Economic growth,telecommunications development and productivity growth of the telecommunications sector: Evidence around the world

This paper studies the relationships between economic growth, telecommunications development and productivity growth of the telecommunications sector in different countries and regions of the world. In particular, this study assesses the impact of mobile telecommunications on economic growth and telecommunications productivity. The results indicate that there is a bidirectional relationship between real gross domestic product (GDP) and telecommunications development (as measured by teledensity) for European and high-income countries. However, when the impact of mobile telecommunications development on economic growth is measured separately, the bi-directional relationship is no longer restricted to European and high-income countries. This study also finds that countries in the upper-middle income group have achieved a higher average total factor productivity (TFP) growth than other countries. Countries with competition and privatization in telecommunications have achieved a higher TFP growth than those without competition and privatization. The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services is found to be a significant factor that has improved the TFP growth of the telecommunications sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).     

Behind the scenes of the telecommunications miracle: An empirical analysis of the Indian market

The paper analyzes the demand and supply characteristics of the Indian telecommunications market, with the aim of contributing to the debate on the effectiveness of universal access policies in developing countries. The discussion is supported by some empirical evidence derived from a small time-series-cross-section dataset, containing mainly information on the fixed-lines segment of the market. The analysis suggests that the price elasticity of demand for fixed lines might be sensibly higher than the levels usually found in developed countries, while the crucial role of income and other sociodemographic variables seems to be confirmed. The paper also studies the impact of cellular penetration on fixed-lines diffusion. The results suggest the existence of a (positive) network effect in low penetration areas, while substitution (displacement) seems to arise in the most developed ones. Finally, the paper analyzes the supply side of the market, to assess the impact of market competition on investment. Competition seemingly helps stimulating investment in the most developed areas, but does not seem to have a significant impact in the less developed ones.     

The impact of trade liberalization in telecommunications services: The case of APEC countries

This paper examines the impact of liberalizing the telecommunications services sector on investment and output in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries by estimating a system of four structural equations that takes into account the causal relationship between national income and telecommunications infrastructure. The degree of openness to trade in telecommunications is represented by a carefully constructed index that reflects a country’s trade and investment policy in terms of market access, national treatment and regulatory principles. One interesting finding from the empirical analysis is that the effects of trade liberalization depend on the risk rating of a country. In countries with relatively high risk ratings liberalization reduces investment in telecommunications.     

Telecommunications and investment decisions in the Philippines

This article is a rejoinder to the article written by R.J. Saunders published in the December 1983 issue of Telecommunications Policy on investment decisions in telecommunications. The author, in this brief paper, attemps to discuss the decision-making process in telecommunications investments described by Saunders and as it relates to the practical experience of the Philippines and other developing countries in a similar situation. Attention is given to how the national telephone programme in the Philippines is being developed. Efforts have been exerted to identify the similarities and basic differences of the Philippines to other developing countries.     

‘Mainline’ telecommunications infrastructure, levels of development and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of developing countries

This paper assesses the growth impact of telecommunications infrastructure investment in developing countries by subjecting country-specific data on mainline tele-density and per capita growth to a Granger causality test within a panel cointegration framework. The results suggest that growth effects vary widely across country groupings reflecting different levels of development. Mainline tele-density and per capita growth strongly reinforce each other for countries that are relatively less developed. The reinforcement effect is even stronger for emerging countries that can be identified by their higher than average growth rates. In contrast, there is, at best, weak evidence of bi-directional causal links between the two variables for countries that are relatively more developed. These differences in the mainline tele-density and per capita growth relationships suggest that investment in telecommunications infrastructure, with its potential to generate high growth return, may serve as the critical tool for driving the growth and development process forward in the less developed countries.     

Technological and geographic heterogeneity in broadband markets: The challenge for regulation

When the telecommunications industry was liberalised in Europe and North America in the 1980s and 1990s, it inherited a legacy of monopoly providers whose footprint was national or multi-regional in its character. The regulatory framework, particularly that adopted in EU member states, reflected this pattern of relatively homogeneous deployment achieved, in part, by decades of cross-subsidised pricing and universal service goals. Perhaps because of this legacy, telecommunications regulators have often adopted the presumption that relevant markets are national in character, unless proven otherwise Although geographically-variegated regulatory remedies have been permitted (even in the face of allegedly national relevant markets) and adopted in many member states, many regulators have never done so, and overly cautious thresholds for permitting geographically based forbearance suggest a continued bias towards presuming national markets and remedies. We find that this presumption of uniformity and the tendency to aggregate geographic markets together is not supported by first principles of antitrust analysis, although there may have been strong practical reasons to apply this presumption in the past circumstances of the telecommunications and broadband industries.On the ground, however, there has arguably never been as much heterogeneity across geographies and across technological solutions that provide effective ultra-fast broadband speeds. Both technological (i.e., product market) and geographic heterogeneity are likely to increase with the advent of mobile 5G networks. With their deployment, a cautious regulatory stance towards geographic variation and a cautious regulatory stance towards inter-technology or inter-modal competition may result in regulation that could exceed what is required to ensure effective competition and could instead distort the incentives to enter of facilities-based actors. This may also result in higher-cost and inefficient investment. A more geographically varied and technologically agnostic regulatory framework may satisfy the principle of proportionate and focused regulation—with the possibility that the locus of regulation shifts from the access network to bottleneck facilities such as fibre, ducts and poles.This discussion is especially germane when one considers the highly speculative nature of forecasts and projections about future demand, and the competing claims of proponents of 5G and fibre. While there is some scepticism about the performance of mobile networks, we note that pure mobile and fixed 5G services may have synergies in deployment, and that the idea of competing with residential broadband services is a core strategy of very influential large-scale industry actors. In terms of a future research agenda, regulatory decisions could benefit from much more research into the relationship between domestic and global bandwidth constraints and their influence on development of software and application, as well as much more quantitative research by academics on the drivers of bandwidth demand. The risks associated with promoting investment that results in large-scale wasted resources should also be central to the regulatory agenda.     

