货币政策的分配效应研究——基于异质性家庭视角

货币政策不仅是应对突发冲击、在短期内迅速实现经济复苏的政策工具,而且具有调节收入分配的功效。通过将异质性家庭和货币政策引入动态随机一般均衡分析框架,文章考察了扩张性货币政策的分配效应。研究发现,降息不仅能够促进李嘉图和经验规则式家庭的消费和就业,而且有助于降低消费不平等和收入不平等。与不考虑不平等因素的货币政策规则相比,考虑消费不平等和收入不平等的拓展规则引致的社会福利损失显著降低。因此,在制定和执行货币政策规则时,不仅应当考虑家庭的异质性,而且应当考虑可能的消费不平等与收入不平等。     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH CONSTANT RELATIVE RISK AVERSION AND VASICEK INTEREST RATES1

We consider a pure exchange economy consisting of a single risky asset whose dividend drift rate is modeled as an Omstein-Uhlenbeck process, and a representative agent with power-utility who, in equilibrium, consumes the dividend paid by the risky asset. Endogenously determined interest rates are found to be of the Vasicek (1977) type the mean and variance of the equilibrium stock price are stochastic and have mean-reverting components A closed-form solution for a standard call option is determined for the case of log-utility. Equilibrium values have interesting implications for the equity premium puzzle observed by Mehra and Prescott (1985)     

Education bias of trade liberalization and wage inequality in developing countries

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled–unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster.     

Tourism development,environmental pollution and economic growth: A theoretical analysis

We develop a two-sector dynamic model of a less-developed economy with an imported traded good sector and with a non-traded tourism service sector serving international tourists. Revenue earned from tourism finances imports. The model takes care of the negative effect of tourism development on environmental pollution. Environmental quality and capital stock accumulates over time. We analyse comparative steady-state effects and show that tourism development raises the level of capital stock as well as national income but lowers the quality of environment in the new steady-state equilibrium leading to a relative expansion (contraction) of the capital (labour) intensive non-tourism (tourism) sector. Pollution abatement policy produces a completely opposite effect; and so tourism development policies are to be accompanied by pollution abatement policies in order to ensure green growth.     

贸易自由化对工资差距的影响及作用机制--基于中国制造业企业的实证研究

本文利用世界银行的中国企业调查数据分析贸易自由化对工资差距的影响,结果表明贸易自由化显著提升企业内工资差距。企业进口投入品的行为使其内部普通员工的最高与最低工资之比提高约50％,总经理与中层经理的工资比提高约30％,中层经理与普通员工的工资比提高约12％－20％。进一步分析表明,自由贸易使企业对高技能劳动力的需求更大,更倾向于采用绩效工资、进行研发投资、提供员工培训和使用计算机,这些因素均导致工资差距的上升。     

中国性别工资不平等的国外研究综述

通过回顾改革开放后性别工资不平等的研究文献,发现由于人力资本的回报特征,市场化使得性别工资差别加大,而且城市性别工资差别要比农村性别工资差别小,由性别工资歧视引起的工资不平等也小于工资差异,市场竞争力度的加大并没有减小性别工资不平等。目前,现有的文献只是对少数地区、少数人的性别工资不平等进行了研究,迫切需要大范围的实证研究以探寻经济改革对性别工资不平等的影响。     

Urban development,excessive entry of firms and wage inequality in developing countries

This paper examines the short and long-term effects of urbanisation, via favourable urban development policies, on income distribution and social welfare for a developing country, in which the urban manufacturing sector is characterised by imperfect competition and free entry. Urbanisation shifts rural workers to the highly productive urban sector, while causing production in urban firms to expand because of scale economies. However, urbanisation may worsen wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labour in the short term. In the long term, urbanisation can attract new firms to the urban sector and favourable urban development policies may result in excessive entry of firms, which can amplify wage inequality in the economy. This entry-amplifying effect is confirmed empirically, especially for low and lower-middle-income countries. If the entry effect is not considered, the impact of urbanisation on wage inequality could be understated by 13% for low and lower-middle-income countries.     

进出口商品结构对我国工资差距的影响

本文研究我国进出口贸易结构对技术工人与非技术工人工资差距的影响.分析发现:我国技术密集型产品的出口逐渐取代了劳动密集型产品的出口,出口商品结构的改善加大了对技术工人的相对需求,扩大了我国技术工人与非技术工人工资差距.进口商品结构的变化对工资差距的影响则不确定.行业特征对工资差距的影响也非常显著,技术密集型行业偏向对技术工人的培养;劳动密集型行业则会偏向对具有比较优势的非技术工人的投入;资本密集型行业对技术工人的需求影响不显著.     

Economic liberalisation,gender wage inequality and welfare

The article develops a 3-sector general equilibrium model appropriate for economies with female labour oriented export sector to examine the effects of economic liberalisation policies on gender based wage inequality. It is assumed that there exist disparities in efficiencies between male and female labour due to skewed access to education and health, and differences in their spending patterns leading to differential effects of respective wages on their nutrition. The results indicate that tariff cut may reduce gender wage inequality, but may have detrimental effects on welfare; while foreign capital inflow may accentuate the inequality, despite improving the welfare of the economy. However, government policies to increase the provision of education and health have favourable effects on gender wage inequality but may be welfare deteriorating. Thus, the article provides a theoretical explanation to empirical evidences of diverse effects of liberalisation on gender wage inequality and explains the possibility of a trade-off between gender inequality and social welfare.     

Access to imported intermediates and intra‐firm wage inequality

We use Chinese firm‐level data from the World Bank Investment Climate Survey to examine the link between importing intermediates and intra‐firm wage inequality. Our results show that intermediate input importers not only have a significant wage premium but also have a greater intra‐firm wage dispersion than non‐importing firms. This pattern is robust when we control for productivity and use trade costs as the instruments. We further investigate the mechanism of how importing intermediates might contribute to both inter‐firm and intra‐firm wage inequality. Our evidence is consistent with three important channels. First, imported intermediate inputs complement skilled labour. Second, intermediates importers are more likely to use performance pay. Third, imported inputs complement innovation and employee training.     

劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构——贸易与工资差距研究范式新探

在回顾文献基础上,本文梳理出贸易影响工资差距的机制,认为在劳动供给结构不变的前提下,工资差距决定于劳动需求结构变动,而劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构是研究两者关系的重要范式.劳动禀赋结构模型是在两国生产两种产品且技术水平相同的框架下,贸易品由于劳动禀赋结构不同,导致单位成本产出水平变动,进而影响劳动需求结构和工资差距;而技术效应结构模型则是在两国生产一种产品且技术水平不同的框架下,贸易品由于技术效应结构不同,导致相对工资和劳动需求关系曲线变动,进而影响劳动需求结构和工资差距,而且直接效应和间接效应的传导机制有很大差别.     

US trade wars in the twenty‐first century with emerging countries: Make America and its partners lose again

In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA , an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP . There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA , but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly.     

INFINITE HORIZON INCOMPLETE MARKETS WITH A CONTINUUM OF STATES

In this paper we address existence of equilibria in an incomplete markets economy with countably many periods and a continuum of states at each node of the infinite tree. We consider two models: one where agents have to honor their commitments and another where default is allowed. In both models, marginal utility of income, at each node, is shown to be bounded, and we prove existence by taking finite-dimensional approximations and applying Fatou's lemma sequentially.