基于犹豫模糊Dematel-Kano方法的云南省智慧旅游服务需求分类研究

为解决智慧旅游背景下各顾客需求间相互影响关系考虑不足、顾客需求信息模糊和多样等问题,提出一种对智慧旅游服务需求差异性划分的犹豫模糊Dematel-Kano方法。首先,基于TOPSIS思想构建用以刻画顾客需求之间相互影响关系的犹豫模糊Dematel模型,以获取智慧旅游服务需求客观重要度。其次,利用犹豫模糊集表征Kano问卷中顾客需求重要度,并借助此模型对各需求进行定量分类和筛选。再次,构建集成的犹豫模糊Dematel-Kano二维坐标体系,进而获得各需求的重要度排序。最后,以云南省智慧旅游服务研究为例,甄别和筛选出关键的游客服务需求,为提高游客满意度及高质量的用户体验提供理论依据。     

A choice-based multi-product diffusion model incorporating replacement demand

This study proposes an integrated forecasting model that incorporates both first purchase diffusion and replacement component of sales in predicting multi-product diffusion patterns. The model consists of a two-stage procedure that customers undertake during purchase occasions according to a diffusion process or replacement process, and at each occasion, they make purchase incidence decisions and product choices according to a choice model. By incorporating various exogenous factors in the choice model, the model can identify the impact of each factor on customers' purchase incidence decisions and choice decisions among various product sub-categories. This approach enables us to understand the overall process of customers' purchasing behavior and to separate total sales amount into sales to three consumer segments: first-time buyers, customers who repurchase the same product category and customers who change their previous product category. We applied the proposed model in the forecasting multi-product framework; forecasting sub-category level automobile sales and brand level mobile terminal sales in the South Korean market. The results of the empirical studies showed that incorporating the replacement components into the multi-product diffusion framework is useful not only in understanding the demand interaction among automobile categories and among mobile handset brands, but also in producing more accurate long-term sales forecasts compared to previous multi-product diffusion models.     

Spatial random utility model with an application to recreation demand

The paper examines the relevance of unobserved spatial dependence between individual decision-makers in the analysis of discrete choices. To incorporate spatial interdependencies in the behavioral analysis, we propose a spatial random utility model of recreation demand. The model combines the set-theoretic concept of spatial neighborhood, endogeneity of spatial interdependencies, and unobservable individual preferences. Our estimation procedure uses an efficient pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. We apply the model to the study of recreational travel demand in Iowa and evaluate the significance of unobserved spatial interdependencies between individual households in recreational travel choices.     

基于生态经济学的水质水量统一优化配置模型体系框架

用生态经济系统的概念、功能以及生态经济学的基本观点和原理,分析了水质水量统一优化配置问题;提出了水质水量统一优化配置的概念,分析了其内涵;阐述了水资源生态经济系统的生态经济阈和水质水量统一配置可行方案拟定的原则;依据生态经济系统结构优化限制性因素原理,构建了由配置方案生成模型和配置方案效果评价模型组成的水质水量统一优化配置模型体系框架。为水质水量统一优化配置研究提供了一种基本思路。     

后发汽车企业技术研发合作模式及演进路径研究

为探讨后发汽车企业技术研发合作模式的演进路径,以2家合作企业为研究对象,利用修改后的Lotka-Volterra模型建立研发产出模型。提出了依赖研发模式、共存研发模式和共生研发模式,并结合奇瑞和丰田的研发示例进行了验证。结果表明:利用修改后的Lotka-Volterra模型描述后发汽车企业技术研发合作模式演进具有合理性,模型解释了后发汽车企业技术研发合作模式演进路径的形成机理,为后发汽车企业选择及升级技术研发合作模式提供了决策参考。     

杭州公共自行车景区游客体验研究

旅游交通随着旅游业和交通运输业的大力发展,越来越成为影响旅游目的地游客体验质量的重要环节。2008年5月1日起,杭州在全国率先运行公共自行丰租赁系统,将自行车纳入公共交通领域。如今,此套公共自行车租赁系统的使用满意度,尤其是景区范围内的旅游交通游客体验情况,值得学界关注和研究。     

LONG‐RUN VERSUS SHORT‐RUN PERSPECTIVES ON CONSUMER SCHEDULING: EVIDENCE FROM A REVEALED‐PREFERENCE EXPERIMENT AMONG PEAK‐HOUR ROAD COMMUTERS

Earlier studies on scheduling behavior have mostly ignored that consumers have more flexibility to adjust their schedule in the long run than in the short run. We introduce the distinction between long‐run choices of travel routines and short‐run choices of departure times, using data from a real‐life peak avoidance experiment. We find that participants value travel time higher in the long‐run context, supposedly because changes in travel time can be exploited better through the adjustment of routines. Schedule delays are valued higher in the short run, reflecting that scheduling restrictions are typically more binding in the short run.     

