Discounts for Degrees: External Benefits and University Fees

An efficient pricing system for university degrees should take into account the external benefits of degree programs. Results from a small sample survey comparing the external benefits of these programs are reported.     

The 'Peter Pan' of Australian Economic Policy Research

The classic book by J.M. Barrie finishes with Peter Pan inviting the audience to believe in fairies lest more fairies die. Bob Gregory almost invariably invites his audience to believe in economic research – his infectious enthusiasm for ideas is part of it, but he also invites the audience/reader to suspend disbelief, and to accompany him on a journey in hyper-reality of economic research. The analogy of Bob to Peter Pan is developed by reference to my collaborations with Bob during and after my doctoral thesis. Unless social science research creatively explores possibilities with imagination, the overall quality of research dies.     

Participatory Economic Research: Benefits and Challenges of Incorporating Participatory Research into Social Economics

Participatory action research (PAR) and community-based participatory research (CBPR) involve traditional subjects of research in the co-creation of research design, data collection, and analysis. PAR has been used in the fields of public health, education, and geography. A case study of a local economy CBPR project will be discussed. The increasing use of field and behavioral experiments in economics together with recent critiques of the ethical commitments of economic policy raises important questions about the role of expert knowledge, indigenous knowledge, and the relationships of power and privilege involved in mainstream academic research. The applicability of the PAR method for economics will be investigated in light of the epistemological and ethical commitments of social economics.     

Australian Economic Growth: Nonlinearities and International Influences

This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of nonlinear models versus linear models, comparing the models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour nonlinear specifications in which fluctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.     

海峡两岸经济合作:创新与双赢——第二次海峡两岸经济发展论坛综述

2008年5月17～18日,由国际欧亚科学院中国科学中心发起,福建师范大学、厦门大学、福建省社会科学界联合会联合主办的第二次“海峡两岸经济发展论坛（福州）”在福州举行。来自大陆、台湾、香港的知名专家学者、企业界高层人士、120余人参加会议。专家们从两岸经济合作发展的新机遇、制度创新与创造双赢、两岸经济进一步合作的动力、基础与模式、两岸产业合作、建设海峡西岸经济区等方面,阐述了各自的思考、建议与依据。现将论坛的主要观点综述如下。     

油松复合经营的生态经济效益

河北省易县清西陵有树龄300余年的古油松林,多分布在西陵乡的昌陵、泰陵等地。古油松林的郁闭度为0．1－0．5,平均郁闭度为0．2,生长良好。河北农业大学西陵教学林场在古油松林下展开了多种类型的复合经营,取得良好的经济、生态和社会效益。本文对油松复合经营模式作了较全面的总结分析。     

The Australian Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity

This study examines the empirical relation between the yield spread of the term structure of interest rates and future economic activity in Australia. Results indicate that the term spread has significant power to predict real GDP growth but not nominal GDP growth. The term spread has more power in forecasting cumulative future growth than marginal growth in periods ahead. Around one-third of the variance of two year GDP growth can be explained by the term structure one to two quarters ahead. Explanatory power begins to decline beyond two to three years into the future whatever the combination of the long and short term yields used to measure the spread. The term spread has more explanatory power than the most widely used leading index for forecasting economic activity when forecasting cumulative GDP growth beyond two quarters.