现金股利政策综述——基于代理理论和信号理论的视角

股利分配政策是国内外学者研究公司理财时重点关注的内容。代理理论和信号理论是现在解释股利政策的主流理论,所以,本文拟基于代理理论和信号理论,对现金股利政策研究进行梳理,旨在为进一步的研究奠定基础。     

半强制分红政策、再融资动机与经典股利理论——基于股利代理理论与信号理论视角的实证研究

本文实证检验了中国独特的半强制分红政策对有再融资动机的上市公司分红行为的影响,并进一步考察了半强制分红政策背景下股利代理理论和信号理论这两种经典股利理论的解释力。研究发现:(1)半强制分红政策显著提高了有再融资动机的上市公司的派现意愿和派现水平;(2)上市公司派现可以有效降低两类代理成本,而现金股利变动(尤其是现金股利增加)则可以有效传递公司未来盈利变动的信号;(3)相比而言,有再融资动机的上市公司通过派现降低两类代理成本、发送股利信号的作用显著更弱。可见,虽然股利代理理论和信号理论总体上能够解释中国上市公司分红行为,但在半强制分红政策背景下,有再融资动机的上市公司分红行为受到了明显干预,这使得两种经典股利理论的解释力有所削弱。     

国外股息税改革的理论基础与实践经验

全球第四次税收改革浪潮的核心内容是将投资者个人所得税与公司所得税整合.作为投资者税收的重要组成部分,股息税成为各国税收改革重点关注的对象.纵观学术史,有关股息税经济作用的论述主要分为三种观点:传统观、税收无关观以及税收资本化观.这三种理论观点对现实税收政策是否废止股息税或者将公司所得税与股息税合二为一各有主张.本文回顾了有关股息税的理论观点、相关实证检验以及世界主要国家的股息税改革经验,最后提出了针对中国股息税改革的建议.     

Dividend Irrelevance and Accounting Models of Value

In accounting models of value, dividends typically appear to have a strong positive relationship with value despite theoretical reasons to expect dividend displacement. We show that this result is driven by the relationship between dividends and both core earnings and other information derived from the valuation error in the prior year. Where core earnings can be effectively modelled in a specification including other information, dividend displacement is no longer rejected. Under these circumstances dividends exhibit weak incremental predictive power for earnings and earnings expectations and hence have little impact on value. We show that valuation models are sensitive to model specification and should be used with caution when testing the value impact of firm characteristics or accounting numbers.     

Dilution,Dividend Commitments and Liquidity: Do Dividend Changes Reflect Information Signaling?

We develop new tests of the dividend signaling hypothesis by focusing on the role of liquidity. We allow for two different types of signaling models: one where current dividends signal firm value and the objective is to prevent current dilution, and the other where commitments to future dividends constitute the signal. We find that the results differ by the sign of the dividend surprise. Signaling models of the commitment type explain the market reaction to negative dividend surprises. Interestingly, this result is significant only for the earlier sub-period in our sample due, perhaps, to the well-documented increase in institutional investors with longer horizons. The market reaction to positive dividend surprises, on the other hand, is shown to be consistent with the over-investment and wealth transfer hypotheses. We show that the failure of the signaling model for these firms could be due to lower costs of dividend increases.     

REIT Splits and Dividend Changes: Tests of Signaling and Information Substitutability

Recent work on stock splits have attempted to relate the information value associated with splits with that from dividends signaling. This paper extends this genre of research by evaluating the issue of dividend predictability using REIT data where the self-selection issue associated with dividend payment is minimized. The use of REIT data also eliminates the “differential expectations” effect for non-dividend paying firms, thus rendering a more robust test of the information substitutability hypothesis postulated by Nayak and Prabhala (2001). To the extent that stock splits are signals of future cash flows, we further examine the question of leverage predictability associated with REIT splits, particularly for highly levered firms. We find that REITs that use dividend changes as a signaling mechanism prior to splits have smaller price responses to the private information revealed by splits than those that do not provide such signals, consistent with the notion that dividends and splits are indeed information substitutes. Further, REIT splits provide useful information about future dividend and leverage changes.     

Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips

Many leading asset pricing models are specified so that the term structure of dividend volatility is either flat or upward sloping. These models predict that the term structures of expected returns and volatilities on dividend strips (i.e., claims to dividends paid over a prespecified interval) are also upward sloping. However, the empirical evidence suggests otherwise. This discrepancy can be reconciled if these models replace their proposed dividend dynamics with processes that generate stationary leverage ratios. Under such policies, shareholders are forced to divest (invest) when leverage is low (high), which shifts risk from long‐ to short‐horizon dividend strips.     

理论比率模型与股票价值评估

本文以回收期模型为基础,探讨相对价值评估三大比率的理论模型,即理论市盈率、理论市净率和理论市销率模型。至今为止三大比率主要应用于相对价值评估,理论比率模型的建立连通了相对价值评估与绝对价值评估,有利于克服相对价值评估的主观随意问题,也有利于解决合理比率的标准确定和股市泡沫判断问题。     

内容教学法实施的条件和适用范围研究

以内容教学法相关理论为依据,深入分析影响内容教学法实施的因素。确定了内容教学法实施的五个前提条件：教师语言素质、教师内容素质、学生语言素质、学生内容素质和课程教学目标。并以这五个前提条件为尺度重新衡量我国外语教学现状,从而确定内容教学法在我国现阶段的适用范围。     

Survey and Market-based Evidence of Industry-dependence in Analysts' Preferences Between the Dividend Yield and Price-earnings Ratio Valuation Models

Prior research has shown that analysts' preferred valuation models are the price-earnings (PE) ratio and the dividend yield. This paper presents strong evidence that the relative importance of these two models varies according to stock market sector. Companies in the services, industrials and consumer goods sectors are shown to be 'PE-valued' while financials and utilities companies are shown to be 'yield-valued'. These findings are derived from survey research and then tested in a market-based model. This use of independent, mutually reinforcing research methods contributes to the robustness of the findings.     

保险监管模式国际比较及借鉴

对世界三大地区及国际的保险监管模式,分别是美国的RBC模式、欧盟的SolvencyⅡ模式、瑞士的SST模式以及国际监管ISIA模式进行总结与比较,在分析国际保险监管制度特点及发展趋势的基础上,针对我国保险监管中实际存在的问题,探讨建立和完善"具有中国特色"的保险监管制度,以促进我国保险市场的健康和可持续发展。     

违约损失率模型开发的理论分析和实证研究

本文针对LGD模型开发中的核心问题进行了理论研究和实证分析,根据中国银行业的实际,建立在清收基础上的历史平均LGD是一种较为实用的方法,根据这一方法论,本文运用决策树建立了LGD模型,模型不仅考虑了回收成本的因素,而且考虑了时间因素。本文的实证研究结果表明,不同抵押的债项的LGD与新资本协议确定的参数基本接近,总体上来看,时间因素对于LGD的影响要较回收成本的高。若不考虑回收成本,LGD的估值要低约1%;而忽略时间价值,LGD估值要低约7%。分析LGD的影响因素发现:除债务类型、行业及信用评级等因素对LGD有较大影响外,区域因素的影响不可忽视,建立LGD模型时有必要加以考虑。