Telecommunications in the developing world : Investment decision and performance monitoring

The contention that there is significant underinvestment in telecommunications services in developing nations is supported by cross country data. The accepted approach to determining whether investment should take place involves: identifying unsatisfied demand; determining the least cost solution; and assessing whether benefits will exceed costs. The author draws upon the experience of World Bank involvement in telecommunications projects in developing nations and concludes that the trend in some developing countries toward increased investment in the sector will continue, furthering the goals of increased economic efficiency and improved social equity.     

Critical factors for the expansion of broadband in developing countries: The case of Peru

Many studies have been made on the diffusion and development of broadband, however there are few published studies on the critical factors for advancing broadband services in developing countries. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to understand and identify the critical success factors for the development of broadband services in a developing country context, using the case of Peru. In this regard, this study uses data collected from interviews with Peruvian telecommunications professionals, policy makers and regional telecommunication experts, which is supplemented by official reports and statistical data to determine the critical success factors for broadband in this country. The four factors derived are; (i) expand the availability of infrastructure, (ii) define a national broadband policy that aligns the interests of stakeholders, (iii) develop effective competition in the broadband market, and (iv) stimulate the demand for broadband services. Through a MACTOR analysis the authors found that the objectives of sharing infrastructure, the further deployment of infrastructure and the development of competition in the market for broadband services are those that generate the most divergence between actors. Additionally, the MACTOR analysis determined that no disagreement existed for the objectives related to demand stimulation. Thus, four proposals are offered for the development of Peruvian broadband. The results are relevant for academics and policy makers interested broadband development in developing countries and for rural areas of developed countries.     

On the role of telecommunications in development

Numerous studies document the relationship between telecommunications and economic development. The main types and relative merits of these are summarized. The paper argues that more of the same will do little to help promote accelerated telecommunications investment in developing countries as needed. Rather, the efforts should now mainly concentrate on conveying existing sector knowledge to governments and international agencies. The paper focuses on examples of simple, proven tools which can be used to supplement telecommunications project analysis for this purpose.     

Financing telecommunications for rural development

Evidence shows that there has been serious underinvestment in telecommunications facilities in developing countries (DCs). This article analyses the reasons for this neglect, and demonstrates that a major restrictive factor in the development of telecommunications facilities in DCs — particularly in rural areas — has been the absence of adequate foreign exchange financing. Through an analysis of three major mechanisms for financing investment — supplier credits, multilateral lending and bilateral lending — and of the policies of the major institutions involved, the article identifies those policies that will stimulate the expansion of rural telecommunications in DCs.     

Financing and other issues in telecommunications development

Implementation of telecommunications infrastructure throughout developing countries is a prerequisite to national development. The fundamental question, argues Dr Parker, is how can developing countries pay for the capital investment in the necessary telecommunications equipment. The need is to encourage an institutional structure that can stimulate innovative, lower-cost appropriate rural telecommunications technologies without imposing excessive risks on the national telecommunications monopoly. With sucessful models to follow, it will be easier to achieve consensus between developing country borrowers, international lenders and telecommunications manufacturers.     

Impact of telephone and satellite earth station installations on GDP : A model for rural areas of LDCs

Presents a method for estimating the impact on national development of installation of telecommunication facilities in rural areas of developing countries. A methodology developed by Hardy is applied to three groups of developing countries and a hypothetical rural region to estimate the impact on GDP per thin route satellite earth station installed over a ten year period. A logarithmic relationship between telephone density and impact on GDP per earth station is found, so that the impact per earth station increases with lower telephone densities. The model can be used to estimate the impact on national GDP of telephone installations and/or thin route earth stations in regions of low telephone density.     

