MODELS OF REGIONAL GROWTH: PAST,PRESENT AND FUTURE

Abstract This paper presents an overview of various models of regional growth that have appeared in the literature in the last 40 years. It considers the past, and therefore supply‐side models, such as the standard neoclassical, juxtaposed against essentially demand‐side approaches such as the export‐base and cumulative causation models (as integrated into the Kaldorian approach); before moving on to the ‘present’ and more recent versions of the neoclassical model involving spatial weights and ‘convergence clubs’, as well as new economic geography core–periphery models, and the ‘innovation systems’ approach. A key feature of the more recent literature is an attempt to explicitly include spatial factors into the model, and thus there is a renewed emphasis on agglomeration economies and spillovers. Discussing ‘present’ and ‘future’ approaches to regional growth overlaps with the current emphasis in the literature on the importance of more intangible factors such as the role of ‘knowledge’ and its influence on growth. Finally, there is a discussion of the greater emphasis that needs to be placed at the ‘micro‐level’ when considering what drives growth, and thus factors such as inter alia firm heterogeneity, entrepreneurship and absorptive capacity.     

Economic Determinants of Multiple Accounting Method Choices in a Swiss Context

This article investigates economic determinants that may affect multiple accounting method choices made by Swiss listed companies. It intends to make a contribution to the accounting choice literature for at least four reasons. This is, to our knowledge, the first study to investigate the economic determinants of Swiss accounting method choices. Second, Swiss firms provide an interesting sample for testing accounting method choices because they can choose from a much wider range of accounting methods than their American counterparts. Third, this study examines the balance sheet effect as well as the income statement effect. Lastly, multiple accounting methods are used instead of individual choices. The empirical results exhibit that income‐accelerating accounting method choices is positively associated with the recourse to bank and private loans, the extent of assets specificity and the ownership dilution of the firm and negatively with labour force. Additionally, firms that select leverage‐ratios decreasing accounting methods, make higher recourse to debt and especially bank loans to finance their activities and exhibit a higher proportion of specific assets than other corporations. Overall, this result suggests that in a Swiss context, managers may select accounting methods to decrease both debt and political costs as well as to increase their own compensation to some extent.     

QUALITATIVE AND MIXED‐METHODS RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS: SURPRISING GROWTH,PROMISING FUTURE

Qualitative research in economics has traditionally been unimportant compared to quantitative work. Yet there has been a small explosion in use of quantitative approaches in the past 10–15 years, including ‘mixed‐methods’ projects which use qualitative and quantitative methods in combination. This paper surveys the growing use of qualitative methods in economics and closely related fields, aiming to provide economists with a useful roadmap through major sets of qualitative methods and how and why they are used. We review the growing body of economic research using qualitative approaches, emphasizing the gains from using qualitative‐ or mixed‐methods over traditional ‘closed‐ended’ approaches. It is argued that, although qualitative methods are often portrayed as less reliable, less accurate, less powerful and/or less credible than quantitative methods, in fact, the two sets of methods have their own strengths, and how much can be learned from one type of method or the other depends on specific issues that arise in studying the topic of interest. The central message of the paper is that well‐done qualitative work can provide scientifically valuable and intellectually helpful ways of adding to the stock of economic knowledge, especially when applied to research questions for which they are well suited.     

THE ECONOMICS OF COUNTERTERRORISM: A SURVEY

We provide a review of theoretical and empirical contributions on the economic analysis of terrorism and counterterrorism. We argue that simple rational‐choice models of terrorist behavior – in the form of cost‐benefit models – already provide a well‐founded theoretical framework for the study of terrorism and counterterrorism. We also hint at their limitations which relate to the failure of accounting for the dynamics between terrorism and counterterrorism that may produce unintended second‐order effects as well as for the costs associated with counterterrorism and its international dimension. We reevaluate previously proposed counterterrorism strategies accordingly. Finally, in the light of our findings, we discuss interesting areas of future research.     

