Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

Governance Transparency and Capital Allocation: A Note

Habib (2008) shows that financial transparency, but not governance transparency, is related to efficiency in capital allocation. I argue that governance transparency is more likely to facilitate capital allocation in declining industries where agency problems intensify. Empirical evidence from a sample of 39 countries supports this argument.     

Capital Budgeting for Advertising Expenditures: A Contingent Claims Approach

Advertising expenditures constitute a big part of the budgets of firms. Through their impact on demand and costs, advertising activities affect the firm's pricing and output decisions as well as the firm's market value. Yet, there is no analytical framework by which these effects can be measured. This paper develops a cash flow model for a product where the advertising budget is divided between a strategic component designed to increase expected demand and a contingent component allocated to be used only if sales fall short of capacity. Contingent claims techniques are employed to evaluate the present value of the cash flows and to provide a framework for determining the size of the advertising budget, and the pricing and production strategies that maximize the firm's value. The impact of the price sensitivity, volatility, and growth rate of demand on the size of the advertising budget is also analyzed.     

Joint Insolvency Analysis of a Shared MAP Risk Process: A Capital Allocation Application

In recent years, multivariate insurance risk processes have received increasing attention in risk theory. First-passage-time problems in the context of these insurance risk processes are of primary interest for risk management purposes. In this article we study joint-ruin problems of two risk undertakers in a proportionally shared Markovian claim arrival process. Building on the existing work in the literature, joint-ruin–related quantities are thoroughly analyzed by capitalizing on existing results in certain univariate insurance surplus processes. Finally, an application is considered where the finite-time and infinite-time joint-ruin probabilities are used as risk measures to allocate risk capital among different business lines. The proposed joint-ruin allocation principle enables us to not only capture the risk dynamics over a given time horizon, but also overcome the “cross-subsidizing” effect of many existing allocation principles.     

Human Resource Allocation in a CPA Firm: A Fuzzy Set Approach

The review of existing human resource allocation models for a CPA firm shows that there are major shortcomings in the previous mathematical models. First, linear programming models cannot handle multiple objective human resource allocation problems for a CPA firm. Second, goal programming or multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) cannot deal with the organizational differentiation problems. To reduce the complexity in computing the trade-offs among multiple objectives, this paper adopts a fuzzy set approach to solve human resource allocation problems. A solution procedure is proposed to systematically identify a satisfying selection of possible staffing solutions that can reach the best compromise value for the multiple objectives and multiple constraint levels. The fuzzy solution can help the CPA firm make a realistic decision regarding its human resource allocation problems as well as the firm's overall strategic resource management when environmental factors are uncertain.     

Financial Development and Intersectoral Allocation: A New Approach

This paper uses a new methodology based on industry comovement to examine the role of financial market development in intersectoral allocation. Based on the assumption that there exist common global shocks to growth opportunities, we hypothesize that country pairs should have correlated patterns of sectoral growth if they are able to respond to these shocks. Consistent with financial markets promoting responsiveness to shocks, countries have more highly correlated growth rates across sectors when both countries have well‐developed financial markets. This effect is stronger between country pairs at similar levels of economic development, which are more likely to experience similar growth shocks.     

Moments of Discounted Dividends for a Threshold Strategy in the Compound Poisson Risk Model

Abstract

We consider a compound Poisson risk model in which part of the premium is paid to the shareholders as dividends when the surplus exceeds a specified threshold level. In this model we are interested in computing the moments of the total discounted dividends paid until ruin occurs. However, instead of employing the traditional argument, which involves conditioning on the time and amount of the first claim, we provide an alternative probabilistic approach that makes use of the (defective) joint probability density function of the time of ruin and the deficit at ruin in a classical model without a threshold. We arrive at a general formula that allows us to evaluate the moments of the total discounted dividends recursively in terms of the lower-order moments. Assuming the claim size distribution is exponential or, more generally, a finite shape and scale mixture of Erlangs, we are able to solve for all necessary components in the general recursive formula. In addition to determining the optimal threshold level to maximize the expected value of discounted dividends, we also consider finding the optimal threshold level that minimizes the coefficient of variation of discounted dividends. We present several numerical examples that illustrate the effects of the choice of optimality criterion on quantities such as the ruin probability.     

