中国积极财政政策与货币政策效力的比较——对蒙代尔—弗莱明模型的一个修正运用

运用一个修正的MF模型 ,对我国积极财政政策和货币政策的效力进行比较 ,得出在我国现行汇率制度安排下 ,积极财政政策的效果要优于货币政策。当前我国的经济政策应以财政政策为主 ,坚持积极的财政政策 ,淡化扩张性的货币政策。     

财政货币政策搭配理论综述

财政政策和货币政策是宏观调控的两大政策工具,二者的紧密搭配对于实现宏观经济政策目标具有重要意义。从理论上阐释财政政策和货币政策配合的必要性,财政政策与货币政策的一致性是二者协调配合的客观基础,两者的差异性是二者协调配合的现实必要性。封闭经济的IS-LM曲线、米德冲突、丁伯根法则以及蒙代尔有效市场细分等理论是财政货币政策搭配理论的基础。     

NNS模型及其对宏观经济学的新发展

20世纪80年代以来,新兴新古典综合（NNS）模型被广泛运用于解释具有微观基础的宏观经济问题。本文考察NNS模型的总体研究工作,论证其对于当下宏观经济学的新发展及意义。NNS模型分析性地说明：价格稳定将继续作为好的货币政策的基础,保证货币政策达到家庭福利最大化;在实际操作中,通过锚定预期未来通货膨胀,利率政策通过促进价格稳定的可信性强化了杠杆作用,导致利率政策在最大程度上促进了当前的总需求;只要现金优先的解释暗示了如果价格下降,产出只能增加,那么可以发现,扩张型的财政政策必然会在货币外生的体制下产生通货紧缩的后果。NNS模型对于中国经验具有一定的解释力。     

日德本币升值下的政策得失及对我国的启示

在本币升值背景下,日本与德国采取了不同的应对政策。德国首先着眼于国内宏观经济的稳定,放开汇率的波动,从而更好地保持了国民经济的稳定与增长;而日本试图阻止和缓解日元升值压力,其结果却是日元持续急剧升值,并造成了日本高通货膨胀和泡沫经济。综观日本、德国汇率波动的历史可以得到以下启示：人民币汇率升值是必然趋势;坚持货币政策的独立性十分重要;在坚持货币政策的独立性的同时,实现缓慢渐进式汇率改革;区域货币合作有利于区域内强国减少投机资本冲击,减少汇率升值对贸易品部门的负面影响;加快经济发展战略的转型,促使内外经济均衡发展。     

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Interest Rates in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of the bank lending rate in Ghana using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. We found evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the average lending rate charged by commercial banks and its determining factors. In the long run, bank lending rates in Ghana are positively influenced by nominal exchange rates and Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy rate but negatively with fiscal deficit, real GDP and inflation. We also find positive dependence of the bank lending rate on exchange rates, and the monetary policy rate both in the short and long run. Specifically, our findings reveal that the Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy rate and the exchange rate, by far, show strong contemporaneous effects on the average bank lending rate in Ghana.     

Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

基于资产负债表的中国宏观政策选择研究

一国采取什么样的宏观政策和这个国家的资产负债表状况密切相关。2002至2011年中国国家资产负债表总体状况良好,政府的狭义负债率、广义负债率都低于国际警戒线。尽管中国广义负债率水平不断提高,但仍然不超过50％,这决定了未来中国宏观政策的选择是适度扩张的财政政策、中性的货币政策。其中,扩张性财政要从政府投资为主,转向以补贴和减税为主,并减持国有股份以充实社会保险基金;中性货币政策以加强对银行监管和控制风险为主,同时加快人民币国际化、扩大对外投资,控制扩张财政带来的通货膨胀。     

中外应对全球金融危机的政策比较

全球金融危机对世界各国经济造成了严重的负面影响,主要国家纷纷出台针对性的政策措施以应对。文章对比分析了美、日、英等发达国家和中国的政策措施,归纳出中国政策措施的特点,并提出了中国进一步应对全球金融危机的政策建议。     