Corporate responsibility activities and economic performance: a theory of why and how they are connected

Whether a firm undertakes corporate responsibility (CR) activities for strategic or altruistic reasons, it is important to understand the relationship between such activities and economic performance. CR activities may be distinguished based on which combination of three possible outputs – learning, reputation and CR outcomes – they produce. This distinction matters not only for the ultimate environmental and social sustainability but also for the relationship between CR activities and economic performance. Taking advantage of this distinction, an integrative synthesis of knowledge of the relationship between CR activities and economic performance can be developed that presents the relationship in terms of a dynamic, case‐specific, inverted U‐shaped efficiency frontier and the vertical distance from this frontier. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN EAST ASIA: FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF SPATIAL ECONOMICS

This paper examines the recent evolution of regional integration in East Asia, and discusses the prospects and tasks of further integration. After an overview of the globalization and regional integration trend in EU, NAFTA and East Asia during the past half-century, we introduce the basic framework of spatial economics, often called the new economic geography. In terms of globalization and regional integration, it is important to examine the general effects of decreasing transport costs (broadly defined) on spatial distribution of economic activities. Given this theoretical framework, we examine the changing economic interdependency within East Asia, as well as that between East Asia and the rest of the world over the last three decades. Next, we focus on regional diversity and disparity in East Asia. Finally, we compare the regional integration in EU with that of East Asia, and examine the tasks and prospects of further promotion of East Asian integration.     

The Potential Environmental Benefits of Co‐Operative Businesses Within the Climate Change Agenda

The economic benefits of agricultural co‐operatives are well rehearsed and have received significant attention in the literature, especially in regard to the resource efficiencies flowing from collective action that might be absent from investor‐owned firms. This article provides evidence to show how these resource efficiencies might also manifest themselves as environmental advantages, which may not be available through investor‐owned firms due to the different purpose of, and motivation for, business activity. Specifically, the article explores how co‐operative businesses may deliver climate change benefits by examining case studies of alternative co‐operative functions that provide a mix of qualitative and quantitative evidence. Results show that, where co‐operative businesses achieve efficiencies through economies of scale, knowledge and skills transfer, sharing of risks and other means, this can also lead to coincidental reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that may not be achieved if investor‐owned activity prevails. Whilst coincidental at present, the future exploitation of this phenomenon could lead to valuable market advantage or aid sustainable development policy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

State Rescaling in Non‐Western Contexts

State rescaling is the subject of a continuously growing literature that provides valuable insights into our current understandings of globalization, the spatiality of the capitalist state and urban and regional development. There have been, however, growing concerns about the wider applicability of this literature. Since the bulk of state rescaling studies have focused on North American and European examples, the existing literature is limited in its conceptualization of the diverse and concrete ways in which the spatial and scalar restructuring of capitalist states takes place in different historical, political and social contexts beyond North America and Western Europe. This symposium provides the literature with a valuable opportunity to transcend this limitation. The articles in this collection discuss the processes of state rescaling in non‐Western countries such as Japan, Korea, Brazil and Turkey. By providing detailed explanations of state rescaling and the associated politico‐economic processes in non‐Western countries and regions, they not only show that state‐rescaling literature is more widely applicable and meaningful beyond Western politico‐economic contexts, but also point out what is missing in the existing corpus.     

关于地方政府促进区域经济发展的意义和方法分析

我国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,虽然目前的经济发展已经达到小康社会标准并且正在向发达国家的水平线靠近,但是由于区域经济发展失衡,导致国家对于不同的地区要制定不同的执行方案。地方政府是促进区域经济发展的首要因素,对我国的区域经济发展起到了决定性的作用。论文根据地方政府对本地区经济发展所采取的方法,分析了地方政府促进区域经济发展的意义,以便采取有效的措施推动区域经济良性发展。     

Non‐Fundamentalness in Structural Econometric Models: A Review

Current economic theory typically assumes that all the macroeconomic variables belonging to a given economy are driven by a small number of structural shocks. As recently argued, apart from negligible cases, the structural shocks can be recovered if the information set contains current and past values of a large, potentially infinite, set of macroeconomic variables. However, the usual practice of estimating small size causal Vector AutoRegressions can be extremely misleading as in many cases such models could fully recover the structural shocks only if future values of the few variables considered were observable. In other words, the structural shocks may be non‐fundamental with respect to the small dimensional vector used in current macroeconomic practice. By reviewing a recent strand of econometric literature, we show that, as a solution, econometricians should enlarge the space of observations, and thus consider models able to handle very large panels of related time series. Among several alternatives, we review dynamic factor models together with their economic interpretation, and we show how non‐fundamentalness is non‐generic in this framework. Finally, using a factor model, we provide new empirical evidence on the effect of technology shocks on labour productivity and hours worked.     

