Overlapping free trade agreements and international trade: A network approach

In our work, we have analysed the effect of the hub‐and‐spoke nature of free trade agreements (FTA s) on trade. Contrary to previous analyses, we have considered the effects of the country's position in the FTA network on the bilateral trade of the hub country. We have conducted an in‐depth analysis of the global network of FTA s, focusing particularly on its evolution in the last 15 years. We have utilised a panel data set covering the period 1960–2010 to investigate the effects of the hub‐and‐spoke on trade. Our results show that the countries that are more connected to FTA s export more than those that are less involved, although not all the partner countries you can connect with are the same. An increase in the number of spokes that have no link between them has, on average, a negative effect on the trade of the hub, which indicates that signing FTA s with every country is not the optimal strategy for increasing trade. However, if we consider the way new FTA s change the relative position of a country, we can see that if new FTA s make the country more central or less constrained in the network, these new agreements have a strongly positive and significant pro‐trade effect.     

Multilateral stability and efficiency of trade agreements: A network formation approach

We study the endogenous network formation of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements by means of hypergraphs and introduce the equilibrium concept of multilateral stability. We consider multicountry settings with a firm in each country that produces a homogeneous good and competes as a Cournot oligopolist in each market. Under endogenous tariffs, we find that a multilateral trade agreement governing the rules and norms of tariff setting, that is the WTO/GATT regime itself, together with a bilateral preferential trade agreement (PTA) is multilaterally stable. We also find that the existence of the WTO is necessary for the stability of the trading system. We further analyse the impact of PTAs on multilateral tariffs within the WTO. We find that the formation of PTAs increases countries' incentives for multilateral tariff reduction.     

中国-东盟水产品贸易网络演变及特征分析

近些年来,中国与东盟双边水产品贸易额不断攀升。通过社会网络分析方法构建了中国-东盟水产品贸易网络,并从网络密度、中心性、核心-边缘结构等视角对贸易网络特征进行了研究。结果表明:中国-东盟水产品贸易网络密度有小幅下降,但整体维持在一个较高水平,国家间的水产品贸易联系较为紧密,双边水产品贸易潜力正在被不断挖掘;中国、泰国、越南、印度尼西亚等国家居于贸易网络中心位置,且中国的排名较为靠前;中国-东盟水产品贸易网络的核心-边缘结构比较稳定,中国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国、新加坡、越南始终居于核心国地位。根据研究结论,提出了优化中国水产品贸易结构、强化中国在贸易网络中的中心位置、加强与网络内各国家间的合作等对策建议。     

Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country, multi-good approach to trade theory

We provide a synthetic analysis of the different ways in which countries participate in the world economy. Classic trade questions are reconsidered by generalizing a factor-proportions model to multiple countries, multiple goods or multi-stage production, and country-specific trade costs. Each country's production specialization, trade and welfare is determined by the interaction between its relative endowment and its trade costs. We consider the effects of allowing one good to ‘fragment’ into component and assembly production. The volume of trade and welfare levels are higher with fragmentation for most countries, although for many countries these variables fall with fragmentation.     

Social responsibility of countries and their international trade: A gravitational approach

This article presents an econometric study based on a gravitational model estimation of the link between the prevailing social conditions in a country and its exports. It is based on an original indicator of social conditions: the Responsible Competitiveness Index (RCI) launched in 2007 by AccountAbility, the organisation that introduced the international AA1000 Standard. The regressions initially show a positive connection between the social responsibility of the countries and their exports. It is not a linear connection but shows a bell-shaped curve stronger in countries with lower levels of social responsibility (Southern countries): it can be negative in countries with high levels of social responsibility (Northern countries).     

A network approach to strategy

The task of environmental analysis has a key role to play in formulating strategy and the strategic management process. How the process should be organised, however, depends largely on the theoretical perspective applied to both the nature of the business environment, and a corresponding understanding of strategic action within that environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a strategic analysis framework which incorporates the theoretical propositions in the markets-as-network model. The Swiss energy industry is used to provide the context to illustrate the framework's application. Finally we examine what it contributes to moving the markets-as-network model towards the explanatory level of inquiry.     

International market selection and subsidiary performance: A neural network approach

How should multinational enterprises (MNEs) select international markets? We develop a model of international market selection that adds firm-specific advantages and transaction cost considerations to previously explored target market factors based on Dunning's Eclectic Framework. Results obtained using neural network (NN) analysis indicates that our model has strong predictive power in explaining international market selection. Further tests show that firms selecting international markets predicted by the model reported significantly higher subsidiary performance relative to firms whose investments were not predicted by the model. Our results provide strong initial evidence that a firm-level strategic approach to international market selection facilitates MNE success.     