人民币价值悖论与中国央行的货币政策选择

2005年以来,人民币出现了对外升值和对内贬值并存的现象。随着我国经济持续快速增长,外汇储备屡创新高,人民币对外升值的压力持续增大。与此同时,人民币在国内按购买力计算的对内价值趋于下降,主要表现为国内逐渐面临着通货膨胀的压力。本文主要从理论上来分析论证这一现象出现的原因、金融内在的机理以及相应的政策建议。     

中国经济增长中货币政策与财政政策有效性的比较检验

本文通过一个广义货币供应量、财政支出和国内生产总值三变量向量误差修正模型(VECM)考察中国1978—2005年间货币政策和财政政策对经济增长影响的差异性特征。在应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法研究它们之间的动态特性后发现:积极货币政策的经济增长效果无论在短期还是长期内均要强于财政政策,长期内,积极货币政策对经济增长一直有递减的正效应,但是积极财政政策由于挤出效应的影响,长期内对经济增长呈负效应。     

国内外货币政策对中国有色金属价格影响研究

本文基于价格影响机制理论分析,通过构建VAR模型,分别进行ADF检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、模型的平稳性检验及脉冲响应分析,探讨国内外货币政策对我国有色金属价格影响的显著性.研究表明:国内外货币政策对我国有色金属价格的影响都具有显著性,国内货币政策影响较大;SHIBOR利率对有色金属价格影响显著性要强于货币供应量M...     

影响我国内外部均衡的政策实施环境

当前 ,我国在运用财政政策和货币政策实现内外部均衡过程中 ,要受到体制环境、社会环境等各种因素的制约。由于人民币利率和人民币汇率的市场化程度都比较低 ,决定了我国内外部均衡的实现要依靠政府强有力的宏观调控政策 ,但政府采取的货币政策的实施效果又被当今社会诚信缺失所破坏。我国目前对境内机构经常项目外汇收入所实行的强制结汇政策也导致了外部失衡对内部均衡的冲击。城乡居民边际消费倾向的降低使财政政策的效果大打折扣。不过 ,由于我国进出口商品结构的变化 ,进出口商品的需求弹性系数在逐步提高 ,运用人民币汇率政策调节国际收支实现外部均衡的条件也在改善     

Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy

Industrial countries moving from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes experience dramatic rises in the variability of the real exchange rate. This evidence, forcefully documented by Mussa [Nominal exchange regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: evidence and implications. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (1986) 117], is a puzzle because it is hard to reconcile with the assumption of flexible prices. This paper lays out a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that combines nominal price rigidity with a systematic behavior of monetary policy able to approximate a continuum of exchange rate regimes. A version of the model with complete exchange rate pass-through is broadly consistent with Mussa’s findings. Most importantly, this holds independently of the underlying source of fluctuations in the economy, stressing the role of the nominal exchange rate regime per se in affecting the variability of the real exchange rate. However, only a model featuring incomplete exchange rate pass-through can account for a broader range of exchange rate statistics. Finally there exist ranges of values for either the degree of openness or the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods for which the baseline model is also consistent with the empirical insensitivity of output volatility to the type of exchange rate regime, as documented by Baxter and Stockman [Journal of Monetary Economics 23 (1989) 377].     

North American Integration and Monetary Policy Convergence: A Canadian Perspective

ABSTRACT

The overwhelming dependence of Canada and Mexico on their trade with the United States suggests that less exchange rate flexibility could benefit both countries. Yet, the central banks of Canada and Mexico argue that their policies of inflation targeting call for just the opposite. In the case of Canada and the United States, this article concludes that the occasional divergence in the two monetary policies cannot explain the exchange rate.

The alleged existence of a fundamental connection between the exchange rate and the international price of a given set of commodities is the usual explanation for this result. However, the evidence presented in this article suggests that the connection may be simply the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy and bandwagon expectations. This would imply that the case for exchange rate flexibility is overstated in the case of Canada.

RESUMEN. La abrumadora dependencia de Canadá y México de su comercio con los EE.UU., parece sugerir que podría ser ventajoso para ambos países que existiese una menor flexibilidad en la tasa cambiaria. No obstante, los bancos centrales de Canadá y México argumentan que las metas trazadas para sus políticas de inflación exigen justamente lo opuesto. Este artículo concluye que, en el caso de Canadá y los Estados Unidos, a menudo la divergencia en ambas políticas monetarias no consigue explicar el tipo de cambio.