Economic transition and growth

Some extensions of neoclassical growth models are discussed that allow for cross‐section heterogeneity among economies and evolution in rates of technological progress over time. The models offer a spectrum of transitional behavior among economies that includes convergence to a common steady‐state path as well as various forms of transitional divergence and convergence. Mechanisms for modeling such transitions, measuring them econometrically, assessing group behavior and selecting subgroups are developed in the paper. Some econometric issues with the commonly used augmented Solow regressions are pointed out, including problems of endogeneity and omitted variable bias which arise under conditions of transitional heterogeneity. Alternative regression methods for analyzing economic transition are given which lead to a new test of the convergence hypothesis and a new procedure for detecting club convergence clusters. Transition curves for individual economies and subgroups of economies are estimated in a series of empirical applications of the methods to regional US data, OECD data and Penn World Table data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles

Factor models have become useful tools for studying international business cycles. Block factor models can be especially useful as the zero restrictions on the loadings of some factors may provide some economic interpretation of the factors. These models, however, require the econometrician to predefine the blocks, leading to potential misspecification. In Monte Carlo experiments, we show that even a small misspecification can lead to substantial declines in fit. We propose an alternative model in which the blocks are chosen endogenously. The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework using a hierarchical prior, which allows us to incorporate series‐level covariates that may influence and explain how the series are grouped. Using international business cycle data, we find our country clusters differ in important ways from those identified by geography alone. In particular, we find that similarities in institutions (e.g., legal systems, language diversity) may be just as important as physical proximity for analyzing business cycle comovements.     

Predicting Major Economic Events with Accuracy: A New Framework for Scientific Macroeconomic Models

Despite intense studies over the last several hundred years, the questions about causes, forecasting, and prevention of economic crises remain unsolved. The poor performance of macroeconomic models during the Great Recession of 2008 has forced many economists to reexamine macroeconomic theories and search for credible alternatives to the agent‐based and general‐equilibrium models now currently used by most economists. This article derives a new category of macroeconomic model and applies it conceptually to explain the causes of economic crises. This model, known as the indeterministic balance sheet plus (IBS+) model, is a special breed of accounting models. It takes an indeterministic view of future balance sheets. This article proposes a classification of causes of economic crises using IBS+ models to analyze balance sheets of key economic sectors. Most economic crises are caused by mismanagement of balance sheets by key economic players, not by any fundamental flaw of capitalism. The frequency of economic crises can be minimized by proper risk management practices, but economic crises can never be completely eliminated. Historically, treating mismanagement of balance sheets as the main cause of economic crises is a generalization of Austrian business cycle theory, Fisher's debt deflation theory, and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis.     

THE MULTIDIMENSIONAL EFFECTS OF RELIGION ON SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Religion plays a fundamental role in most people's lives with profound implications for socioeconomic development. This survey provides a comprehensive and systematic overview of the causal mechanisms between religion and development discussed and tested in the economics literature, and reviews quantitative empirical evidence on the actual effects of religion on economic and social dimensions of development. We start by disaggregating the concept of religion into four religious dimensions and propose a framework to conceptualize causal mechanisms. Numerous mechanisms are possible but only a few uncontested findings exist. Religion is ambivalent vis‐à‐vis development: although religious ideas can foster certain forms of human capital acquisition and labor market participation, scholars have found a negative relationship between religious dimensions and both income and gender equality as well as innovation activities. Religious identity is also a source of labor market discrimination and has ambivalent effects on economic growth and social cohesion. Methodological challenges refer to the availability of fine‐grained data, especially for developing countries, the use of concepts and definitions, and the lack of causal inference.     

SPATIAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM AND THE TRANSPORT SECTOR: A TRADE‐CONSISTENT SCGE MODEL

In spatial computable general equilibrium models, interregional trade ought to play an important role in determining the spatial price equilibrium. Although the Armington assumption is commonly employed to describe cross‐hauling, many of the existing models do not explicitly consider the behavior of transport firms. This paper presents a framework that is compatible with the Armington assumption and explicitly considers transport activities. In the model, the trade coefficient takes the form of a potential function, and the equilibrium market price becomes similar to the price index in the context of new economic geography. The features of the model are investigated by using the minimal setting, which comprises two nontransport sectors and three regions. Because transport costs are given exogenously, the commodity prices are determined relative to them. The model can be described as a system of homogeneous equations, where an output in one region can arbitrarily be determined similarly as a price in the Walrasian equilibrium.     

ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF A PORT SHUTDOWN: THE SPECIAL ROLE OF RESILIENCE

This paper develops a methodology for the estimation of the total economic consequences of a seaport disruption, factoring in the major types of resilience. The foundation of the methodology is a combination of demand-driven and supply-driven input–output analyses. Resilience is included through a series of ad hoc adjustments based on various formal models and expert judgment. Moreover, we have designed the methodology in a manner that overcomes the major shortcomings of the supply-driven approach. We apply the methodology to a 90-day disruption at the twin seaports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, which is a major port area that includes a petrochemical manufacturing complex. We find that regional gross output could decline by as much as $13 billion at the port region level, but that resilience can reduce these impacts by nearly 70%.     

Non‐Economic Factors in Economic Geography and in ‘New Regionalism’: A Sympathetic Critique

In the current debate on local and regional development and after several ‘turns’, dominant critical models have found some security in institutional, cultural and evolutionary approaches. Interest today centres on success and competitiveness and how they are reproduced in a few paradigmatic regions. A distinctive feature of these regions and places is the embeddedness of certain non‐economic factors such as social capital, trust and reciprocity based on familiarity, face‐to‐face exchange, cooperation, embedded routines, habits and norms, local conventions of communication and interaction, all of which contribute to a region’s particular success. Although these approaches may not deny the forces of the capitalist space economy, they do not explicitly acknowledge them or take them on board and so they tend to discuss non‐economic factors and institutions as autonomous forces shaping development. This essay provides a critique of these concepts based on their (1) inadequate theorization, (2) depoliticized view of politics and de‐economized use of economics and (3) reduction of space to territory. The essay concludes that we need a far more penetrating renewal of radical critique of the current space economy of capitalism. Old concepts such as uneven development, the social and spatial division of labour, the geographical transfer of value, accumulation and imperialism must be combined with cultural and institutional issues, with those non‐economic factors mentioned above.     

Strategizing Environmental Policy and Compliance for Firm Economic Sustainability: Evidence from Taiwanese Electronics Firms

This study aims to examine whether the compliance of environmental policies can sustain firm economic performance, and whether a timing issue is relevant to firm economic sustainability in pursuit of eco‐friendly efforts. Offering models predominantly based on the institutional theory, this study tests hypotheses using data from 284 companies in the electronics sector in Taiwan during the period from 1997 to 2010. The findings reveal that the execution of environment policies mostly improves firm economic sustainability and some joint green efforts can even strengthen such sustainability; however, firms aiming to sustain their economic performance should not hasten to undertake eco‐friendly efforts, implying that first movers may not be guaranteed firm economic performance. Thus, managers should carefully strategize their green efforts to comply with environmental policies, and execute them in due course to prevent disadvantages, such as market uncertainty and complexity of green practices, while conquering organizational inertia. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Semiparametric Bayesian inference for dynamic Tobit panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity

This paper develops semiparametric Bayesian methods for inference of dynamic Tobit panel data models. Our approach requires that the conditional mean dependence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the initial conditions and the strictly exogenous variables be specified. Important quantities of economic interest such as the average partial effect and average transition probabilities can be readily obtained as a by‐product of the Markov chain Monte Carlo run. We apply our method to study female labor supply using a panel data set from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification and Estimation of Club Convergence Models with Spatial Dependence

This article deals with heterogeneity and spatial dependence in economic growth analysis by developing a two‐stage strategy that identifies clubs by a mapping analysis and estimates a club convergence model with spatial dependence. Since estimation of this class of convergence models in the presence of regional heterogeneity poses both identification and collinearity problems, we develop an entropy‐based estimation procedure that simultaneously takes account of ill‐posed and ill‐conditioned inference problems. The two‐step strategy is applied to assess the existence of club convergence and to estimate a two‐club spatial convergence model across Italian regions over the period 1970 to 2000.