政府支出对居民消费的影响研究--基于空间动态面板模型的分析

本文在居民消费效用最大化的理论背景下,结合统计年鉴相关数据,利用空间动态面板模型,研究了1997-2013年中国的政府支出对全体居民、城镇居民以及农村居民消费的影响。研究结果表明：居民消费存在显著的习惯效应,政府支出和居民收入增加会促进居民消费,各省份之间居民消费既可能存在相互促进的关系,也可能存在相互竞争的关系。因此为了促进居民消费,需要适当地保持较好的消费习惯,改变不良的消费习惯,注意省份之间的密切合作,现阶段可以增加政府支出,来刺激居民消费,特别是农村居民消费,另外还需要提高城镇居民可支配收入和农村居民纯收入。     

减税和扩大政府支出对经济增长和扩大内需的效率与效力比较——基于SVAR模型的分析

本文运用SVAR模型考察了改革开放30年来,税收与政府支出对经济增长、居民消费和企业投资的影响关系.结果显示,在弹性关系层面无法确定政府支出、税收和经济增长之间是否存在协整关系.但在增长率层面政府支出对于经济增长和扩大内需均有促进作用,而税收的作用则相反.扩大政府支出对于促进经济增长和扩大居民消费而言,比减税的影响效率与效力都强,但减税对企业投资的促进效率与效力则优于扩大政府支出所产生的影响.     

房产和金融资产对家庭消费的影响:中国的微观证据

利用最新的中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,研究资产对家庭消费的影响。在区分耐用品消费和非耐用品消费的基础上,分析房产和金融资产及扣除债务后的净资产在消费中的作用。实证结果显示:在房产拥有者中,房产的消费弹性在0.07～0.09之间,即房产增加100元,消费将增加7～9元;而金融资产的消费弹性比房产的消费弹性要小得多,当金融资产增加100元时,消费只增加2元左右;老年家庭房产的消费弹性低于年轻家庭;城市家庭的房产消费弹性高于农村家庭;借贷能力对资产的消费弹性没有影响。     

政府公共文化支出对家庭文化消费的影响研究——基于中国家庭追踪调查的分析

政府在促进文化消费中发挥重要作用。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年和2016年的家庭经济数据,利用Tobit模型实证分析了政府公共文化支出对家庭文化消费的影响,以及该影响在城镇和农村家庭、不同收入水平家庭中表现出的异质性。研究表明:政府公共文化支出增加有助于提高家庭文娱支出占比,且在缩尾处理和更换关键变量的稳健性检验中,核心结论仍然成立;但是,政府公共文化支出对文化消费的挤入效应主要局限于城镇家庭及中低收入家庭,对农村家庭、低收入和中高收入家庭的刺激作用不显著。应继续扩大文化事业财政支出规模,优化公共文化服务资源配置,重点扶持农村文化娱乐消费,同时提高文化产品和服务供给质量。     

Fueling the Credit Crisis: Who Uses Consumer Credit and What Drives Debt Burden?

Excessive household debt contributed to the worst recession in decades. Insights about borrowing and spending behavior can inform economic recovery forecasts, policy decisions, and financial education. This study identifies life cycle and credit attitude as key determinants of who uses debt. Younger households are more likely to borrow for consumption, as are those who believe that it is all right to borrow to purchase luxury goods or cover living expenses. Furthermore, households that condone borrowing for these purposes have a higher consumer debt burden. Debt capacity (or creditworthiness) and financial discipline are also significant factors in determining household debt use.     

Culture and consumption expenditure patterns: comparison between Korean and United States households

Abstract The purpose of this study was to identify household consumption expenditure patterns in the US and to determine if these patterns are different from those of Korean households. Data were cluster analysed, and the results revealed four different consumption expenditure patterns for US and Korean households. Logit analysis showed that consumption expenditure patterns of households in both countries are likely to vary depending on socioeconomic factors. Similarities and differences in consumption expenditure patterns between cultures are discussed, and implications are provided.     