Para justificar este resultado, generalmente se dice que la explicación reside en la presunta existencia de un vínculo esencial entre el tipo de cambio y el precio internacional de un conjunto de mercancías. Sin embargo, las pruebas presentadas en este artículo sugieren que dicho vínculo puede ser meramente resultado de una profecía que pregona su propio cumplimiento y una tonelada de expectativas. Esto implicaría que, en el caso de Canadá, opinar que debe existir mayor flexibilidad en el tipo de cambio es una posición exagerada.

RESUMO. A opressiva dependência do Canadá e do México de seu comércio com os Estados Unidos sugere que uma menor flexibilidade na taxa de câmbio poderia beneficiar ambos os países. No entanto, o banco central do Canadá e o do México argumentam que as metas traçadas para a sua política de inflação exigem exatamente o contrário. No caso do Canadá e dos Estados Unidos, o artigo conclui que a eventual divergência entre as duas políticas monetárias não explica a taxa de câmbio.

A justificativa para este resultado é a suposta existência de um forte vínculo entre a taxa de câmbio e o preço internacional de um determinado conjunto de mercadorias. A evidência apresentada neste artigo, contudo, indica que tal vínculo possa ser simplesmente o resultado de uma profecia auto-realizável e de muitas expectativas. Isto significaria que, no que diz respeito ao Canadá, o caso da flexibilização da taxa de câmbio é exagerado.     

美国退出量化宽松政策对我国货币政策的影响

美联储宣布从2014年1月开始削减资产购买规模,意味着美国长达五年之久的量化宽松政策正式进入退出阶段,美国开始逐渐收紧流动性,大量资本开始回流,美元也步入上升通道。美国退出量化宽松政策给我国带来了明显的负溢出效应,影响到我国货币政策的制定与实施。对美国退出量化宽松政策给我国经济带来的影响进行了深入分析,并提出加强货币政策的微观定向调控、审慎对待短期资本的开放、保持适当宽松的货币政策、推进人民币汇率形成机制改革等政策建议。     

关于财政货币政策调整的争论与分析

本文认为,在全球经济复苏特别是澳大利亚、挪威政府开启加息程序的背景下,考虑财政货币政策的调整问题是很有必要的.国内生产总值增长速度、居民消费价格指数同比增速、投资与进出口增速、国内政策之间的配合程度、国际之间政策的协调程度等可以作为对财政货币政策调整与退出作出判断的重要指标.文章提出,中国积极的财政政策应该在2011年下半年或2012年开始逐渐淡出直至退出,货币政策应该继续维持"适度宽松"的基调,真正向"适度宽松"回归,并注意把握好政策的重点、力度和节奏,从而更好地发挥货币政策支持经济增长、保持物价稳定的作用,同时还应密切关注美国货币政策的动向.     

一个解释中国通货膨胀的可行框架:1981—2006

经过修正的财政主导型制度和价格水平决定的财政理论可以分别对1981—1994年和1995—2006年两个时期的通货膨胀史进行解释,其中前者源于对既有经济学文献的综合分析,后者源于以事实为基础的逻辑推理和最新正式经验研究。一个重要的现实政策含义是,要实现价格稳定和可持续经济增长,中国务必要进行第二次制度变革,其方向是以积极型货币政策与被动型财政政策搭配为基础的货币主导型的李嘉图制度。     

我国近期通货膨胀的影响因素与治理对策

自08年金融危机以来,我国通货膨胀的问题随着2009年经济呈现"v"型反转的出现也显现出来了,而且呈现愈加严重的情况.本文对当前我国的经济形势进行了分析,从而对形成我国通货膨胀的主要原因进行了研究总结,并提出了相应的治理对策.     

“人民币单边升值综合症”的症状、原因及对策分析

本文在介绍“人民币单边升值综合症”(2005年以来人民币单边升值现象)的症状的基础上,深入分析了其产生的各种原因,并针对这些原因,从货币政策、汇率管理、资本项目管制、外汇储备管理以及房地产市场宏观调控等方面提出了具体的可行性对策和建议.