人民币国际债二元一体发展模型初探

在人民币被IMF正式纳入SDR货币篮子后,中国重新启动熊猫债发行,具有重要的现实意义,也获得市场的正面反应。它与点心债市场一起,共同作为境内债券市场的补充,形成完整的人民币债券市场体系。本文根据美元、日元国际债的实践,论证境内市场发行的熊猫债与境外市场发行的点心债具有不同的市场功能,是互为补充、互为依存的关系。熊猫债令境外机构可接触到境内庞大的本币资金,并令其有机会实现多元化战略目标,点心债则采取市场化定价机制,手续简便,效果更高,与欧洲离岸债券发行惯例接轨。尽管熊猫债和点心债的发债体部分重叠,但鉴于两个市场整体规模很小,相对潜在的融资量及投资量,市场容量远远不足。内地积极推动两个市场建设,形成二元一体发展模型,可实现共同发展目标,这也符合人民币国际化的长远发展利益。     

“宝岛债”推动离岸人民币市场一体化

作为首批赴我国台湾地区（以下简称台湾）发行离岸人民币债券的大陆企业，农行、中行、建行、交行四家大型银行的香港分行分别发行“宝岛债”，2013年12月10日在台湾证券柜台买卖中心同步挂牌交易，合计金额为67亿元人民币。发行“宝岛债”是两岸经贸融合的进一步发展，既有助于扩大岛内“宝岛债”市场规模，为台湾投资者提供更多的投资选择，也为大陆企业提供了更多的融资渠道，有助于其改善负债结构；同时也有利于两岸贸易和投资的便利化，被视为两岸金融合作的新里程碑．     

外汇市场

分析师指出，中国外汇交易中心人民币兑美元周四（9月8日）收涨，欧债危机出现暂时缓解迹象，欧元反弹引领非美货币上涨，人民币中间价亦小幅高开，带动汇价走升。尽管欧元短暂反弹，但国际市场避险情绪并未明显降温，国际美元高位徘徊，这将给人民币后市走向造成压力，料近期汇价持续盘整的可能性大。     

创新发展熊猫债市场

<正>多维度的创新既有利于发行人在境内亮相,提高曝光度,更是对熊猫债市场结构的持续优化熊猫债市场发展历程与现状2005年,国际多边金融机构亚洲开发银行(ADB)和国际金融公司(IFC)作为首批外资机构发行人,通过在华发行人民币债券进入中国银行间债券市场,熊猫债至此登上中国债券市场历史舞台。     

国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化路径研究

近年来陆续爆发的国际金融危机以及愈演愈烈的美债危机和欧债危机,牙买加体系正面临前所未有的挑战,建立多元化的国际货币体系可能是现实改革的最优选择。正确把握历史机遇,推进人民币国际化成为当前紧迫而艰巨的任务,本文给出了人民币国际化可供选择的路径以及现阶段的现实选择。     

台湾地区人民币债券市场发展契机与展望

海峡两岸货币清算机制启动以后,在台湾地区发行的人民币计价债券被称为"宝岛债"。自2013年2月台湾相关主管部门开放人民币清算业务至2014年8月,台湾地区共发行21档"宝岛债",总金额164亿元人民币,但较之当前岛内人民币资金池规模仍有较大反差,滞台人民币资金运用范围亟待拓展。本文借鉴香港人民币债券市场发展的成功经验,分析台湾人民币债券市场发展面临的挑战与契机,并对其后续发展作出展望。     

IFC将在伦敦发行10亿元人民币债券,支持人民币国际化

世界银行集团成员IFC将发行10亿元人民币债券（约合1.65亿美元），以提高外国在华投资，支持中国人民币的国际化。本次发行是多边机构在伦敦证券交易所发行量最大的一次。 IFC副总裁兼司库华敬东表示：“IFC致力于支持中国资本市场的深化。本次发行将有助于展示国际投资者对离岸人民币债券的强劲需求，同时扩展对华投资的人民币资金来源。”     

人民币国际化背景下的熊猫债发展研究

随着我国利率市场化、汇率形成机制改革以及资本账户开放进程的加快,人民币国际化取得了重要进展,熊猫债市场迎来了新的发展机遇。2015年以来,熊猫债的发行主体范围进一步扩大,发行规模大幅增长,已成为市场关注的焦点。本文分析了熊猫债市场的发展情况以及影响熊猫债发展的重要因素,研究了当前人民币国际化及国内债券市场开放背景下熊猫债发展面临的问题与机遇,并对推动熊猫债进一步发展提出了建议。     

浅析第五套人民币设计、印制的几点不足

自第五套人民币100券于1999年10月1日发行以来,已陆续发行了20元券、硬币1元、硬币1角、50元券、10元券.第五套人民币的设计第一次和国际钞票接轨,采用了票面开放式和焦点透视、散点透视技艺,利用计算机辅助设计与我国传统手工绘制有机结合,突出了大人像、大水印、大面额数字,并首次采用了我国独有的光变油墨技术,增强了防伪功能,有利于反假币斗争,维护人民币尊严.但在流通过程中也发现存在一些不足:     

发展上海人民币国际债券市场研究

本文梳理了国际债券的基本理论和人民币国际债券市场的现实进展,并在借鉴香港点心债券和日本武士债券发展经验的基础上,提出了上海发展人民币国际债券市场的对策建议,包括扩大人民币国际债券发行主体和投资者范围、建立和扩大上海人民币市场资金池、完善离岸人民币回流机制等。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.