US oil consumption,oil prices,and the macroeconomy

Since the oil price shock of 1973–74, researchers have waged an intense debate regarding the connection between the U.S. energy sector and national income. Studies examining the relationship between oil prices, oil consumption, and real output have produced remarkably mixed results. In particular, the two most widely cited investigations by Darby and Hamilton come to dramatically different conclusions concerning the effect of oil shocks on economic activity. To date, however, studies of this issue have been either correlation based and thus void of causality inferences, have used overly restrictive bivariate causality techniques, or covered periods that exclude major oil price disruptions. This paper analyzes a quarterly multivariate VAR model to investigate the existence and direction of causality between oil prices, oil consumption, real output, and several other key macroeconomic policy variables. Among the key findings is that oil price shocks are not a major cause of U.S. business cycles. Moreover, our findings also suggest that both oil prices and real output cause significant changes in oil consumption without feedback. These results support the contention that a systematic U.S. conservation policy would not significantly impair real economic activity.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ILLEGAL DRUG PRICES AT THE RETAIL USER AND SELLER LEVELS

This article uses 1985–2000 DEA data on marijuana and cocaine prices in various metropolitan areas to empirically test two contrasting theories of the relationship between illegal drug prices at the retail seller and user levels. Regression results overwhelmingly reject a multiplicative model in which the ratio of prices at the two levels is constant, but strongly support an additive model in which the difference between these prices is constant. This finding reduces the attractiveness of policies aimed at raising wholesale prices, because retail price responses, and thus potential drug demand deterrence, would be substantially smaller than commonly assumed. (JEL D40 , I18 , K42 )     

PRICE DYNAMICS WITH CUSTOMER MARKETS

Using microdata from a U.S. retailer we document that customer turnover responds to pricing. We study the optimal price setting of a firm when its demand has an extensive margin that is elastic to price due to customers' opportunity to search for an alternative supplier. The price pass‐through of idiosyncratic productivity shocks is incomplete, with the most productive firms passing through more. Firm demand is more persistent than price. Higher demand is associated with lower markups due to higher search intensity, despite flexible prices. We find empirical support for these predictions in microdata from the retail industry.     

Relative price variability and inflation: The Italian evidence

Using Italian data from 1954 to 1983, it is found that relative price variability and inflation are positively correlated only during the 1970s and the early 1980s, when their relationship appears to be largely induced by movements in the oil price, rather than by aggregate demand shocks. This result is consistent with the findings of Fischer, 1981, Fischer, 1982 for the U.S. and Germany (although, in contrast to the evidence for these two countries, no relationship can be detected between unexpected inflation and relative price variability). Furthermore, the comparison between the three countries provides substantial support for the hypothesis — tentatively advanced by Fischer (1982) — that the correlation between relative price variability and inflation is enhanced by monetary accommodation of real shocks. There is also evidence that in Italy both variables have been considerably affected by exchange rate movements.     

LIMITING U.S. OIL IMPORTS: COST ESTIMATES

The Energy Modeling Forum recently compared ten world oil models. This paper examines the costs of curtailing growth in U.S. oil imports based upon the supply and demand responses to price in six of these models. The analysis estimates direct resource costs over the 1989–2010 period from U.S. results for aflat and a rising price case spanning an $18 per barrel difference by the year 2000 and beyond. To provide a balanced perspective, the paper also includes estimates of some potential benefits from import-reduction policies. These benefits include smaller wealth transfers during a disruption and lower oil prices without disruptions. While keeping future oil imports at today's level appears to be quite costly, the results here indicate that less aggressive import-reduction programs offer some opportunity for economic gain.     

U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices

This paper empirically investigates and provides further support for the oil price effect documented in Driesprong et al. (2008) in the U.S. industry-level returns. We find that oil price predictability is concentrated in a relatively small number of industry-level returns, the relevant measure for a study of the oil effect is percentage change in oil spot prices, and changes in oil futures prices have virtually no prediction power for industry-level returns. With percentage changes in oil spot prices as the predictor, approximately one fifth of industry returns are oil-predictable. We detect a two trading weeks delay in reaction to oil price changes which is consistent with the Hong and Stein (1996) underreaction hypothesis. These results are robust to various alternative specifications, and are shown to be unrelated to time-varying risk premia. Moreover, we demonstrate that trading strategies based on the oil effect generate superior gains in comparison with buy-and-hold strategy in the presence of reasonable trading costs.     

Refinery mix in the U.S., Canada,and the E.E.C.

This paper examines the response of gasoline's share of a barrel of crude oil to changes in relative petroleum product prices. An inter-country comparison of the U.S., Canada, and the E.E.C. allows investigation of different parts of the production possibility frontier. In the U.S. and Canada, with relatively large amounts of cracking capacity, there is price responsiveness of the product mix to changes in relative product prices. In the U.S., both residual and distillates are substitutes in production for gasoline, but for Canada, only distillate is a substitute. Part of this difference is attributed to the U.S. oil quota. For the E.E.C. with relatively small amounts of cracking capacity there was no discernible effect of product prices on product mix.     