The de minimis threshold in international trade: The costs of being too low

With tariffs largely negotiated away, trade facilitation issues such as custom delays and border costs are one of the next key barriers for trade policymakers to address. One important trade facilitation issue is the de minimis threshold (DMT )—a valuation ceiling for imports below which no duty or tax is charged and the clearance procedures are minimal. Customs assessments are costly and low thresholds can hinder trade flows. We offer a detailed analytical approach to assess the direct economic effects of raising the DMT . We focus on Canada, which has one of the lowest DMT s among developed countries. We utilise a unique data set and find that raising Canada's DMT would have positive effects for consumers and businesses, particularly small businesses because the cost saving for smaller entities is disproportionately large. For the government, foregone duty and tax revenues are outweighed by the cost saving, resulting in a fiscally neutral or even positive effect for government revenues.     

Trade liberalization,free trade agreements,and the value of firms: Stock market evidence from Singapore

We examine the effects of the United States–Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on the value of firms listed in the Singapore Exchange using event study analysis. Despite the predictability of the FTA negotiations, we find that one event – the removal of the last obstacle to the free trade deal in January 2003 – increases the value of firms in some industries by 1–11% on average. These results indicate that trade liberalization and FTAs do increase the value of firms.     

美国对华贸易逆差形成原因、影响及应对策略

美国贸易的互补性强于竞争性,美对华技术出口的严格管制加剧了对华贸易逆差和对中国经济的负面影响。两国贸易不平衡引发贸易摩擦,严重阻碍了中国进出口贸易的顺利进行。中国应实行全局开放战略,以双边协商缓和贸易摩擦,促进出进口双向增长,实现对外贸易的基本平衡。     

A contribution to a multidimensional analysis of trade competition

International trade grew substantially throughout the last decades and international relations became more important for the economic performance of the countries. Simultaneously, new poles emerged in the international arena leading to growing competition for higher market shares. Therefore, trade competition is a critical dimension of analysis for applied international trade studies. We propose a conceptual framework for measuring this phenomenon by combining some critical previous contributions to build a multidimensional and more comprehensive concept, which defines trade competition as a function of the degree of both structural similarity and total exports overlap. Moreover, structural similarity should take into account three elements: sectoral shares similarity, inter‐sectoral similarity (evaluating how different the distinct sectors are) and intra‐sectoral similarity (proximity in terms of quality ranges exported). Several measures are proposed to empirically capture the concept suggested. Finally, we present an example including the exports of six European economies (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Greece, Hungary and Sweden) to 124 destination markets (in 2007, 2011, 2015) in order to illustrate the application of the concept and measures suggested.     

The political economy of regulations and trade: Wine trade 1860–1970

Dramatic changes in the 1860–1970 wine trade provide insights on the political economy of regulations and policy instrument choice and trade. An invasion of Phylloxera in the 1870s turned France from the world's leading exporter to a massive importer of wine and grapes. When French production recovered a combination of tariffs, safety regulations and quality standards were introduced to protect its French producers, causing dramatic changes in global wine and grape production and trade, including in Spain, Italy, Turkey, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco. Changes in wine regulations were caused by relative income and loss aversion factors in political economy. Tariffs were the preferred policy instruments as they directly restrict imports, bring in revenues, have low transaction costs and are preferred political instruments when there are information imperfections. Safety regulations and quality standards, including labelling and input prohibitions, reduce asymmetric information for consumers or undesirable externalities, and simultaneously protected domestic producers. Regulations were often targeted at imported products (wine and raisins) when tariffs were ineffective or constrained by institutions (such as on colonial wine). Hence, tariffs and quality regulations were jointly used in wine policy, both as complements and as substitutes in policy design.     

