Mobile cellular communications in the Southern African region

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries have mobile markets ranging from one of the world's largest GSM networks to fledging new services. Market structures, the extent of competition and the scope of regulation also vary widely. South Africa dominates regional cellular development with over 90% of SADCs nearly three million subscribers. Major factors driving cellular growth are:

• 1.Substitution for fixed line for customers on waiting lists.
• 2.The attractiveness of “prepaid”, especially for people without credit options.
• 3.The potential for roaming.

Regulation has been light-handed and not consistent across the region, missing a number of opportunities to boost mobile cellular access through license conditions, competition and tariff limitations. If all tariffs fell to the lowest level in the region, then the number of subscribers (excluding South Africa) by the year 2005 could be nearly four times the estimate at current tariffs. With the effective regulation and market stimulation, the region's mobile subscribers could exceed the number of fixed subscribers in only a few years.     

Economic implications of a co-investment scheme for FTTH/PON architectures

Due to the high costs associated with the deployment of the passive infrastructure of FTTH networks, a few alternative operators have pondered the possibility of making co-investments based on a network sharing model. The purpose of this article is to explore economic aspects of a co-investment scheme for present and future FTTH/PON architectures. The article describes the cost reductions that can be achieved when a co-investment scheme is used, as well as the relationship between market shares and the cost per home connected. A cost model was employed to calculate the investment per home passed and the investment per home connected. The investment per home passed for an alternative operator indicates significant cost reductions when a co-investment scheme is used. On the other hand, the results show that when the incumbent's market share is equal or higher than the total market share of all the alternative operators that share the network infrastructure, the investment per home connected for an alternative operator is higher than that for the incumbent operator. Moreover, to be cost competitive with the incumbent operator, the necessary market share that each alternative operator should achieve is much lower than that of the incumbent operator.     

Network effects in mobile telecommunications markets: A comparative analysis of consumers' preferences in five Latin American countries

It has been shown that the presence of demand-side externalities can induce the market to benefit the largest firms in terms of market share, usually named as network effect by the theoretical literature. On the one hand, macro-level approach in the empirical literature of network effects commonly use the assumption that a network's overall size matters more to consumers' decisions (global network effects). On the other hand, micro-level studies have suggested that social networks are more relevant to consumers' choices than the overall network size (local network effects). Based on microdata from five Latin American countries, we compare the choice of a particular operator over choosing the largest operator by individual consumers. Our research shows that country-level network size is one among a set factors that determine consumers' choices of mobile operators, once individual and operators' country presence heterogeneity are considered. We find that consumers' local network decisions are important for the choice of operator in the majority of cases considered, and that this result is conditional on the chosen operator's market share. Furthermore, network characteristics and consumer preferences, such as coverage, tariffs, and network importance also affect the choice of mobile network for the Latin American context.     

Net neutrality and market power: The case of South Africa

Net neutrality rules have been implemented in many developed countries, often in response to concerns over network operator market power and potential blocking or throttling of content. However, developing countries typically have significantly lower levels of internet penetration and usage. Market power in respect of internet access looks quite different given that mobile is the predominant means of connection and there are often three or more mobile operators. In South Africa, there is a quasi-monopoly in the paid satellite broadcasting market and broadband providers zero-rating content from third parties (such as Netflix) may bring about more competition. We test the main theories of harm arising in the net neutrality debate, including network operator market power and exclusion among content providers using data on the number of announced prefixes and peers and IP addresses and considering examples of bundling and zero-rating conduct by operators. We find that net neutrality rules are less likely to be required in South Africa and other developing countries and that strict enforcement of such rules could in fact hinder competition in markets for content, telecommunications networks and other related markets.     

