Bank Loan Supply in the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Role of Political Connection

We investigate the changes in bank loan supply during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, with particular focus on the influence of political connections. We demonstrate that although political connections can help firms obtain lower loan rates during the precrisis period, such benefits disappear in the postcrisis period. Moreover, the loan acceptance ratio for politically connected firms is enhanced in the postcrisis period, especially for the politically connected firms with high risks. Evidence reveals that the focus of the benefits for politically connected firms is more likely to shift from the loan rate to the loan acceptance ratio during the postcrisis period.     

村镇银行小微业务风险防范研究

长期以来,我国运用各种手段致力于解决"三农"和小微企业融资难问题,而其中以村镇银行为代表的新型农村金融机构,成为解决农村金融薄弱问题的一个重要手段。然而,受经济发展速度回落的影响,村镇银行小微业务面临的风险越来越大。如何进行小微业务风险的防范,是村镇银行实现可持续发展的关键。本文旨在以经济发达地区的村镇银行为切入点,对小微业务发展中存在的风险进行深入探讨,并以江苏省苏州市昆山鹿城村镇银行为例,具体阐述村镇银行小微业务风险防范的创新举措。     

在危机中管控风险——莱商银行小企业融资服务案例

随着全球经济一体化,各国经济运行相关度越来越高,2008年以来,由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机导致大部分国家在虚拟经济和实体经济上都遭受了巨大的损失.各国政府针对危机纷纷出台救市政策,扩大需求,力争在最短时间内实现经济复苏.在这场危机中,我国的实体企业,尤其是进出口企业,也遭受到了较大冲击:业务量下降,资金紧缺,企业经营困难,贸易违约率上升,某些企业濒临破产.     

Bank Earnings Management and Tail Risk during the Financial Crisis

We show that a pattern of earnings management in bank financial statements has little bearing on downside risk during quiet periods, but seems to have a big impact during a financial crisis. Banks demonstrating more aggressive earnings management prior to 2007 exhibit substantially higher stock market risk once the financial crisis begins as measured by the incidence of large weekly stock price “crashes” as well as by the pattern of full‐year returns. Stock price crashes also predict future deterioration in operating performance. Bank regulators may therefore interpret them as early warning signs of impending problems.     

央行发布窗口指导意见，引导货币信贷合理增长 加大对小企业信贷支持力度

9月1日,央行发布窗口指导意见。央行指出,2008年以来,在党中央、国务院的正确领导下,我国克服了国际经济不利影响和国内严重自然灾害带来的困难,     

Product Market Competition and Financial Decisions During a Financial Crisis

We find that in the presence of the “flight to quality” during the 2007‐2008 financial crisis, firms that depended less on external financing (or internal finance dependent (IFD) firms) prior to the crisis were able to secure additional financing and increased investments, while external finance dependent (EFD) firms significantly contracted their external financing and investments. IFD firms’ increased investments during the crisis were associated with higher market share growth, while EFD competitors lost their market share. The results indicate that firms’ financial decisions during the financial crisis are interrelated with their product market dimensions.     

加大对小企业信贷支持力度

9月1日,央行发布“窗口指导”意见。央行指出,2008年以来,在党中央、国务院的正确领导下,我国克服了国际经济不利影响和国内严重自然灾害带来的困难,国民经济保持平稳较快发展,符合宏观调控预期的发展方向。下一阶段,要认真贯彻落实中央统一部署,把保持经济平稳较快发展、控制物价过快上涨作为宏观调控的首要任务,把抑制通货膨胀放在突出位置。既要保持货币政策的连续性和稳定性,也要增强金融调控的预见性、针对性和灵活性,合理把握调控的重点、节奏、力度,促进经济又好又快发展。     

Private Equity and Portfolio Companies: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

Critics of private equity have warned that the high leverage often used in PE‐backed companies could contribute to the fragility of the financial system during economic crises. The proliferation of poorly structured transactions during booms could increase the vulnerability of the economy to downturns. The alternative hypothesis is that PE, with its operating capabilities, expertise in financial restructuring, and massive capital raised but not invested (“dry powder”), could increase the resilience of PE‐backed companies. In their study of PE‐backed buyouts in the U.K.—which requires and thereby makes accessible more information about private companies than, say, in the U.S.—the authors report finding that, during the 2008 global financial crisis, PE‐backed companies decreased their overall investments significantly less than comparable, non‐PE firms. Moreover, such PE‐backed firms also experienced greater equity and debt inflows, higher asset growth, and increased market share. These effects were especially notable among smaller, riskier PE‐backed firms with less access to capital, and also for those firms backed by PE firms with more dry powder at the crisis onset. In a survey of the partners and staff of some 750 PE firms, the authors also present compelling evidence that PEs firms play active financial and operating roles in preserving or restoring the profitability and value of their portfolio companies.     