Capital Account Liberalization and Aggregate Productivity: The Role of Firm Capital Allocation

We study the effects of capital account liberalization on firm capital allocation and aggregate productivity in 10 Eastern European countries. Using a large firm‐level data set, we show that capital account liberalization decreases the dispersion in the return to capital across firms, particularly in sectors more dependent on external finance. We provide evidence that capital account liberalization improves capital allocation by allowing financially constrained firms to demand more capital and produce at a more efficient level. Finally, using a model of misallocation we document that capital account liberalization increases aggregate productivity through more efficient capital allocation by 10% to 16%.     

Capital and Risk Revisited: A Structural Equation Model Approach for Life Insurers

The role of risk in the capital structure decision of firms is a vast topic in finance. Commonly, models of the interrelationship between risk and capital enumerate as many risk factors as possible by appropriate proxies, with the goal of detailing their individual effects. In this study of the life insurance industry for 1994 through 2000, we take a broader, holistic view of enterprise risk, identifying two groups of insurer risk factors that arise from the major activities of life insurers: investing and underwriting. We call the group of risk factors associated with investing asset risk, and the group associated with underwriting product risk. After specifying other important determinants of capital structure as controls, we allow all other risk factors to find expression in residual error. Within this framework, our focus is to compare two candidate measures for the role of proxy for asset‐related risks. One measure, called regulatory asset risk (RAR), derives from the regulatory tradition of concern with solvency and is related to the C‐1 component of risk‐based capital. The other measure, called opportunity asset risk (OAR), is motivated by traditional finance concerns with market risk and reflects volatility of returns. Product‐related risks are proxied by underwriting exposures in different product lines. We employ structural equation modeling (SEM), which uses longitudinal factor analysis. SEM is an innovative technique for such studies, in dealing effectively with multiple structural equations, autocorrelated panel data, unobserved underlying factors, and other issues that are not simultaneously addressed in other methodologies. We find that RAR and OAR are not equivalent proxies for asset risks. Although overlapping to some extent, each illuminates different aspects of the asset risk–capital interrelationship. In particular, RAR does not seem to affect the capital structure decision of small firms, although OAR does. We interpret this to suggest that small firms as a whole are not as sensitive in their capital decisions to the proxy of regulatory concerns as to the proxy of market opportunity. This contrasts with large insurers, for whom both RAR and OAR have significant effects on capital that comport with the finite risk hypothesis. More detailed analysis suggests that the lack of effect of RAR for small insurers may result from RAR's proxying some factors that induce finite risk for part of the small insurer sample, and other factors that favor the excessive risk hypothesis.     

新常态下投资驱动力转换的效率研究——以重庆地区为例

资本配置和资本投入后的实际使用效率两者的共同作用影响着经济的优化发展。本文以重庆地区为例,通过资本配置效率模型和资金使用效率模型,对投资、信贷、经济增长三者之间的关系进行分析。分析结果表明,重庆信贷资源的供给有效引导了社会投资的合理分配,从而促进了产业的优化升级和转型;但对一些重点领域,特别是新经济增长点的投资还有待提高,新增长点潜力有待释放。对此,本文结合重庆当前战略发展规划,就实现经济发展的主动转型和可持续性提出了政策建议。     

商业银行不良贷款的经济资本配置：方法与差异

我国商业银行经济资本计量方法都是基于巴塞尔监管资本要求,却忽略或无法准确衡量不良贷款的经济资本问题。事实上,商业银行不良贷款的经济资本配置和正常贷款是不同的。文章利用解析法和蒙特卡罗模拟法对三类具有不同粒度构成的不良贷款组合进行计算、分析和比较。结果表明,贷款组合分散化程度越高,损失分布与正态分布越接近,此时适合采用解析法计算经济资本。当贷款组合分散化程度较低但不含支配型贷款时,采用解析法和模拟法所得结果相差并不大。但是当组合含支配型贷款时,损失分布与正态分布出现较大偏离,模拟法更加适用。另外,贷款组合所需的经济资本量与贷款组合的分散程度大小一般呈负相关。     

Portfolio Capital Flows in Thailand: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

We study the gross and net terms of portfolio capital flows by examining their determinants. Through the application of the Bayesian model averaging method, the determinants are evaluated by a set of models instead of a single specification. Our findings show that the magnitude of both gross equity and gross debt flows are large, relative to their net terms. Equity inflows and outflows are quite symmetric with similar determinants; debt inflows and outflows are less symmetric. The paper provides partial evidence to support the importance of both internal and external factors as determinants of capital flows.     