Why households buy bottled water: a survey of household perceptions in the Philippines

This study investigates the determinants of household buying decisions to purchase bottled water or purified water from refilling stations among households in Metro Cebu, Philippines. A survey of 360 households was conducted to obtain data on household sources of drinking water, household bottled water buying behaviour and perceptions of water quality. A binary probit model was used to examine the effects of socio‐economic and perception‐based variables on the likelihood that a household regularly bought bottled or purified water. Results show that households that perceived their primary source of water, whether from the tap or from other sources, to be unsafe were more likely to buy bottled or purified water. Education of household heads, the presence of children ages 0–5 years, household size and price were also found to have significant effects. Income, however, was not found to have influenced the decision to buy. Having piped access to the local water district and knowledge of government assurances about water safety were also not found to have a significant impact.     

THE ADVERSE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON PRIVATE CONSUMPTION IN NEW KEYNESIAN MODELS

Empirical evidence shows that government spending crowds in private consumption, a Keynesian phenomenon. The current, state of the art, New Keynesian models based on optimizing households and firms are not able to predict such a result. In this paper, we critically analyse fiscal policy in these models using a graphical framework as well as a formal model. Extensions aimed at generating crowding in, like useful government spending or rule of thumb consumers, turn out to be inappropriate. We argue that introducing productivity enhancing government spending could potentially lead to crowding in.     

Mobile Telephony,Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth

ABSTRACT

The paper employs the multipurpose nature of mobile telephony to investigate its welfare implications using a large sample of households in Ghana. We use seemingly unrelated probit and instrumental variable procedure to test for two related issues: First, we investigate whether mobile telephony promotes pro-poor development by helping households to efficiently allocate consumption and navigate out of poverty. Second, we analyze whether access to a broad array of financial services enhances the capacity of households to live worthwhile lives. The results show that mobile penetration and financial inclusion significantly reduce the probability of a household becoming poor and increase per capita household consumption of food and non-food items. Our results show that the welfare benefits of mobile telephony and financial inclusion are not more pronounced in female-headed households. These insights serve as useful guide for government and other stakeholders who are looking for avenues to improve livelihoods.     

Absolute and Relative Consumption of Married U.S. Households in 1960 and 1996: The Cleavers Meet the Taylors

Consumer Expenditure Survey data for 1960 and 1996 are used to examine the real consumption of single-earner and dual-earner households. Both real consumption quantities and budget shares of consumption categories were found to differ by household earner type. However, both real consumption quantities and budget shares of the majority of consumption categories were more similar for singleearner households and dual-earner households with two full-time workers in 1996 than in 1960. Also, the savings rate of all household earner types improved significantly from 1960 to 1996.     

Changes in food provision in Russian households experiencing perestroika

The purpose of this article is to describe how households in Novgorod the Great, Russia, deal with food provision in everyday life. The study focuses on changes experienced in food provision and consumption in Russian society, in order to illustrate how households respond to the transformation towards a market economy. The study reflects women's perspective on food provision. Students from Novgorod the Great visited 105 households and asked the women in the household to answer a questionnaire. Results from the study show that in order to cope with changes in society related to economic reforms, Russian households had changed both their food consumption and food production patterns. There was no big difference between urban and rural households. Nearly all of the households were self‐sufficient in the provision of vegetables and potatoes. Many households had a ‘dacha’ (plot), where they produced most of what they needed. Among the changes experienced during recent years (i.e. during the end of the 1990s), a decade after perestroika was initiated, households mentioned the rise in food prices and the decrease of income. Households reported that they consumed less fruit and/or meat. Some households also mentioned that the quality of nourishment had decreased, thereby indicating lower general quality, lower nutrition value, or less healthy foodstuffs.     

