Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows*

During the pre‐crisis period, Europe experienced substantial cross‐country variation in domestic credit growth and cross‐border capital flows. We investigate the inter‐relations between domestic credit growth and international capital flows during the period 1993–2008, with a special focus on the boom period of 2003–2008. We establish that domestic credit growth in European countries is strongly related to net debt inflows but not to net equity inflows. This pattern also holds for an extended sample of 54 advanced and emerging economies.     

Gross job flows in Ukraine

This paper documents and analyses gross job flows and their determinants in Ukraine using a dataset of more than 2200 Ukrainian firms operating in manufacturing and non‐manufacturing for the years 1998–2000. Job destruction dominates job creation in both 1999 and 2000. Another clear‐cut result of our analysis is the strong positive effect of new private firms on net employment growth. We also find an inverse relationship between job reallocation and size for both manufacturing and non‐manufacturing, while only in the latter sector is employment growth inversely related with size. The main focus of the paper is the effect of trade flows on employment adjustment in manufacturing. Our results show that both employment growth and job reallocation at the firm and two‐digit sector level are affected by strong exposure to import competition and product market competition in export markets. These effects are more pronounced when we consider trade flows to the world at large and to the EU than when the analysis is based on trade flows to the CIS. JEL Classifications: E24, F14, J63, P23.     

Gross Investment And Technological Change

The impact of technological change upon gross investment has been relatively ignored. Building upon the foundations of the analysis of technological diffusion, an empirical model of gross investment is constructed that takes due account of technological change. This model is then tested upon a panel data set covering 185 UK firms over the period from 1984 to 1992. The results support the hypothesis that there are significant relationships of the expected signs between firm level gross investment, indicators of technological opportunity; the price of the capital goods that embody new technology, and firm and industry characteristics. There is also evidence of lagged adjustment effects in the investment process.     

Gross substitutes and immiserizing growth

In a pure exchange economy immiserizing growth occurs when an increase in the endowment of one trader results in a new equilibrium where that trader has lower utility. This paper demonstrates that such perverse behavior is ruled out when excess demands satisfy a particular gross substitute condition.     

Worker Flows and Job Flows in Danish Manufacturing, 1980-91

We map turnover of workers and jobs in Danish manufacturing over the 1980 to 1991 period, using information about all individual manufacturing plants. We examine the relation between worker flows and job flows and we study separations from and hires to existing jobs ('replacement hiring') in detail. Our results reveal large heterogeneity among workers as well as plants, even adjusting for the level of job flows. The cyclical properties of worker reallocation point to worker flow dynamics being driven by workers quitting in upturns to find better jobs, rather than by plants upgrading the labour force in recessions.     

社会信用环境治理与信用卡安全

信用卡市场具有信贷信息不对称特征,潜在信用风险与欺诈风险.信用卡安全问题引发了一系列金融、经济风险.社会信用环境劣化在实践中加剧了二者关联效应.治理之策在于:以金融信用立法体系化、规范化为目标,构建金融信用环境正式制度框架;以金融信用信息市场统一化为导向,确立信用信息资源交易与传递机制;以信用意识行为化、信用行为常规化为宗旨,改善社会信用非正式制度环境.     

信用危机下重塑中国现代信用体系

市场交易频率及规模、产权的明析、社会分工链的长短、现代的技术、政府的管理等是建立现代信用机制的必备条件 ,本文依此分析了中国目前信用危机内在的体制原因 ,进而从 7个方面探讨了重塑中国现代信用体系的对策     

Technology Shocks and Job Flows

We consider a version of the Solow growth model where technological progress can be investment specific or investment neutral. The labour market is subject to search frictions, and the existing productive units may fail to adopt the most recent technological advances. Technological progress can lead to the destruction of technologically obsolete jobs and cause unemployment. We calibrate the model to replicate the high persistence that characterizes the dynamics of firms' neutral technology and the frequency of firms' capital adjustment. We find that neutral technological advances increase job destruction and job reallocation and reduce aggregate employment. Investment-specific technological advances reduce job destruction, have mild effects on job creation, and are expansionary. Hence, neutral technological progress prompts Schumpeterian creative destruction, while investment-specific technological progress operates essentially as in the standard neoclassical growth model. Using structural VAR models, we provide support to the key dynamic implications of the model.     

