Cross-Country Evidence on Public Sector Retrenchment

This article reports the results from a survey of public sectoremployment retrench-ment episodes across a wide variety of developingand transition economies. The information collected and analyzedis primarily from internal World Bank documents and in-depthinterviews with World Bank staff having operational informationabout experiences in specific countries. Using the informationcollected on 41 retrenchment programs across 37 countries, thearticle analyzes the relationships between the factors leadingto retrenchment, the scope and nature of retrenchment, and themethods used to accomplish the retrenchment. The discussionof methods includes an analysis of the mix of involuntary andvoluntary employment reduction programs, the compensation schemesoffered, and the extent of targeting of specific types of workers.Although relevant quantitative information is limited, the articlealso attempts to evaluate the outcome of the programs on severaldimensions. The most striking findings relate to analysis ofthe factors leading a significant fraction of programs to rehireworkers separated from the public sector (thereby defeatingthe programs'objective). In addition, the article relates programcharacteristics to calculated summary financial payback indicatorsand to the nature of the labor market adjustment.     

Market Imperfections,Macroeconomic Conditions,and Capital Structure Dynamics: A Cross-Country Study

This article investigates how “systematic” adjustment costs proxied by market imperfections, and macroeconomic conditions affect capital structure dynamics in a cross-country setting. We document substantial variations in firms’ capital structure adjustments across countries and, particularly, over time. Consistent with adjustment costs impeding firms from rebalancing their capital structures, worse market imperfections are associated with slower speeds of adjustment (SOA) and larger leverage deviations. Intertemporally, capital structure adjustment is procyclical, with SOA increasing by 0.9 percentage point for a one-percentage-point increase in GDP growth rate. The procyclicality is attributable to good macroeconomic conditions mitigating market imperfections through channels of 1) facilitating free-ride restructuring and 2) uncertainty alleviation. Our investigation features a bootstrapping-based estimation method that addresses the mechanical mean reversion of leverage ratio.     

Stock Market Valuation,Foreign Investment,and Cross-Country Arbitrage

This study investigates the role of stock market valuation and cross-country arbitrage in shaping foreign direct and indirect investments, contingent upon a country's stage of development. This paper is built upon the mispricing-driven foreign investment hypotheses developed by Baker, Foley, and Wurgler (2009). Interesting findings emerge when developed and emerging markets are considered separately. Empirical evidence indicates that the use of relatively cheap financial capital for foreign investment is prominent among developed countries, but not so in emerging markets. This is largely due to the extremely low level of foreign investment outflows in emerging markets and the inability of unsophisticated emerging market managers to successfully time the market. Further investigation shows that host-country stock market valuation is an important determinant of the mode of foreign investment; investors tend to choose indirect or portfolio investment, as opposed to direct investment, when the stock market is perceived to be undervalued. This is especially the case in emerging markets, where there is more room for misvaluation and potential arbitrage. These findings suggest that the unique institutional features of the markets involved play an important role in shaping foreign investment and cross-country arbitrage.     

A Theory of Corporate Capital Structure and Investment

This article uses a general equilibrium framework to explorethe origins and limitations of financial intermediaries. Inthe model, investors have a generic lending technology thatthey can improve at a cost. Those who upgrade become intermediariesto exploit their advantage. However, conflicts with depositorswill limit the banks' market presence, and they will only lendto moderately endowed firms while bondholders will finance cash-richcorporations. The article also analyzes the extent to whichinvestors adopt the superior lending technique, the nature ofbank competition, and how corporate and bank conditions affectinterest rates and investment.     

Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.     

Taxes, M-M Propositions and Government's Implicit Cost of Capital in Investment Projects in the Private Sector

The corporate tax claim of the government is internalised in the analysis of the corporation's capital structure. In this framework the M-M Propositions are rederived. In the proposed approach, the current value of the firm is calculated on a before-tax basis, and is equal to the sum of present values of equity, debt, and government claim. An enhanced M-M model is derived, which is more representative of modern financial realities, and has significant implications for the practice of financial analysis. The paper highlights the potential conflict of interest among the different claimholders in making an investment decision. The model presented here allows us to analyse the tradeoffs among various policies available to the government to encourage investments to their socially optimal level.     

Capital Account Liberalization: What Do Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?

Capital account liberalization, it is fair to say, remains oneof the most controversial and least understood policies of ourday. One reason is that different theoretical perspectives havevery different implications for the desirability of liberalizingcapital flows. Another is that empirical analysis has failedto yield conclusive results.     

A New Database on the Structure and Development of the Financial Sector

This article introduces a new database of indicators of financialstructure and financial development across countries and overtime. The database is unique in that it combines a wide varietyof indicators that measure the size, activity, and efficiencyof financial intermediaries and markets. It improves on previousefforts by presenting data on the public share of commercialbanks, introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbankfinancial institutions, and constructing measures of the sizeof bond and primary equity markets.     

Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads

Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time‐series variation in weekly spread changes, a significant amount given that standard credit factors account for 18% during my sample. In addition, seller shocks possess information for spreads that is independent of institution‐wide measures of constraints. These findings imply a high degree of market segmentation, and suggest that frictions within specialized financial institutions prevent capital from flowing into the market at shorter horizons.     

CEO任期与企业资本投资

本文基于管理者在一定约束条件下追求自身利益最大化的逻辑思路,分析管理者任期与企业资本投资之间的关系,重点检验我国上市公司CEO的既有任期和预期任期对企业投资水平和投资效率的影响。研究结果发现,在管理者任期与投资水平的关系上,国有企业与非国有企业表现一致:CEO的既有任期越长,企业的投资水平越高;CEO的预期任期越短,企业的投资水平越低。在管理者任期与投资效率的关系上,国有企业与非国有企业表现不同:非国有企业的过度投资程度与CEO的既有任期及预期任期无关,而国有企业CEO的既有任期越长,过度投资问题越严重;CEO的预期任期越短,过度投资问题越能得到缓解。     

公司的资本成本与投资理性——来自沪深上市公司的证据

本文对我国上市公司的投资行为及其影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明：（1）上市企业的投资决策受资本成本的约束显著，符合市场理性；（2）企业投资对内部现金流、外部负债融资和股权融资都具有敏感性，但回归系数依序递减，可能说明了不同融资形式的成本差异；（3）产品市场需求增长为企业带来了有价值的投资机会，具有拉动企业投资的显著作用。     

消费信贷与家庭人力资本投资

已有丰富的文献考察了消费信贷对家庭消费和投资行为的影响,但少有研究关注其对家庭人力资本投资的影响。家庭人力资本投资对于人力资本积累、经济高质量发展至关重要。基于此,本文考察了信用卡使用对家庭人力资本投资的影响及其影响机制,主要发现如下：信用卡使用显著增加了家庭人力资本投资,且这一效应具有长期动态影响并对城市、高收入、高教育程度家庭影响更为显著,这意味着信用卡消费信贷可能会增加人力资本不平等。进一步研究发现,家庭会增加劳动力供给来应对人力资本支出的增加。机制分析表明,信用卡使用主要通过增加家庭消费投资、促进消费升级、缓解家庭预算约束三种途径促进家庭人力资本投资。在风险可控的前提下,引导消费信贷流向有利于实体经济发展的领域,可助力于消费升级与人力资本积累,从而为经济发展提供新动能。     

Connecting Optimal Capital Investment and Equity Returns

Economic theory predicts a contemporaneous correlation between equity returns and investment growth that is only weakly present in the data. By modifying the firm's production function to include a lag between investment decisions and expenditures, and after correcting for the temporal aggregation of investment, I find the predicted correlation to be present in the data. I estimate the model for 31 industries and find that investment returns are highly correlated with the industry portfolio equity returns. Further, the portion of investment returns orthogonal to equity returns is associated positively with changes in profitability and negatively with lagged differences between equity and investment returns.     

中关村：打造创业投资示范区

伴随着改革开放的春风,中关村走过了不平凡的二十多年,以改革为主线,通过不断的体制创新、知识创新和技术创新,走出了一条以创新引领发展的道路,成为中国高技术产业发展的龙头,成为中国自主创新的标杆和典范,成为当之无愧的＂国家自主创新示范区＂。在高呼加强企业自主创新能力的今天,大家都意识到创业投资对高科技企业和战略性新兴产业的资金支持的重要性。作为中国创新资源最密集、创新最活跃、创新能力最强劲的区域,中关村同样是创业投资机构和创业企业的天堂,是中国股权投资最活跃的区域,是创业投资的示范区     

Capital Deployment Roundtable: A Discussion of Corporate Investment and Payout Policy

U.S. companies are now reportedly earning record‐high operating returns on capital while at the same time continuing to set new records both for corporate cash holdings and distributions to investors in the form of dividends and stock repurchases. But are most of these companies really maximizing value? And what role, if any, do these large distributions play in creating value? These are the two main questions that are addressed by a small group that includes two senior corporate executives and two representatives of well‐known activist investors. A number of panelists suggest that many companies, in misguided efforts to maximize returns on capital, have been using hurdle rates that are too high and so sacrificing value‐adding investment opportunities. As evidence for this claim, they cite evidence that, in recent years, the companies that have achieved the highest stock market returns appear to have made conscious decisions to reduce their returns on capital to pursue higher growth. Another increasingly common charge against U.S. companies is their tendency to pay out excessive capital to investors, especially in the form of stock repurchases at prices that turn out to be too high. But this last practice, however widespread, may not be as troubling as it has been made out to be. Although it involves a wealth transfer from existing to selling shareholders, overall investor value is lost only if such buybacks lead to corporate underinvestment. But, as a number of panelists (including the activist investors) point out, such payouts of capital have generally functioned as a demonstration of corporate managers' commitment to investing and operating with the optimal, or value‐maximizing, level of capital—neither too much nor too little.