Value network dynamics in 3G–4G wireless communications: A systems thinking approach to strategic value assessment

This article develops a map to analyze the dynamic forces that influence the structure and development of 3G (third generation) wireless communications value networks. The analysis builds on the Strategic Value Assessment Model (Fine, et al. [Fine, Charles H., Vardan, Roger, Pethick, Robert, El Hout, Jamal. Rapid-Response Capability in value chain Design. MIT Sloan Manage Rev 2002, 43(Winter): 69–75.]) and utilizes a qualitative System Dynamics mapping approach. The map focuses on the driving forces affecting user adoption of 3G services, focusing on customer dynamics, competitive dynamics, and technology dynamics. To analyze adoption of 3G services by customers, the articles maps the dynamics of (1) network investment and user population, (2) entry of service innovators as well as price competitors, (3) the effects of positive network externalities arising from a larger user population, (4) price compression as lower willingness-to-pay users adopt 3G services, (5) scale economies in terminal costs and prices, and (6) new content development as a draw to new users. Applying inductive systems diagrams hypotheses are integrated into a causal loop map and tested with data collected at 15 communications-industry workshops attended by 190 participants in Europe. The map aims to deepen the understanding of the possible evolutionary paths of the 3G wireless value network. The article seeks also to assess which future scenarios are plausible and what dynamic triggers might make them likely.     

Bilateral trade effects of fiscal devaluation: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper empirically examines the effects of a fiscal devaluation on bilateral trade. To this end, employers’ social contribution (ESC) and value-added tax (VAT), which stand as the factors that represent typical fiscal devaluation, are embodied within the framework of a gravity model. Fixed effects vector decomposition (FEVD) technique is applied to the empirical models specified within this framework, employing panel data from 22 OECD countries over the 1980–2014 periods. The findings show that the effectiveness of the fiscal devaluation policy seems to alter with respect to how ESC and VAT are measured. Considering the fiscal devaluation policy implemented unilaterally, the policy turns out to be effective in nine countries in the sample.     

The use of social media to detect corporate fraud: A case study approach

Social media is a rapid and dynamic medium of communication that forms a crucial component of the modern business toolkit. It can be used to detect corporate fraud by tapping into collective user wisdom, also known as the wisdom of crowds. This article highlights both the potential and limitations of social media in detecting corporate fraud by examining information from traditional media and social media for a recent corporate fraud case (i.e., Empowered Products Inc.). Using text analysis of information posted on traditional media compared to social media, this article illustrates how social media provides an increased level of relevant information in a faster manner. By using wisdom of crowds in this way, social media platforms such as Twitter can improve organizational knowledge quality. We identify methods for managers to utilize social media to improve their organizational knowledge management.     

Facilitating international production networks: The role of trade logistics

Networked trade in parts and components is more sensitive to the importer's logistics performance than is final goods trade. The difference between the two trade semi-elasticities is over 45%, which is quantitatively important. We also find that logistics performance is particularly important for trade among developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which is where the emergence of production networks has been most pronounced. Logistics performance is also more important for South–South trade than for South–North trade. Our results suggest that developing country policymakers can support the development of international production networks by improving trade logistics performance.     

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia: The role of value‐added trade

We empirically investigate the relationship between business cycle synchronisation and the role of value‐added trade focusing on a panel of 12 Asian countries from 1995 to 2011. In addition, we propose the inclusion of two novel determinants, for example external value‐added trade intensity and exchange rate volatility and also saturate our empirical model with other common determinants found in the literature. Our findings first confirm that value‐added trade intensity, rather than gross trade intensity, has a sizable, positive and statistically significant impact on synchronisation among East Asian countries. Second, the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the business cycle synchronisation, which verifies that the exchange rate volatility is another important determinant of business cycle synchronisation. Our findings have important implications for the monetary cooperation in the region: strengthening trade linkage could reduce the costs of monetary cooperation by increasing the incidence of symmetric shocks.     

国际贸易与技术溢出:经验研究的最新进展

有关国际贸易与技术溢出的最新经验研究都是在Coe和Helpman(1995)计量模型(简称CH模型)的基础上展开的。CH模型的扩展涉及到:R&D溢出变量的不同设定形式;其它溢出渠道的引入;人力资本的具体作用。本文对国外关于进口贸易与技术溢出的经验研究的最新进展进行了综述,并揭示了进一步研究的方向。     

The clash of liberalizations: Preferential vs. multilateral trade liberalization in the European Union

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are characterized by liberalization with respect to only a few partners and thus they can potentially clash with, and retard multilateral trade liberalization (MTL). Yet there is almost no systematic evidence on whether the numerous existing PTAs actually affect MTL. We provide a model showing that PTAs hinder MTL unless they entail accession to a customs union with internal transfers. Using product-level tariffs negotiated by the European Union (EU) in the last two multilateral trade rounds we find that several of its PTAs have clashed with its MTL. However, this effect is absent for EU accessions. Moreover, we provide new evidence on the political economy determinants of trade policy in the EU.