Good intentions,poor outcomes: Telecommunications reform in South Africa

As the first decade of democratic rule draws to a close in South Africa, this paper reviews the telecommunications reform process in terms of the performance of the sector against the twin national policy objectives of affordable access to communications services and accelerated development to meet the needs of a modern economy. It critiques the implementation of international reform models which have in practice tended to emphasise privatisation at the expense of other reform mechanisms—including competition and, in particular, regulatory measures. It argues that this has impacted negatively on affordable access and has inhibited market innovation.This paper identifies the root of the problem as the market structure. Designed around the vertically integrated incumbent operator, it induces inherently anti-competitive impertives that demands a resource-intensive regulatory response. The regulator has often not had the statutory powers, and seldom the capacity, to circumscribe the behaviour of the incumbent so that it does not impact negatively on new entrants. Without effective regulation, the assumed benefits of liberalisation—including more affordable access through improved management of the incumbent and more efficient allocation of resources in the market through competition—do not materialise.The paper argues that developing country telecommunications markets demand more from a regulator than simply meeting the threshold requirements of transparency and predictability via so-called international “best practice” models. Such a limited approach will not be sufficient to meet the challenges facing most developing countries. The highly imperfect nature of developing country markets, and the enormous income disparities and inequities that exist, require strategic regulation. This is necessary to enable innovative service provision, especially to under-serviced areas, and to facilitate fair competitive markets that promote the viability of the new entrants needed to build the information infrastructure—the infrastructure necessary for a country's participation in the global network economy.Simply removing all market-entry restrictions, however, is likely to place an even more onerous burden on already-struggling regulators and is unlikely to contribute to universal access and other developmental goals. A new policy approach involving the fundamental restructuring of the market is needed to remove the anti-competitive incentives that exist in the vertically integrated market structure that generally accompanies privatisation in developing countries. While a more horizontally structured market will not remove the incumbent advantage entirely, it is likely to reduce the need for constant adjustment of anti-competitive behaviour on the part of the incumbent, freeing up regulatory resources for more strategic regulation towards achieving national developmental objectives.     

Estimating Consumer Inertia in Repeated Choices of Smartphones*

For a sample of 9,799 subscribers to a single mobile operator, we observe switching between mobile handsets between July, 2011, and December, 2014. We estimate a discrete choice model in which we account for disutility from switching to different operating systems and brands. Our estimation results indicate the presence of significant inertia in the choice of operating systems and brands. We use our model to simulate market shares in the absence of switching costs and conclude that the market shares of Android and smaller operating systems would increase at the expense of the market share of iOS in such a context.     

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Toward universal telephone access: Market progress and progress beyond the market

The last 10 years have seen an explosion in access to telephone services worldwide based on rapid technology advance in increasingly competitive markets. The mobile phone has driven expansion in subscribers and access, especially in the developing world. This paper estimates global mobile footprint coverage based on 2002 data and calculates that as much as 77 percent of the world's population may live in an area covered by a mobile signal. Nonetheless, many people remain without access to telephony. The paper estimates the maximum likely cost in terms of cross subsidy within the industry and outside financing for achieving universal access using competitively awarded subsidies to private providers in a reformed market. This upper-end cost is estimated at $5.7 billion, with costs that could not be supplied by a reasonable tax on existing providers (and so required from outside the sector) estimated at $1.8 billion.     

The Influence of Regulation and Disruptive Potential on Incumbents' Submarket Entry Decision and Success in the Context of a Network Industry

This paper uses the theoretical perspectives of disruptive innovation, network externalities, and regulation to study the submarket strategies of incumbent firms that operate in a regulated network industry. In this setting, the impact of potentially disruptive innovations might be different because of the tighter regulation of incumbent firms. By analyzing the entry and success patterns of incumbent mobile network operators (MNOs) in the public hotspot markets in 17 Western European countries, we focus on how regulation and network effects as well as disruption factors influence the incumbent firms' strategies. In doing so, this paper departs from prior research that has primarily focused on unregulated industries and combines contradicting explanations from disruptive innovation theory, the motivation/ability framework, regulation theory, as well as network effects to provide a comprehensive analysis on how incumbents behave in a regulated network industry that is being confronted with a potentially disruptive innovation. In particular, while disruptive innovation theory predicts that the incumbents' vast experience in an industry could cause them to avoid entering new submarkets created by potentially disruptive innovations, the desire to avoid regulation could encourage such submarket entry. Furthermore, in regulated network industries, incumbent firms might have a stronger motivation to enter new submarkets as the importance of single customers and high market shares could be substantially different. These contrasting insights are used to develop an integrative research model and to derive hypotheses on incumbents' submarket entry decision and success. Drawing on cross‐sectional, multicountry data of 62 MNOs that operate in 17 Western European countries, this study uses logit and tobit regressions to test the impact of disruption factors, regulation, and network externalities on the entry decision and success of incumbent firms. The results reveal that the incumbent MNOs are caught in an area of conflict between the regulated industry context and their international technology strategy. The findings suggest that the incumbent MNOs' motivation and ability to escape regulation positively influenced their submarket entry and success in the public hotspot market. Thus, the potentially disruptive scenario was successfully turned into a potentially sustaining one as the incumbent MNOs could enhance their presence in the mobile broadband market. The testing on a multicountry basis as well as the positive influence of ethnocentric technology strategies for public hotspots, which are devised in the headquarters' location and are then brought out internationally, shed new light on an industry that has typically been characterized by country‐by‐country decisions. These findings may also reveal challenges for future research on disruptive innovations in multinational industries and expose future challenges for regulative authorities and managers. This paper thereby adds to the theory of disruptive innovation as it includes the influence of regulation on incumbents in network industries. Additionally, this study expands on previous findings on the disruptive potential of wireless local area network technology by employing a multi‐country analysis in 17 Western European countries.     

