社会责任与家族企业生命周期

社会责任的履行与家族企业生命周期之间存在相关关系.本文在借鉴国外家族企业社会责任履行的成功案例基础上,构建社会责任与家族企业生命周期演变模型,分析中国本土家族企业社会责任履行的不同特征以及社会责任对家族企业生命周期的影响,探讨了中国家族企业的可持续变迁路径.     

人口结构与金融市场风险结构:风险厌恶的生命周期时变特征

金融市场中要更多考虑参与主体"人"的因素。经典理论模型通常设定风险厌恶系数为不随年龄而变的常数。本文构建模型并运用微观和宏观数据,刻画和验证经济主体风险厌恶在生命周期中的时变特征。微观视角下风险厌恶受年龄正向影响,宏观视角下金融市场和行为风险厌恶均随平均年龄上升而上升。少年人口占比负向影响风险厌恶;中、老年人口降低风险偏好,风险态度趋于保守。风险厌恶在生命周期内存在时变性,表现为年龄越大风险厌恶越强,可谓"江湖越老,胆子越小"。这对于后续建模中设定风险厌恶可变系数有借鉴意义。年龄改变风险态度和风险资产组合,使得人口年龄结构系统性影响金融市场风险结构。因此,本文对于从人口学视角预判未来金融市场风险结构也具有一定参考价值。     

生态节能建筑全寿命周期经济评价

文章论述了生态节能建筑的概念,揭示全寿命周期成本的内涵,主要引用了绿色GDP概念,运用差额比较法将评价指标分为成本增量指标和效益增量指标来进行评估,并在此基础上建立了经济综合性动态评价,能够较为全面地反映生态节能建筑在经济、社会、环境方面的表现,有助于推进建筑业的可持续发展。     

企业生命周期视角下家族企业家动态胜任力演化逻辑探究

家族企业家胜任力一直是促进家族企业成长和推动经济发展的重要变量。现有文献从概化视角出发,探究企业家胜任力内容结构,呈现出动态研究不足和应用效果欠佳的双重缺陷。基于企业生命周期角度,通过文献述评和实证分析,构建能够表征家族企业家胜任力静态和动态内容特征的结构体系。结果发现,在家族企业不同发展阶段,由能量流胜任力、物质流胜任力、信息流胜任力和个性胜任力4个维度表征下的家族企业家胜任力结构体系,其公因子权重和所包括内容均存在差异,能较好地揭示家族企业家动态胜任力演化逻辑,使得家族企业家间胜任力横向和纵向比较成为可能,从而提升应用实践性。     

A Note on Economic Content and Test Validity

This note offers some practical, easily used tips on how teachers can determine whether tests under consideration for classroom use are “valid,” that is, whether they measure what they are supposed to measure.     

菜籽油生物柴油技术经济评价——基于全生命周期评价方法

采用全生命周期评价方法,对菜籽油制生物柴油的二氧化碳排放量和经济性进行了评估,旨在说明用菜籽油生产生物柴油对环境的影响及其经济价值。结果表明:在用菜籽油生产生物柴油的全生命周期过程中,排放入大气中的二氧化碳量远低于从大气中吸收的二氧化碳量,油菜籽制生物柴油是一种环境友好的燃料;就经济性而言,菜籽油制生物柴油的生产成本较高,每吨约高出0#柴油3178.2元,生物柴油的商业化应用尚需等待原料成本的降低。     

行业生命周期、企业生命周期与混合并购绩效的实证研究

以沪深两市发生混合并购的上市公司为对象,分析样本企业所在的行业生命周期与企业生命周期处于不同组合状态时,混合并购绩效的差异,以探寻适合混合并购发生的外在条件与内在时机。首先,将样本企业所在的行业生命周期和企业生命周期分为成长、成熟、衰退三个阶段,据此将样本企业按其所处的"行业-企业"生命周期的不同组合状态分为九组;其次,以独立样本t检验法和多元线性回归法,研究在九种不同组合状态下,样本企业混合并购绩效的差异。本文的结论为:企业处于"行业衰退-企业衰退"生命周期组合状态时,混合并购后绩效得到显著改善;而无论行业生命周期处于何种阶段,成长期企业实施混合并购均不利于绩效改善。     

Life Cycle and Cohort Productivity in Economic Research: The Case of Germany

Abstract. We examine the research productivity of German academic economists over their life cycles. It turns out that the career patterns of research productivity as measured by journal publications are characterized by marked cohort effects. Moreover, the life cycles of younger German economists are hump shaped and resemble the life cycles identified for US economists, whereas the life cycles of older German economists are much flatter. Finally, we find that not only productivity, but also research quality follows distinct life cycles. Our study employs econometric techniques that are likely to produce estimates that are more trustworthy than previous estimates.     

一项对经济增长实证研究的贡献

本文检验了索洛模型是否与生活水平的国别变化相一致,提出了一个既包括人力资本积累也包括物质资本积累的扩展的索洛模型,很好地解释了跨国数据.该模型大约解释了人均收入国别变化的80%,支持模型预测的是物质资本积累、人力资本积累和人口增长的影响估计.本文也检验了索洛模型关于生活水平趋同的结论,即是否穷国趋向于比富国增长得快.检验表明,在保持人口增长和资本积累速度不变的情况下,各国会以扩展的索洛模型所预测的速度趋同.     