Oil supply and economic development strategy: A dynamic planning approach

Most oligopolistic models of the oil market begin with the assumption of rising supply curves for oil. Lack of convincing evidence that high oil prices are being maintained by oligopolistic action has raised the possibility of competitive behavior in the oil market and therefore of a backward bending supply curve. This paper presents numerical solutions of a linear dynamic planning model of an oil exporting country with a development strategy which consists of utilizing oil revenues for building an export sector to replace oil. To make a stronger case a high absorber, Algeria, is used as an example. The numerical results are consistent with the hypothesis that there may well be good economic reasons to restrict supply of oil in response to increased prices. Three important characteristics of the model which produce this result are (a) diminishing marginal utility of consumption, (b) absorptive capacity, and (c) imperfect capital markets. A ‘perverse’ supply behavior is found consistent with optimal allocation of oil resources when a price increase is expected to last for a long time. The effects of temporary price changes which can, for example, result from temporary supply shocks or demand changes during the business cycle are also studied. It is shown that in response to such short term price changes competitive behavior is ‘normal’, i.e., supply varies in the same direction as the price. This implies that reductions in OPEC production which have taken place during the recent market downturns cannot be taken as evidence of cartel coordination, as they usually are, since they are also consistent with price-taking behavior.     

RIGID PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. SCANNER DATA

This article uses weekly scanner data from two small U.S. cities to characterize time and state dependence of grocers' pricing decisions. In these data, the probability of a nominal adjustment declines with the time since the last price change. A store's price for a particular product typically goes through several price changes in rapid succession before settling down. We also detect state dependence: The probability of a nominal adjustment is highest when a store's price substantially differs from the average of other stores' prices. However, extreme relative prices typically reflect the store's recent changes instead of changes in average prices.     

THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET*

It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long‐run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry‐specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks that emphasize the reduction in domestic final demand.     

Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011

Movement in China's money supply is shown to drive the movement in world money supply over the last fifteen years. Structural shocks to G3 (U.S., Eurozone and Japan) real M2 and to China's real M2 are both large over 1996:1–2011:12. The cumulative impact of real G3 M2 shocks on real oil prices is small and statistically insignificant. In contrast, the cumulative impact of China's real M2 on the real price of crude oil is large and statistically significant. Following a sharp fall in real oil price in the last half of 2008, the cumulative impact of China's real M2 on the real price of crude oil is particularly substantial in the recovery of oil price during 2009 from a low of $41.68 for January 2009. The analysis sheds light on the causes of movement in oil prices over the last fifteen years and in assessing the relative importance of China in the upsurge of the real price of crude oil.     

The Law of One Price: A Canada/U.S. exploration

The paper examines whether arbitrage tends to equalize commodity prices for internationally traded homogenous products. It also investigates whether the increasing integration of North American markets has reduced price differences over time, and tests the validity of the so-called Law of One Price. We find that price differences for homogenous tradables between Canada and the U.S. are smaller than those for differentiated tradables and non-tradables, and are statistically insignificant over the period 1985 to 1999. We find no support for the notion that the increasing integration of North American markets due to trade liberalization has reduced price differences between Canada and the United States. Instead, the shifts in the price differences (expressed in the same currency) generally reflected fluctuations in the exchange rate. Canadian prices adapt with a lag to U.S. price changes that are brought about by changes in the exchange rate.     

Imbalances over the Pacific

This paper examines various theories of current account (trade) imbalances between the U.S. and China, by estimating a structural VAR model with long-run zero restrictions. The factors that we examine include: productivity differential, fiscal policy, consumption/saving choice, and real and nominal demand side factors comprising monetary policy, and reserve accumulation. On average, technology shocks are found to play a dominant role in explaining the trade balance movement between China and the U.S. However, in the particular period of 2004–07 when global imbalances peaked, we find that demand shocks played an unusually large role. This contrast between the average tendency and the rather abnormal development in the mid-2000s provides general equilibrium evidence for several theories of current account (trade) balance imbalance. But it also shows that the experience of the mid-2000s does not have to repeat itself, given that it was an atypical development different from the average tendency.     

A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge

The paper presents a model of housing and credit cycles featuring distorted beliefs and comovement and mutual reinforcement between house price expectations and price developments via credit expansion/contraction. Positive (negative) development in house prices fuels optimism (pessimism) and credit expansion (contraction), which in turn boost (dampen) housing demand and house prices and reinforce agents׳ optimism (pessimism). Bayesian learning about house prices can endogenously generate self-reinforcing booms and busts in house prices and significantly strengthen the role of collateral constraints in aggregate fluctuations. The model can quantitatively account for the 2001–2008 U.S. boom-bust cycle in house prices and associated household debt and consumption dynamics. It also demonstrates that allowing for imperfect knowledge of agents, a higher leveraged economy is more prone to self-reinforcing fluctuations.     

Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach

This paper investigates the presence of asymmetries in the short- and long-run relationships between the 5-year CDS index spreads at the U.S. industry level and a set of major macroeconomic and financial variables, namely the corresponding industry stock indices, the VIX index, the 5-year Treasury bond yield and the crude oil price, using the NARDL approach. The empirical results provide significant evidence of both short-run and long-run asymmetries in the linkage between ten industry CDS spreads and the potential driving factors common for all industries, confirming the importance of asymmetric nonlinearity in this context. It is also shown that the industry equity prices, the VIX, the 5-year Treasury bond rate and, to a lesser extent, the crude oil price constitute important asymmetric determinants of these U.S. industry CDS spreads. The findings of this study have relevant implications for investors, speculators, arbitrageurs and policy makers interested in credit risk at the industry level.     

Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the U.S.

This paper examines the effect of changes in the level and volatility of exchange rates on the demand for money. It hypothesizes that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative influence on money demand separate from the effect of the level of exchange rates. Using U.S. data covering the period from 1974.1 to 1990.4, it is found that, regardless of whether the adjustment process is modeled as an error-correction or a partial-adjustment model, exchange rate volatility is negatively related to the demand for real M2 balances. This relationship is found to be more pronounced when exchange rates are expressed in real terms. The results imply that money demand responds to both the volatility of domestic prices relative to foreign prices and to the volatility of nominal exchange rates. Little evidence is found in support of the hypothesis that the level of exchange rates exerts a significant influence on money demand.     

THE ECONOMIC COST OF U.S. OIL CONSERVATION

This article examines the costs of U.S. oil conservation by using parameters of five world oil models from a recent Energy Modeling Forum study. Variation in the estimated cost of oil conservation across the models suggests that achieving oil conservation through flexible policies that adjust to market conditions would better serve economic efficiency than would setting government-mandated levels of oil consumption. Additionally, net world oil conservation is likely to be somewhat less than gross U.S. conservation. U.S. oil conservation lowers the world oil price and stimulates non-U.S. oil consumption. Including the gains in non-U.S. oil consumption raises the estimated costs of achieving a given conservation level .     

Price transmission in the international skim milk powder markets

This article investigates the strength and the pattern of spatial price linkages in skimmed milk powder markets using monthly wholesale price data from three major producers and exporters (the U.S.A., the E.U., and Oceania) and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. The results suggest that prices in the three regions considered are linked with stable long-run relationships. The law of one price, however, does not hold. The dominant pattern of transmission in the long run is asymmetric involving positive price stocks to be transmitted with higher intensity compared to negative prices shocks; asymmetries in price transmission exist in the short run as well.     

Money and prices: U.S. Data 1869–1914 (A study with directed graphs)

This paper reconsiders empirical evidence on relationships among money, income, nominal prices, and wheat prices. Error correction and directed acyclic graphs are used to study both lagged and contemporaneous relations in late 19^th and early 20^th century U.S. data. We summarize evidence supporting the view that money was a causal actor in price movement in this period. In the long run (at a five year horizon), over twenty percent of the movement in price is explained by earlier movements in money supply; whereas, wheat price accounts for less than ten percent of this movement. There is also evidence that money supply was not exogenous, as it was determined, in contemporaneous time, by movements in the general price level and income. About forty percent of the variation in money is explained by current or lagged prices and income. There remains considerable uncertainty with respect to role of wheat prices in this period. Innovations in wheat price explain over twenty five percent of the uncertainty in real income at the five year forecast horizon – suggesting wheat price as either causal or proxying for more fundamental causal forces in the U.S. economy over our period of analysis. First version received: December 1999/Final version received: February 2001     

CREDIT,HOUSING COLLATERAL,AND CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN,THE U.K., AND THE U.S.

The consumption behavior of U.K., U.S., and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando‐Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral, and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for U.K. and U.S., but not Japanese, households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption‐to‐income ratio rose in the U.K. and U.S. as mortgage down‐payment constraints eased and as the collateral role of housing wealth was enhanced by financial innovations, such as home equity loans. The estimated housing collateral effect is similar in the U.S. and U.K. In Japan, land prices (which proxy house prices) continue to negatively impact consumer spending. There are negative real interest rate effects on consumption in the U.K. and U.S. and positive effects in Japan. Overall, this implies important differences in the transmission of monetary and credit shocks in Japan versus the U.S., U.K., and other credit‐liberalized economies.