Spectrum auctions in a thin market: The Korean case

In 2010, the Korean government adopted spectrum auctions and introduced a market mechanism into spectrum management. However, the government has often been confronted with conflicts between diverse policy goals of spectrum auctions. A thin spectrum market, where only three incumbent MNOs bid for spectrum, has led to concerns that the government may fail to maximize revenues.Based on the past experiences in Korea, this paper examines the Korean government's choice of auction rules in the face of conflicting policy goals. This paper also recommends that the government implement the following regulatory reforms and consider the auction related measures to deepen its spectrum market or increase the number of bidders: (i) relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions, (ii) introduction of regional or site-specific spectrum licenses, and (iii) modification of auction formats. Spectrum markets tend to be thin in many countries, and the Korean experience may offer implications for those countries when they implement spectrum auctions.     

Termination-discriminatory pricing,subscriber bandwagons,and network traffic patterns: the Taiwanese mobile phone market

This article studies network effects induced by termination-based price discrimination in the evolving Taiwan mobile phone market. An econometric model that estimates the effects attests to the formation of bandwagon behavior among network subscribers. It is shown that networks with a large subscriber base will recruit a disproportionately greater share of new users ceteris paribus compared with low-penetration operators. The strength of the subscriber bandwagon varies closely with the price differential of intra- and inter-network calls. Also, analysis of network traffic reveals that an average mobile phone user consumes considerably less inter-network than intra-network airtime; consequently, mobile phone use is largely clustered within respective networks and hindered from traversing others.     

The Liquidity of Property Shares: An International Comparison

This article investigates the magnitude and determinates of share liquidity over the 1990–2007 period in the world's four largest securitized real estate markets: the United States, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe and Australia. We document a significant and consistent role for market capitalization, nonretail share ownership and dividend yield as drivers of liquidity across markets. We also document significant differences in liquidity across countries and between property and nonproperty companies. Also striking is the lack of correlation among our three measures of liquidity across property firms and time. This supports the notion that share price liquidity is multifaceted and therefore reliance on any one measure of liquidity in empirical work may produce misleading conclusions. Although we find some evidence of a connection between liquidity and firm value, it is less conclusive than prior studies.     

Concentration of the mobile telecommunications markets and countries’ competitiveness

This study examines how the level of concentration of a country’s mobile telecommunications market affects its competitiveness. We created a unique database with information on 59 countries, which we used to perform several estimations including an instrumental variable approach to explain the degree of concentration in mobile phone markets. Our first and direct estimation shows that the higher the concentration in this industry, the lower the countries’ competitiveness. In order to understand this positive correlation, we provide two additional estimations. First, using an instrumental variable, we find that the concentration in mobile telecommunications market explains the use of information and communications technology (ICT). Moreover, we also find that the use of ICT is positively correlated with countries’ competitiveness. Thus, our results confirm that the mobile phone industry has positive spillover effects on countries’ competitiveness and demonstrate the benefits of policies designed to reduce concentration and market power in the industry.     

Disentangling the effects on OTT platform performance of three strategies: Pricing,M&As,and content investments

OTT streaming services have been restructuring the global multimedia industry, and there have been strategic actions and reactions among OTT players and traditional pay-TV platforms. This study found that Pricing and Content investments are key factors affecting market share and subscribership in global OTT markets, and M&As have positive effects on the two performance measures, although with less statistical confidence. OTT-specialized firms in the UK, Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea did not expand subscribers to the same extent as those in the US, but they were able to expand their market share in the UK and Germany while failing to increase it in the other three countries. Local OTT players, especially those in Europe and Asia, might need to be more strategic in coping with US-based firms’ expansion by materializing the positive interaction effects among the three strategies to increase both their subscriber base and market share.     