基于系统动力学的高技术集群产学研集成创新研究

基于3个维度的邻近度——地理邻近度、知识邻近度、组织邻近度,从系统动力学视角提出了高技术集群产学研集成创新的基本分析框架,建立了高技术集群产学研集成创新的系统动力学模型,并应用Vensim PLE软件对模型进行了仿真模拟。结果表明,在提高知识邻近度或组织邻近度时,高技术集群产学研创新能力确有一定程度的提高,但若能使得两种邻近度同时得到提高,集群的产学研创新能力将会得到大幅提升。     

产品责任制度建立的经济学分析——对“三菱帕杰罗事件”的思考

本文旨在讨论群体机会集内由经济发展、收入状况、技术水平及产品特性等因素决定的消费者对产品的质量及价格偏好、产品供求弹性和行业生产者的新技术敏感度对选择产品责任制度中产品缺陷界定标准的影响。论文在对中美两国现行产品责任制度比较分析的基础上 ,借鉴克莱因的市场绩效与质量保证模型 ,建立了产品缺陷界定标准模型 ,论证产品责任制度的产品缺陷标准界定是在机会集约束下 ,群体内各利益集团根据自身剩余最大化原则所做出的选择。     

基于熵权TOPSIS的重庆汽车产业集群国际竞争力研究

近年来,重庆汽车产业集群发展迅速,但相比之下,其国际竞争力还有待提高。通过构建汽车产业集群国际竞争力的评价体系,运用熵权TOPSIS方法对重庆、长三角、珠三角、东北、京津、华中和德国斯图加特七个汽车产业集群的国际竞争力进行单层次和综合层次的评价。结果表明：重庆汽车产业集群存在技术创新能力、市场开拓能力、产业生产能力、产业集群能力、产业发展环境等方面的差距和问题,这正是提升其国际竞争力的努力方向。     

Risk perception in an endogenous information environment

This study examines risk perception in an endogenous information setting, where information about an uncertain event can only be gathered if the uncertain event is chosen over all other alternatives. We conduct a laboratory experiment that employs a driving context, where participants are asked to make route choices over uncertain routes using a driving simulator. Based on the route choices participants make, their subjective belief of travel delay can be inferred and structured estimated. The results show that: 1) The average participants initially overestimates the risk of travel delay across high- and low-risk conditions. 2) In subsequent driving periods, only participants in the lowest risk condition express significant downward belief adjustment, resulting in their beliefs no longer being significantly different from the objective risk. This is consistent with the toll fee being the most elastic in the lowest risk condition, and the most inelastic in the higher risk conditions.     

Non-attendance and dual processing of common-metric attributes in choice analysis: a latent class specification

There is a growing literature that promotes the presence of process heterogeneity in the way that individuals evaluate packages of attributes in real or hypothetical markets and make choices. A centerpiece of current research is the identification of rules that individuals invoke when processing information in stated choice (SC) experiments. These rules may be heuristics used in everyday choice making as well as manifestations of ways of coping with the amount of information shown in choice experiment scenarios. In this paper, using the latent class framework, we define classes based on rules that recognise the non-attendance of one or more attributes, as well as on the addition and the parameter transfer of common-metric attributes. These processing strategies are postulated to be used in real markets as a form of cognitive rationalization. We use a SC data set, where car driving individuals choose between tolled and non-tolled routes, to translate this new evidence into a willingness to pay (WTP) for travel time savings, and contrast it with the results from a model specification in which all attributes are assumed to be attended to and are not added up with parameter preservation. We find that the WTP is significantly higher, on average, than the estimate obtained from the commonly used full relevance and attribute preservation specification.     

