经济周期战略对商业银行盈利能力的影响北大核心CSSCISSCI

经济周期战略的选择对商业银行保持盈利成长性和稳定性有着重要的影响。本文运用主成分分析的方法对我国14家商业银行2004-2011年的数据进行分析,确定衡量商业银行总体经营状况的综合指标,进而找出各家银行的经济周期战略,最后用于分析经济周期战略的选择对银行盈利能力的影响。实证结果表明,采用弱周期战略总体有助于提高商业银行的盈利能力,但相对影响力有限。这表明我国商业银行应采用弱周期的稳健增长模式。     

商业银行跨国经营动机:理论研究与实践分析

跨国银行的本质在于其业务开展的跨国界性,商业银行跨国经营的动机却千差万别。从理论的角度,商业银行可能出于维持客户、重整本国银行业、实施新的业务发展战略、被动适应激烈的竞争等方面的原因做出跨国经营的决策。而在实践中,更多的是出于追随客户、扩大盈利规模方面的考虑。本文分别从理论和实践的角度分析了商业银行实施跨国经营的动机，对我国商业银行跨国经营动机进行了研究．从而提出我国商业银行的跨国经营应从金融企业参与国际竞争、从为客户提供更好金融服务进而提高自身盈利水平的角度，重新审视跨国经营战略。     

经济周期与银行盈利周期的历史表现与启示

商业银行属于经营信用机构,稳健经营、抵御风险一直是银行业追求目标。置于经济波动之中的商业银行往往会受到社会各界的质疑,这不利于维持其稳健经营的社会形象。商业银行如何克服亲经济周期现象、维持平稳经营,不仅是理论界同时也是商业银行管理层所重点关注的问题。本文通过对最近的一次完整经济周期中银行盈利周期进行对比分析,试图总结银行盈利周期与经济周期之间的关系,并试图探寻影响银行盈利的决定因素。     

加大改革创新力度 提高我国商业银行抗风险能力

如何应对经济周期性波动带来的风险是商业银行面对的重要课题。本文在分析我国经济周期性波动对商业银行影响的基础上,提出要以发展的态度来看待问题,经济下行和紧缩的宏观经济政策在给商业银行带来困难的同时,也促使商业银行加快改革创新和业务转型步伐,完善公司治理,提高综合经营能力和风险管理能力;监管部门也应创新监管机制和政策,为我国银行的改革创新和发展壮大提供宽松的环境。     

加快经营转型 提高竞争能力

加快推进业务经营转型,是农行增强抗御经济周期波动能力、有效提升市场竞争能力和价值创造能力的一项重大战略举措。农行应结合自身发展实际,推进业务经营与盈利渠道的多元化,实现从传统的融资中介向全能型服务中介转变,从＂社会资本供给型银行＂向＂国民财富管理型银行＂转变。本文就如何加快业务经营转型,提升农行市场竞争能力谈几点想法。     

我国商业银行在经济周期波动中的信贷经营研究

在当前国际金融危机向经济危机转化、我国经济进入下行周期的大背景下,对经济周期中的银行信贷经营行为进行重点研究已显得尤为重要和迫切。本文从发展战略、经营机制、模式创新等角度,提出了应对经济周期波动的对策建议,旨在进一步增强我国商业银行整体经营水平和风险控制能力,提升核心竞争力,打造国际一流金融企业。     

数字经济背景下开放银行未来发展趋势研究

数字经济时代背景下,开放银行商业模式应运而生,掀起了大数据时代第二波金融科技大潮,将会使传统商业银行经营理念与业务发展模式发生颠覆性变化,从而为商业银行实现战略转型升级提供了良好机遇。本文梳理了开放银行的概念及相关文献,总结了开放银行的发展历程、建设路径选择及监管的国际经验,并从战略、客户、业务、技术、盈利和风控角度分析了开放银行未来的发展趋势。传统商业银行应该积极主动应对,加快向开放银行转型升级。     