Regulation and efficiency in transition: The case of telecommunications in Italy

In regulating the telecommunications industry, the separation between network and retail functions, which is designed to countervail the market power of incumbent operators, is a relevant issue. Despite its importance, little empirical research has addressed the effects of such a separation. Accordingly, this paper provides insights into the consequences of the Italian communications regulatory authority's (AgCom) decision to impose this type of separation on the incumbent telecommunications operator, Telecom Italia. In particular, the studied separation is between the firm's network-related functions, and those used for provision of its communication services. The present research finds that the type of separation implemented by AgCom allows a provider to maintain the advantages of operational scale in its network structure without dampening competition in the existing market for communications services. The study also offers further empirical evidence on the advantages of a composite vs. translog function in analyzing the multiproduct cost structure of a telecommunications operator.     

Entering the mobile service market via mobile platforms: Qualcomm's BREW platform and Nokia's Preminet platform

The mobile telecommunication market has evolved from simple voice to multimedia services. In the past, the primary players in mobile services were local operators in different countries; international telecommunication vendors, such as Qualcomm and Nokia, were seldom involved in the mobile service market. In order to enter this market, Qualcomm and Nokia have separately introduced their mobile application platforms, called respectively BREW and Preminet. This paper examines how the two companies attempt to share the mobile service market through their mobile platforms and internationalized business models. This paper also analyzes their mobile platforms’ business models and their strategic implications.     

The disruptive potential of PWLAN at the country-level: The cases of Germany,the UK,and the USA

This paper analyzes the impact of WLAN technologies for incumbent MNOs based on an empirical cross-country study of the players in the public WLAN-hotspot market using the theory of disruptive innovation and theoretical extensions for the industry- and country-level. The main research question to be analyzed is whether and why PWLAN has shown a disruptive or sustaining impact trend for incumbent MNOs in the hotspot markets of Germany, the UK, and the USA in recent years. The results imply that incumbent MNOs and new entrants have taken advantage of the opportunity provided by PWLAN, but the market success of both types of players varies between the countries analyzed. Incumbent MNOs dominate in Germany but not in the UK and the USA. The reasons for these country-specific differences were further investigated, and the results suggest that the analysis of disruptive potential in telecommunications needs to include country- and firm-specific factors, which are, again, largely influenced by the local regulation.     

User benefits and operator costs of mobile number portability in Japan and impact on market competitiveness

This paper aims to review the process of mobile phone operators agreeing to introduce mobile number portability (MNP) in Japan. A study group formed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications estimated the proportion of MNP users and analyzed the user benefits and associated costs to introduce MNP. Owing to the particular market structure and technology available, MNP was expected to yield a larger benefit in the Japanese mobile market than that seen in other countries. Based on the results of the research reviewed with respect to the market situation one year after introducing MNP, the increased competition in the mobile phone market was onfirmed by decreasing call charges and a reduction in the share of the dominant operator.     

Economic analysis of the introduction of the MVNO system and its major implications for optimal policy decisions in Korea

This study analyzes the anticipated economic effects arising from the introduction of the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) system in the mobile communications service market. For the analysis, actual data (or estimated data)—such as price elasticity, the number of subscribers, traffic volume, rate, and access charge—were combined with an assumption about a competition scenario in the future market. Based on this analysis, consumer surplus, and change in the service provider's profits were estimated according to the type of policy that may be adopted for the MVNO system by the regulator. The results of the analysis indicate that consumer surplus appears to increase largely because of the reduction of the mobile service rate by the promotion of “service-based competition,” which occurs upon adoption of an MVNO policy in the mobile communication service market. Moreover, the introduction of an MVNO system into the mobile communication market seems to be socially beneficial regardless of policy type if access charges are set reasonably by a cost-plus or retail-minus method. In particular, in order to make sense of the introduction of a special MVNO, whether by the cost-plus method or the retail-minus method, the correct discount rate must be used in setting an access charge between the special MVNO and the significant market power (SMP) mobile network operator (MNO).