Balance on unbalanced growth

Conclusions In his paper Baumol raised a number of important issues. Included are several knotty problems of an empirical nature: Can measures of outputs which we normally classify as services be reasonably divorced from measurement of the inputs of labor involved in their provision? Can commodities be satisfactorily divided into two classes: those for which the technology of production is inherently stagnant, and those for which technological progress is possible? It should be clear that in this paper no attempt has been made to address these or any other factual questions.What has been attempted is a demonstration that, on their own grounds, Baumol's rather pessimistic propositions about the behavior of an economy undergoing unbalanced productivity change can be balanced by rather more positive ones. Furthermore, those grounds have themselves been questioned: It has been argued that few normative implications can be drawn from the movement of relative prices, especially in the one-factor world used illustratively by Baumol, that a balanced expansion path is unlikely to be desired in such a world, and that little significance can be attached to changes in a real output index in this context. Finally, it has been shown that assuming a one-factor world results in hiding some of the important possibilities (for relative commodity and factor price behavior) under unbalanced growth. In particular, with not very unlikely sorts of factor complementarity, two of Baumol's propositions no longer hold.With 6 FiguresThe author is assistant professor of economics at Princeton University. He wishes to thank the Brookings Institution and the Ford Foundation for financial support which facilitated the writing of this paper, and to acknowledge helpful discussions with colleagues William J. Baumol, Richard R. Cornwall and Dennis E. Smallwood.     

Whither the Balance of Payments?

This article sets out the analytical framework of the 'new' approach to the balance of payments under the conditions of 'international financial laissez faire' characterised by financial deregulation, floating exchange rates, and high international capital mobility. It is argued that much of the reasoning underlying the new approach derives from the modus operandi of regional payments systems. The fundamental differences between the benchmark model of regional financing and the current international financial laissez faire are explored, and the extent to which the presence of exchange risk may interfere with the 'optimal' debt/borrowing processes posited by the new approach is discussed. The possibility of a transfer problem arising from Australia's rapid accumulation of short-term foreign debt is considered.
While developments in international banking, together with the liberalisation and globalisation of world securities markets, have considerably narrowed the differences between the new global financial environment and regional payments systems, the conclusion of the article is that there are substantial externalities in the international case which are intrinsic to the debt/borrowing process and which are likely to remain a source of continued policy concern.     

Balance Mechanics and Business Cycles

Abstract

Many mainstream business cycle theories were not able to cope with the financial crisis theoretically. With his concept of balance mechanics, the German economist Wolfgang Stützel developed a framework for comparing different theories of business cycles which helps to understand the reasons for this inadequacy. This paper works out Stützel’s considerations and his four “model cases” of cycles more systematically and shows how the theories of the business cycle Stützel mentioned are related to theories discussed today. Modern business cycle theories did not cover all “model cases” and therefore had a blind spot.     

Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment

Abstract
This article looks at the evolution of corporate balance sheets and investment over the past few years .
We find that many companies have significantly improved their balance sheets in this time. Leverage has been reduced, and this, coupled with lower nominal interest rates, has improved the interest cover and cash flows of the corporate sector. For many firms, the process of balance sheet repair has proceeded a long way so that the extent to which the financial position of firms will impinge on investment is much lower than it was a few years ago.
Looking further ahead, it appears that the rate of return to investing in capital is relatively high, at least when judged against the standards of earlier downturns. With the recovery picking up pace we should, therefore, see firms more inclined to expand their capital expenditure and less focused on financial restructuring.     

Manufacturing and the Trade Balance

When the world shifted to the regime of flexible exchange rates after 1970, economists expected that large trade imbalances would soon disappear. Instead, such imbalances not only persisted but soared in the 1980s and 1990s, in spite of significant changes in important currencies such as the yen, the mark and the dollar. This paper reports that manufacturing importers tend to suffer trade deficits whereas exporters of manufacturing products tend to enjoy trade surpluses. The reason lies in the higher rates of productivity growth experienced by exporters of manufactures.     

基于就业能力的无边界职业生涯平衡

随着经济和技术领域的快速发展,组织中的雇佣理念和雇佣形式发生了巨大的改变,终身雇佣、家长式关怀和员工忠诚等因素正在淡出社会的主流雇佣观,自我雇佣、临时雇佣和人事外包等非正规雇佣形式逐渐成为社会的热点。因此,在新的社会背景下对职业生涯的内涵和观念进行反思是十分有价值的。本文分析了无边界组织发展引发的雇佣关系和职业契约的转变,认为就业能力是无边界职业生涯转变与平衡的基础,也是新型雇佣关系核心内涵。     

中国的国民经济综合平衡理论

将中国经济发展的成功经验上升为系统化的经济理论是时代的要求,也是中国经济学发展的时代课题。 本文以时间为脉络, 从国家的经济管理实践和政府政策的视角, 对中国70 多年国民经济综合平衡理论的演进进行梳理, 认为这一理论最早萌芽于20 世纪40 年代, 形成于高度集中的计划经济时期, 并在社会主义市场经济体制下得到了进一步发展和创新, 以国家宏观调控理论的形式呈现出来。 国民经济综合平衡理论实质是统筹兼顾、 适当安排、 协调发展。 21 世纪中国发展的指导思想———科学发展观、 新发展理念正是在新的历史条件下对综合平衡理论的发展和创新。 因此, 国民经济综合平衡理论不仅没有过时, 而且以新的面貌呈现出来。 国民经济综合平衡理论是马克思主义社会再生产理论中国化的重要成果, 是中国共产党执政规律在经济领域的实践探索成果, 是社会主义建设规 律的理论探索成果, 也是中国对人类社会经济发展规律认识的理论探索成果, 是中国特色社会主义经济学学术体系和话语体系的重要组成部分, 其内容和形式未来也会随着中国特色社会主义的发展而不断发展。     