When nutritional guidelines and life collide: family fruit and vegetable socialisation practices in low socioeconomic communities

Abstract

Parents play a critical role in promoting fruit and vegetable consumption, for eating patterns established early in life tend to persist into adulthood. Despite this, the factors that facilitate or inhibit parents’ capacity to socialise fruit and vegetable consumption into their children’s daily diets remain poorly defined. Thirty-eight semi-structured interviews with residents, allied healthcare professionals, community leaders, community programme leaders and a local government leader living or working in two low socioeconomic suburbs were consequently conducted to ascertain factors exogenous and endogenous to the family unit that shaped parental food socialisation practices. Budgetary and time constraints emerged as exogenous factors that constrained fruit and vegetable socialisation. Constraining effects were also found for a range of endogenous factors, including commensal experiences, children’s food fussiness and the feeding styles employed by parents. As such, while many caregivers may wish to socialise fruit and vegetable consumption into their children’s daily diets, their capacity to do so is often inhibited by factors beyond their volitional control. Failure to take heed of these factors could therefore result in the development of social marketing campaigns that are ineffective at best or give rise to unintentionally harmful outcomes at worst.     

Household savings and present bias among Chinese couples: A household bargaining approach

Family savings is crucial to long-term wellbeing for all members in a household, particularly in a Chinese context where costs of living increasingly shift from government to individuals. Savings are typically examined as a balance of financial behaviors and spending preferences; however, this study highlights how savings in a family context is also a function of relationship status. Drawing on intra-household bargaining models, we analyze data from the 2014 China Family Panel Studies to examine the extent to which men's and women's relative power in the household explain variation in savings levels across families. Our findings indicate that women's greater bargaining positions (e.g., income and assets) correspond with greater savings for the family. However, such bargaining power constitutes a net negative for family savings when women have both greater relational power and higher spending preferences. We suggest that family savings can and should be understood as an outcome of dynamic bargaining conditions in addition to income factors.     

Consumption levels of households based on expenditure and household production

The distribution of consumption is the relative ranking of households with regard to their consumption level. This article discusses the possibilities and some of the problems in measuring consumption levels by combining expenditure and household production into one total figure. The feasibility of our approach is illustrated by using data from the Dutch 1980 budget survey and the 1980 time use study. The findings show that this total figure differs more between households of different size than between households by stage of life cycle or by income level.     

Factors affecting low fruit and vegetable consumption in Scotland: a review of factors affecting fruit and vegetable consumption

The recently published ‘Scottish Diet’¹ emphasizes the importance of diet in Scotland's poor health record, and sets dietary targets for the year 2000. Fruit and vegetable intake is considerably lower in Scotland than in the rest of the U.K. This paper gives details of the low levels of fruit and vegetable consumption in Scotland in relation to the rest of the U.K., and then goes on to review the factors affecting consumption of these foods, and in particular to discuss them in terms of the Scottish situation. Finally, an agenda for research in this area is outlined, emphasizing the need for further information on the interrelationships between the different factors affecting fruit and vegetable consumption, in order to inform future strategies for increasing fruit and vegetable consumption in Scotland.     

Comparison of fruit and vegetable consumption among Native and non‐Native American populations in rural communities

Fruit and vegetable consumption of Native Americans was compared with that of non‐Native Americans and determinants of fruit and vegetable intake for both populations were found based upon the Theory of Planned Behavior. A one‐time survey was conducted as part of a larger research project funded by the South Dakota Department of Health. The survey was administered in local grocery stores and supermarkets in six South Dakota communities, including two located on Native American reservations. Of the 1000 distributed surveys, 499 were returned with 230 being usable, resulting in a response rate of 49.9%. Wilcoxon signed‐rank test and two regression models were tested using SAS 9.2 software. Dependent variables were fruit and vegetable intake. Attitudes towards health, fruit and vegetable consumption, perceived difficulty, subjective norm and intention were also measured. Community size, family income, employment status and participation in food assistance programmes [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or Women, Infants, and Children (SNAP or WIC)] were socio‐demographic control variables. Overall, Native American participants consumed more fruit and vegetables at home and had a more positive attitude towards healthy diets than non‐Native American participants. SNAP or WIC participation, family health, exercise, intention to live healthier than parents, buying healthy food, and fruit and vegetable consumption when eating out were positively associated with fruit and vegetable consumption among Native Americans, while participation in the SNAP or WIC programme had a negative influence on consumption among non‐Native American participants. Family health, exercise, buying healthy food, fruit and vegetable when eating out, and intention to buy healthy food were positively associated with fruit and vegetable consumption among the non‐Native American population. Theory of Planned Behavior variables (e.g. attitude towards healthy food) significantly contributed to the model explaining fruit and vegetable consumption. The fact that SNAP and WIC participation had an opposite influence on the two populations warrants further research.     