庭院经济与农民增收初探

庭院经济是指农户利用房前屋后的闲散零星土地资源和剩余劳动力,依据生态经济学原理和系统工程学方法设计的一种高效集约化的经营活动。庭院经济由过去只重视生产效益过渡到在注重效益的同时,更注重生活环境和生活质量的改变。庭院经济已经和大市场相连,和农业现代化、农业产业化相连,从而形成了庭院经济的许多新特点。根据我国庭院经济发展的现状,分析了庭院经济的作用,总结了"四位一体"生态农业模式、"种植-养殖-果树"模式、庭院加工业模式、高新科技模式、集约化生产经营模式、旅游观光模式;根据"十一五"的发展规划,提出了相应的发展对策。     

The Economic Contributions of James J. Heckman and Daniel L. McFadden

This paper analyzes the economic contributions of Daniel L. McFadden and James J. Heckman, who were awarded the Nobel Prize in economic science in 2000. McFadden's analytical work on discrete choices and related theory brings economic tools to bear on policy questions that previously had not been empirically investigated. The multinomial logit and similar models developed by McFadden enable researchers to empirically model factors that affect individual choices (e.g. of travel mode, occupation or employment, and residential location) with discrete outcomes. Heckman's research on selective samples demonstrates the difficulty of achieving generalizable results in analyses of choice-based behavior. In addition, his work on the evaluation of social programs has challenged conventional beliefs about the infallibility of experimental evaluation results and explored the limits and potential of non-experimental methodologies in a range of social science applications.     

Does FDI in manufacturing cause FDI in business services? Evidence from French firm‐level data

Abstract .  This paper uses a large French firm-level data set to evaluate the determinants of location choices in services. In a first step, estimates for four broad services sectors are compared with the estimates for the manufacturing sector. Using a discrete choice model, we find that this framework does fairly well in explaining location choices in services and that the parameter estimates for services are close to the ones for manufacturing. We then investigate whether the similarity in estimated parameters is due to a complementarity between location choices in manufacturing and in services, in the sense that manufacturing location choices may cause the location of services. A particularly appropriate services sector, for this purpose is the business services sector, for which input-output linkages with the manufacturing sector are particularly strong. It is found that the downstream demand of French manufacturing firms has a positive effect on the location choice probabilities of French business services firms. This effect is robust.     

旅行社产品质量网络评价系统设计研究

依据绩效感知服务质量度量模型(SERVPERF)以旅游者的旅游知觉为标准对旅行社产品进行评价。评价系统将旅行社产品细化并以旅游产品消费过程为基础,以官方机构为主体,运用网络认证码为保障确保结果的真实性。旨在为旅行社产品质量评价、监督提供可行、可靠的网络评价系统。通过评价使旅游信息更加对称,并对旅行社产品质量改进起到督促作用,对实现旅游企业间的良性竞争具有重要的现实意义。     

融入循环经济理念的规划环境影响评价指标体系框架

循环经济理念融入规划环境影响评价最直接、有效的切入点是指标体系。从社会-经济-自然复合生态系统的视阈分析了循环经济的基本理念,并以驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应模型为骨架,建立了融入循环经济理念的规划环境影响评价指标体系框架。利用该框架对城市总体规划和工业规划的环境影响评价提出了可借鉴的评价指标。应用表明该框架不但融入了循环经济理念,而且具有广适、灵活、简易等特点。     

A note on Peltzman's theory of offsetting consumer behavior

A re-estimation of the basic Peltzman (1975) model using a richer data set strongly indicates that mandated automobile safety legislation has been important in reducing traffic fatalities. There is little or no evidence of offsetting consumer behavior.     

The value of commuting time in an empirical on-the-job search model – an application based on moments from two samples

This article estimates the Value of Commuting Time (VOCT) among Swedish males in an empirical on-the-job search model. It uses a large sample of employee-establishment linked data obtained from administrative registers. The sample lacks information on mode choice for the journey to work. We therefore estimate a mode choice model on another sample and use this model to link the administrative data to the relevant set of travel times, costs and distances. The VOCT is found to be 1.8 times the net hourly wage rate in the sample. The relatively high estimate results from a high VOCT among cohabiting men.     

The Effect of Bidder Heterogeneity on Combinatorial Conservation Auction Designs

In an iterative combinatorial auction, bidders can submit bids on individual and/or on combinations of projects in a series of intermediate rounds, where bid prices are revised before a final allocation is made. The iterative format is useful for conservation service procurement as landholders can rely on market information revealed through the rounds to evaluate their choices of projects and bid prices. However, there is no single way of providing the market information. Different designs for generating price information have been proposed. Little is known about the performance of iterative combinatorial auction designs when heterogeneous bidders, with different cost structures, participate in an auction. Using an agent based model, we evaluate a selected set of designs under different bidder heterogeneity scenarios. We observe that higher degrees of heterogeneity lead to lower auction efficiency and that auction outcomes are highly sensitive to price feedback design choices.