从公平正义谈权力制衡

公平正义被视为是社会主义法治的价值追求。追求公平正义,就必然要涉及权力制衡,因为权力没有制衡就会导致人治和专权,当然就谈不上公平正义了。古代中国就有相生相克的“五行之说”。所谓相生相克其实就是一个制衡体,而我们所设想的权力制衡也就应该是这样一种制衡的机制。运用这种理论,文章分别从立法权的制衡、司法权的制衡、政党权的制衡、私权的制衡等四个方面对权力的制衡内容、方式、效果进行了论证。     

中国历史上大众食生活“和”思想：膳食平衡与健康

“和谐”与“均衡”思想是中国传统文化的精髓,体现在社会文化生活的各个方面,饮食文化自然不例外。中华民族传统食文化,把古老而有效的中医理论体系和人民大众日常生活中日积月累的生活经验相结合,注重膳食中的阴阳、寒热等各方面的平衡,以达到强身健体、延年益寿之功效。这与今天医学和营养科学角度所提倡的膳食平衡是不谋而合的。     

Federal Balance and Economic Stability*

The paper examines the concepts of and the conditions for vertical and horizontal fiscal balance in a federal system, with special reference to intergovernmental grants arrangements and the effects of open-ended settlements on the stability of the system. The notions of vertical balance, horizontal balance and open-endedness are then applied to other aspects of economic policy, in particular the formulation of budgetary policy by a single government and the settlement of wage claims. It is suggested that economic instability in Australia during recent years has been associated with two forms of horizontal imbalance, resulting from institutional factors which have encouraged open-endedness in the process of determining budget priorities on the one hand and open-endedness in wage bargaining on the other.     

资产负债表的直接传染--一种银行与企业信用链上的信贷冲击乘数效应

文章立足于中国垄断竞争型的信贷市场,以直接金融对银行间接金融的替代性较弱为前提,深入分析了在经济或金融紧缩时期,银行贷款收缩或变动通过资产负债表的直接传染可能产生的一种信贷冲击乘数效应,并且指出,这种乘数效应可能与现有文献所研究的信用渠道中的银行借款渠道和金融加速器效应形成相互强化机制,进一步放大信贷变动对经济造成的冲击.     

汇率变动与贸易差额

本文在介绍了中国汇率制度的演变历程和进行了大量的文献回顾的基础上，主要采用实证分析方法，分析了人民币实际汇率变动对中日和中关贸易差额的影响。分析结果表明：与传统的经济理论不同，人民币的实际升值，并不能必然导致中国贸易顺差的减少。     

Foreign Exchange Intervention For Internal Balance

This paper is concerned with the optimal combination of sterilization and wage Indexation in a small open economy subject to various disturbances. In most cases the Effects of these policy instruments are interdependent such that they act like a single Instrument. At the optimum, in addition to the well-known substitutability of foreign Exchange intervention and wage indexation , the complementarity of foreign exchange Intervention and sterilization is obtained. The relationship between the degree of Capital mobility and the optimal combination of the policy instruments is also examined. [E52, F4]     

航空公司不同商业模式的均衡分析

文章首先对航空公司商业模式进行了划分;其次,通过微观经济模型,分别分析了几种典型商业模式的均衡条件;最后,讨论了航空公司不同商业模式均衡对完善国家航线结构和明确民用机场定位所具有的意义。     

Monetary Non-Neutrality and the Intertemporal Approach to the Balance of Trade: The UK Trade Balance under Bretton Woods

Previous research on the intertemporal approach is based on the standard, real model of the balance of trade. This paper outlines a more general model that allows for monetary non-neutrality, and tests the general model against a restricted version that embodies neutrality. While the empirical analysis focuses on the UK trade balance during the Bretton Woods era, the fundamental issues are of interest to more than just students of Bretton Woods.     

企业知识化与知识价值化的平衡

知识经济使人们认识到知识才是企业最重要的资源。企业只有不断创造知识、培育企业能力才可能赢得未来的竞争。但知识的创造并不一定会带来经济价值、带来企业价值的提高。知识价值在于不仅要强化知识自身的创造,还要集中强化知识活用所带来的企业—社会价值的创造。     

Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics

The balance of payments is an accounting identity. Many wonder how the current and capital accounts, which add up to zero, can influence exchange rates. This paper shows how payment flows arising from balance of payments imbalances affect the demands for different currencies in the foreign exchange market over time. Based on a dynamical system approach, the paper demonstrates how international payments evolve depending on the joint dynamic behaviour of different balance of payments components. It finds that international payments and exchange rates interact in fundamentally different ways depending on whether a country restricts its capital inflows and outflows, whether capital flows are accommodating or autonomous and whether the exchange rate is fixed, flexible or, say, governed by a crawling peg. Empirical evidence from major industrial countries as well as from countries hit by currency crises support the paper's theoretical predictions.     

分配理论中的决策均衡

在社会发展的不同历史阶段,人们首先以各种不同的方式维护着社会的稳定与平衡,并且随着科技的不断进步和人类活动范围的扩大,逐步意识到了均衡的一般原理,这些原理对指导分配理论的研究有极重要的意义,克服了传统经济学中的要素理论无法解决的一些问题。