Implementing policy on next-generation broadband networks and implications for equity of access to high speed broadband: A case study of Australia's NBN

Next generation telecommunications infrastructure is expanding and supporting rapid growth of broadband technologies and a digital economy. In this context, digital information and communications technologies (ICTs) are of increasing importance as a means for people to gain access to health or social services, employment opportunities, information and social networks. In this article we draw on our recent case study research to examine the policy (and politics) shaping implementation of Australia's National Broadband Network (NBN) and its likely effects on equity of access to high speed broadband (HSB) services. We monitored NBN policy and implementation from 2015 to 2018 through policy documents, reports, and media. To assess likely effects of NBN policy on implementation and subsequently on equity of access to HSB we: a) applied a framework defining four elements of equity of access; and b) analysed stakeholder views drawn from media articles and 22 interviews with experts on NBN policy including politicians, government staff, and industry representatives. We found that equity considerations competed with political and commercial imperatives during the rollout of the NBN. This resulted in positive and negative consequences for equity of access to HSB, with a change in policy and implementation in 2013 bringing greater risks to equity of access. The case study provides a framework for considering equity in the implementation of next generation telecommunications infrastructure and highlights the importance of considering equity in the evaluation of telecommunications infrastructure.     

Can information and communication technologies be pro-poor?

There is over 20 years of accumulated cross-country evidence on the link between telecommunications provision and economic growth. Looking at micro-studies from a range of countries including Bangladesh, Botswana and Zimbabwe, there is also some evidence that provision of telephony has a dramatic effect on the income and quality of life of the rural poor. This paper examines cross-country evidence to discover if teledensity (the number of telephones per capita) has a pro-poor growth impact—fostering increased average incomes while reducing inequality. It also examines the impact of telecommunications rollout on quality of life variables including infant mortality and literacy. It finds that, historically, telecommunications rollout has had a positive and significant impact on increasing inequality and little impact on quality of life variables. A reason for this is tested and preliminarily confirmed that rollout has (historically) only benefited the wealthy. The paper will then turn to emerging evidence on the role of the Internet in poverty relief and statistics on the access gap in provision between rich and poor, suggesting that this new ICT will also be a force for income divergence. Using the results of the cross-country analysis on telecommunications, the paper will conclude with a discussion of potential policy responses (such as sector reform and universal access programs) to turn telecommunications from a source of growth that also increases inequality to a source of growth that diminishes it.     

Estimating broadband diffusion in the EU using NUTS 1 regional data

In this paper we use panel data on NUTS 1 regional data for 27 EU countries in the years 2006–2010 to analyze determinants of broadband diffusion. We estimate both linear demand specification and the logistic diffusion function. We find that, after controlling for regional differences due to socioeconomic factors, inter-platform competition approximated by an inter-platform Herfindahl index has a significant positive impact on broadband diffusion. Broadband deployment is lower in countries in which DSL has a greater share in Internet access and it is higher in countries in which cable modem has a greater share in Internet access. Moreover, we find that competition between DSL providers has a significant and positive impact on broadband penetration. First, higher prices for a fully unbundled local loop connection, which represent the cost of providing copper-based Internet services, have a significant and negative impact on broadband penetration. Second, a greater incumbent share in DSL connections has a significant and negative impact on broadband penetration.     

Broadband adoption,jobs and wages in the US telecommunications industry

This article evaluates the impact of broadband adoption on wage and employment levels among the local exchange companies in the US telecommunications industry for the period between 1988 and 2001. Broadband is a general purpose technology and its adoption and diffusion is expected positively to impact wages because of the need for higher level skill in its deployment and usage, but can also lead to less human capital usage because of a scale effect. Using the extent of fiber adoption among the local exchange firms as a measure of broadband deployment, it was found that broadband diffusion within and between the firms over time has had a positive and significant impact on wage levels but its impact on employment has been negative. As broadband diffusion increases, with substantial scope available to do so given the low levels of deployment both among the local exchange firms studied and within the United States as a whole, the impact of such diffusion on enhancing wage levels in the sector can be profound.     

Developing the Internet: entrepreneurship and public policy in Ireland,Singapore, Argentina,and Spain

The Internet has not developed uniformly throughout the world. Data on 141 countries indicate that, after controlling for per capita income and installed telephone lines, cross-national differences in the numbers of Internet users and hosts have to do with favorable conditions for entrepreneurship and investment. We find little evidence that competition and privatization of telecommunications services matters. After examining international patterns of development for the world as a whole, differences between two matched pairs of countries are systematically compared: Ireland and Singapore, and Argentina and Spain. Patterns of entrepreneurship and public policy in each country are shown to have differed systematically, with distinctive consequences for the development of the Internet.     

Satellite data networks for national development

This article assesses the telecommunications needs of developing countries and the possibility of using satellite communications to meet those needs. Three primary technological factors provide a guide to this application: small inexpensive satellite earth stations can provide a solution to the problem of limited ground facilities; satellites can operate in a broadcast and multiple acess mode as well as in a conventional point- to-point mode; and, the capacity required to support a single interactive digital terminal is about 1000 times less than that required to support a voice telephone and abput 1 000 000 times less than that required for video transmission. These factors lead to consideration of new forms of national networks based on satellites, microprocessors and small earth stations which do not follow the North American model. These new advanced forms of networks can co-exist with conventional voice networks, and can provide a realistic alternative for consideration by national telecommunications authorities.