第十三届中国经济增长与周期高峰论坛观点综述

在第十三届中国经济增长与周期高峰论坛上,国内外专家学者围绕"中国70年发展历程与大国发展模式"这一主题,分析了过去70年经济发展中工业化的演进、政府行为的转变、经济周期的理论与实践,探讨了大国治理的思路和发展方向、措施和发展模式,并就我国经济发展的重要问题,如税收、香港经济发展、新经济发展、贸易转型与汇率制度等问题进行深入研究。同时,发布《2019年中国城市居民生活质量报告》,通过对我国35个城市的生活质量调查,从消费者信心、教育质量、健康状况和医疗服务四方面分析城市居民的生活质量。     

Technology and the Life Cycle of Cities

During times of major technological change, leadingcities are often overtaken by upstart metropolitan areas. Suchupheavals may be explained if the advantage of established urbancenters rests on localized learning by doing. When a new technologyis introduced, for which this accumulated experience is irrelevant,older centers prefer to stay with a technology in which theyare more efficient. New centers, however, turn to the new technologyand are competitive despite the raw state of that technologybecause of their lower land rents and wages. Over time, as thenew technology matures, the established cities are overtaken.     

Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa*

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low‐wage sending regions. Our new estimates of net migration for the countries of sub‐Saharan Africa show that exactly the same forces driving African across‐border migration are at work today. The results suggest that rapid growth in the cohort of potential young emigrants, population pressure on the resource base, and slow economic growth are likely to intensify the pressure for migration out of Africa and into high‐wage OECD countries over the next two decades.     

基于生命周期的创业孵化模式研究

在已有企业生命周期研究成果的基础上,将创业孵化分为种子期、出生期、成长期、成熟期4个阶段,结合不同生命周期企业成长及开展创业活动的决定要素和演变规律,从资源获取、能力培养、风险规避、价值提升4个维度对企业创业孵化的关键要素进行了界定,并揭示了创业孵化的周期性特征,针对企业不同生命周期,提出了萌发模式、孵化模式、加速模式和能变模式4种周期基础功能孵化模式。在此基础上,根据企业在不同生命周期企业边界和孵化边界的变化,提出了基础要素集成模式、周期功能集成模式和网络协同集成模式3种集成模式。     

企业生命周期研究述评

企业生命周期理论是当今研究企业管理的重要理论之一。论文在梳理了企业生命周期理论发展脉络的基础上,将基于企业生命周期的研究分为应用研究与理论研究两大类,前者主要是探讨企业生命周期各阶段中的管理问题,后者则主要探讨企业生命周期理论的自身问题,如阶段的数量、阶段划分的指标与阶段的划分方法等。论文在此基础上,指出了目前研究的不足,并认为未来的研究中应注意3个方面：（1）应用研究中应加强实证研究。（2）理论研究方面,应加强企业生命周期划分方法的研究,找到一种或几种能被大家广泛接受的方法。（3）企业生命周期作为辅助变量的作用尚需进行深入的研究。在企业管理中,企业生命周期会影响相关的管理决策与方法,其可以作为自变量出现,但也可以作为调节变量或中介变量对相关决策产生作用。这方面的研究也需要严谨的实证数据进行验证分析。     

Development Dynamics: Economic Integration and the Demographic Transition

This paper examines the influence of economic integration—widening of the trading area—on economic development and the demographic transition. Economies produce with different technologies depending on their scale. Greater integration between regions (greater extensive scale) is instrumental in changing rates of return, which generates an industrial revolution and provokes changes in child bearing behavior. The demographic transition follows from the mortality response to income and birth response to greater scale. The model is calibrated and simulated using historical data from Europe. Historical evidence is cited to support the idea that integration precedes the dramatic rise in economic growth rates.     

我国房地产周期波动与经济周期的实证分析(1979-2008)

改革开放三十年来,我国房地产业总的发展趋势是持续快速增长,但是通过研究表明也存在着有规律的波动。由于地产业在国民经济发展中的基础性、先导性以及高相关性等特征,特别是经历了三十年发展的今天,对房地产行业周期波动研究的意义就尤为重要。文章采用增长率直接法、H-P滤波法分析了我国房地产业的短周期、中周期和中长周期波动。研究结果表明,自1978年以来,我国房地产业经历了九次短周期波动、二次中周期波动。     

A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition

Literature explaining variations in economic performance among transition economies places a high level of importance on the role of policy. Policy differences are measured via a liberalization index used to explain differences in performance. We find that this index may be endogenous to one performance measure, e.g., output decline, and may, therefore, overstate the role of policy. This paper performs an instrumental variables (IV) estimate of the relationship between liberalization and performance that also allows us to generate a relative index of reform progress. The relative index challenges some commonly held preconceptions about which transition economies are rapid reformers and which are slow reformers.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 718–734. Macalester College, 1600 Grand Avenue, St. Paul, Minnesota 55105.     

External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area

Most studies of business cycle synchronization in the EMU identify a core set of counties with high synchronization and a periphery set of countries with low synchronization. Using a structural VAR with model uncertainty, we identify spillover effects from shocks that originate in the United States, the EMU, and the rest of the world to test whether external influences can explain the existence of the core and periphery. Most countries typically found in the core respond to external spillovers in similar ways, leading to more synchronized business cycles. The response to external influences in the countries traditionally found in the periphery, on the other hand, help explain their exclusion from the core.