"松"还是"紧"养老基金资产配置的难题

不可否认,对资产配置的限制可以使养老金资产避免资本市场的代理和投资集中化的系统风险,但同时也会产生一些不利影响.因此,对“松”与“紧”的选择就成了一个政策难题。     

Analytical Approach to Value Options with State Variables of a Levy System

In this paper we present an analytical method in pricing Europeancontingent assets, whose state variables follow a multi-dimensionalLévy process. We give an explicit formula for the hypotheticalEuropean "two-price" call option price by means of the conditionacharacteristic transform. The work not only unifies and extendsthe option pricing literature, which focuses on the use of thecharacteristic function, but also provides the way to formalizeandunify the valuation of the option price, the valuation of thediscount bond price, the valuation of the scaled-forward price,and the valuation of the pricing measure in incomplete markets.JEL Classification codes: G13     

The Allocation of Capital Between Residential and Nonresidential Uses: Taxes,Inflation and Capital Market Constraints

We have constructed a simple two-sector model of the demand for housing and corporate capital. Economic growth and an increase in the inflation rate were then simulated with a number of model variants. The model and simulation experiments illustrate both the tax bias in favor of housing and the manner in which the increase in inflation between 1965 and 1978 magnified it. The existence of capital-market constraints offsets the bias against corporate capital, but it introduces a sharp, inefficient reallocation of housing from less wealthy, constrained households to wealthy households who do not have gains on mortgages and are not financially constrained.     

新兴市场资本流动与金融脆弱性:一个三维分析框架

全球金融危机以来,国际资本的大量流入推动了新兴市场的经济增长。但这种由外债驱动的增长,使其更易受到发达国家利率、汇率等外部因素的制约,造成金融不稳定。本文从经常账户、外汇储备和对外债务等三个不同的角度探讨上述外部因素对新兴市场的风险传递效应。根据对新兴市场国家的总体和分项脆弱性指标进行的情景分析,本文得出的结论是,如果国际资本流动等金融市场条件发生不利变化,巴西、印尼、俄罗斯、南非和土耳其等五个国家将面临较大的金融风险。     

Issues in Claims Reserving and Credibility: A Semiparametric Approach With Mixed Models

Using the statistical methodology of semi-parametric regression and its connection with mixed models, this article revisits smoothing models for loss reserving and credibility. Apart from the flexibility inherent to all semiparametric methods, advantages of the semiparametric approach developed here are threefold. First, a Bayesian implementation of these smoothing models is relatively straightforward and allows simulation from the full predictive distribution of quantities of interest. Second, because the constructed models have an interpretation as (generalized) linear mixed models ((G)LMMs), standard statistical theory and software for (G)LMMs can be used. Third, more complicated data sets, dealing, for example, with quarterly development in a reserving context, heavy tails, semi-continuous data, or extensive longitudinal data, can be modeled within this framework.     

A Finite Difference Approach to the Valuation of Path Dependent Life Insurance Liabilities

This paper sets up a model for the valuation of traditional participating life insurance policies. These claims are characterized by their explicit interest rate guarantees and by various embedded option elements, such as bonus and surrender options. Owing to the structure of these contracts, the theory of contingent claims pricing is a particularly well-suited framework for the analysis of their valuation.The eventual benefits (or pay-offs) from the contracts considered crucially depend on the history of returns on the insurance company's assets during the contract period. This path-dependence prohibits the derivation of closed-form valuation formulas but we demonstrate that the dimensionality of the problem can be reduced to allow for the development and implementation of a finite difference algorithm for fast and accurate numerical evaluation of the contracts. We also demonstrate how the fundamental financial model can be extended to allow for mortality risk and we provide a wide range of numerical pricing results.