金融危机下的小企业融资

一场国际金融危机,使得小企业融资难的问题再次成为社会关注的焦点。这不仅因为长期以来,小企业群体的社会价值与其融资需求的满足程度极不对称,还在于在当前这样一个宏观经济形势下,小企业融资矛盾的解决关乎小企业的生存发展,更关乎经济繁荣、社会稳定的方方面面。那么,是什么阻滞了这一问题的有效解决,缺政策还是缺机构?缺资金还是缺机制?是否可以在解决小企业融资难题中获得一个多赢的答案?本期特别关注栏目,着眼金融危机下的小企业生存状态,通过对一些商业银行实践的考察为读者提供一些解决问题的选择。     

Decisions Made by the Controlling Shareholder Under Financial Crisis

We employ a sample of 12,200 observations from 2,321 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China between 2005 and 2013 to test five hypotheses. The empirical results show that the cost of tunneling and ownership structure play important roles in restraining incentives to expropriate firms. Financial crisis will reinforce the incentive to propping rather than tunneling with higher ownership concentration. Moreover, controlling shareholders of state-owned enterprises show a stronger motivation to prop up during crisis periods than do those of non-state-owned enterprises. The results indicate that both an entrenchment effect and a convergence-of-interest effect actually exist and vary according to ownership structure and macroeconomic circumstances.     

金融危机下的典当业：“危”与“机”并存

一提起典当,人们的头脑中就会浮现出一幅场景:高高的柜台,苛刻的账房先生,超低的价格、穷人失望的表情,似乎典当天生和走投无路,剥削、欺诈等相连.     

我国个人住房贷款业务的风险与防范

近年来，各商业银行纷纷加大对个人住房贷款的投入力度，导致该领域竞争日趋激烈。截止2001年6月，四大国有商业银行的个人住房贷款余额突破4000亿元，占全部信贷余额的比重由1998年末的0．91％上升到6．56％，信贷规模的年均扩张速度超过130％。     

小额贷款公司经营风险及防范

近年来,小额贷款公司迅速发展,已成为金融体系的重要组成部分,成为民间资本进入金融领域的一条重要通道。但是,蜂拥而起的小额贷款公司在发展中却出现了良莠不齐。本文详细地分析了目前小额贷款公司面临的经营风险,并提出针对性的防范对策。     

实证分析:房贷风险与金融生态

近几年我国房地产市场快速发展，已成为拉动经济增长的重要因素。各金融机构也把房地产信贷业务作为新的利润增长点，但随着投资的不断增长，房地产市场繁荣背后的金融风险逐渐显现。在可持续发展的前提下研究房地产信贷风险与城市金融环境的辩证关系，引导房地产市场的健康发展，防范信贷风险，对实现地方经济发展与金融运行的良性互动具有重要的指导意义。吉林省松原市人民银行对本市房贷风险与金融生态环境所做的实证分析就是一个有益的尝试。     

再保险业务组合风险的实证分析

为了充分反映再保险业务线之间的相依性结构以及由此而产生的风险分散化效应,本文用完全正相关假设及学生t联接函数的3种形式来评估一个再保险组合的风险价值(VaR)和尾部条件预期(TCE),认为联接函数的选择对多业务线保险公司的资本需求和分散性效应都有明显影响。学生t类联接函数能够灵活反映多业务线之间相依性的联接函数,随着自由度的变化,可以模拟损失分布之间的不同相依性结构。     

Urbanity,Financial Crisis and the Timing of Homebuying Decisions by Young Households

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Large urban areas have a high appeal to young households, particularly highly educated ones, as they offer higher wages, more job opportunities...     

Small Business and the Value of Community Financial Institutions

This paper examines whether community banks have a niche in the production of soft information when lending to small firms. A composite measure of soft information production is created from owner ratings of bank performance characteristics using survey data from a national sample of U.S. small firms. These characteristics capture some important aspects of soft information such as the bank’s knowledge of the owner’s business. This composite measure is related to the size of the owner’s primary bank, a measure of the intensity of market competition and proxies for the strength of banking relationships. After controlling for several sources of endogeneity, this composite measure is found to be significantly higher if the owner currently banks at a CFI and experiences less loan officer turnover.     

金融危机与经济波动特征事实:中美两国比较

本文对金融危机前后(2006~2009年)中美两国经济指标的波动性和协动性进行系统比较,发现两国的宏观经济波动特征有显著差异。这种差异有些属于金融危机期间的非常规现象,有些与中国特殊的调控措施、经济发展模式有关。就上述差异的理解对于分析宏观经济形势、制定宏观调控政策都是非常有帮助的。     

Systemic Risk,Financial Crisis,and Credit Risk Insurance

Differing from conventional insurance firms whose underwriting business does not contribute to systemic risk, credit risk insurance companies providing credit protections for debt obligations are exposed to systemic risk. We show that credit risk insurers (CRIs) underperformed conventional insurance companies during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and such underperformance is attributed to the greater systemic risk of CRIs. We also find that the credit spreads of insured bonds increase significantly after their insurers are downgraded or put in the negative watch list. We control for alternative factors affecting bond credit spreads and the result is robust.     

企业增长与财务危机关系研究——基于电信与计算机行业上市公司的实证证据

本文在界定企业超速成长、财务危机的基础上,运用可持续增长财务理论,分析了超速增长对财务危机的影响机制。研究发现,企业超速增长显著地增大了企业发生财务危机的概率,并且超速增长率与财务危机发生概率显著正相关;而非超速增长的实际增长率与财务危机概率无显著相关性。从而验证了本文的理论假说,即企业的增长不一定带来企业价值的同步增长;企业的资源及其使用效率内在地决定了企业增长速度;组织管理的动态调整速度及有效供给程度对企业超速增长的财务危机效应具有重要影响。