商业银行应对经济周期性波动的思考

宏观经济的周期性波动,是现代经济社会发展的一个固有特点。本文在择要分析我国改革开放以来宏观经济周期性波动的基本情况和主要特征的基础上,论述了经济波动对商业银行经营的影响,并针对这种情况,提出了我国商业银行应对宏观经济周期性波动的主要策略。     

信用卡业务的亲周期性

商业银行的亲周期性是指宏观经济波动会对商业银行的经营产生巨大的影响,而商业银行也会通过信贷活动推动经济周期的形成和加剧经济的周期性波动。在宏观经济萧条时,信用违约将会显著增加;相反,在经济繁荣时,信贷质量则会明显改善。因此,银行信用也呈现萧条时收缩、繁荣时扩张的特点。信用卡业务与商业银行其他信贷业务类似,也会深受宏观经济波动的影响。本文在例举近10年来我国香港经济环境变化对信用卡市场影响的基础之上,分析了信用卡行业亲周期性对信用风险计量的影响,同时根据我国实际情况提出了相关风险缓释策略。     

信用卡业务的亲周期性

商业银行的亲周期性是指宏观经济波动会对商业银行的经营产生巨大的影响，而商业银行也会通过信贷活动推动经济周期的形成和加剧经济的周期性波动。在宏观经济萧条时，信用违约将会显增加；相反，在经济繁荣时，信贷质量则会明显改善。因此，银行信用也呈现萧条时收缩、繁荣时扩张的特点。信用卡业务与商业银行其他信贷业务类似，也会深受宏观经济波动的影响。本在例举近10年来我国香港经济环境变化对信用卡市场影响的基础之上，分析了信用卡行业亲周期性对信用风险计量的影响，同时根据我国实际情况提出了相关风险缓释策略。[第一段]     

经济增长下行周期中商业银行的经营策略研究

本文指示,美国次贷危机只是导致全球经济增长下滑的导火索,本轮全球经济增长步入了周期性调整,其本质原因在于决定经济周期的三股核心力量发生了根本性的转折。面对宏观形势的变化,商业银行应认真审视各项业务面临的挑战,积极调整业务结构,采取多项应对措施,以经受经济周期性波动的考验。     

Macroprudential policy transmission and interaction with fiscal and monetary policy in an emerging economy: a DSGE model for Brazil

We investigate the transmission of macroprudential (MaP) instruments in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where foreign capital flows interact with financial frictions and banks are exposed to different sources of credit default risk. The model is estimated for Brazil with Bayesian techniques. We compute optimal combinations of simple MaP, fiscal and monetary policy rules that can react to the business and/or the financial cycle. We find that the gains from implementing a cyclical fiscal policy are only significant if MaP policy countercyclically reacts to the financial cycle. Optimal fiscal policy is countercyclical in the business cycle.     

Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk

Prior empirical research on the relation between credit risk and the business cycle has failed to properly investigate the presence of asymmetric effects. To fill this gap, we examine this relation both at the aggregate and the bank level exploiting a unique dataset on Italian banks’ borrowers’ default rates. We employ threshold regression models that allow to endogenously establish different regimes identified by the thresholds over/below which credit risk is more/less cyclical. We find that not only are the effects of the business cycle on credit risk more pronounced during downturns but cyclicality is also higher for those banks with riskier portfolios.     

我国商业银行经营投资银行业务对风险影响的实证研究

本文以2009-2018年19家商业银行为研究对象,运用波动性分析、相关性分析及面板数据回归分析方法,考察了经营投资银行业务对银行风险的影响。研究结果表明,投资银行收入无明显周期性趋势,波动性明显高于利息净收入,经营投资银行业务会加剧银行业收入的不确定性,但由于收入占比较小,投资银行业务并非造成我国银行业收入波动的主要因素。多数银行的投资银行收入与利息净收入表现为正相关性,银行难以通过经营投资银行业务实现风险分散目的。投资银行业务对银行风险影响的回归结果较为显著,随着投资银行收入在银行收入结构中的权重越来越大,银行多元化收入程度随之加深,银行风险也随之下降。     

Do Loan Loss Provisions Affect the Credit Fluctuations in China’s Banking System?

