the States converged. Whilst the data suggest that this was the case for the selected subperiods up to the mid 1970s, it appears that from this period the per capita income gap between the richest and poorest States probably widened. The most important factor driving this phenomenon is the ability of States to successfully adapt to national and international sectoral changes.     

中国经济全面复苏和宏观政策“正常化”

面对国际金融危机冲击,中国政府采取了强力的宏观激励政策,中国经济从2009年第四季度全面复苏,经济增长回到了潜在增长率之上。中国正处在城市化拉升期,因此投资对城市化是有效的,2010年应继续全面复苏。但强力的宏观政策是非常时期的非常举措,宏观政策的正常化是2010年的重要抉择。继续沿着原有的激励方式和城市化模式,必然加快土地城市化的扩张和高价房地产的模式,直接导致资产价格泡沫和通货膨胀,因此应倡导稳速增效,提高城市化聚集度、改革政府体制,消解地方政府、大企业集团等带来的"倒逼机制",让宏观政策正常化。     

中国贸易战略调整中宏观调控政策的相互协调

近年来,中国贸易顺差不断增长,进出口贸易地区结构差异显著,我国的对外贸易战略亟待调整。在这种背景下,探求保持中国贸易经济持续、健康发展的政策组合,越来越显现出重要性和紧迫性。分析了我国目前所要采取的贸易战略模式,指出要降低贸易依存度,就必须内需与外需并重,同时,只有通过产业政策、货币政策和财政政策等政策的相互协调,才能逐步改善贸易条件,重塑贸易结构。     

滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。     

Banks' Capital Structure and the Liquid Asset – Policy Implication of Taiwan

Banks' size, liquidity and profitability are the main determinants of their capital ratios in Taiwan. Large banks implicitly substitute bank capital for regulator's capital and banks mainly depend on internal cash flows for capitalization. However, medium-sized banks in Taiwan use liquidity as a substitute for bank capital, and small banks with low liquidity tend to have lower capital ratios. Regulators should pay close attention to these banks since they may be undercapitalized.