静静的红河静静地流：国家十大精品剧目民族舞剧《红河谷》观后

静静的红河静静地流……令人联想到因肖洛霍夫的笔触而举世闻名的《静静的顿河》。但据我的阅读经验，当一部艺术作品“静静地”向它的读者或观众敞开之时，它其实蕴藉着烈烈的悲情和深深的痛楚。作为一个充满着悲情和痛楚的故事，由无锡市歌舞团创作演出的民族舞剧《红河谷》并不是“原创”的。但事实上，要以舞台的有限空间和舞者的有限“语言”去复述电影《红河谷》的博大和邈远。无论从空间的营构还是从语言的叙述来说都绝不亚于“原创”的艰辛。     

信用的生态学诠释与信用生态链的构建

生态学有逐渐与经济学相渗透、相融合的趋势，从而扩展了经济学的研究边界。本文从生态学的视角对信用加以研究，首先介绍了信用生态的理论内涵，其次研究了良好的社会信用生态环境的评价标准，最后对构建和谐的社会信用生态链提出了具体的对策措施。     

市场经济·信用体系·征信行业

我国加入世界贸易组织作出了遵守规则、开放市场的承诺,同时,我国社会信用体系发育程度低和普遍的信用失衡问题却日益突出.在我国经济进入"十五"计划的重要发展时期,信用问题已成为制约经济持续健康发展和完善社会主义市场经济体制的突出问题.加快社会信用体系的建设已成为举国关注的重点之一,追究信用体系的种种问题,人们发现我国作为"非征信国家",征信行业发展严重滞后,影响社会信用体系的建立和完善.因此,加快我国征信行业的规范发展,已成为建立我国社会信用体系,完善我国市场经济体制的重要课题.     

农村信贷失衡、非正式信贷市场与垂直联结

实践表明,发展中国家(包括中国)的正式信贷市场上出现了严重的信贷失衡现象,中小农户从正式信贷机构获得贷款相当困难。本文对比分析了正式信贷和非正式信贷的水平替代和垂直联结两种情况,指出给予非正式信贷机构以信贷支持,有利于为农村中的弱势农户提供更好的信贷条件,也有助于缓解农村中的信贷失衡和“金融抑制”状况。     

How Monetary Policy Affects Your Gross Domestic Product

During the financial crisis, monetary policy was loosened significantly. Debate continues about the extent to which low interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) may have had adverse distributional impacts, whether by income, wealth, age or region. Using quantified simulations on micro data, I show that looser monetary policy had a significantly positive financial impact on the majority of cohorts of UK society. The impact of monetary policy loosening on income and wealth inequality was small and the overall impact on household welfare significantly positive. These results differ from public perceptions of monetary policy. Personalised information on the impact of monetary policy on household balance sheets could help to correct these misperceptions.     

Gross substitutes and complements: A simple generalization

We extend the gross substitutes and complements framework (Sun and Yang, 2006). Competitive equilibrium with indivisible goods exists under significantly weaker, intuitive and interpretable conditions. A generalized dynamic double-track procedure (Sun and Yang, 2008, 2009) finds the competitive equilibrium outcome.     

均衡信贷配给、信用担保与中小企业融资

以信贷配给的双重均衡性为出发点，从信息成本的角度，可揭示出中小企业融资的根本困境在于其特定信息结构所对应的边际信誉成本低于大企业。因此，解决的途径在于引入专业化的信用担保机构。提高信息处理能力，降低信息成本，以改变信贷配给的均衡位置，促使信贷配给的局部均衡向总体福利均衡收敛。这也是由中小金融机构与信用担保机构作用的差异所决定的，因为前者只能弥补“信贷缺口”，并不能缓解信贷配给。