ABSTRACT

The global financial crisis of 2008 sparked new ideas on pro-cyclical transmission in the financial system. The accounting treatment method of loan loss provisions differs between the accounting standards that banks use and the supervisory rules of banks. This fundamental difference has attracted wide attention from academics and regulators. This article studies whether bank loan loss provisions affect credit fluctuation in China’s banking system. We divide loan loss provisions into discretionary and non-discretionary loan loss provisions. We find that non-discretionary loan loss provisions result in greater credit fluctuation, whereas discretionary loan loss provisions have no significant impact on credit fluctuation. Further evidence shows that the relation between non-discretionary loan loss provisions and credit fluctuations does not vary among different types of banks. Overall, our study shows that non-discretionary loan loss provisions can increase credit fluctuation and therefore strengthen banks’ pro-cyclical behavior.     

论我国信用保险业的经济周期管理

本文尝试从经济周期的角度看待本轮危机给我国信用保险行业带来的启示。首先研究了经济周期性波动中信用风险水平的变化,进而引申说明经济周期对信用保险行业的市场需求和风险水平都具有深刻的影响。其次,提出了信用保险行业要在经济的周期性波动中保持稳定经营必须面对的挑战,其中特别说明了官方支持的信用保险机构的独特之处。最后,对我国信用保险机构如何开展经济周期管理提出了若干建议。     

Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses

We model aggregate credit losses on large portfolios of financial positions contracted with firms subject to both cyclical default correlation and direct default contagion processes. Cyclical correlation is due to the dependence of firms on common economic factors. Contagion is associated with the local interaction of firms with their business partners. We provide an explicit normal approximation of the distribution of portfolio losses. We quantify the relation between the variability of global economic fundamentals, strength of local firm interaction, and the fluctuation of losses. We find that cyclical oscillations in fundamentals dominate average losses, while local interaction causes additional fluctuations of losses around their average. The strength of the contagion-induced loss variability depends on the complexity of the business partner network.     

Financial constraints of private firms and bank lending behavior

We investigate whether and how financial constraints of private firms depend on bank lending behavior. Bank lending behavior, especially its scale, scope and timing, is largely driven by bank business models which differ between privately owned and state-owned banks. Using a unique dataset on private small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) we find that an increase in relative borrowings from local state-owned banks significantly reduces firms’ financial constraints, while there is no such effect for privately owned banks. Improved credit availability and private information production are the main channels that explain our result. We also show that the lending behavior of local state-owned banks can be sustainable because it is less cyclical and neither leads to more risk taking nor underperformance.     

Foreign Banks in Transition Countries: To Whom Do They Lend and How Are They Financed?

We use focused interviews with managers of foreign parent banks and their affiliates in Central Europe and the Baltic States to analyze the small‐business lending and internal capital markets of multinational financial institutions. Our approach allows us to complement the standard empirical literature, which has difficulty in analyzing important issues such as lending technologies and capital allocation. We find that the acquisition of local banks by foreign banks has not led to a persistent bias in these banks' credit supply toward large multinational corporations. Instead, increased competition and the improvement of subsidiaries' lending technologies have led foreign banks to gradually expand into the SME and retail markets. Second, it is demonstrated that local bank affiliates are strongly influenced by the capital allocation and credit steering mechanisms of the parent bank.     

“When the cat's away the mice will play”: Does regulation at home affect bank risk-taking abroad?

This paper provides the first empirical evidence that bank regulation is associated with cross-border spillover effects through the lending activities of large multinational banks. We analyze business lending by 155 banks to 9,613 firms in 1,976 different localities across 16 countries. We find that lower barriers to entry, tighter restrictions on bank activities, and to a lesser degree higher minimum capital requirements in domestic markets are associated with lower bank lending standards abroad. The effects are stronger when banks are less efficiently supervised at home, and are observed to exist independently from the impact of host-country regulation.