Critical Success Factors for Peak Electricity Demand Reduction: Insights from a Successful Intervention in a Small Island Community

This paper examines a successful residential peak electricity demand reduction project which employed a multi-disciplinary approach. The purpose of this study was to examine the critical success factors necessary for reducing peak demand and total energy consumption in a small Australian island community. This case study research is based on qualitative data obtained from semi-structured, in-depth interviews with residents from 22 households. It is proposed that the results of the examined project are transferable to other communities if the utility is able to develop the necessary trust, access, influence, and partnership with residential consumers required to create the environment for electricity demand reduction success. Findings from this research highlight the potential approach for future policymaking aimed at reducing peak electricity demand and total energy consumption in multiple communities, thus helping achieve government low carbon targets while reducing infrastructure spending.     

Unexpected Consequences of Ricardian Expectations

The Ricardian equivalence thesis maintains that, given the time‐path of government spending, a change in taxation does not alter the set of feasible lifetime consumption plans of the households and affects neither the demand for commodities and services nor the rate of interest, provided the households act rationally. This note establishes that the very expectations the thesis proposes (‘Ricardian expectations') are invalidated if households act rationally. The divergence from Ricardian equivalence is traced to the omission of interest payments on public debt as part of the households' disposable income. The non‐equivalence is valid in a wide class of models.     

Analysis of tenure choice and housing expenditure patterns

This study employs a selectivity model to account for the simultaneity existing between determinations of tenure status and level of spending. Important socio-economic characteristics affecting housing tenure were identified. Results indicate that income had a more important effect on the housing expenditures of renters than owners at a lower household income level. The race of the household head had a significant effect on variations in housing expenditures for owners but not for renters, suggesting that race may be a more important factor in owner-occupant than in renter-occupant housing. While household size may be an important factor in a family's decision-making in terms of buying a home, it is suggested that once tenure status is selected family size had no significant impacts on housing expenditures. Similarly, married couples were most likely to own their own homes than were other household types; however, married households did not spend more or less than other types of households on either owned or rented accommodation. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that in assessing empirical results, attention should be given to meaningful interpretation of estimated selectivity effects as well as to testing for occurrence of selectivity bias.     

Can food calorie be an index for poverty in a rural economy? An extrapolation from farm households in Ogun State,Nigeria

The study assessed poverty in rural areas of Ogun State, Nigeria through the food energy (calorie) intake approach. A sample of 60 households (comprising of 346 members) were selected using a multistage sampling technique and were interviewed with the aid of well‐structured questionnaire. Data were analysed using nutrient estimation techniques, cost of calorie method and poverty index. The estimated food poverty line was 64.72 naira. The incidence, intensity and severity of poverty were consistently higher among female‐headed households and households that lack access to credit facilities with values 0.290, 0.359, 0.160 and 0.313, 0.371, 0.160 for the poverty measures respectively. Incidence of poverty reduces with educational level and age of household heads, but the corresponding intensity and severity were higher for households whose heads are between 46‐ and 55‐year brackets and those who have secondary school education. All measures of poverty decline with farm size. Multipronged strategies involving improvement of educational level of household heads, improved access to agricultural land and credit facilities, as well as fair distribution of resources towards women, among others, are recommended for poverty and hunger reduction and for sustained agricultural production.